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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Virgil Caine replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
It is a good question. In my area the District council elections are being counted today but apparently the PCC votes are not being counted until Sunday which presumably means overtime rates for staff. I can remember when all the local election results were counted and declared at least 4-5 hours after the polls closed. If one wants an example of declining public sector productivity look no further than the time taken to process election ballots. -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Yadda yadda yadda replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
It's not real is it? I presumed it was a spoof. They ought to have worked out how to answer that question if it is real. -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
reformed nice guy replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
There are about 6 million direct public sector employees full time equivalent. With that productivity decline we would need to employ about 140,000 more people this year just to get the same amount of work done. If they were all minimum wage, assuming about 28k cost then that's about £4 billion. They won't all be on minimum so call it £6 billion. With improving technology that helps productivity this must make the real decline due to employee competence worse. The quality of the new workers is likely declining,so you probably need 200,000 to keep up output, especially when you take into account the 50 year old NHS workers that are retiring with a lifetime of skill + experience -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
ashestoashes replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
obfuscate, obfuscate, must not mention the fed -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Pip321 replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
I am going to show my grandkids this fella trying to answer a question….its a great advert in why you shouldn’t do drugs. Fuck me….Ozzy Osbourne is more coherent 🤢😂 -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Yadda yadda yadda replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Why aren't they counting until Saturday? Is it so they can pay overtime rates? Should have sent them up to Sunderland and they would have had them counted by 3am. - Today
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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Ash4781b replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-public-sector-productivity-goes-bad-worse-ons-data-shows-2024-05-03/ “May 3 (Reuters) - Public sector productivity, a major shortcoming in Britain's economy, worsened in late 2023 and remained a long way off its pre-pandemic levels, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. Productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, fell 1.0% between the third and fourth quarters of 2023 and was 2.3% lower than a year ago. Public sector productivity measures the volume of services delivered against the volume of inputs - like salaries and government funding - that are needed to maintain those services.” The article seems to suggest the poor productivity is dragging out into other sectors I guess focus being on the NHS. I don’t know how fair the criticisms are as public services are probably being overwhelmed in part due to high immigration. Anyway they need / decided to keep the plates spinning with immigration fuelled GDP else debt becomes unmanageable. Unsure how Labour will look to fix this all? What a mess! -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Funn3r replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Similar with me. I just want to Get Rich Pronto and running out of road. Stupid as I already have more than enough money. I tell myself I need it to leave to the kids but truth is I'm just tight and have an ingrained fear of spending. That's what poverty childhood does to you. -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Bobthebuilder replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
I was just about to post the same thing, I am bloody retiring this year, all our investment goal and stages are very different. -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Funn3r replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
https://www.redbubble.com/shop/watch+and+learn+t-shirts -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Funn3r replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Ooohh you young ones! -
This popped up on my YT feed. It was an eye opener for me at least.
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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
goldbug9999 replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Good to see that the people in charge know what they are doing .... -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Mandalorian replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Over what time period? Less than 5 years and I'm not interested. -
The Big Short Time and Furnished Holiday Let thread ...
One percent replied to spygirl's topic in Property Prices & Economy
I think the devil is in the detail. They go on and on about airbnb but there are loads advertised through alternative sites. Do those count? What about those who are already let out? Is it only new to the market properties? -
The Big Short Time and Furnished Holiday Let thread ...
MightyTharg replied to spygirl's topic in Property Prices & Economy
A clever ruse to force house prices up. ”wishing to rent out a short-term holiday home for more than 90 days a year must apply for planning permission.” Restricting the number of days means that instead of buying one home to use for holiday lets for 180 days you will have to buy two for ninety days each. Forcing one extra family into renting or homelessness. The double council tax will also keep those dirty northerners in their place. No more temporary jobs down South - that double council tax will make it unviable. Pretty sound Tory policies really. -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Long time lurking replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Ziehan is laughable the shit he comes out with bares no logic whatsoever other than his demographics work which is right to a point ,the effects he claims is another thing ,but the problem is real for sure it`s why countries right across the west are importing new slaves on a huge scale He is a paid shill he`s a paid China expert economic adviser to the US government ,i think it goes a long way to explaining how badly the US`s actions on China have backfired on them -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Loki replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
TNS replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Think that's it, yeah. -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Long time lurking replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
It`s this that has lead to the USA`s decline same for most of the west compared to China as Chinas debt has generally funded infrastructure and Industry Chinas housing bubble /problem was resolved by letting the speculators take a hair cut ,is it a coincidence that their new drive is to massively increase social housing, which is the foundation of keeping wage growth low and the economy productive and profitable whilst simultaneously raising living standards The west have spent the last 15 years trying to keep the speculators whole at the expense of everything and everyone else -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
feed replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Ziehan is either a paid shill for the US int services/or maybe techs or just simps for them. i stop listening to him when he said he was leaving twitter because musk was an SA apartheid era white supremist. -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Animal Spirits replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
This one? -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
PETR4 replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
No it isn't. There are at least 10 moves of the same size in the same direction on that chart that just covers 1 year. -
Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
Long time lurking replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)
JMD replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy
Yes she's great at cutting through and analytically identifying the core risks for the investor. She comments that fiscal dominance will trump other economic issues such as higher/lower interest rates or demographics. Most commentators think an aging population in the West and in China will be a definite deflationary killer blow. But Lyn highlights that an aging population need not be particularly deflationary because it is the old who have most of the wealth and will go on spending it into the economy, on for example certain luxury sectors and on health care. Personally I've always thought the 'demographic timebomb' has been very overblown, for a start the MSM bang on about all the time and they are always either behind the curve or downright lying! As for China's demographics, how about they encourage all their young from the rural areas to migrate to the cities in order to replace the retirees? Tbh I don't know the numbers, but I suspect this and automation will give China at least many more decades of 'centrally managed' growth. ...Peter Zeihan would massively disagree, I used to be a fan, but I've long lost confidence in his grandstanding geopolitical appraisals.