Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hardhat]

Back in the blue on BP 

[JMD]

41 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Had a drink with a friend last year who's dad popped in for a few who is a electrician working more on the main power lines and we got onto the subject of EV's, he went on a rant about how fucking stupid and how the shitty old cables under the roads won't handle every one charging cars of of a evening

So fuck knows sure the government will fuck it up

I'm sure he's correct. But In which case i guess it will become another one of those worthy infrastructure spending projects.

I admit i am biased, in that i simply can't foresee the charging of cars parked on the street - envisioning the cable hazard 'triggers me'! However, i didn't realise that the batteries were so/too? heavy to exchange easily at petrol (or whatever they will soon be called) stations. 

Actually think these are interesting discussions, because it shows how many practical 'problem areas' there are to resolve. Funny how these areas are so under-reported by our journalistic 'community'.

[Popuplights]

25 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Back in the blue on BP 

Everything is on the rise this afternoon. Maybe I can start looking at second hand Cessna's? 

[Popuplights]

22 minutes ago, JMD said:

Funny how these areas are so under-reported by our journalistic 'community'.

It's essentially because journalists know nothing about nothing. How many time have you read an article about a subject you know something about? And it's complete rubbish. Apply this thinking to all articles, and you won't be far wrong.

[DoINeedOne]

31 minutes ago, JMD said:

I'm sure he's correct. But In which case i guess it will become another one of those worthy infrastructure spending projects.

I admit i am biased, in that i simply can't foresee the charging of cars parked on the street - envisioning the cable hazard 'triggers me'! However, i didn't realise that the batteries were so/too? heavy to exchange easily at petrol (or whatever they will soon be called) stations. 

Actually think these are interesting discussions, because it shows how many practical 'problem areas' there are to resolve. Funny how these areas are so under-reported by our journalistic 'community'.

It would work with lighter weight, posted this before in i think Vietnam you have scooters that just swap batteries over for fully charged ones

 

 

 

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

access to capital. In that the renewable companies will be able to access the capital, and the oilies won't. I think it's a fair challenge to the self reinforcement we are giving ourselves here and worth considering.

Absolutely worth keeping in mind in clown world.  

 

2 hours ago, JMD said:

I'm not an electrician, but would that kind of energy demand on street lighting circuits, even if using overnight trickle charging, work when there are 10's of millions of electric vehicles plugged in?

It's not as if each streetlight has its own cable either, they are daisy-chained.  So what load will be on the first 'link' in a chain of streetlights all pulling enough current to charge a car?  

I said it was absolute bollocks somewhere else on DOSBODS and got told I was wrong and couldn't be bothered arguing.  A normal streetlight bulb draws about 70 watts I think.  So let's a say an LED is half that, 35 watts of 'spare' capacity. 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I heard Marin Katusa say this on a recent Macrovoices podcast, in the context of access to capital. In that the renewable companies will be able to access the capital, and the oilies won't. I think it's a fair challenge to the self reinforcement we are giving ourselves here and worth considering.

What I can't get past though is the world collapsing first due to unsustainably high oil prices. And if they no one will lend to the oilies, they can finance out of cash flow which will be huge. This theory is predicated on 2 assumptions: 1) permananet demand loss and 2) no coming supply problems. 

Oops, bad form of me for not mentioning Marin Katusa as the source. He does seem a serious type of commodity analyst, though i did find the after-interview comments made by the macro-voices host interesting. I haven't heard a financial pod-cast host questioning the veracity of a guest before, reminding me that personal agendas can cloud thinking also (not saying that was happening, but just maybe Katusa is more focused on the industrial commods needed for renewable infrastructure?). 

Having said that, Katusa's point about 'easy' lending for the renewables was i think a powerful one. That's why i would include that factor into the other moving parts, namely Biden winning, political virtue-signaling, massive directed MMT, and institutional money exiting the oil sector. It adds up to a worrying emerging trend... But if our contrarian oil investment bet does work out, we will surely be 'well' deserving of every dividend and hyper cash-flowed capitol return coming our way!

[JMD]

1 hour ago, feed said:

Doesn’t have to be government infrastructure at point of charge.  Before COVID, I was hearing rumours that supermarkets where planning on investing in charging facilities in large out of town car parks.  As presumably they already have significant contracts with energy suppliers and if we do move to more of a grocery delivery service model, then presumably delivery fleet overnight charging. 
 

It's complicated isn't it. i.e. More home delivery will mean less customers visiting the actual store, therefore would charging facilities be that useful? Then again, i suppose 'every little helps', as one supermarket slogan used to state.

 

[AWW]

52 minutes ago, JMD said:

IHowever, i didn't realise that the batteries were so/too? heavy to exchange easily at petrol (or whatever they will soon be called) stations. 

They're only too heavy for people to change. I could foresee driving over a cradle that drops the battery out of the floor then driving forwards onto a machine that lifts a new battery into place.

Or, the machines we travel around in become smaller and lighter, more akin to a Renault Twizy or a BMW C1, with batteries that humans can lift and carry.

[feed]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

It's complicated isn't it. i.e. More home delivery will mean less customers visiting the actual store, therefore would charging facilities be that useful? Then again, i suppose 'every little helps', as one supermarket slogan used to state.

 

It is. It’s complete change in business model.  But I think it’s where we should be looking for the investment in infrastructure for EV’s.  Not central government or energy suppliers per se. and not household.  It'll be where vehicles congregate naturally.  I did here of one council thinking about it, to draw people into their park and ride. Obvious really, but I’d be surprised if they were nimble enough to do it.  

As per the supermarkets, I think they will invest, to either recharge their fleet or to draw in customers, and nationally the major players must be able to negotiate good energy costs.    
 

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, AWW said:

They're only too heavy for people to change. I could foresee driving over a cradle that drops the battery out of the floor then driving forwards onto a machine that lifts a new battery into place.

Or, the machines we travel around in become smaller and lighter, more akin to a Renault Twizy or a BMW C1, with batteries that humans can lift and carry.

I will have one of these for local use, however as they are homologated as tractors they are 'restricted' to 40kmh.

Polaris Ranger EV

https://www.polarisquad.co.uk/Polaris-Ranger-EV–Avalanche-Grey

[JMD]

26 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

It's essentially because journalists know nothing about nothing. How many time have you read an article about a subject you know something about? And it's complete rubbish. Apply this thinking to all articles, and you won't be far wrong.

Agreed. And the journo 'community' is getting worse. I mean have you seen the recent intake of BBC reporters, they fill me with dread... But why do they all insist on inanely grinning or making wild hand gestures at me - are they insane - don't answer that!

 

[DoINeedOne]

The Ami is already on sale in France, where its quadricycle classification means it can be driven by anyone over the age of 14, with leasing payments from just €19.99 per month with a €2,600 deposit

[Chewing Grass]

Here is the British made equivalent.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/i/383708124141

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

Here is the British made equivalent.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/i/383708124141

Fantastic on hairpin bends.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Fantastic on hairpin bends.

You won't be going fast enough to notice them...

[Option5]

4 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

The Ami is already on sale in France, where its quadricycle classification means it can be driven by anyone over the age of 14, with leasing payments from just €19.99 per month with a €2,600 deposit

Actually, in a city that is more than adequate for most of the people for most of the time. All they have to do is make sure it's not fighting for road space with Chelsea tractors.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

The Ami is already on sale in France, where its quadricycle classification means it can be driven by anyone over the age of 14, with leasing payments from just €19.99 per month with a €2,600 deposit

Does that also meant that people who are banned for drink driving can use them? I'm sure it is France where they have low powered cars for precisely the purpose of driving whilst banned.

The standard euro power cable suggests it doesn't draw down more power than a kettle whilst charging.

If I was a French 14 year old I'd offer to do at least a week of washing up in order to get one. Mowing the lawn too.

[JMD]

10 minutes ago, AWW said:

They're only too heavy for people to change. I could foresee driving over a cradle that drops the battery out of the floor then driving forwards onto a machine that lifts a new battery into place.

Or, the machines we travel around in become smaller and lighter, more akin to a Renault Twizy or a BMW C1, with batteries that humans can lift and carry.

Point taken. But these practical points are not being discussed - ie the automation you mention would i think mean having a common standard for the battery, size, etc, which hasn't yet happened. I just find it very strange how the infrastructure can be planned, let alone begun to be built, without some (very basic) basics being agreed by the industry.

Actually, i have for some time begun to dought the speed of infrastructure roll-out.|Issues like this only reinforce that view. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

You won't be going fast enough to notice them...

You don't need to go fast if it is unbalanced enough. Won't be as unstable as this.

 

[Option5]

12 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I will have one of these for local use, however as they are homologated as tractors they are 'restricted' to 40kmh.

Polaris Ranger EV

https://www.polarisquad.co.uk/Polaris-Ranger-EV–Avalanche-Grey

And if electric vehicles aren't your thing the Riversimple hydrogen fuel cell/supercapacitor Rasa car should be available soon.

www.riversimple.com

[JMD]

18 minutes ago, feed said:

It is. It’s complete change in business model.  But I think it’s where we should be looking for the investment in infrastructure for EV’s.  Not central government or energy suppliers per se. and not household.  It'll be where vehicles congregate naturally.  I did here of one council thinking about it, to draw people into their park and ride. Obvious really, but I’d be surprised if they were nimble enough to do it.  

As per the supermarkets, I think they will invest, to either recharge their fleet or to draw in customers, and nationally the major players must be able to negotiate good energy costs.    
 

Yes i do find the subject interesting. Actually, going beyond the EV discussion, I woudn't mind supermarkets becoming a larger part of the economy. Maybe they can take over from the failing shopping centers/high streets. Not an ideal solution i know, but compromise is important and they are private innovative companies (and which i think was partly your point?). So if were making government policy i'd favor supermarkets over companies like Amazon... just need to implement a decent corporate tax policy to help things along.

[JMD]

31 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

The Ami is already on sale in France, where its quadricycle classification means it can be driven by anyone over the age of 14, with leasing payments from just €19.99 per month with a €2,600 deposit

DoiNeedoOne, forgive me, but.. 'So what your saying is' we all should become more French? 

But seriously, i think its mostly about the different form of ownership, re the lease mentioned in the advertising blurb. I believe most new cars sold in the UK are under a lease agreement. But at the prices quoted above how would that company make a profit?

 

[Starsend]

Commodities are looking pretty cheap looking at the chart below which goes back over a hundred years.

Good write up of some of the available funds/etfs below although these are all US based, need to see what's available in the UK. Five listed all having differing makeups. I quite like the iPath etf as it has a lower expense ratio than the others and a decent percentage exposure to base metals which I'm underweight in. Fairly hefty 23% in grains though which I'm not so sure about.

The iPath exchange traded product takes yet a different tack on commodity exposure. Gold and silver combine to make up 17% of its portfolio, and base metals add another 18%. Energy gets a relatively small 28% allocation, and grain exposure comes in at 23%. Livestock has a 7% exposure, and other soft commodities make up 6% of the portfolio.

https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/etf/2017/07/16/5-top-commodity-etfs.aspx

[DoINeedOne]

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1328995962736570371