Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Shamone]

37 minutes ago, JREWING said:

gas and electricity bill is £400

Why?

[wherebee]

39 minutes ago, JREWING said:

June said:
After tax, Daniel brings in £4,100 a month. After paying our mortgage and our bills, we are on the line. We’re not living month-to-month or day-to-day, we’re living hour-to-hour. 
Our mortgage is £2,200 a month. Daniel also has to pay child maintenance support of £1,200 a month to his ex-wife. Our gas and electricity bill is £400. 

 25% of his post tax income to a woman just because she got fucked by him.  Slavery.

Child support is an utter disgrace.  Should be for one year, then nothing.  Would encourage a bit more thinking by women before getting up the duff.  "what about the kids" I hear.  Fuckem.  I would have always looked after my kids, but without child support laws I would have been able to save them from a female mindset upbringing, by demanding custody.  it's taken me years to unteach the damage done.

Child support destroys childrens futures.

[goldbug9999]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You also said that central banks would never raise interest rates when I said they would on another thread in 2020. 

Yes I was wrong about that but even though they have it has not triggered of the usual consequences of doing so, the much talked about BK for instance, those that have predicting a BK have been wrong so far and (IMO) going to stay wrong for the foreseeable. I don't know whats coming either to be fair, my best guess is 2-5 years as we are, then extreme melt up (printing increases exponentially), followed by systemic collapse.

I don't know what form the systemic collapse will take, it might not even be an nominal collapse but some replacement of the $ with some new currency where each unit = $100 or something, a one off monetary reset the completely monetise away all current debt. Who the fuck knows really.

Edited April 13 by goldbug9999

[Calcutta]

6 minutes ago, wherebee said:

 25% of his post tax income to a woman just because she got fucked by him.  Slavery.

Child support is an utter disgrace.  Should be for one year, then nothing.  Would encourage a bit more thinking by women before getting up the duff.  "what about the kids" I hear.  Fuckem.  I would have always looked after my kids, but without child support laws I would have been able to save them from a female mindset upbringing, by demanding custody.  it's taken me years to unteach the damage done.

Child support destroys childrens futures.

Yeah he's fucked that up and agreed to whatever the botch wanted.

No way he'd be on the hook for 25% of his wages if he'd done his homework.

Mine ended up a fiver a week ffs.

[Heart's Ease]

1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Another good article in the Telegraph today. Not directly relevant to any particular share (other than G4 and Serco perhaps) but certainly relevant to the collapse of the UK:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/13/immigration-asylum-courts-home-office-rwanda/

 

 

A really illuminating read so thanks to Telegraph journolurkers for putting it out there.

As said in the last couple of weeks - 1400 years of history undone in less than 30 years.  Still got to get much worse before it can get better.

Edited April 13 by Heart's Ease
If all the productive haven't headed off to El Salvador by then with their bitcoin wealth being the golden ticket.

[goldbug9999]

36 minutes ago, Butthead said:

I'm not disputing the overall problem, but £400 per month on gas/electric and £200 per month on water are both extreme. Both can definitely be reduced just by being more thoughtful about usage.

There are plenty of people out there who have always had an attitude of "I earn well so I don't need to think about the small stuff, I just do what I want". They need to start thinking about the small stuff; energy efficiency, putting on a jumper, using the washing machine once per week when it's full, hand-washing dishes, ALDI and LIDL, yellow labels etc. It'll save them a few hundred a month.

Which is all great except that despite the frugality you are back to square one in a couple of years once inflation has eroded those savings, so what then ?.

[AlfredTheLittle]

31 minutes ago, Shamone said:

Do you work in pubic sector?

Nope but I've had plenty of boring and pointless jobs in both the public and private sector.

[SpectrumFX]

43 minutes ago, Butthead said:

I'm not disputing the overall problem, but £400 per month on gas/electric and £200 per month on water are both extreme. Both can definitely be reduced just by being more thoughtful about usage.

There are plenty of people out there who have always had an attitude of "I earn well so I don't need to think about the small stuff, I just do what I want". They need to start thinking about the small stuff; energy efficiency, putting on a jumper, using the washing machine once per week when it's full, hand-washing dishes, ALDI and LIDL, yellow labels etc. It'll save them a few hundred a month.

That £400 leapt out at me too.

Mine's £150 a month. I could get it lower if I was particularly bothered.

[Butthead]

42 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Which is all great except that despite the frugality you are back to square one in a couple of years once inflation has eroded those savings, so what then ?.

By then you've hopefully had a payrise, and your mortgage is a bit smaller, you've bought "stuff" that doesn't need to be bought again, so you can afford some higher costs elsewhere.

It's hard, but people make it artificially harder by wasting money each month. We can talk until we are blue in the face about the unfairness of immigration, property prices, interest rates, tax etc, but really all any individual can do is make the best of their situation. Cutting out wasteful spending is pretty much step 1 of that process.

[Long time lurking]

 

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/jobs/earn-salary-over-100k-but-still-feel-broke/

Our friends who live in a council house diagonal to us go on three holidays a year and have a brand new car. I had far more money as a single mum. I used to have my nails done, my hair done, regular waxes. That’s not even on my radar anymore. My last haircut I won as a prize in a raffle. I was so happy. 

Tick tock. 

this screenshot worth posting for psoterity.utter madness.it's incredible what theyve done to keep bennies/pensions flowing

15 years of zanu tory rule and they've pretty much crushed ambition for middle calss people.

me and mrs P have felt this(althought htyeve recently changed the rules on child benefit).any move from £50k to £60k was losing you £7k in tax and lost child bennie.

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

Yes I was wrong about that but even though they have it has not triggered of the usual consequences of doing so, the much talked about BK for instance, those that have predicting a BK have been wrong so far and (IMO) going to stay wrong for the foreseeable. I don't know whats coming either to be fair, my best guess is 2-5 years as we are, then extreme melt up (printing increases exponentially), followed by systemic collapse.

I don't know what form the systemic collapse will take, it might not even be an nominal collapse but some replacement of the $ with some new currency where each unit = $100 or something, a one off monetary reset the completely monetise away all current debt. Who the fuck knows really.

with all due respect,jsut because you're predicting a BK doesn't mean you're postioned for it.

I've been predicting a BK for years but we've been 90% long -at least -since the coof.

it does raise the discussion about what form the BK will tkae and I've noticed a few who contribute to the hive mind saying that they're open to either a real terms BK/a credit deflation/price inflation/bond market collpase etc or mixture of tehm.

I dont believe predciting a BK is mutually exclusive with being long equities or necessarily means you are net short either.I could well sit tight in BATS/BP/Shell etc through the BK.

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Napoleon Dynamite]

3 hours ago, Shamone said:

Why?

Probably bought a hot tub in lockdown.

Most I know that have done that are being slammed with Electricity bills now.

[AWW]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Well they’ve long gone from my area as well as the depots (I should think now the majority of the nation buys their milk from the supermarket)

But can they afford a house being a ‘milkman’ now is more the point I was making. 

We still have someone who delivers the milk. They just happen to deliver the rest of the shopping as well.

 

[AWW]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

this screenshot worth posting for psoterity.utter madness.it's incredible what theyve done to keep bennies/pensions flowing

15 years of zanu tory rule and they've pretty much crushed ambition for middle calss people.

me and mrs P have felt this(althought htyeve recently changed the rules on child benefit).any move from £50k to £60k was losing you £7k in tax and lost child bennie.

with all due respect,jsut because you're predicting a BK doesn't mean you're postioned for it.

I've been predicting a BK for years but we've been 90% long -at least -since the coof.

it does raise the discussion about what form the BK will tkae and I've noticed a few who contribute to the hive mind saying that they're open to either a real terms BK/a credit deflation/price inflation/bond market collpase etc or mixture of tehm.

I dont believe predciting a BK is mutually exclusive with being long equities or necessarily means you are net short either.I could well sit tight in BATS/BP/Shell etc through the BK.

 

Corrections happen. However, I've found that sitting in cash waiting for one quickly gets expensive in terms of opportunity cost.

S&P 500 annual total return for a century:

 

I spent a couple of years on £120k doing something a bit more interesting. We barely scraped by and the monthly PAYE bill made me want to smash the place up

Edited April 13 by AWW
.

[Chewing Grass]

18 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Remember if it falls by 55% it would take an approximate gain of 123% to get back to where it started - 8 years of 10% growth compounded.

It took 17 years for the Nasdaq to recover in real terms from its crash in 2000.

If you were invested in the Dow in 1929 it took 25 years for your shares on average to recover to their 1929 value and that’s in “nominal" terms, without adjusting for the effects of inflation or its opposite, deflation.

[SpectrumFX]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

100k sounds like a lot of money.

But It'll only take a decade or so of frozen allowances for inflation to push most of the middle classes into that trap.

[Funn3r]

21 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

This will wipe out investors - some people will never ever look at the stock market again. 

What else do you do with your money though, assuming you got an amount worth worrying about. Put it the bank and watch it dissolve. Also the chance of bank collapse/haircut/bail-ins. The 85k putative safety net probably wouldn't hold in a large-scale crash. There were people after the 1920s depression who refused to have anything to do with banks for decades.

[Calcutta]

3 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

What else do you do with your money though, assuming you got an amount worth worrying about. Put it the bank and watch it dissolve. Also the chance of bank collapse/haircut/bail-ins. The 85k putative safety net probably wouldn't hold in a large-scale crash. There were people after the 1920s depression who refused to have anything to do with banks for decades.

You ladder into the gold miners as the gold price starts to run, then keep enough in cash, and balls big enough, to pick up the other commodities when the arse drops out of the market.

Look at 2008, if you'd got in anywhere near the lows on the blue chip thread favourites you'd be looking at 500% uplift by 2011. Same goes for whatever happened in 2015. By 2018 most of the big lads had tripled from the lows.

The 85k is fine so long as you manage to move out of sterling cash and into equity by the time the s&p has been stopped at 20% losses for a couple of days.

In 2008 the market collapsed a week before Sterling did. Find that sweet spot and you win.

 

[Lightscribe]

7 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Yes I was wrong about that but even though they have it has not triggered of the usual consequences of doing so, the much talked about BK for instance, those that have predicting a BK have been wrong so far and (IMO) going to stay wrong for the foreseeable. I don't know whats coming either to be fair, my best guess is 2-5 years as we are, then extreme melt up (printing increases exponentially), followed by systemic collapse.

I don't know what form the systemic collapse will take, it might not even be an nominal collapse but some replacement of the $ with some new currency where each unit = $100 or something, a one off monetary reset the completely monetise away all current debt. Who the fuck knows really.

CBDC hint hint 

[leonardratso]

sup with btc, seems to be taking a good old drubbing

[AWW]

3 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

I have to disagree with this.

There are so many red flags and warning lights flashing. 

1. The Yield curve has been inverted for the longest period ever - 530 days + (always results in a crash). The longer the inversion bigger the crash. 

2. Overvaluations and p/e numbers are so unrealistic in a large number of companies

3. The Mag7 account for a large % of the gains - Nividia - earnings needs to grow at astronomical unsustainable levels to meet expectations. Even if NVIDIA was to grow earnings at 12% a year (possible), for the next 10 years it would already be 10x overvalued at today’s stock price.. 

4. There is massive leverage and lots of “unseasoned investors” who got into investing after Covid. “The rise of the Robinhood investor” and “day traders”.

The bubble has ‘sucked in’ so many new investors. Even I have got involved ! Classic bubble sign. 

5. Western / USA / UK Consumer debt is massive / maxed out credit.

6. Government debt and spending has driven GDP - not real gains - unsustainable and inefficient malinvestment.

7. Inflation and continuing high oil price / commodities. 

8. Geopolitical concerns - Gulf, China, Russia.

9. Liquidity starting to seek out supposed flight to safety - (BTC, commodities, $) 

This is such a massive bubble - I can see a 55% fall in real terms in the index from peak to trough. 

Remember if it falls by 55% it would take an approximate gain of 123% to get back to where it started - 8 years of 10% growth compounded.

It took 17 years for the Nasdaq to recover in real terms from its crash in 2000.

This will wipe out investors - some people will never ever look at the stock market again. 

You didn't look at the chart then

[Boon]

Must be something to do with Iran launching missiles?

These drones seem to be a bit of a decoy though? Why launch something that is telegraphed so easily?
Unless it is used as a distraction for a bigger missile behind it?

If it is true war then I'd expect all the markets to plummet Monday and gold to moon.

10 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

sup with btc, seems to be taking a good old drubbing

 

[AWW]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

If you were invested in the Dow in 1929 it took 25 years for your shares on average to recover to their 1929 value and that’s in “nominal" terms, without adjusting for the effects of inflation or its opposite, deflation.

And if you sat in cash from 2008 until today you got hosed in real terms and missed out on huge gains in the stock market.

We can all pick Windows that support our argument.

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Boon said:

Must be something to do with Iran launching missiles?

These drones seem to be a bit of a decoy though? Why launch something that is telegraphed so easily?
Unless it is used as a distraction for a bigger missile behind it?

If it is true war then I'd expect all the markets to plummet Monday and gold to moon.

 

hmm maybe, best check my 3x silver lad and my mstr 3x short mon morning