Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Alifelessbinary]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

If you were invested in the Dow in 1929 it took 25 years for your shares on average to recover to their 1929 value and that’s in “nominal" terms, without adjusting for the effects of inflation or its opposite, deflation.

But that’s the reason you hold a balanced portfolio, with some cash and gold.

While it might have taken 25 years to recover a lump sum 100% in equities. The following years were bumper returns so if you’d rebalanced your portfolio the damage would’ve been hugely reduced.

I agree that there’s a lot to be weary about at the moment, but I’m happy with the risks of being invested in a solid diversified portfolio.

We’ve already been through a few bear markets over the last few years. While I caught some cheap oil, I’ve done well mainly because I stayed in the market and continued to cost average in.

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Iran has launched multiple waves of drones at Israel. Attack ongoing. Israel says it will retaliate 

Oil to 500? 😂

[Chewing Grass]

7 minutes ago, AWW said:

And if you sat in cash from 2008 until today you got hosed in real terms and missed out on huge gains in the stock market.

We can all pick Windows that support our argument.

I was not picking a window to support an argument, I just find that period of history fascinating, the only investments I have are a pension and an extensive collection of 'interesting things'.

The interesting things however are not really a personal investment as I will be dead when they are sold, some are also illegal to sell unfortunately due to the world being run by woke tossers.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Iran has launched multiple waves of drones at Israel. Attack ongoing. Israel says it will retaliate 

Oil to 500? 😂

Somehow I find all this rather suspect, its night, how do they know its 500 and how was the most secure border in the world so insecure they could hop over on paragliders to kill and kidnap ravers.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Somehow I find all this rather suspect, its night, how do they know its 500 and how was the most secure border in the world so insecure they could hop over on paragliders to kill and kidnap ravers.

Funny how these things happen when the markets are closed.

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Funny how these things happen when the markets are closed.

bitcoins open

Edited April 13 by leonardratso

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Somehow I find all this rather suspect, its night, how do they know its 500 and how was the most secure border in the world so insecure they could hop over on paragliders to kill and kidnap ravers.

Well they're saying they've now launched ballistic missiles as well as drones so if that's true it's not funny anymore. Hopefully it's just the drones.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

Funny how these things happen when the markets are closed.

Bloody hell, you are right, correlation is however not causation and we should follow the official science as validated by the media and some slag at the BBC.

[leonardratso]

can you see the point that joe started selling?

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Well they're saying they've now launched ballistic missiles as well as drones so if that's true it's not funny anymore. Hopefully it's just the drones.

Aaah, unlike drones there should be big smouldering craters by the morning for Network TV consumption.

What are the rubber dinghy fuzzy wuzzy 5th columnists up to?

Edited April 13 by Chewing Grass

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Aaah, unlike drones there should be big smouldering craters by the morning for Network TV consumption.

What are the rubber dinghy fuzzy wuzzy 5th columnists up to?

Beats me. This could definitely go pear shaped though.

Ethereum down 11%< not sure what the rationale is for crypto to suddenly plunge due to war?

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Beats me. This could definitely go pear shaped though.

Ethereum down 11%< not sure what the rationale is for crypto to suddenly plunge due to war?

need the cash for gold

[CannonFodder]

Missiles will be laters if at all. They fly in a few minutes. The drones will take a few hours. 

For impact, everything should arrive almost together to overwhelm air defence.

Let's see.

[Noallegiance]

It's a bit odd. 

It's like doing this for 2 hours....

[AlfredTheLittle]

"Khamenei's war" causing inflation in the UK.

[Noallegiance]

NBC News claiming 100 drones, 12 cruise and 12 ballistic missiles being lined up.

Iran Revolutionary Guard officially claiming that Operation True Promise has begun and is partly punishment for Israeli crimes.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Missiles will be laters if at all. They fly in a few minutes. The drones will take a few hours. 

For impact, everything should arrive almost together to overwhelm air defence.

Let's see.

That was my thinking: 8 hours for drones, 2 hours cruise missiles, 5 minutes ballistic missiles.

But reports of launches from Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq now so this may not follow expectations.

[Majorpain]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

with all due respect,jsut because you're predicting a BK doesn't mean you're postioned for it.

I've been predicting a BK for years but we've been 90% long -at least -since the coof.

it does raise the discussion about what form the BK will tkae and I've noticed a few who contribute to the hive mind saying that they're open to either a real terms BK/a credit deflation/price inflation/bond market collpase etc or mixture of tehm.

I dont believe predciting a BK is mutually exclusive with being long equities or necessarily means you are net short either.I could well sit tight in BATS/BP/Shell etc through the BK.

 

Its inflation before BK IMO, its what they did last time, and the time before that, and the time before that.....  

When anything gets in serious trouble, the Fed fires up the printer and kicks the can again, so sitting in cash is not risk free either if you lose 50%+ of your purchasing power.  

I don't think they have lost control or its in their interests to force BK (wiping out the financial system that they control), anything replacing it is almost certainly not going to allow them to create money from thin air, a very neat trick.

[Errol]

Israel attacked Iran first by striking sovereign Iranian territory in the form of the Consulate in Damascus. 

Israel has nothing to complain or whine about. Iran is entirely justified.

[Errol]

Gold backed PAXG token trading at close to $3000 an ounce equivalent.

Edited April 13 by Errol

[CannonFodder]

Going to be carnage, trigger happy air defence and likely Israeli, American, Jordanian, perhaps British and french pilots flying about multiple countries trying to take pot shots on fleeting radar signatures. I.ld be surprised if there isn't friendly fire.

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Its inflation before BK IMO, its what they did last time, and the time before that, and the time before that.....  

When anything gets in serious trouble, the Fed fires up the printer and kicks the can again, so sitting in cash is not risk free either if you lose 50%+ of your purchasing power.  

I don't think they have lost control or its in their interests to force BK (wiping out the financial system that they control), anything replacing it is almost certainly not going to allow them to create money from thin air, a very neat trick.

The system always seems to come back stronger and meaner from every near death experience 

[leonardratso]

its ok guys, markyH has jumped in to save the world;

 

Edited April 13 by leonardratso

[Calcutta]

55 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Well they're saying they've now launched ballistic missiles as well as drones so if that's true it's not funny anymore. Hopefully it's just the drones.

If they're smart the drones will be to attract the air defenses then they launch missiles from all three sides and hit as many targets as possible on the first night. Close the Gulf to shipping and the world will be squealing for a ceasefire before what's left of Israel can retaliate. 

This is it then, WWIII just went live.

The British government have already proven themselves to be enemies of the people, but with the royal family having been ritually humiliated by the media there's nobody left to lead us should we need rid of the political establishment.

This country needs a real leader before the globalists drag us into their war.

Even Trump and Farage are compromised when it comes to the Middle East.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Cruise missiles in the air confirmed. So the firework show should begin in about 1.5 hours as drones, cruise and ballistic missiles all arrive within minutes of each other.

Fuck it, I'm going to bed. See you all in the morning, if we have one 😂