Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

The price of maccydees is ridiculous. I was going to have a double big mac when I saw them advertised, just for a trip down memory lane. Fucking £4 just for the burger. I'm not paying that they can fuck off. 

Everyone knows that you should only buy off the pound saver menu. Two double cheeseburgers; large fries and can of Coke from the corner shop will set you back around a fiver. That’s reasonable value if you’re out and about and need sustenance.

[Sasquatch]

Ebay purchase turned up today in the post. Nice addition to my collection and a change from coins.

King Canute 2oz silver ingot. Lovely and heavy in the hand. Might keep an eye out for any more (at the right price)

 

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Mcflation is here!

Just got 20 chicken nugget box (don't judge), now £4.79 up from £4.19. THEN I notice the temporary 5% VAT still in place, so real cost £5.50. 30% increase!

Don't worry, a little bit of statistics magic and that inflation rate will be right back down to 2%.  #let them eat flatscreen tv's

[Lightscribe]

25 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Ebay purchase turned up today in the post. Nice addition to my collection and a change from coins.

King Canute 2oz silver ingot. Lovely and heavy in the hand. Might keep an eye out for any more (at the right price)

 

 

I’ll just add to this. Did a test purchase post 2021 with x2 10oz 2020 Queen Beasts (Yale’s had only just come in stock) on Silver to go and coin invest.

Upon putting £1k+ in your basket a customs handling charge is applied. Below that that charge is removed.

UPS required however that the VAT however to be paid before delivery. If you look on EBay now you’ll see the explosion in prices for these coins. Now people will have to pay the charges as well the collectibility value, I’m glad I’ve got multiples of the whole series and also loaded up on Britannia’s in the last few years. 

I have a feeling now I’m going to get a lot of competition on pre 1920 silver coins and sterling silver candlesticks and fruit bowls below spot. I’ll have Dosboders encroaching on my patch as well as in the Lidl and Aldi food bins!

[Bobthebuilder]

27 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Everyone knows that you should only buy off the pound saver menu. Two double cheeseburgers; large fries and can of Coke from the corner shop will set you back around a fiver. That’s reasonable value if you’re out and about and need sustenance.

If you are on the road working, the breakfasts they do are good value IMHO.

[Popuplights]

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

If you are on the road working, the breakfasts they do are good value IMHO.

Sausage and egg Mcmuff. It's the dream. 

[Don Coglione]

4 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Sausage and egg Mcmuff. It's the dream. 

Scottish vag?

[Sasquatch]

16 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I have a feeling now I’m going to get a lot of competition on pre 1920 silver coins and sterling silver candlesticks and fruit bowls below spot. I’ll have Dosboders encroaching on my patch as well as in the Lidl and Aldi food bins!

Believe it or not, the ebay seller effectively paid me £120 to take it off his hands. One of those really odd auctions starting at 99p. Now and then I'll have a look at what's ending in antiques on ebay. I managed to bag the ingot (66g) and another 350g of hallmarked silver (mustard pots, knives, pepperette etc) for £84 + £3 postage. 

Don't worry there's plenty of it to go around 

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Sorry Harp - I guess everyone's definition of 'cash' is different. What I mean is i had assumed (incorrectly?) that the cash payment was in form of bank transfer (from buyers own cash savings) and also would be visible to your conveyancing solicitor. I'm no legal expert, but I think large cash payments are still legal so long as the buyers solicitor has ascertained where the cash came from, which is just a case of using a simple form (or used to be), and your own solicitor would have asked for a copy of this information.                                                          However, if we are talking about a guy who has 100k lying around the house, then might need a rethink.                                                                                                                                                                                          What does the guy do for a living? He doesn't happen to be an 'asbestos engineer' does he?!? (absolutely no offence intended to other dosboders past or present!!!)

Large cash payments between individuals are still legal as long as you are getting fair value (i.e. you are not doing funny things with value to evade tax or to hide money).  A family member sold a house to a known crime family about 20 years ago; both solicitors knew the family was bent as fuck but the sale still went ahead (guessing our solicitor would have also reported to the authorities).

If you're in a regulated business, lots of restrictions on cash etc now.

But - if this guy is slightly dodgy, that ups the risk substantially that he tries to rip you off.  Use a lawyer.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Mcflation is here!

Just got 20 chicken nugget box (don't judge), now £4.79 up from £4.19. THEN I notice the temporary 5% VAT still in place, so real cost £5.50. 30% increase!

Kippers were £1 in Iceland two weeks ago,£1.25 now,25% increase.Iv been stocking up on long dated tins like stewed steak,corned beef,chicken in white sauce etc,everything i use in home made pies before they move higher 

Service industries are going to be in huge trouble,as are the people who cant cook and use these places all the time.Once inflation moves it feeds itself and more input costs the worse it gets.

Iv noticed much less coming on Facebook marketplace as well.Could be because of lockdown but im struggling to get a good food processor for £25.

[Don Coglione]

13 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Large cash payments between individuals are still legal as long as you are getting fair value (i.e. you are not doing funny things with value to evade tax or to hide money).  A family member sold a house to a known crime family about 20 years ago; both solicitors knew the family was bent as fuck but the sale still went ahead (guessing our solicitor would have also reported to the authorities).

If you're in a regulated business, lots of restrictions on cash etc now.

But - if this guy is slightly dodgy, that ups the risk substantially that he tries to rip you off.  Use a lawyer.

Solicitors will inspect your arse with a magnifying glass over any large cash transaction here now, there is no escape.

Australia may still turn a blind eye (Crown Casinos, anyone?).

[Bobthebuilder]

54 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Sausage and egg Mcmuff. It's the dream. 

Kept me going for years that stuff.

I see repsol might get a bid? I am up 40%, does not feel right topping up at these levels. What do other folk do?

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Bid from who?!

Sorry, there was talk a few pages back about it might do well.

[leonardratso]

i might try it on, ive got 4 repsol shares so ill just say im a majority shareholder, you know how those lazy spanish guys are asleep half the day so ill try it on a hot sunny afternoon in madrid sometime.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Popuplights said:

Sausage and egg Mcmuff. It's the dream. 

Breakfast of Champions! 

Sausage & egg McMuffin’s are available all day in Singapore.

Edit: and Hong Kong. Probably all of Asia.

[Talking Monkey]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Kippers were £1 in Iceland two weeks ago,£1.25 now,25% increase.Iv been stocking up on long dated tins like stewed steak,corned beef,chicken in white sauce etc,everything i use in home made pies before they move higher 

Service industries are going to be in huge trouble,as are the people who cant cook and use these places all the time.Once inflation moves it feeds itself and more input costs the worse it gets.

Iv noticed much less coming on Facebook marketplace as well.Could be because of lockdown but im struggling to get a good food processor for £25.

 A bloke I know flush with redundancy money was talking about buying a takeaway that is up for sale, I explained even though its doing well now it probably won't be the case in 3 years due to inflation. 

[Don Coglione]

23 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

 A bloke I know flush with redundancy money was talking about buying a takeaway that is up for sale, I explained even though its doing well now it probably won't be the case in 3 years due to inflation. 

If it is so successful, why is it for sale?

[Talking Monkey]

1 minute ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

If it is so successful, why is it for sale?

Exactly that. 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Solicitors will inspect your arse with a magnifying glass over any large cash transaction here now, there is no escape.

Australia may still turn a blind eye (Crown Casinos, anyone?).

Lawyers in Australia not covered by money laundering laws.  They've been fighting it for years, apparently.... 

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, leonardratso said:

quite, dont want to move into a drug dealers ex house, a lot of his rivals and clients wont have got the message and will still turn up to 'do im in' or 'buy some shit'.

Youll become collateral damage.

Either that or someones grassed that hes got 100K sat around in the house, eh eh.

Like Aww says, its probably just some hurty words on twitter, or more than 2 maskless people congregating in an anti covid manner.

I went to a stabbing once.Mistaken identity in terms of the hosue.That's unlucky.

 

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Now I know I post often saying it could go either way but so it is for the oillies.  Big picture montly charts say massive room to go up.  The daily charts show most are overbought but history for the likes of RDSB say they can stay this way for quite some time, sometimes just treading water but other times seeing large gains.  Price (candles) have hit prior support levels so need to break through this resistance.  To (recent) date, every successive overbought situation has led to a higher high except the current one (if it has indeed uncharacteristically completed).  Today's candle for RDSB suggests market indicision.  A pullback, as is happening, seems quite reasonable.  A more sustained, material, pullback is possible but things certainly are interesting.  A great time to be timing further entries since the lows.  I'm maybe fully allocated to RDSB (need to reconsider) but am eyeing up other plays to extend into Europe, Asia and Russia.  The latter two are moving but could be signalling the tail end of the run up, or a more broader move.   REP does seem to be moving but the very big picture is lower lows, although plenty of upside each time to be worth it.

PS:  Maybe simliar in some of our other beloved sectors, I need to check, but right now I have logging and 142 trade signals from Japan to work through - Nochihodo!

 

This is a great reminder to use different timeframes when charting.I take a great deal of notice of the monthlies from as I like to surf with the tide.

The disconcerting thing with the oilies at the minute is the lack of pullbacks in the underlying.snd here's Brents weekly chart showing the force is with it.

[Mapper]

4 hours ago, Calcutta said:

I was going to have a double big mac when I saw them advertised, just for a trip down memory lane.

I sometimes have a Big Mac when I'm feeling nostalgic. For some reason, I think I'm going to be enjoying a guilty pleasure. But, at the end of it I always feel like McDonald's has consumed part of my soul.

[sancho panza]

Shamelessly taken from Dr Clare Craig's twitter feed.Prize for anyone that reckons they could spot the pandemic year in all cause mortality chart without the numbers beneath it.

Shocking what's been done in the name of suppressing the population covid

 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

I only go into K&S because of this thread.  It failed my screen.  So much for you lot!  But trust me to pick one of the rare (potentially) duff ones.  I guess you either go big into the whole thread portfolio or go home!  Don't know what the hit is but know it's going to be a small percentage of the portfolio, that's what you do dontaknow!

The scales fell from my eyes regarding Germany with the Milli Vanili lip sync scandal... crass example perhaps, but I am of course self-censoring and could instead have chosen a much earlier historical  example, however didn't want to prematurely invoke Godwin's law!!

[sancho panza]

I know there's a few on here have started talking goldies again for the first time in a while.These two Tweets sum up the two sides of the equation.

Gold is suffering on the ring real rates but you look at the Fed balance sheet and it shouldn;t be too long before it bounces

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Mcflation is here!

Just got 20 chicken nugget box (don't judge), now £4.79 up from £4.19. THEN I notice the temporary 5% VAT still in place, so real cost £5.50. 30% increase!

That's 27.5p for each nugget of ...chicken!!!, well I suppose they aint called the 'Golden Arches' for nothing?