Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Depending on the country you may have to quarantine, but flights and hotels have never been cheaper.

If i didnt have the kid id be off tomorrow.

It's illegal to leave the country except on business at the moment. I reckon me, the Mrs and two kids turning up at the airport with our swimming stuff would probably raise suspicions.

I hate our government for doing this and will never forgive them.

[Hancock]

13 minutes ago, AWW said:

It's illegal to leave the country except on business at the moment. I reckon me, the Mrs and two kids turning up at the airport with our swimming stuff would probably raise suspicions.

I hate our government for doing this and will never forgive them.

I forgot the lengths our caring govt will go to protect us.

Surely you can just say you're emigrating, or going to a wedding (wonder if you could say your own) or a funeral, or to go fuck yourselves you communist wankers.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

This is the issue that constantly plagues my mind, with the whole roadmap. I have no intention of getting rich nor is there anything materially that I would desire i.e. boats, cars, homes abroad etc, all that comes with hassles and constant fees in relation to how much you use them.

Once I sell everything I have (including BTC - there’s that word again) and my current property, I would move near the coast with a decent garden and that’s me done mortgage free. I would then reduce my hours at work and go part time (no lockdown for me as I need to be physically there) due to the hassle of commuting. 

But the main issue I grapple with is what happens to the rest of the country? My friends have openly said to me when I’ve told them of potentially what awaits that they wouldn’t be able to afford their mortgage if interest rates even move slightly. I think this goes for most the country and would wipe out the younger generation in one swoop into negative equity and unaffordable payments. What would the government do in this scenario as they certainly couldn’t provide social housing.

That’s why the more I think about it, the more negative rates seem likely and they let the currency go to toilet paper. Great reset 2030.

Regarding your concerns about affordable mortgages under a higher interest rate policy. I think your question links to the current thread discussion about 'credit controls' which I think is such an interesting topic in itself - effectively handing government a back door/active role in the shape of future economy. For practice example, i could easily see a US style Freddie Mac solution being created to help smooth the UK housing market for most mortgagees, including for example lifetime fixed rate mortgages, plus if you get into difficulties, just take a payment holiday - the penalty for which could be the (temporary?) return of house equity to the lender(government?). So long as house prices continue to rise, the lender increases its assets, and over time maybe it gets to own everyone's house!!                                                                                                          ...rather depressingly, I no longer see these type of ideas as being fanciful. After all we've had the long march through the institutions, or is it 'slowly slowly catchy monkey'! (Also reminded of the recent newspeak 'you'll own nothing and you'll be happy').

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is exactly the sort of thing we expected to happen.SSE is a sitting duck for a big oily to take over,if i was CEO of Shell id of launched a bid when the shares hit £10.However SSE will likely try to do deals with all these big oilies.SSE are experts on the cable side and with big oil capital and engineering skills a win win.SSE and Shell and Bp have a chance to eat the big European utility companies lunch.Big oil is going to have massive free cash in a few years and its crucial they have the projects and partnerships in place.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-9256953/SSE-15bn-plan-global-windfarms-giant.html

Phillips-Davies said he would be keen to partner with BP and Shell on renewable projects as they transition towards greener energy. 

'They are two of a number of parties we are speaking to,' he said. 

This is the issue regarding jobs, the company Infa just bought went bust in essence because the Chinese are building the vast majority of the windmills to be used in Scotland’s largest offshore wind farm.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18820310.revealed-52-4m-taxpayers-money-set-lost-bifab-faces-collapse/

Maybe we will get 1 or 2 more crumbs from the table, as opposed to building every single part of every single windmill which we should be more than capable of.

Pity the lefty greeny cunts dont kick off about these being made in China and then shipped here which must put another hole in the ozone layer.

See this link also

https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/212989/breaking-bifab-win-fabrication-deal-for-edfs-2bn-scottish-wind-farm-project/

[Barnsey]

They actually tweeted this out 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

49 minutes ago, AWW said:

It's illegal to leave the country except on business at the moment. I reckon me, the Mrs and two kids turning up at the airport with our swimming stuff would probably raise suspicions.

I hate our government for doing this and will never forgive them.

Well, the legal consensus seems to be that it isn't illegal as they can't actually enforce it. 

 

It needs testing. 

 

DOSBODS 18-30s jaunt? 🤔

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

Government backed lifetime mortgages?

Absolutely anything is possible in the next 10 years or so.

Oops!!! Just saw your reply to Lightscribe. I posted something similar few mins ago.

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

They actually tweeted this out 

 

There are no brakes on the Honk train 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup my thoughts too. You will own nothing...

Darn!!!, as per my earlier post to Sasquatch please excuse my 'redundant' double postings...    either that, or there is far too much agreement/confirmation bias going on here on this thread?!?

[JMD]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

It's illegal to leave the country except on business at the moment. I reckon me, the Mrs and two kids turning up at the airport with our swimming stuff would probably raise suspicions.

I hate our government for doing this and will never forgive them.

Yes agreed. I will also not forgive the government for turning me into a 'conspiracy theorist'/lockdown skeptic or what ever they want to call me or attempt to smear me with being... In fact if I were a 'flat earther'(I'm not btw) I think all these travel restrictions were just more proof of how far authorities will go to prevent me from discovering 'the truth'!!??

[SpectrumFX]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup my thoughts too. You will own nothing...

They can fuck off.

 

[Don Coglione]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup my thoughts too. You will own nothing...

Gothenburg?

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

They actually tweeted this out 

 

Fucking Helmuts

[Hancock]

43 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

They can fuck off.

 

Capitalism failed because the communists like to own all the fucken houses, then got the govt to print money and raise taxes on the productive tenant to bail their shit investment out.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

They actually tweeted this out 

 

Roses are red,violets are blue,the roaring 20s for us,the 70s for you,rates below inflation for a decade thats true,but your labour is ours and your buying power too.

[Erewhon888]

3 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Absolutely anything is possible in the next 10 years or so.

Former Central Banker (BoE, BoC, plus BIS etc) says debt restructuring is needed, BUT a debt jubilee would take money from the pension funds AND there are no rules for orderly global debt reset. On the other hand, he says, formerly thought impossible things keep happening.

 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

They actually tweeted this out 

 

Tech stocks are red 

Oilies are blue 

DXY at sixty

It's 2022

[Don Coglione]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Roses are red,violets are blue,the roaring 20s for us,the 70s for you,rates below inflation for a decade thats true,but your labour is ours and your buying power too.

Macro sage and poet to boot! Fucking legend,

[Loki]

20 minutes ago, AWW said:

Oilies are blue 

Is it unreasonable to expect a blue day for BP tomorrow with the natural gas price spike?  It would be nice to see.

[Nomad]

3 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Government backed lifetime mortgages?

Absolutely anything is possible in the next 10 years or so.

I have been waiting to move up the housing ladder for the last 10 years, never have as I always thought they are overpriced. I cant see anything changing. Imo it's the lenders, if lending was restricted prices would come down. No idea how people could repay mortgages if interest rates when up to 7 or 8%. Perhaps they never will?

[sleepwello'nights]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

My friends have openly said to me when I’ve told them of potentially what awaits that they wouldn’t be able to afford their mortgage if interest rates even move slightly. I think this goes for most the country and would wipe out the younger generation in one swoop into negative equity and unaffordable payments. What would the government do in this scenario as they certainly couldn’t provide social housing.

 

What did the great Gordon Brown do in the GFC. He came up with a number of schemes to allow mortgage borrowers to defer payments, he introduced benefit schemes that topped up the borrowers income to pay their mortgage, he put pressure on the lenders to assist borrowers in difficulty.

I'm sure the present government would do the same if they had to.

[AWW]

The lenders won't do anything that would cause the value of the assets on their books to fall. They'd rather have borrowers on payment holidays than see forced selling cause values to fall.

[Noallegiance]

Roses are red, violets are blue, this poem should rhyme, but I'm shit at stuff like that and my timing's well off an'all.

 

 

 

 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Roses are red, violets are blue, this poem should rhyme, but I'm shit at stuff like that and my timing's well off an'all.

 

 

 

 

Reminds me of that one that was doing the rounds years ago

𝑅𝑜𝓈𝑒𝓈 𝒶𝓇𝑒 𝓇𝑒𝒹,
𝑀𝓎 𝓃𝒶𝓂𝑒 𝒾𝓈 𝓃𝑜𝓉 𝒟𝒶𝓋𝑒,
𝒯𝒽𝒾𝓈 𝓂𝒶𝓀𝑒𝓈 𝓃𝑜 𝓈𝑒𝓃𝓈𝑒, 
𝑀𝒾𝒸𝓇𝑜𝓌𝒶𝓋𝑒.

[Castlevania]

22 minutes ago, Nomad said:

I have been waiting to move up the housing ladder for the last 10 years, never have as I always thought they are overpriced. I cant see anything changing. Imo it's the lenders, if lending was restricted prices would come down. No idea how people could repay mortgages if interest rates when up to 7 or 8%. Perhaps they never will?

I live on the continent. My landlord wants to sell up but tenants have some rights here, so he can’t kick me out as long as I continue paying rent  As it turns out the annual rates bill arrived earlier this week. Rateable value of €575,000. I laughed, then looked up how much similar flats were being listed for sale. Actually maybe not that ridiculous.

I then looked up mortgage costs and this is where things are ridiculous. There’s a limit on how much of your net income you can spend on a mortgage similar to the U.K.  However, there is no lending multiple cap as long as you take out a long fix (10 years+). As bond rates fall the more you can borrow. I can borrow the best part of 6 times my gross income without even having to put down a deposit. It explains the insanity of house prices here. However, this surely works in reverse. You’d only need a small increase in bond rates to feed through to mortgages and well suddenly that lending multiplier will shrink, house prices fall and a load of people are in negative equity. This is before considering much higher rates. Cheap long fixes might negate the damage, however if Euribor simply went back up to 3-4% a load of people would be screwed when their fixes expire.

Sell European banks.