Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, Panda said:

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/united-kingdom/kistos-announces-proposed-admission-to-trading-on-aim-181189

Anybody looking at this stock?

Top sliced today.

Might take a dip in tomorrow. Worth a £10k punt?

Thoughts.

Could energy be the new Bitcoin? Especially as Argo reports they are using 31 megawatts to mine dem dere digits.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

HL yes, but the website - although I guess the numbers are the same.  That's some screwy maths whatever they are doing. 

I'd say it's a waste of time looking at UK shares on HL between 4:30pm and 6pm midweek. It's all over the place, often higher sell than buy prices.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'd say it's a waste of time looking at UK shares on HL between 4:30pm and 6pm midweek. It's all over the place, often higher sell than buy prices.

I see, thanks mate

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

 

She is cheap.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Centrica. I still have it 

I've still got mine. It is just sort of lying there doing nothing. In hindsight should have sold them to go into oil. However, they're going to struggle to lose much more money so I'll keep them as a reminder.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Errol said:

For those wondering about gold - apart from it being Comex options expiry nonsense, gold is also nicely completing the handle of a 10 year cup and handle formation (see below). It could retrace as far as $1700.

 

Must say I'm starting to run my slide rule over some goldies again after  selling some in early sept.Some are still way too high but I reckon the following might dip enough for us.

Big boys

Newcrest sub 18,Barrick sub 20

Medium size

Anglogold Ashantisub 20,Buenaventurasub 10,Hochschild sub 190(cheap cheap,have barely moved all year which says they're a bit unloved),New Goild sub 1.50,Osisiko sub $10

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Must say I'm starting to run my slide rule over some goldies again after  selling some in early sept.Some are still way too high but I reckon the following might dip enough for us.

Big boys

Newcrest sub 18,Barrick sub 20

Medium size

Anglogold Ashantisub 20,Buenaventurasub 10,Hochschild sub 190(cheap cheap,have barely moved all year which says they're a bit unloved),New Goild sub 1.50,Osisiko sub $10

 

 

I put a small limit order in for HOC at 201 this afternoon. Dipping a toe in there, if it triggers. Could well go a lot lower but I'll buy more if it does.

[Loki]

Interesting comment by the author of the Surplus Energy Economics blog

Quote

 

What you highlight here relates to some fundamental changes on the horizon.

The current system might be described as a ‘dissipative landfill’ economy. We produce huge amounts of ‘stuff’ in an energy-profligate way, and much of it ends up being thrown away very quickly. Taking plastic items as examples, these use energy both as materials and to power processes. The human input is limited to design processes, and small numbers watching the machines that are doing the work.

In the future, labour availability will remain abundant, but energy supply will not. The way forward under these conditions isn’t to carry on using energy to produce ‘stuff’ destined for landfill, but to leverage the labour input through up-skilling.

Instead of buying something mass produced using high-energy/low-labour processes, we might find ourselves buying lower-energy, more crafted products which last a lot longer.

The flexibility in the human input concentrates on skills. Instead of buying a cheap flat-pack kitchen table, for instance, you might instead buy one made by craftsmen. This will cost more to buy, but will last much longer.

I’ve been working on something along these lines, provisionally called “crafting the future”. The logic of “pile ’em high, sell ’em cheap” is losing its viability as the balance between energy and labour changes. Skills may be the key to making the best of this situation.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Massive companies bounce 25%+ and you all worry about one lagging by a small amount.The market will go where its going in its own time.The reflation shares have led the market up the last few weeks,my own portfolio is out performing the FTSE 100 by 2.3x since the March lows and actually hit the highest level its ever been today.Compare your portfolio to the indices over time frames.Trying to time and worrying about every move up and down is the mistake 90% of retail investors make.Relax,do something else,that way you avoid being whipsawed by the market shaking out all but the strongest hands in sectors that will run for a decade,with regular sharp pull backsalong the way.

 

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Massive companies bounce 25%+ and you all worry about one lagging by a small amount.The market will go where its going in its own time.The reflation shares have led the market up the last few weeks,my own portfolio is out performing the FTSE 100 by 2.3x since the March lows and actually hit the highest level its ever been today.Compare your portfolio to the indices over time frames.Trying to time and worrying about every move up and down is the mistake 90% of retail investors make.Relax,do something else,that way you avoid being whipsawed by the market shaking out all but the strongest hands in sectors that will run for a decade,with regular sharp pull backsalong the way.

 

 

 

DB, it has been magic! Thanks.

Repsol up 65% from my cheapest tranche. Petrobras 50%. RDSB and BP up a lot from most recent purchases. Telecoms showing real life. Miners down from their highs but still well up. Looking to add to them now. No intention to sell anything.

Edit to add that I would love to see them all fall again to buy more at bargain prices. Doubt I'll be so lucky but for me the bounce we have had is proof of the concept. 

[wherebee]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

DB, it has been magic! Thanks.

Repsol up 65% from my cheapest tranche. Petrobras 50%. RDSB and BP up a lot from most recent purchases. Telecoms showing real life. Miners down from their highs but still well up. Looking to add to them now. No intention to sell anything.

Edit to add that I would love to see them all fall again to buy more at bargain prices. Doubt I'll be so lucky but for me the bounce we have had is proof of the concept. 

I've been thinking about this.  If - and it is a big if - the Trump claims of fraud are proven correct before Christmas, and Biden is not pres, the response from the market would be, I suspect, heavily negative in the first reaction.  For a start, much less chance of war in the middle east.

I'm tempted to sell some oilies at the point where I think the fraud evidence is looking like becoming material (I fully expect us here on DOSBODS, because of the wide range of inputs, to be 24-48 hours ahead of the MSM).

I wonder if you'd get a 20% correction, be able to buy back in cheaper again?

[UnconventionalWisdom]

10 hours ago, TheNickos said:

well apart from that which shall not be named)

I'm down 47% in my LISA but up 44% in the ISA for said share.

[Bobthebuilder]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Relax,do something else

 

[Errol]

58 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Trying to time and worrying about every move up and down is the mistake 90% of retail investors make.Relax,do something else,that way you avoid being whipsawed by the market 

Agree completely. You establish your investment thesis, and buy accordingly. Ignore the noise. Buy when prices are low but also a little and regularly. 

[leonardratso]

never a truer word spoken, enemadale(yes) is doing for me;

ive bin chipping 20pence in every day... one day i may make it to £100 great british pounds.

 

[JREWING]

40 minutes ago, wherebee said:

 

I wonder if you'd get a 20% correction, be able to buy back in cheaper again?

I'm a gambler by nature. All in or nothing.

Took my profits this late afternoon. Top slice.

Will head to the casino doors tomorrow @ 8am.

Was/am balls deep in BP_RDSB.

If I'm wrong, f++k it. 12k for ten week's investing.

If I'm right. It's only money. Might not be here in 2030. If I am my only regret. Not lived/played hard enough.

Great thread. Learnt loads. Good luck old mucker's....

X

 

[DurhamBorn]

Spending review tomorrow.Interesting part will be to try to spot if they understand that the BOE fiscal monetising will end for a whole cycle soon.They need to get large parts of the state spending to go under inflation  for years while areas that are investment need to grow.

I think its likely they will delay big tax increases,but they might signal some.

 

[Sugarlips]

Lyn Alden:

”Gold continues to do what it has consistently done for decades: follow real interest rates inversely.”

 

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1331374332635983873?s=20

[Loki]

@Sugarlips that chart is excellent, more fuel for us stackers

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Beginning to think you're trolling...15k on a no name AIM oil stock? Nuts, being polite. And this is not a stock ramp type thread, I could have done that 50 times, LSE is the place for that. For me, this place is about the way, the philosophy, not the quick buck. Thats why I started contributing. Suggest you read from page 1 if you're serious.

Ah LSE, found it by accident about three months ago...glad I found this site first, as otherwise with all the good investment `advice` offered there I would be pennyless and living in a shed by now...like @panda is about to do when his plan backfires and his wife finds out he has spunked their life savings :-) :-) :-)

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Spending review tomorrow.Interesting part will be to try to spot if they understand that the BOE fiscal monetising will end for a whole cycle soon.They need to get large parts of the state spending to go under inflation  for years while areas that are investment need to grow.

I think its likely they will delay big tax increases,but they might signal some.

 

So for education purposes can you give a few policy examples and what how you expect the market to behave I.e increased roadbuilding=likely increase in IBST....and no, none of it will be deemed financial advice! :-)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

So for education purposes can you give a few policy examples and what how you expect the market to behave I.e increased roadbuilding=likely increase in IBST....and no, none of it will be deemed financial advice! :-)

The policy isnt really that important,its the fact it funnels money direct into the economy freshly printed.Watch for them trying to hold down spending on wages/services/soft areas and instead increasing spending on actually investing/making something.Thats whats happening around the world soon.Its subtle,but it means more money into things that produce,less to consumers,the backbone of econonomies.There will be some huge winners in the cycle in many areas,but the best way for ordinary investors like us to do ok/well/very well in the cycle is to de-complex things.We dont know who will win in the green energy space,but we do know as a whole it will need a massive amount of energy to get there for instance.Less carbon in the air or a slow down means millions more starve as crop yields go down,more potash needed etc.

 

 

[Noallegiance]

From a spending review warm up article:

"It's likely to mean a freeze on pay for much of the public sector, cut on foreign aid, tight spending limits for government departments and eye-watering levels of debt.

One former treasury minister described it as a multigenerational debt which will have implications for the rest of our lives in terms of what the British state can afford"

A few comments about likely minimal if any tax rises until next year's budget or even later.

Interesting from so-called 'new Tory MPs' (presumably red wall?) Making comments like "...our voters want something tangible they can see at the end of their street".

If by 'voters' they mean 'Dosbodders', then yes we do! Especially if one may own Ibstock stock!

[Loki]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Ah LSE, found it by accident about three months ago...glad I found this site first

Same here, when you read it within the context of this thread (which as i said elsewhere is all i have ever known financially), some of the posts are head in hands painful to read

[Loki]

AFC back in the blue today

17/11/2020

(Sharecast News) - Hydrogen power technology company AFC Energy has signed a binding agreement with BK Gulf, it announced on Tuesday, to support the immediate scale-up of manufacturing capacity for delivery of its proprietary 'H-Power' fuel cell system.

The AIM-traded firm said BK Gulf, a wholly owned subsidiary of Middle East conglomerate Dutco Group, is one of the region's largest specialist mechanical and electrical contractors.

It said BK Gulf would invest in a detailed value engineering process to further optimise the H-Power system's layout, and drive cost reduction, starting immediately.

Existing capacity would deliver several hundred fitted-out containerised modules per annum, to address future customer demand, with the first fabricated units expected in the first quarter of 2021.

"Today's agreement with BK Gulf is a further important step in cementing AFC Energy's manufacturing strategy aligned with the growth in our commercial pipeline and in bringing down response time and cost in meeting customer expectations," said chief executive officer Adam Bond.

"Dutco Group and BK Gulf have long been strong allies of AFC Energy in the region and with their leading engineering and fabrication capability, are an ideal partner in supporting a strong commitment to the growth of the Hydrogen economy in the Gulf region and world-wide.

"We look forward to delivering on our partnership with BK Gulf and in working with their team in taking our fuel cell system to market."

At 1152 GMT, shares in AFC Energy were up 7.11% at 24.21p.