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Compare his reception to that of the Western leaders who visited recently:

🫸-----🏻"Big Dave"🏻-----🫷🏻 If you know, you know 🐔😉

I’m not going to say anything about recent movements (everyone’s been bored to death with my PM ramping for 2024) But I shall repeat a well known big nosed analyst thread favorite… ’watch and learn’

Ah ta gotcha.

Sorry, you had to click through to see the whole image. It has broken below support, generally people have been waiting for the G:S ratio to decline in a proper PM bull run.

What's the noteworthy bit?

Further to the Burry news, the G:S ratio has done something noteworthy It seems like something big is imminent for PMs.

We refer to it as a BK but he sees it not just as a market event, but a global economic event. Massive economic bust would surely hit the real economy and associated businesses and value stocks as demand is greatly reduced, as much as the financialised one.

As someone pointed out on farcebook (she’s getting a real good kicking on there), she would also have got the tens of thousands chucked at small businesses in the convid.

Because he dodges bullets, Avi.

It is difficult, take my SHELL holding for instance, it could fall 50% and still be worth more than I paid for it. I haven't bought anything for quite a while now, just letting cash build up as interest return is pretty decent ATM.

Intersting find. QUite worrying as well given that at that age it's very hard to turn your life around by working/saving.I'd iamgine in the right area,she'd be eligible for a council funded old folks home if she has no savings. Hope I don't end up in that position at 68.sad.

I cant imagine why? The last sentence is pure 'no sh1t sherlock'.... 'The couple had been enjoying a lower tax value while their property was being rented out, thanks to 100 per cent business rate relief. When they reached retirement, the choice was made not to continue renting but to keep the cottage for personal usage. They were stunned to discover the annual tax of £1,800 is programmed to nearly double up to £4,000 by April 2025. This surge can be attributed to North Yorkshire Council's introduction of a 'second home premium' charge of 100%, in line with the Levelling Up Act (2023). In light of this heavy hike, Fiona pondered selling the place. She added: "It's going to cost an awful lot of money to keep the two homes."

I broadly agree. DH's predicted (massive) ~80% drop is for the broad indexes. The "magnificent 7" stocks have a combined market cap of ~$13T against ~$42T for the S&P500 overall, so they represent something like 30%. If those Mag7 stocks get slaughtered dotcom style (ie to almost nothing) then that would still leave ~$20T of pain to share around for the rest of the index to get that 80%. Just valuations of the Mag7 returning to anything remotely sensible in terms of P/E ratios would entail a significant drawdown in terms of the broad indexes, even the Mag7 going down to the average P/E of the NASDAQ would too. It really is a powder-keg.

The key is to set buy prices in that environment, watch sentiment and just do the best you can. My aim won’t be to buy at the bottom but to buy well. I have a dream portfolio for the long term….and my intention is just to try get it at value when others are crying in the street. Commods a great example of an area that over reacts. China is struggling…down 20%, then 2 weeks later oh, it’s all fine so up 30%. You are right though…timing won’t be easy….so I am watching at the moment with just one foot in the pool 😉

No one knows what's gonna happen MR Pip. Trying to time the market is impossible, especially during times of big falls, 2020 was a bloomin nightmare stocks falling through buy points before you even had the chance to react. I have no plan that I can trade at the moment, so I am just sitting on my hands again.

agree So if we do have a BK I see the growth/bubble stocks falling….but I still won’t want them anyway. However I then see the value stuff, EMs, telecoms, baccy, commods and even PMs being dragged down (albeit not by as much) and that is the opportunity. Infact it’s a great opportunity So (daft simple example) if I see the market drop 35% average with Amazon & Co falling 50% but commods eg BHP, Rio, down only 25% then the opportunity is the commods. So the growth stuff will be tempting because it falls the most but it’s the value stuff which will offer the best opportunity and bounce better afterwards.

Just like the commuting costs and unpaid time...

Because the co2 is offset onto staff (car tax bands, fuel etc) and therefore their problem

Because he is little

Which makes HR/ESG/Travel Admin very happy. HR type bods hate us travelling across the world for a meeting, staying in a nice hotel and expensing exotic food. And especially negronis. Because they can't have it: they have no excuse to go. Classic left wing ideology - kill off what you are too useless or lazy to get yourself. But face to face meetings are still priceless. I'm thinking of a recent one thousands of miles away where a more informal chat was had after the official meeting with the fucking cameras turned off. I could read their body language, flatter them, and try and not let my jaw hit the floor at the things they were telling me. You'd pay six figures in industrial espionage and risk a jail sentence to get what they told me and took back to the ranch, but try and tell HR that! The company your friend works for is hamstrung by that policy, believe me. In fact if I every get retired and focus on my core companies, I'd ask all of them about their travel policy, who controls the travel pot (needs to be in a revenue earning rather than a parasitic dept) and screen accordingly.

I bet work-from-office won't be subject to the same calculations...just the stuff they want to do anyway and need to justify. I have to say the melt-up seems certain. I also think the optics of cutting rates into a soaring stockmarket in the run up to an election are terrible for the future of fed political independence: one side thinks they have been done over and have to take control of interest rates whenever they get the chance to pre-empt a repeat, the other thinks the threats worked and will expect cuts on demand in future. I think Dave's big idea on the BK is a second wave of inflation where CBs have to choose to save their bond markets instead of their financial markets, they will then need a bust to justify intervention.

I was speaking to some people from a large (FTSE100) company today and they said that their travel budget was restricted not just by cost, but by CO2. They can no longer fly anywhere to do business.

Why’s he called “Big Dave”?