Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, No Duff said:

I listened and reacted the same when he explained the majesty of the BoE plan was simply to inflate house prices to make people feel wealthy and spend.  That was the extent of the intellectual awe of our betters.  FFS.

Time to take DBs lead and sniff around to see who the city white shoe boys are front running.

Sounds from DBs comments like the peak of the dot com bust where the money was not in more tech but Walmart and co.  Infrastructure and builders this time?  What else?

Sounds like the BoE is becoming a version of the European Investment bank, backstopping infrastructure companies in the government's favour. 

Maybe some funds will be used for a house building shock and awe as well as infrastructure plays. 

All good stuff for a general election.

after a year of jack shit i see that PRSR has started to move, its LANDG's build to rent crud with 25mill of shares taken by the govt @ £1.00 at IPO, im not sure if its a false dawn, but i bought a few for the 5% divi, wasnt much but ive had 3.5% out of them divi wise so far.

[No Duff (troll)]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

As you allude the solution to our problems is devising a monetary policy that drives V higher not lower.

But raising V from its sleep will have massive inflationary effects.  Absolutely massive.  Price and even exchange controls massive.  V is sentiment so hard to control other than brute force.  

You're right though.  Even back in 80's we ignored V by assuming it away into insignificance.  I grinned then as I do now.  It is why economics is essentially an art not a science, unless you assume the art part away!

Maybe we'll see the rebirth of economics from it's current sorry state but in an even more behavioural form.

[No Duff (troll)]

4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

after a year of jack shit i see that PRSR has started to move, its LANDG's build to rent crud with 25mill of shares taken by the govt @ £1.00 at IPO, im not sure if its a false dawn, but i bought a few for the 5% divi, wasnt much but ive had 3.5% out of them divi wise so far.

Thanks.  I'll get on it tomorrow.  Sort of thing I'm thinking of.  Pension funds, etc owning residential is bog standard in Europe.

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Thanks.  I'll get on it tomorrow.  Sort of thing I'm thinking of.  Pension funds, etc owning residential is bog standard in Europe.

i think NRR is commercial property equiv that DB favours for its fixed rate long term debt. Might be worth a look at both. I liked PRSR because it was a.shelled into by govt b.started pretty slowly and small and there wasnt a rush to build up huge debt c.linked to LANDG d.newish and unproven

d. wasnt good criteria, but i like to give things a chance, plus there were to be no sales, eveything built/acquired would be rented out residential by a corporate (not an amateur BTL) landlord.

https://www.theprsreit.com/

[No Duff (troll)]

Hilarious that these commentators are shocked by the voting in the last MPC meeting.  Like they all sat in a quiet room, no conferring, and did not share each others answers.  It's pure panto, designed to misquide, confuse or signal depending on circumstance.  Are they telling you to get ready for a rise or just prolonging that, to date, false narrative.  Could be either so totally meaningless.  Might as well throw darts at a board.  I couldn't be a financial journo and keep a straight face, but since they all seemed to have been sports journos or whatever in the past, maybe they actually take this shite seriously. 

[No Duff (troll)]

23 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i think NRR is commercial property equiv that DB favours for its fixed rate long term debt. Might be worth a look at both. I liked PRSR because it was a.shelled into by govt b.started pretty slowly and small and there wasnt a rush to build up huge debt c.linked to LANDG d.newish and unproven

d. wasnt good criteria, but i like to give things a chance, plus there were to be no sales, eveything built/acquired would be rented out residential by a corporate (not an amateur BTL) landlord.

https://www.theprsreit.com/

Pension funds owning large tracts of residential.  Gotta happen.  It's a win for the funds (nice alternative to gilts) and, in Europe, for the renters who get long term professionally run lets.

[No Duff (troll)]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

underlying problem-declining velocity.

Velocity declines with income inequality, amongst other things.  Which is what we've had.  And just giving yet more money to rich people just results in the purchase of more assets and asset inflation.  Another example of the inevitability of the zero sum game being played.  Only real economic growth changes things.  Without that, everything is just moving things around like some shell game.  Increase and/or give money to normal people, who have a "higher marginal propensity to consume" and V would rise.  And a rising V without real growth, gives you inflation.  It's like water in a pipe or electricity in a cable.  

[UnconventionalWisdom]

8 hours ago, Banned by HPC said:

Nothing i have seen over the last 20 years suggests they have the ability or competence to come up and then see through such an idea.

One way or another house prices will meet this money

We all know they have thrown the kitchen sink at maintaining house prices, but at some point they have to stop. Things are feeling like they are approaching breaking point and a next crisis may just be the thing that makes them change tact. 

I work for a small sme developing new tech for old industries (steel/nuclear) and new sectors such as robotics (aim industry 4.0). We've got young staff and are in the SE. If things continue, we'll have no staff.... Id certainly leave and I don't think anyone would join if house prices went up 10% a year again. Same for all the tech firms in London. We collaborate with a couple and the standard of living these well-educated guys have to put up with is shocking. Eventually, you say why bother...may as well teach English abroad or something. 

On top of that, if we all the money goes to the bank, there is no way out of the next crisis. 

But heh, we've been wrong when we thought they would have stopped HPI by now 

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Banned by HPC said:

Thing is what you are suggesting would involve the govt and BoE having a plan other than inflating house prices and giving people cheap money to buy Chinese shite.

Nothing i have seen over the last 20 years suggests they have the ability or competence to come up and then see through such an idea.

One way or another house prices will meet this money.

There has been lots the last few months that show a reflation is ahead.Government are moving to shared revenue on the railways,they are investing into a nuclear power plant because they can borrow at 2%.Trump is talking about massive military spending etc.House price are at the top  of a bubble due to interest rates and immigration.Both will be going in a direction that hurts house prices.By 2025 they will be down by very large amounts inflation adjusted.

 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

We all know they have thrown the kitchen sink at maintaining house prices, but at some point they have to stop. Things are feeling like they are approaching breaking point and a next crisis may just be the thing that makes them change tact. 

I work for a small sme developing new tech for old industries (steel/nuclear) and new sectors such as robotics (aim industry 4.0). We've got young staff and are in the SE. If things continue, we'll have no staff.... Id certainly leave and I don't think anyone would join if house prices went up 10% a year again. Same for all the tech firms in London. We collaborate with a couple and the standard of living these well-educated guys have to put up with is shocking. Eventually, you say why bother...may as well teach English abroad or something. 

On top of that, if we all the money goes to the bank, there is no way out of the next crisis. 

But heh, we've been wrong when we thought they would have stopped HPI by now 

hs2 is all about axcessing cheaper houseing stock in the north,if you can get the rats into there cage (londinistan) in under 90 minnutes .

[Band]

1 hour ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Id certainly leave and I don't think anyone would join if house prices went up 10% a year again. Same for all the tech firms in London.

But heh, we've been wrong when we thought they would have stopped HPI by now 

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/16310458.Average_Poole_house_price_now___317k_after_four_per_cent_boost_in_April/

 

How about beimg up 8.3 percent in a year

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

20 minutes ago, Banned by HPC said:

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/16310458.Average_Poole_house_price_now___317k_after_four_per_cent_boost_in_April/

 

How about beimg up 8.3 percent in a year

...Sickening !

edit: and this is what worries me, DB's predictions become true other that house prices tanking especially in the SE

[Band]

1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

hs2 is all about axcessing cheaper houseing stock in the north,if you can get the rats into there cage (londinistan) in under 90 minnutes .

Brum isnt the North.

[No Duff (troll)]

Reflecting on the latest Hammond/BoE thing, and ignoring the actual merits or not of it, it's quite right the govt does something to move the agenda on past an obsession with the Brexit vote.  They should have had the smarts and done it sooner to prevent the current vacuum.  It's a bit like a Friday night down town.  Stop still, worse go down, and you'll get a right kicking.  They should have seized, set, and ran with the agenda long ago.  That would have delivered more than piddling around with HTB, etc.  So lacking in imagination.  They could have been the light of hope against a negative backdrop of an opposition (including media) - "Investing for a post Brexit Britain" and all that stuff.  As politicians, they really are not very good.

[No Duff (troll)]

5 minutes ago, Banned by HPC said:

Brum isnt the North.

Is from down here.  For a start, they speak funny!😱

[AlfredTheLittle]

2 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Reflecting on the latest Hammond/BoE thing, and ignoring the actual merits or not of it, it's quite right the govt does something to move the agenda on past an obsession with the Brexit vote.  They should have had the smarts and done it sooner to prevent the current vacuum.  It's a bit like a Friday night down town.  Stop still, worse go down, and you'll get a right kicking.  They should have seized, set, and ran with the agenda long ago.  That would have delivered more than piddling around with HTB, etc.  So lacking in imagination.  They could have been the light of hope against a negative backdrop of an opposition (including media) - "Investing for a post Brexit Britain" and all that stuff.  As politicians, they really are not very good.

Lack of imagination is exactly it. I don't understand why people vote for politicians with no ideas and no imagination - if you're a politician without ideas, the only reason you could possibly be in it is for the power and for yourself. Like we saw with David Cameron, and we're seeing with Treason May, without imagination a politician is worse than useless.

[Band]

1 minute ago, No Duff said:

Is from down here.  For a start, they speak funny!😱

There is a large homosexual population there along with vegetarianism being rampant so they must be more part of southern England.

[No Duff (troll)]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

By 2025 they will be down by very large amounts inflation adjusted.

And significantly down in non-sterling terms?  USD, gold, etc?  Currencies is the ultimate shell game, apart from the feedback loop of import inflation and subsequently higher interest rates(?).   I should pull some charts to look at UK housing in terms of various currencies, including precious metals.

[No Duff (troll)]

8 minutes ago, Banned by HPC said:

There is a large homosexual population there along with vegetarianism being rampant so they must be more part of southern England.

Used to be in a regiment with southern and Brum units.  Meeting up was the funniest thing ever.  The banter was amazing and made it quite clear we were all 100% British.

[King Penda]

16 minutes ago, Banned by HPC said:

Brum isnt the North.

to a londoner everywhere after luton is north,have you ever seen a london map ?  after luton it simply says the north and there be dragons.....honest.

[Band]

1 minute ago, stokiescum said:

to a londoner everywhere after luton is north,have you ever seen a london map ?  after luton it simply says the north and there be dragons.....honest.

I've previously lived down south from 13 to mid 20s, they have not got a clue about the rest of England. My brother took 2 friends to Wales in their late teens, just before they got to the bridge him and his friend got their passports out asking the other lad where his was, he started shouting and cursing when realising he'd forgotten it!

[No Duff (troll)]

19 minutes ago, Banned by HPC said:

There is a large homosexual population there along with vegetarianism being rampant so they must be more part of southern England.

They take "refugees" down south but they must bring their own sponges!

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, Banned by HPC said:

I've previously lived down south from 13 to mid 20s, they have not got a clue about the rest of England. My brother took 2 friends to Wales in their late teens, just before they got to the bridge him and his friend got their passports out asking the other lad where his was, he started shouting and cursing when realising he'd forgotten it!

i can see the apeal of reopening offas dyke to be fair.

[No Duff (troll)]

7 minutes ago, Banned by HPC said:

I've previously lived down south from 13 to mid 20s, they have not got a clue about the rest of England. My brother took 2 friends to Wales in their late teens, just before they got to the bridge him and his friend got their passports out asking the other lad where his was, he started shouting and cursing when realising he'd forgotten it!

Classic.  But you do need a valid passport, with Welsh translation, and sponsor, and there are dragons so stay the eff out with all your naff latte sipping ways.  It's not for you guys.  Horrible place.  Trust me, you'll hate it.

PS: Bridge toll to end in December.  God help 'em!

[King Penda]

10 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Classic.  But you do need a valid passport, with Welsh translation, and sponsor, and there are dragons so stay the eff out with all your naff latte sipping ways.  It's not for you guys.  Horrible place.  Trust me, you'll hate it.

PS: Bridge toll to end in December.  God help 'em!

and dont fall out with the taffia,they have a big bridge to throw you off .