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sarahbell

Planning. Build on greenbelt

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This is like immigration.

How much green belt do we build on? When do we stop? Is there a defined number of houses or do we just keep on building until there is no space left?

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Pity they dont inform the plebs that there isnt a housing shortage just a whole lot of cheap printed money bidding up the price of the current stock.

Definitely a lot of housing that should be demolished and replaced however.

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4 hours ago, Tdog said:

Pity they dont inform the plebs that there isnt a housing shortage just a whole lot of cheap printed money bidding up the price of the current stock.

Definitely a lot of housing that should be demolished and replaced however.

A lot perhaps of this new build shite filling the Manchester sky.

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1 minute ago, sarahbell said:

A lot perhaps of this new build shite filling the Manchester sky.

No offence to any Mancs but i'd say Manchester could do with demolishing. Has to be the shitholest city in the North. :)

 

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23 hours ago, Errol said:

This is like immigration.

How much green belt do we build on? When do we stop? Is there a defined number of houses or do we just keep on building until there is no space left?

Concrete over the whole fucking thing as far as I'm concerned (in conjunction with halting all immigration).

11 hours ago, Tdog said:

Pity they dont inform the plebs that there isnt a housing shortage just a whole lot of cheap printed money bidding up the price of the current stock.

There is both.

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Concrete over the whole fucking thing as far as I'm concerned (in conjunction with halting all immigration).

There is both.

The reason people are priced out is due to QE and ZIRP ... without these in 2009 houses would have been sold for buttons .... then Funding For Lending along with Help to Buy sent prices crackers from late 2013 onwards.

These are the reasons people cant afford to buy ... without these there would never be a so called housing shortage which TPTB claim is the reason prices are absurd.

 

Edited by Tdog

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Tdog said:

The reason people are priced out is due to QE and ZIRP ... without these in 2009 houses would have been sold for buttons .... then Funding For Lending along with Help to Buy sent prices crackers from late 2013 onwards.

These are the reasons people cant afford to buy ... without these there would never be a so called housing shortage which TPTB claim is the reason prices are absurd.

Theres a lot of people around here having trouble with the logical concept of 'and' i.e. that for A to be true B AND C is required.

Edited by goldbug9999

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Theres a lot of people around here having trouble with the logical concept of 'and' i.e. that for A to be true B AND C is required.

In the run up to the peak of Labours bubble they were building circa 200,000 units per year .... and prices were utterly insane ... not once was there any word of there being a housing shortage.

But then lo and behold in 2009 when they dropped interest rates and printed like no tomorrow stopping house prices falling, and then when the Tory party done all they could to inflate prices there was all of a sudden a housing shortage. I believe even the lady who done the report for the govt claiming there was a shortage even admits this is not the case. (I forget her name)

I can categorically state the reason i am priced out is due to QE, ZIRP and Help to Buy along with Funding for Lending which sent price higher from 2013. Its most certainly not a housing shortage as i see hundreds of houses a week coming onto the market in a relatively small search area. 

Though obviously if people were allowed to build on any plot of land they could get there hands on without the need for planning permission this would also bring prices down.

Edited by Tdog

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11 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Its most certainly not a housing shortage as i see hundreds of houses a week coming onto the market in a relatively small search area.

You are confusing liquidity with supply. All markets have buying selling activity irrespective of whether supply is bountiful or severely limited. Its this same confusion which leads to dumb ideas like help to buy - "theres plenty of houses for sale, but people just don't have enough money to buy them".

I'm not saying you are wrong about the factors you list, I'm just pointing out that a shortage is also a necessary condition. Most cars and phones are bought with credit (yes a monthly handset + sim contract is technically credit) yet credit supply does not determine the prices like it does for houses, the reason being that supply is not artificially constrained.

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2 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

You are confusing liquidity with supply. All markets have buying selling activity irrespective of whether supply is bountiful or severely limited. Its this same confusion which leads to dumb ideas like help to buy - "theres plenty of houses for sale, but people just don't have enough money to buy them".

I'm not saying you are wrong about the factors you list, I'm just pointing out that a shortage is also a necessary condition. Most cars and phones are bought with credit (yes a monthly handset + sim contract is technically credit) yet credit supply does not determine the prices like it does for houses, the reason being that supply is not artificially constrained.

Im not confusing anything, the reason prices are insane at this moment in time is due to QE, ZIRP, FFL, TFS, Help to Buy and tax breaks for BTL.

Remove 1, 2 or 3 of these props (depending on the prop) from the equation and prices crash with the same amount of people and the same amount of property.

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35 minutes ago, Tdog said:

In the run up to the peak of Labours bubble they were building circa 200,000 units per year .... and prices were utterly insane ... not once was there any word of there being a housing shortage.

 

I think this is selective memory, down in my neck of the woods at least we've been told there is a "chronic housing shortage" for years, I remember Brown saying it and promising to build everywhere.

 

14 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

 Most cars and phones are bought with credit (yes a monthly handset + sim contract is technically credit) yet credit supply does not determine the prices like it does for houses, the reason being that supply is not artificially constrained. 

This isn't true. Apple would never release a £1,200 iPhone if credit wasn't freely available, as only <10% of the population could afford to spend that. Quite simply they would not manufacture such a handset if they weren't so reliant on the majority of their customers paying monthly.

Higher end cars are artificially constrained, they only release a certain amount to market even though they could manufacture 10x as many, to keep prices high. A good example is most 'special' Porsche models.

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6 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Im not confusing anything, the reason prices are insane at this moment in time is due to QE, ZIRP, FFL, TFS, Help to Buy and tax breaks for BTL.

Remove 1, 2 or 3 of these props (depending on the prop) from the equation and prices crash with the same amount of people and the same amount of property.

 

I think you will find this useful https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/and

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12 minutes ago, spunko said:

This isn't true. Apple would never release a £1,200 iPhone if credit wasn't freely available, as only <10% of the population could afford to spend that. Quite simply they would not manufacture such a handset if they weren't so reliant on the majority of their customers paying monthly.

I'm stating that credit does not create price increases through additional competition for non supply constrained goods. That is entirely compatible with the idea that credit availability creates additional market segments that might not otherwise exists (e.g. super premium products).

Quote

Higher end cars are artificially constrained, they only release a certain amount to market even though they could manufacture 10x as many, to keep prices high.

Indeed and that essentially proves my point. Thanks.

 

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10 minutes ago, spunko said:

I think this is selective memory, down in my neck of the woods at least we've been told there is a "chronic housing shortage" for years, I remember Brown saying it and promising to build everywhere.

Brown is financially retarded, the reason prices were insane under his watch was due to the debt bubble where banks were lending money they didnt have to people who would never be able to pay it back as they were lying to get mortgages.

The housing shortage line is now used in every single western country with an obscene housing bubble as the reason for house prices being so high, its nonsense.

Dont get me wrong im well aware the UK's planning laws which enable an Oligopoly of builders to be the chosen few to convert green field land to housing plots and then drip feed overpriced houses onto the market is not helping.

But quite simply if interest rates spike up to 5% the price of property will crash and then people can buy with wages, and it'll be the same amount of stock. 

If Boris gets rid of Help to Buy ALL house prices will fall, with the same amount of stock. 

If BTLers stop getting the equivalent of MIRAS and/or there is regulation to put an end to BTL mortgages prices will crash.

It was this woman who mentioned there was a housing shortage in a report circa 2012 and Gidiot and the Tory party jumped on it as the reason for house prices being insane, as its a better option than admitting they've deliberately caused it with QE, ZIRP Help to Buy and such like.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/27/building-homes-britain-housing-crisis

But yes i will agree that if the plebs could build on any plot they could get their hands on, then the price of development land would crash and house prices would also.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Well I tried straight forward clear explanation and that failed miserably.

Yes i understood your point, but you lack the intellect to understand someone has a differing point of view so you resort to being a condescending twat.

 

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3 minutes ago, Tdog said:

But yes i will agree that if the plebs could build on any plot they could get their hands on, then the price of development land would crash and house prices would also.

If you limit demand (i.e. credit & other sources of additional buyer cash) then you end up with a market rigged at both ends: artificial supply caps and artificial demand caps, it can be made to work but there massive incentives to game the system remain.

If you try to remove limits on supply then you move towards to a more naturally self regulating market. This also has the beneficial side effect of ... there generally being more housing for everyone.

The same applies to trying to solve high rents by using rent controls, this can be made to work (as it has in germany for example) but leaves the market in unnatural and fragile state and means that you need a massive regulatory framework to stop it being gamed such as minimum room sized etc etc. Much better and more sustainable to just massively increase the available rental housing stock (in addition to rather than instead of more owner/occupier properties).

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23 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

I'm stating that credit does not create price increases through additional competition for non supply constrained goods. That is entirely compatible with the idea that credit availability creates additional market segments that might not otherwise exists (e.g. super premium products).

Indeed and that essentially proves my point. Thanks.

 

It seems your point is reliant on forgetting about the other 25 million dwellings in the UK that people may want to buy, as what you are implying is everyone wants to buy one of the new builds that are dripped into the market each year.

Too add more people than ever own 2 or more house, mainly to rent out ... a strange kind of shortage.

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1 minute ago, goldbug9999 said:

If you limit demand (i.e. credit & other sources of additional buyer cash)

I dont wish to limit credit, that would imply i'm a socialist wanting to interfere with the markets.

I merely want a free market where the state doesn't get to choose the unlimited option of credit that they've gone for, that has made family home prices unaffordable to those buying with wages.

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Just now, Tdog said:

It seems your point is reliant on forgetting about the other 25 million dwellings in the UK that people may want to buy, as what you are implying is everyone wants to buy one of the new builds that are dripped into the market each year.

Too add more people than ever own 2 or more house, mainly to rent out ... a strange kind of shortage.

There is no real shortage of housing nationally, the problem is most of it is in the wrong hands, the true villains are BTL, speculators and second homes.

All things that predominantly didn't exist before 1987.

 

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1 minute ago, Tdog said:

It seems your point is reliant on forgetting about the other 25 million dwellings in the UK that people may want to buy, as what you are implying is everyone wants to buy one of the new builds that are dripped into the market each year.

Honestly I have no clue what point you are making here.

 

Quote

Too add more people than ever own 2 or more house, mainly to rent out ... a strange kind of shortage.

Its only the shortage that makes buy to let profitable in the first place as its the shortage that creates the captive market for rent. I can restate what you wrote as "more people than ever live in a house owned by someone else who already owns a house".

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1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

There is no real shortage of housing nationally, the problem is most of it is in the wrong hands, the true villains are BTL, speculators and second homes.

Exactly. 

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3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

There is no real shortage of housing nationally, the problem is most of it is in the wrong hands, the true villains are BTL, speculators and second homes.

All things that predominantly didn't exist before 1987.

A vast influx of EE's is also something we didn't have before 1987. You are all acting as I'm denying the financial factors, which I am not.

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