Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

 

[DurhamBorn]

59 minutes ago, Starsend said:

What I don't get though is where have all these people gone? I mean presumably they were there and working pre-covid.

Is a combination of things? Brexit and their supply of slave labour being interrupted, older people getting a taste of freedom and deciding to downgrade/retire early? Seems to me that this isn't enough to explain the big labour shortages we're reading about - unless actual millions of EU slaves have gone home.

If it's caused by EU slaves going home then this whole thing is temporary. The Government will be getting angry calls from their mates at the head of big companies demanding they find them some more slaves. The Government will start scouring the world again. I predict that wages will be being screwed down again within a year or two.

 

I think its a mixture.The main one is benefits.Universal credit claims nearly doubled during lockdown.People now know why the towns are full of people every day because they dont work.Lots of these people will of decided they dont need to work,or a nice part time job will do.Or one in the couple work instead of two etc etc.

Then Brexit,there are less Poles etc who worked in the factories.

Then selling high value southern houses and retiring further north.Lots doing that.

Then lots of people who had some time off thinking sod it iv got enough im retiring.

In my own town it seems the older workers who were mostly hard working shift work etc are retiring.The young are mostly on benefits with boyfriends who work away sometimes etc but not arsed as they have the welfare backup.

Wages are going to have to go up,and i mean a lot,maybe 30%,and welfare is going to have to come down relative by a lot.There doesnt seem any understanding in government though,so it might need the BOE to stop printing.

 

 

 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its a mixture.The main one is benefits.Universal credit claims nearly doubled during lockdown.People now know why the towns are full of people every day because they dont work.Lots of these people will of decided they dont need to work,or a nice part time job will do.Or one in the couple work instead of two etc etc.

Then Brexit,there are less Poles etc who worked in the factories.

Then selling high value southern houses and retiring further north.Lots doing that.

Then lots of people who had some time off thinking sod it iv got enough im retiring.

In my own town it seems the older workers who were mostly hard working shift work etc are retiring.The young are mostly on benefits with boyfriends who work away sometimes etc but not arsed as they have the welfare backup.

Wages are going to have to go up,and i mean a lot,maybe 30%,and welfare is going to have to come down relative by a lot.There doesnt seem any understanding in government though,so it might need the BOE to stop printing.

 

 

 

We recently used a very big name rubbish removal firm to take the old kitchen away, lorry driver told me he's going through a new recruit pretty much every week. Workload to pay ratio not worth it Vs benefits of staying at home, on benefits. Disinflation has permitted quite a comfortable lifestyle for many Vs the alternative.

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Then lots of people who had some time off thinking sod it iv got enough im retiring.

In my own town it seems the older workers who were mostly hard working shift work etc are retiring.The young are mostly on benefits with boyfriends who work away sometimes etc but not arsed as they have the welfare backup.

U.S. perspective:

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Wages are going to have to go up,and i mean a lot,maybe 30%,and welfare is going to have to come down relative by a lot.There doesnt seem any understanding in government though,so it might need the BOE to stop printing.

 

 

 

It's getting interesting ref your higher wages call and also David Hunter's long term tlak of a move to socialism

On 12% of the vote ,a hard left candidate took over the Unite union-threats of withdrawing support from Parliamentary labour.

Uk political realignment becomes more likely.

key thing here is that noone votes in these elections.The only choice is normally between hard left or harder left.The actual membership is much more moderate.

Either way,it reinforces the rising wages/fiscal spending theme.

https://news.sky.com/story/unite-leftwinger-sharon-graham-on-course-to-become-unions-first-female-leader-pulling-off-surprise-victory-12389942

Unite has 1.2 million members and is the Labour Party's biggest donor. Ms Graham has previously said there will be "no blank cheque" for Keir Starmer if she becomes general secretary, but "if Labour do what they're supposed to do to defend workers they will have no problem with me".

[sancho panza]

26 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

We recently used a very big name rubbish removal firm to take the old kitchen away, lorry driver told me he's going through a new recruit pretty much every week. Workload to pay ratio not worth it Vs benefits of staying at home, on benefits. Disinflation has permitted quite a comfortable lifestyle for many Vs the alternative.

For a lot of people,the whole point of working is to buy a hosue,and have some choices.

Current house prices in msot of teh UK pretty much disincetivize working especially when UC/WTC mean you can do 16 horus a week and rent the same place as if you worked 50 hours.....................

 

[sancho panza]

End of an era :the never ending upside in office space ends in voids and non payers

Banks that are leveraged at 30:1 plus start looking at their belly buttons.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/08/24/end-of-the-era-of-voracious-corporate-appetite-for-office-space/

End of the Era of Voracious Corporate Appetite for Office Space

by Wolf Richter • Aug 24, 2021 • 52 Comments

Formerly temporary, now persistent work-from-home turns into slow-motion nightmare for office landlords.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

 

The longer this goes on, the less likely is any return to the old pre-pandemic normal, even as some bosses dread the possibility that the old way of managing people and valuing work may become obsolete.

But all that can be worked out. What can’t be worked out is corporate demand for office space, which has been sagging and pressuring the office sector of commercial real estate.

These companies aren’t going to default on their office leases and mail the keys to the landlord. That’s not the issue. They will continue to make their rent payments.

The issue is that these companies have put vast and historic amounts of office space that they lease but don’t need on the sublease market, trying to find tenants for it, and this sublease space comes on top of the space the landlords are trying to find tenants for. But when lease renewal comes, many of these companies won’t renew, and then it’s the landlord’s job to find new tenants.

Office occupancy, as measured by workers actually showing up at the office has fallen for the fourth week in a row, from already dreadfully low levels. Kastle Systems, which provides electronic access systems for office buildings, said today that across the 10 cities it tracks, office occupancy in the week through August 18 had dropped to 31.3% of the level before the pandemic (early March 2020), meaning that occupancy was down by 68.7%:

Office occupancy fell in all 10 metros, but fell by the most in the metros that had made the most progress with their return to the office earlier this year: Austin, Dallas, and Houston. Those three metros had already bumped into the 50% line, but now amid the resurgence of the virus in those cities, had dropped to the 45% range, which is still far higher than in the remaining seven cities.

Office occupancy in the metros of San Francisco and San Jose, which is most of the Bay Area and Silicon Valley, and in New York City dropped to the 19% to 22% range, meaning office occupancy is down roughly 80%. These metros are among the most expensive office markets in the US, and they have turned into epicenters for working from home:

Survey after survey has shown that working from home has become very popular among workers, and that it has become more popular the longer it dragged on, and that many people are willing to take a pay cut if that’s what it takes to keep working from home.

People have organized their lives around it, have bought houses to accommodate two offices, have eliminated the endless and stressful hours of commuting, and the expense of it, and they no longer get slowed down by office chatter and sundry annoyances, distractions, and worthless meetings, and they can get their job done faster, and sometimes better. And some of them have even used the extra time they’re saving to pursue a side gig.

And the benefits of working in an office, the camaraderie, if any, the possibilities (fraught with risks) of finding a date or a mate at the corporate coffee bar, the free gourmet lunches at some companies – all this is receding into the background.

The longer this goes on, the less likely people are willing to go back to the office five days a week, and the idea of going to the office two or three days a week may already be a stretch.

This is a red-hot job market, with “labor shortages” written all over it, and with recruiters aggressively plying their trade trying to lure employees away from one company and send them to another.

Employers are going to have to bend over backwards to attract and retain their biggest assets – productive employees – and they’re having to make room for what employees have gotten used to and have structured their lives around: Flexibility about working from home.  This isn’t going to get suddenly undone next February.

Some bosses are having a hard time with it, and have little enthusiasm for remote work, and they want their people back at their desks where they can be seen and monitored and “managed.” But in a hot labor market, they don’t have the final say in this. The employee does.

For landlords in the office sector of commercial real estate, this may be the end of the era of voracious appetite by businesses for office space.

Office markets, it now turns out, have been hugely overbuilt. Companies have for years leased office space, or even purchased and built office space, that they thought they might grow into some years down the road, but they never actually grew into it, and they were just warehousing empty office space for future use that now isn’t coming, or may be coming to a much smaller extent.

Sure, some companies will sign new leases to expand their office footprint, and new companies are popping up that rent office space, which is now getting a lot cheaper in places like San Francisco. And there will be many renewals, and some of those renewals, as we have already seen, will be for less space.

But the net effect is that there are vast amounts of unused office space out there. The latest and greatest office buildings will have little trouble filling their space if the rent is low enough, amid a flight to quality, though those lower rents might not have been planned for.

Over time, as long-term commercial leases expire, and as companies are upgrading their digs, the vacancies shift to older buildings.

That is already happening in Houston, the worst office market in the US, where the oil bust that started in late 2014 popped the magnificent office bubble. New fancy buildings have come on the market since then, and landlords are luring tenants away from older buildings, as vacancies have skyrocketed to 31% of total office space.

San Francisco is catching up with Houston, after having been one of the hottest office markets in the US through 2018. It takes years for this to wash out, timed with the expirations of long-term commercial leases, giving cities some time to think about alternatives for the vast amounts of aging and now unneeded office space.

 

[janch]

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

The Government will be getting angry calls from their mates at the head of big companies demanding they find them some more slaves. The Government will start scouring the world again. I predict that wages will be being screwed down again within a year or two.

There will be some more willing "slaves" arriving from Afghanistan and HK shortly.  Some, especially HKers will probably be hardworking and may take a while to cotton on to the featherbedding benefit culture.

[JMD]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im amazed at how much our prediction on this is coming true.My partner works for the council.Half of her bosses in her service have now put in to retire.Nice 18 months sat in the garden doing nothing,now dont fancy coming back.My partner is out in the community.They are hugely short staffed but cant get anyone.Advert running for months.Only once candidate was suitable,they need 12.They didnt turn up the first day.Younger staff leaving,pension isnt as attractive when the age is going to 68.

Myself,3 job offers today.3,in a day.All desperate for people,all nowhere near on pay.To top it off i even got a message from a company i worked for last year,i just ignored them.They had 30 new staff when i went there,two left now of those,in a year.

Down the road and up the road we have two new massive Amazon centres 2000 jobs between them,more over crimbo.They are now offering £1000 sign on bonus for pickers.Thats right,pickers.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-9922683/Amazon-offers-1-000-joining-bonus-new-warehouse-workers.html

The crap factories around here who used to treat temporary workers like shit now cant get any.Amazon pay better etc.The poles have gone home,and the new immigrants will never work a day in their lives.

I always enjoy the thread discussions about jobs (present and future). Employment is after all a fundamental driver both for the economic macro and the social fabric of a nation. But what i've found particularly interesting is my recent realisation that it's not all about the 'supply' - there is also a big 'demand' function in play here.

Ok,@DurhamBornhad raised the topic right from start of the thread, that benefits culture had destroyed the work incentive for many low paid workers. However, I had expected an eventual shift away from the benefits disaster as people were eventually encouraged back into work by government initiatives, etc.  

I still think part-time working will become the norm, UBI introduction, disruptive tech destroying jobs, lies ahead... But now realise that its more complex - i.e. i'd never considered that the actual demand for jobs would fall - and moreover, i think government will welcome this happening. The fall in demand is happening across all sectors - from drivers (due to low pay/conditions), to GP's (female gp's mainly want p/t role; males have big pension pots so retire at 50).

I believe governments will actually encourage this change in 'work habits' (might this be their 'low-key' policy sell?). I think it'll help them engineer wealth transfers (property, etc) from the older generation to say the millennials. Of course the government scheme(ing?) won't be transparent, no moving parts to scrutinise - nothing for detractors to attack/or for governments to defend!! Maybe just a vast nebulous property bond market, to help kick the can for next 50 years? ...Anyway fits with my held view that the property sector would be supported and not allowed to fail. Plus i really think there needs to be a government 'Grand Scheme' to help level-up/ease the pain/and offer hope to the masses - the bleak/moral(?) green crises agenda doesn't do any of those things... Just my ramblings, helps me sort my ideas, but welcome thoughts from others.     

 

 

         

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, janch said:

There will be some more willing "slaves" arriving from Afghanistan and HK shortly.  Some, especially HKers will probably be hardworking and may take a while to cotton on to the featherbedding benefit culture.

My brother lives there and its generally the older generation who have the right to come here, but the younger ones come will do so on the basis of the insane cost of living out there. (HK property bubble eclipses ours)
https://news.sky.com/story/a-hong-kong-familys-journey-to-the-uk-to-escape-chinas-crackdown-on-democracy-12324623

Someone doing well over there isn't likely to upsticks and move to Liverpool like the ones in the above article (he is a bus driver), and those who are well qualified and wish to leave will opt for somewhere freer than this totalitarian shithole!

[JMD]

7 hours ago, King Penda said:

Amazon won’t fuck about if that does not get staff they will put it up again and get recruitment guys in job centres.they have a rule that you can’t do more than 60 hours a week for more than 4 weeks in a row.I surpose they could bin that the pay is 50% more after 40 hours and double pay after 50.nights also pay more

I like the sound of that - proper over-time rates returning to the work place... what next i wonder, 'pro-rata' becoming a dirty word?! 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Starsend said:

What I don't get though is where have all these people gone? I mean presumably they were there and working pre-covid.

Is a combination of things? Brexit and their supply of slave labour being interrupted, older people getting a taste of freedom and deciding to downgrade/retire early? Seems to me that this isn't enough to explain the big labour shortages we're reading about - unless actual millions of EU slaves have gone home.

If it's caused by EU slaves going home then this whole thing is temporary. The Government will be getting angry calls from their mates at the head of big companies demanding they find them some more slaves. The Government will start scouring the world again. I predict that wages will be being screwed down again within a year or two.

 

That is a good question you ask. Its one major part of the 'missing EU workers' quandary that will never be covered or answered by the MSM.

Thing is its that that many EU workers were not only prepared to work for less money because many of them viewed their time here as transitory/temporary, but also the money these workers were regularly sending back home made their 'sacrifice' working away from home well worth it to them.

So partly its because since UK has now left the EU, many EU workers simply don't see a future in working here compared to the other countries in the EU where they can choose to work freely. However, must be said that substantial numbers were also gaming the UK job/benefit/tax system, by for example using self-employed status, cash in hand and other kinda legal tax dodges, etc.

I'm not seeking to blame the immigrants. Mostly its the fault of our feckless government - and for example, now UK has left the EU, IR35 has been implemented - meaning that it is far less attractive for EU workers to work here as they can't escape paying full rates of tax so easily.    

 

[sancho panza]

25 minutes ago, JMD said:

The fall in demand is happening across all sectors - from drivers (due to low pay/conditions), to GP's (female gp's mainly want p/t role; males have big pension pots so retire at 50).

       

Healthcare has major issues going forward.Not least the considerable chunk of healthcare workers who don't want the 'clot shot'.

Carers have been low paid(way underpaid-criminally so for decades,only available to employers due to EU),but for a lot of nurses/paramedics etc the 'pay to sh1t' has jsut got way out of kilter.Once a bunch of twenty somethigns realsie that saving hard for fifteen years to be able to get a 30 year mortgage is a waste of a life,then they reassess priorities.

NHS healthcare jobs are only well paid -suing the Pay/poo ratio- after 6/7 years,by which time you're hacked off with your career choice anyway.

via LS

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/24/staffing-shortfall-english-care-homes-drop-in-workers

Volunteers may be required in staffing shortfall at English care homes

‘Alarming’ drop in workers signing up, with many put off by requirement to be fully vaccinated against Covid by 11 November

An army of volunteers could be needed this winter to tackle rising staff shortages in care homes fuelled by the looming requirement for all care home workers to be fully vaccinated against coronavirus, providers have said.

One in five workers on the books of a care worker agency in Sheffield are declining the vaccine, according to Nicola Richards, the director of Palms Row Healthcare. She also reported an “alarming” drop in the number of workers signing up, with many put off by the “no jab, no job” policy. She has been unable to provide temporary staff to some clients in recent weeks.

The government last month calculated that in a worst-case scenario as many as 68,000 care workers – up to 12% – could be lost as a result of the decision to make vaccination a condition of employment in care homes. A more likely prediction is 40,000, but care managers say that even small numbers of people refusing the vaccine will impact services because rotas are already threadbare, with well over 100,000 vacancies in the sector.

A survey at the weekend of care home managers by the Institute of Health and Social Care Management found 58% of operators believed they would have to lay off at least some staff by 11 November based on current rates of vaccination. More than a quarter (28%) of the 681 care operators who responded said they had already lost up to five staff. Three said they had lost more than 20 each.

21 minutes ago, Hancock said:

My brother lives there and its generally the older generation who have the right to come here, but the younger ones come will do so on the basis of the insane cost of living out there. (HK property bubble eclipses ours)
https://news.sky.com/story/a-hong-kong-familys-journey-to-the-uk-to-escape-chinas-crackdown-on-democracy-12324623

Someone doing well over there isn't likely to upsticks and move to Liverpool like the ones in the above article (he is a bus driver), and those who are well qualified and wish to leave will opt for somewhere freer than this totalitarian shithole!

Australia/NZ/Canada are far more likely choices.If they go to Australia/NZ it'll be jsut like life in HK under the CCP.

[Chewing Grass]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

An army of volunteers could be needed this winter to tackle rising staff shortages in care homes fuelled by the looming requirement for all care home workers to be fully vaccinated against coronavirus, providers have said.

Volunteers equals vaxxed and unpaid, a businesses wet dream if there are enough of them you can trust.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

We recently used a very big name rubbish removal firm to take the old kitchen away, lorry driver told me he's going through a new recruit pretty much every week. Workload to pay ratio not worth it Vs benefits of staying at home, on benefits. Disinflation has permitted quite a comfortable lifestyle for many Vs the alternative.

Exactly right and what most miss.If you have two kids and one wage working 40hrs would get you a car payment a month more than someone not working.Dont have a car,pack in work,or have a £700 car.

Its the difference that matters.I have some data iv always kept from the wages in my first ever job.It was actually making lawn strimmers etc.The factory still exists.My first weeks wages at the time were 85% more than a single mother with one child not working.They are now 32% more in that factory.If you take out needing to run a car to get there and the extra expense,less than that single mother.

We have a situation where flogging on gets lots of people £350 a week,doing nothing gets them £280 with housing benefit.So really the NMW is about £1.70 an hour because thats the difference between doing nothing and working.

 

[sancho panza]

h/t kaplan

I saw the other day.Kinross(decl:long) on a P/E of 5

P/E ratios are the last figure in the screenshot.        MC                 Revenue                     Ave vol         EPS             P/E

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451179-gdx-gold-miners-priced-to-dramatically-outperform

Summary

• Gold miners are extremely cheap relative to the overall U.S. stock market and also cheap relative to the price of gold.
• Taken together, the current gold price suggests that the enterprise value of GDX's underlying NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index should be almost double its current level.
• While this largely reflects the level of S&P 500 overvaluation, it nonetheless suggests the GDX will outperform.
• Furthermore, the bright outlook for gold prices should allow GDX to perform well in absolute terms.

Gold miners are extremely cheap relative to the overall U.S. stock market and also cheap relative to the price of gold. Taken together, the current gold price suggests that the enterprise value of the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners' underlying NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) should be almost double its current level relative to the S&P 500. While this largely reflects the level of S&P 500 overvaluation, it nonetheless suggests the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) will outperform. Furthermore, the bright outlook for gold prices should allow GDX to perform well in absolute terms.

 

The GDX ETF

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is the oldest, largest and most liquid gold mining ETF which tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Mining Index. This underlying index has a market capitalization of over USD280bn, larger than the alternative markets tracked by its peers such as iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NASDAQ:RING), allowing investors more diversification. While both GDX and RING are dominated by Newmont (NYSE:NEM) and Barrick Gold (GOLD), their weighting in GDX is a combined 27% versus 39% for RING.

Similarly, GDX's top 10 holdings make up 63% of the index versus 75% for RING. This additional diversification comes at the expense of higher fees, with GDX charging 0.51% versus RING's 0.37%, although the high degree of volatility in both ETFs makes these fees largely immaterial except over the very long term.

Miners' Small Market Cap At Odds With Current Gold Price

The weakness in gold mining stocks over the past few months has seen GDM's market capitalization fall to just 0.83% of that of the S&P 500. This is still above the November 2015 low of 0.58%, but it is almost 50% below its long-term average going back to 2015.

Source: Bloomberg, Author's calculations

This may actually underestimate how cheap GDM is relative to the S&P 500. Gold miners have seen a surge in equity issuance over recent years and have repaired their balance sheets. While the average S&P 500 company has been racking up debt over the past few years, the average gold miner has been repaying it. If we look at enterprise value rather than market capitalization, GDM's share of the S&P 500 is just 0.77%, much closer to its record low of 0.66% in 2015.

 

Source: Bloomberg, Author's calculations

GDM's tiny enterprise value relative to the S&P 500 is at odds with the current gold price, which is now 70% higher than it was at the 2015 low. Even if we adjust the gold price for nominal GDP growth, it is still 35% higher than in 2015. Over the past decade, there has been a very close correlation between the ratio of the enterprise value of GDM relative to the S&P 500 and gold prices adjusted for nominal GDP growth. This should come as little surprise given that S&P 500 earnings follow nominal GDP and gold miners earnings follow gold prices. What is surprising though is the fact that GDM is currently trading almost 50% below the fair value implied by the correlation.

Source: Bloomberg, Author's calculations

Gold Price Outlook Is Also Strong Thanks To Low Real Yields

As I have argued most recently in "SPX: A False Sense Of Security Sows The Seeds Of A Crash," I believe the S&P 500 is to enter a bear market very soon which will see it lose at least 50% of its value. Such a move would be enough to raise the relative enterprise value of gold miners and restore the correlation in the above chart. However, the favorable outlook for gold prices suggests gold miners should perform well in absolute terms, not just relative to the broader market.

 

Source: Bloomberg, Author's calculations

Even after the slight recovery in gold prices seen over the past two weeks, the metal remains 17% below its fair value implied by the price of 10-year bond prices. I fully expect to see real bond yields remain deeply negative and gold prices to rally back to levels implied by the tight correlation with real bond prices, which would put gold at USD2,140 currently. If history is a guide, such a rally would translate into a 40% gain in GDX.

Balance Sheet Repair Pays Dividends

The balance sheet repair efforts undertaken by gold miners that began during the low gold price era of 2015 have paved the way for a recovery in dividend payments. As shown below, the decline in total debt as a share of total equity of GDM has moved inversely with expected dividend payments, which are expected to equal all-time highs next year.

GDM Estimated Dividends Per Share Vs Debt To Equity Ratio

Source: Bloomberg

As a result, GDM now has a dividend yield of 2.0%, which is a record 50% above the S&P 500. Furthermore, unlike the last period of rising dividend yields which peaked in 2012, a firmer outlook for gold prices and stronger balance sheets suggest that dividend payments will continue to rise.

GDM Vs. Dividend Yield Vs. SPX Dividend Yield, %

Source: Bloomberg

[sancho panza]

7 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Volunteers equals vaxxed and unpaid, a businesses wet dream if there are enough of them you can trust.

You'll get a lot of volunteers,you just won't get many who'll last more than a shift when they find out that clapping doesn't magically clean someone up and replace their incontinence pads,or clean/dress/feed/dish out meds/deal with falls of 10-15 patients during the morning routine.

Reality is that care work is the hardest,most demanding work in healthcare(I say that as a paramedic,way tougher than my job) and the govt have created a disaster totally of their own arrogant making.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its a mixture.The main one is benefits.Universal credit claims nearly doubled during lockdown.People now know why the towns are full of people every day because they dont work.Lots of these people will of decided they dont need to work,or a nice part time job will do.Or one in the couple work instead of two etc etc.

Then Brexit,there are less Poles etc who worked in the factories.

Then selling high value southern houses and retiring further north.Lots doing that.

Then lots of people who had some time off thinking sod it iv got enough im retiring.

In my own town it seems the older workers who were mostly hard working shift work etc are retiring.The young are mostly on benefits with boyfriends who work away sometimes etc but not arsed as they have the welfare backup.

Wages are going to have to go up,and i mean a lot,maybe 30%,and welfare is going to have to come down relative by a lot.There doesnt seem any understanding in government though,so it might need the BOE to stop printing.

DB I agree with all those reasons you mention for people reducing their work/not returning to work.

But i would add that the 18-months Covid(!?) lock-down, did introduce a very-very long thinking-time into peoples lives. Allowing 'thoughts' to maybe transform into actual 'plans' and then 'actions'... allowing dreams to become reality?

...Oh well, perhaps its just me being silly, but its something that i do like to believe happened - that the dreaded lock-down had some positive effect!! 

[No One]

On 13/08/2021 at 16:13, DurhamBorn said:

Not advice and DYOR ,but anyone interested in Brasil power companies, Cia Energetica De Minas Gerais (CEMIG) ADR ticker CIG is now at a ladder buy point.

As always Brasil direct stocks are risky and volatile,but they have been reducing debt,have plenty of cash to keep de-leveraging and have a lot of hydro assets and will gain from a weakening dollar.

 

 

I'm up 13.48%.

 

Mate you are a wizzard, thank you

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, No One said:

 

I'm up 13.48%.

 

Mate you are a wizzard, thank you

Another stock iv been buying is Subsea 7 ticker SUBC ,,market hates it,but macro is superb for it.Gains from oils cycle from here onwards,also from the closing of wells and also in a superb position to gain from offshore wind,both fixed and floating.Again is a DYOR for everyone and risky and could be smacked lower in a BK,but potential to double at some point during the cycle,plus some divs.

If i buy any more Orange SA etc il be moving in with Nirvana as a French citizen as well 

[Long-game]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly right and what most miss.If you have two kids and one wage working 40hrs would get you a car payment a month more than someone not working.Dont have a car,pack in work,or have a £700 car.

Its the difference that matters.I have some data iv always kept from the wages in my first ever job.It was actually making lawn strimmers etc.The factory still exists.My first weeks wages at the time were 85% more than a single mother with one child not working.They are now 32% more in that factory.If you take out needing to run a car to get there and the extra expense,less than that single mother.

We have a situation where flogging on gets lots of people £350 a week,doing nothing gets them £280 with housing benefit.So really the NMW is about £1.70 an hour because thats the difference between doing nothing and working.

 

I will soon be looking to go part time, house paid off money invested, not had a day off whole pandemic to illness, however in terms of life quality will reduce to 3 days , the more you work the more your taxed for increasing authoritarian and unfair principles and money being given to the old chums club.

[Noallegiance]

House of Lords - Quantitative easing: a dangerous addiction? - Economic Affairs Committee (parliament.uk)

[Popuplights]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Volunteers equals vaxxed and unpaid, a businesses wet dream if there are enough of them you can trust.

Fucking good luck with that.  I'm sure the kids will be rushing to volunteer to wipe arses and mop up piss. 

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Fucking good luck with that.  I'm sure the kids will be rushing to volunteer to wipe arses and mop up piss. 

They would if it was the only way they could get money.

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its a mixture.The main one is benefits.Universal credit claims nearly doubled during lockdown.People now know why the towns are full of people every day because they dont work.Lots of these people will of decided they dont need to work,or a nice part time job will do.Or one in the couple work instead of two etc etc.

Then Brexit,there are less Poles etc who worked in the factories.

Then selling high value southern houses and retiring further north.Lots doing that.

Then lots of people who had some time off thinking sod it iv got enough im retiring.

In my own town it seems the older workers who were mostly hard working shift work etc are retiring.The young are mostly on benefits with boyfriends who work away sometimes etc but not arsed as they have the welfare backup.

Wages are going to have to go up,and i mean a lot,maybe 30%,and welfare is going to have to come down relative by a lot.There doesnt seem any understanding in government though,so it might need the BOE to stop printing.

 

 

 

Or perhaps some finally realized that the more responsible/morally committed they were to an employer and/or society, the more they took the pi$$...so they have taken the view "If you can't beat them, join them"