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In aggregate I agree, but drill down and there is a really uneven impact from it: some areas of the economy are booming while others are getting hammered. We see similar here where people inflation protected are flat, people with big assets are rolling in it, and people dependant on wages only are getting slowly crushed.

Government spending is largely offsetting the Fed’s tightening. Which I think is why inflation is sticky and the US economy hasn’t rolled over.

Its all about leads and lags IMO. The real economy is slowing, while financial markets look set to roar higher for at least a couple of months on the anticipation of rate cuts. The Fed is going to have to choose which mistake it can live with, since a mistake is unavoidable: do they appear political by goosing a stock market rally with rate cuts and doom thier political independence, or do they continue to crush businesses etc by withholding a cut from the real economy? Market pricing implies the first cut comes in September, which would both fit with the idiom of the first actual cut being bearish if the melt-up runs its course by then and gives the fed political cover to cut if stocks have already peaked and the real economy is in obvious recession. The issue with all that is that if they wait until September then the real economy is going to really get hit hard, and that will likely smash asset prices. Commercial real estate (ie office towers in cities) in the US is already seeing 80% losses. I am with you about this time being painful but manageable, and the end of the decade being a genuine depression though. The difference is that this time 80% haircuts will bring liquid bids, at the end of the decade I could see things going "no bid" at any price - eg at some point during the Wiemar Republic whole blocks of flats in Berlin could be bought for 1 oz gold.

The azzy game is dead at the minute, and I mean dead. Not only are enquiries down but the conversion rate has gone from about 80% turning into jobs to 80% being Messers with no intention of spending any money. This is our busy period and it's just tumbleweeds. Not sure what, if any, wider conclusions can be drawn from that, but I'd say it means people are cutting back on discretionary projects. I've got a mate asking me if I'm interested in flipping houses with him and I'm giving it serious thought, God forgive me 😂

Hunter's point is that they will print their way out but their policy response will be delayed given the rhetoric of 'not doing any more QE'. With the leverage in the system the bust and market crash will be swift. Add that to a delayed policy response and there's certainly room for big market repricing.

Yeah. I don’t really see the 80% bust. I think they can print their way out which will invariably lead to a second wave of inflation . It’s the one after that where I think that option will be off the table and it could get bad.

What have you boys been drinking... Hunters event is an 80% sell off, lasting 6 to 9 months. It's a GFC, dotcom bust, even a covid sell off type event. We may get some high profile scalps or forced mergers but any nationalisation will be similar to the state taking bank stock in the GFC. Just like the other events we get massive state intervention, creating the next wave of inflation and pushing us further along the path of fiscal dominance and into financial repression. And that's if everything goes all at once. Many commentators, like Lynn, think it'll be more wave like as some market segments crash or segments crash in sequence.

'I had no choice but to get a 35-year mortgage' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn3dded32j2o Nicola Webb, a 34-year-old nurse, felt she had little choice but to opt for an ultra-long mortgage when purchasing her first home last year. It's set to end when she is 68, but she says stretching out the repayments is "the only way I can just about afford my mortgage as a single homeowner". “I've not known lower mortgage rates so I just accept what it is.” Despite the fact that she managed to save a chunky deposit for her £147,000 two-bedroom flat in Gloucestershire, Nicola's five-year fixed rate mortgage costs £598 a month - about a third of her monthly wages after tax and student loan deductions. Once her student loan is paid off - or eventually written off - she hopes to reduce the length of her mortgage term from 35 years, or look at using any extra disposable income to overpay it. She says she's grateful she has been able to get on the housing ladder at all. While mortgage costs take up a large part of her income, she thinks it is still cheaper than renting in her local area. "I was having no luck at all with renting... and for me it's all about trying to keep it as cheap as possible." 1500 take home for a Nurse???? She cant have been a nurse long or shes doing fuck all hours. Cant be sure who she is on register. AS a nurse she scan easily earn an extra 500/m take home, whcih she can throw at the mortgage. 5 years of that and there'll be 25k and 10y off the mortgage.

Unemployment up, politicians deflecting economic anger onto immigrants*, people insisting their house price hasn't dropped but that they can only get pisstake offers, people getting pay rises and realising they will still have to downgrade their weekly groceries, people abandoning central heating in winter in favour of heating one room or just wrapping themself up, vegetables that would have gone to animal feed not that long ago entering the human food chain. So thats where we already are, the bust will just amplify those trends: Widespread unemployment, politicians openly talking about racial IQ and racial per capita crime statistics, people bitterly complaining their house price hasn't dropped but that they have had to accept and complete on a pisstake offer, people radically changing their diets to stretch their budget such as eating porridge for their main evening meal on weekdays, house burglaries where food is taken and electronics etc are left as they are difficult to sell, open begging to be common, food banks to become the norm for the vast majority of people, getting mugged to become a routine experience even in provincial towns and people to carry the bare minimum as a result. *not intended as a pro-immigrant statement.

I look back to the 70s for possibilities on this. Strikes, rolling blackouts, 3 day weeks. I think there might be rationing. Stocking supermarket shelves is already problematic. Shortages of vehicle fuel. Fewer bin collections. I wouldn't be surprised to see riots in big towns and cities. Even right now for a radius of 10 miles around my home the grass verges and parks remain uncut and public areas are untreated for weeds. I think we go proper scummy for a while and the signs for me are already steadily building.

I think you can deceive the majority of the people all the time. And that’s enough and what they rely on. I know people with heat pumps still not understanding why they are paying £4K a year more a year… I know someone who has just paid £110k for an electric BMW to save on their <3,000 miles a year they do. And sent their perfectly acceptable Fiesta to the scrap yard….what a waste of energy and money. I know people who genuinely will never listen to Putin cos it’s “like listening to Hitler” I know people who think Labour will spend more on those in need and the NHS and that will help us. I know people who believe the FTSE at an all time high is a demonstration of how well it’s all going (although tbf that’s an increasing minority). Unfortunately for the majority the truth is just too frightening. And that is because the truth is our leaders (all sides, all countries) are corrupt, self serving and will take all our money and even our lives if it helps their personal wealth and power. And they will take everything until there is nothing left or we hide what we have left. The most frightening issue is there is no alternative vote for the common citizen The key is not to be a contrarian for the sake of it or trying to be clever….it’s just now about listening to all sides, researching well and staying ahead of the ‘deceived majority’

Its the norm, in my office there are loads of hire vehicles because ours keep breaking down. The smaller vans have fewer miles on them but any vehicle thats a Sprinter or 7.5 tonne have an amazing amount of miles on them.

Re how people see collapse take the rail industry as a starter. Track network renationalised when Railtrack/Network Rail failed - all the private rail contracts failed 4 years ago steadily being taken back into state control no new trains bought in five years, half of HS2 scrapped more to come no doubt. Progressive failure of private sector utilities taken back into state control is my guess while more and more spending goes on consumption (old people, fat people etc) and defence spending. Progressive restrictions on travel and personal freedoms while everyone drones on about the football.

well, DOSBODS including me has called 5 of the last 0 collapses, so I'm not sure our insights are that reliable...

Is it an outlier or are they extending the general fleet age to 10 years? It doesn't seem like long ago 3 - 4 years was the max you'd see for any sort of fleet vehicle for big firms

It's a 64 plate.

Seven hundred thousand miles?! What age is it? That's the sort of mileage the Yanks are pleased to achieve with their continent of a country

The roads are fucked and the water was undrinkable in Devon, it does feel a bit third worldy at the moment in the UK. At work I'm driving a van thats falling apart with over 700,000 miles on the clock. The UK is deteriorating rapidly.

How do people genuinely see a Dave Hunter style bust playing out over here, forget the money for a bit I'm talking societal, real life day-to-day stuff. I know there's a few light-hearted common themes we mention but the recent action has conversely brought the possible bust into focus for me

Be careful what you wish for.

Interesting [short] video on crash/pull-back probabilities:

You can temporarily deceive all people, you can even deceive some people forever, but you cannot deceive all people forever

Not really. You’d be down 15-20%, at the same time he did say buy Bitcoin as a hedge via the Grayscale trust when it was trading at around 50% NAV.

I think you're right, he's not well.

Yes, shame to see Hugh Hendry acting like teenager. I will always remember watching him on Newsnight in 2010, with the “noble prize” economist Joseph Stieglitz saying there was no need to worry about Greece. Hugh replied with “ Hello, … can I tell you about the real world “. Amazing. However, his other predictions were rather hit and miss. Eg recently he was very big on TLT, which then exploded.