Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[jamtomorrow]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

Sorry, (perhaps i have missed a thread conversation/or just me being dim) but what might you be buying instead of oilies?

My filter is pretty simple, and riffs on the familiar themes from this thread (so I doubt any of this is "news"):

- sectors: energy, commodities, telco or "basic products"

- divis: *must* have a track record of sustainable divi yield - I'm buying primarily for income, and I want companies that are likely to pay an income. I suspect divis will come back into fashion with a vengeance anyway and this filter will turn out too conservative, but I don't have a better crystal ball at this stage (footnote: I was surprised at how discriminating this filter is)

- BK survival chances: market cap, debt profile etc

Non-oilies shopping list in no particular order: Anglo, BASF, BHP, Lyondellbasell, Norsk Hydro, Rio Tinto, SSE, Vodafone, Weyerhaeuser, Bayer, Deutsche Telekom, Dow, Eon, Heidelberg Cement, K&S, Lafarge, National Grid, Saint Gobain, Siemens, Telia, Telefonica, Nutrien, Mosaic

Won't be touching PM miners, plenty of exposure to PM prices through physical holdings already.

[DoINeedOne]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/14/damning-report-green-energy-is-the-worst/

[kibuc]

Wesdome comes up with 3Q production numbers that disappoint for the first time in human memory. Mill maintenance in August resulted in big drop in ore tonnes processed, and grades are also down from absurd 18g/t to 13.8g/t, resulting in 20koz production (compared to 25koz in Q1 and Q2 each). Annual guidance of 90-100koz not threatened at all but it's likely that I won't be beaten for the first time in years, a mid-point more likely.

WDO is obviously a fantastic company, very well run and with great potential in Kiena, but there's a risk that it's all been priced in already, along with specatular beats on production guidances. I wouldn't be surprised if these results brought a short-term correction.

[Democorruptcy]

I cannot believe I'm still buying more of these oily snakes, or is it snake oil? That's it now, I'm definitely not buying any more.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I cannot believe I'm still buying more of these oily snakes, or is it snake oil? 

Nah, fuck this shit, I'm done  

 

[leonardratso]

wonder if i can swap my nortehrn rock shares for BP

[JREWING]

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I cannot believe I'm still buying more of these oily snakes, or is it snake oil? That's it now, I'm definitely not buying any more.

At least you're still firing...

I'm stuck in the trenches at 10.25 and 2.34 respectively awaiting to go over the top and take a head shot.

You couldn't make this up. MKT caps destroyed in six months. Wish Looney would keep his gob shut...

[JREWING]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

wonder if i can swap my nortehrn rock shares for BP

I'll swap mine for your NR shares and I'll even throw in a bag of marbles in good faith...

[reformed nice guy]

We are still above March prices for most of my watchlist so I am still waiting for most of my ladders

Hopefully we will see the likes of Angloamerican at 1000, Antofagasta at 600, Drax at 140, Siemens at 90 etc 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, Panda said:

At least you're still firing...

I'm stuck in the trenches at 10.25 and 2.34 respectively awaiting to go over the top and take a head shot.

You couldn't make this up. MKT caps destroyed in six months. Wish Looney would keep his gob shut...

Just checked back, I sold all the RDSB in my ISA and SIPP at £24.17 on 30th Sept last year. The Lord smiled on me that day!

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

We are still above March prices for most of my watchlist so I am still waiting for most of my ladders

Hopefully we will see the likes of Angloamerican at 1000, Antofagasta at 600, Drax at 140, Siemens at 90 etc 

Drax was lower than that in March?

[Chewing Grass]

On 02/10/2020 at 09:49, Chewing Grass said:

Just this minute had a company email through, they are abandoning their lease on the 450 seat satellite office block they were in and moving everyone back into the mothership. The mothership had nearly 1500 seats pre-covid and now has 900 so that's 50% reduction in bum-count through a combination of binning people and normalisation of WFH.

Update, we have been told to remove all our stuff and shred anything else that wont fit in a single locker that is 35x35x45cm in size as the Co prepares for an agile office.

Welcome to the 21st Century and the minimalist working environment.

[leonardratso]

yeah, looney hasnt helped the case at all unless its deliberate for some reason.

 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yeah, looney hasnt helped the case at all unless its deliberate for some reason.

 

It can only be talking the price down so his mates can buy in.  Surely?  It's either that or he's out of his fucking mind.

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

Massive spike in the DXY. Wtf is going on?

 

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Update, we have been told to remove all our stuff and shred anything else that wont fit in a single locker that is 35x35x45cm in size as the Co prepares for an agile office.

Welcome to the 21st Century and the minimalist working environment.

Sounds like they want you to destroy the evidence, what have you been up to?

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/14/damning-report-green-energy-is-the-worst/

that used to 'Steve Bannon's website' ie, 'extreme right wing alert'

Apparently he did leave so dunno what influence he still has....I just get the impression he changes his POV depending on what direction the money tree is blowing.....

Edit: yeah run by the joos and proud of it, employ a 'token black geezer' and a 'token far east women' to make it look like you're 'down wiv da kids innit'  

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Panda said:

At least you're still firing...

I'm stuck in the trenches at 10.25 and 2.34 respectively awaiting to go over the top and take a head shot.

You couldn't make this up. MKT caps destroyed in six months. Wish Looney would keep his gob shut...

that's me educated for today, so this guy is Looney by name and looney by nature?

to be fair RDSB are down more than BP today......I think it's more to do with 'no stimulus package' at the moment....

[leonardratso]

ill stimulate your package  with my shitty stick in a minute.

Shell are starting to get on my tits with their carbon offset emails, apparently ive used 871 ltrs of derv since 2017 and theyve donated £9.14 on my behalf to grow some trees somewhere.

If that 871 ltrs cost be £9.41 then id be happy, otherwise GFY.

[Loki]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

you need to be in for the long term though, this approach is not for trading IMO.

It's not that.  It's just I could have bought more, buying later. 

"More is better. It just is" ~J. Clarkson.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Never regret or dwell on past decisions, because you always have more information afterwards than you did at the time. Make your decision, with the best available information, and move on.

Very good point!

[leonardratso]

who was it didnt like the wanky names of companies, hehehe;

avg:

0.671p

curr:*1.875p

rise:179.45%

[leonardratso]

pity i only bought £250 worth, ah well, could easily have done a ukog.

[nirvana]

just been watching a video on the new VW ID.3 - what a load o shite! Decent looking motor and I like the alloys but the software doesn't even work properly, absolute garbage 

It's interesting though that I'm reading in the news more and more car manufacturers are completely dumping diesel...

Here's the vid if you're bored.....

 

[JREWING]

2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

that's me educated for today, so this guy is Looney by name and looney by nature?

to be fair RDSB are down more than BP today......I think it's more to do with 'no stimulus package' at the moment....

Wouldn't surprise me if Exxon take's a look a BP as takeover bid. This price makes BP look very vulnerable.

Offers shareholders £3 a share.... Good business for Exxon.

Might double up to average down tomorrow if she goes sub 2...

Gonna be interesting tomorrow, maybe 2 is the psychological barrier where the falls go into reverse..

Divi wise BP and RDSB are roughly at the low level equilibrium. BP 1 to RDSB 4.5...