Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

scared

FYI, I meant scarred.  It matters.

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, AWW said:

Slightly tangential question - does anyone here generate additional income from their portfolio by selling call options for stocks they own?

We used to do that but in all honesty,it ended up in us selling some stocks too cheaply and being unable to buy back in.Your best off in range bound stocks eg GSK but even then if they do an Astra......

To generate meaningful income you need to trade the front months imho and the reality is that at some point they'llramp and you ll be selling a £7 stock at £6 for a £0.10 premium.

 

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I have to relisten to his recent one on macrovoices. He had an alternative outcome to rising interest rates to cintrol inflation, by controlling bank credit growth  Keen to hear what you @DurhamBorn and the thread thought of it:

Would have considerable implications for the macro thesis discussed here.

I think the reality is that controlling credit expansion through the banks is difficult unless you assume that demand from individuals is a constant.We've discussed here  behaviorual economics and the impact that consumer psycholocy can have on broader economies,particualrly ones that are driven by consumsption like those in the WEst.

It's also worth referring to that super Gromen analogy of the CB's trying to ride two horses with one ass-stimulus and manitaining currency

ASide from issues pertaining to banks ability to supply credit-outlined in the paper I psoted from Prof K Dowd-,there's also issues in how much credit cosnumers will want if we enter a decent size debt deflation.

A decent size credit deflation I think needs to be measured in whetehr Fishers paradox kicks in and that's where the consumer preference for clearing debts results in an economic downturn that restricts them being able to pay down more of their detbs.

We've seen in March/April,that consumer are the weak link here paying off debts with stimulus cheques rahter than spending.

Ergo,I don't see the stimulus coming through consumers/banks but rather govt expansion because they can target the people who will spend and do so reliably.

Not saying Napier is worng but I think the next reflation won't through the traditonal routes.

[JREWING]

The Deafening Silence before the Storm.

~$70 a bucket of Oil anytime soon?

[sancho panza]

10 hours ago, AWW said:

Ironically, the biggest risk I see to me retiring at 50 is if I buy a house (SE) and then end up with a few hundred grand of negative equity. I think this is a larger risk now than at anytime in my life.

I do wonder how many people completely disregard this risk and see property ownership solely as a path to riches.

Its funny that was the converastion I was having with Mrs P t'other day.If she gets laid off tmrw and I get laid off,we can live,pay rents with the divis and still ahve something left for food and transport.We buy a hosue ,that option is gone and we're on the treadmill for antoher ten years at leasrt and then probably looking at BO shares we sold for £2-65 running into $100 brent at £4-50 plus a 12% divi at the purchase price.

She's late 30's and she doesn't know anyone of a similar age to her thru work who retns.It's how it is these days.I know lots of people with shedloads of debt and no understanding of interest rate risk.

 

10 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm reading a book about macro investing right now.

I'm going to be posting snippets that nudge my interest. Here's a few out of the first chapter:

 

whos the author NA?

[Sugarlips]

2 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Exactly the Same with my Dad, bought 1971. 

Same here, my folks bought a 2 up 2 down in Botley Oxford in 1972 for £4500, sold 7 years later for 450% more. 

They also stayed married, an often overlooked aspect to staying financially comfortable.

Oh and congratulations @DurhamBorn Another 1000 pages of invaluable reading!

[sleepwello'nights]

Interesting opportunity on CNA, obvs a mistake.

IWeb - Buy Shares - Investments (iweb-sharedeal ing..uk)

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

I've been thinking more about which lessons government might want to learn (be capable of learning!) from the 70's, I think one obvious thing is that they will want to avoid union power increasing. Union memberships are I think at all time lows. I'm sure government are secretly polling the Tory red wall to discover what they want to see happen. Anyone here know what the red-wallers really-really want? Secure, skilled jobs are pretty obvious, but what else (economically speaking)?

They want welfare cut hard.They want all immigrants turned back on their boats and sent back.They want council tax cut.They want their daughters to marry a lad with a £28k job instead of tax credits or universal credit,they want villains locked up,they want the BBC to say 99% of stabbings in London are blacks,they want woke shit kicked off tv,they dont give two fucks about trans rubbish or BLM.

So far Boris has been a failure to them.Then again most voted for Priti not him.

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, dnb24 said:

I am sure they do @sancho panza.  Even immigrant population demographics have changed- I’ve been in a few awkward conversations between elders and young ones regarding why they don’t have kids, or why they are still living at home.
Probably the best contrarian indicator  happened to me last December- we took my mother in law and father in law out for a Christmas meal for Christmas in Islington. These guys are boomers. They bought a house at 25, mortgage paid at 40, £1mill pension. The MIL looked around the restaurant and in an envious manner said how life is so good for the gen z youngsters who can come here and enjoy a great meal, and how back in their day they couldn’t afford this. What I wanted to say was that these guys can’t afford a place around here, and therefore they go out like this to get some feeling that they have control over their life- even though the meal won’t last more than 2 hours and they’ve probably paid with a credit card! In that one moment I could see the 2 ends of the economic spectrum and the 2 ends of the 38 years of the cycle.

 

*I do not mean to be condescending using the word boomer. 

My Mum is 75 and quite switched on.She gets it but is quite honest about how few people of her generation really understand how much inflation and defined benefit pensions have dealth them a lovely hand.The irony being that to top up those defined benefit pensions,they went out and bought BTL's thereby bidding up the price of property beyond most people's realsitic reach.

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its maybe the slightly more likely outcome now and very interesting.They want an industrial recovery,and holding down bank credit would help with that in many ways if they also add fiscal liquidity ongoing,however i think that it wouldnt work to kill inflation because its going to be cost push inflation coming through.Could it be we get both?,rates increasing maybe to say 2.5% and credit kept down.My roadmap says they need to run inflation around 3% above rates to avoid collapse,maybe they know that themselves and are aiming for it?.The key point is they need liquidity moving from bonds to production.The financial repression is needed and certain.Its a distribution cycle ahead.If they do go for holding down credit i still think we get the same result,but maybe inflation tops out at 7+% instead of 12+% and reflation/de complex areas dont go parabolic,just a very good run higher over the cycle.

there's a few issues here.hoepfully not repaeting msyelf too mcuh

1) the measure of inflation-the CBs only control the ones they work towards because they're woefully inadequate measures of the cost of living.

2) one of the reasons we're entering antoher debt crisis is because the banks have gone out and instead of lending to the people who can pay it back,have lent to too many people who can't.For our salvation to be in the hands of credit controls via the banking sector then a) the banks need to be lending to the solvent consumers who are b) demanding credit.

3) for the bansk to be able to extend credit,they need to be solvent.

we know that stimulus is needed and to my untrained eye,it looks unlikely that the stimulus can be delviered through consumers.ergo,it'll be fiscal.Banks not the central route,unlike last 70 years.

I find your roadmaps interesting because it gives us a rough idea of where CB's need to run their measure of price inflation versus bond rates to make their bond market problems go away.

 

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks, I need to have a good think about how this works. I mean we've all heard our parents banging on about double digit interest rates (usually not mentioning the high inflation that went with that). But in my case anyway, there were no credit cards or bank loans, no cars on finance and mortgages were very hard to get, cap in hand to the bank manager stuff. I don't know if bank credit was restricted then, or just wasn't available, but you had all three things in the late 70s early eighties: no bank credit, high interest rates and high inflation.

The key thing here to appreciate i that in terms of credit creation,the 80's and 90's were very differnt times.Link below talks about life in banks pre Basel and it was pretty mundane.People had to pay interest rates that reflected the risks of lending rather than the risk of the CB's not stepping in.I ahven't studied the period and am happy to defer to those with more knowledge,but pre Basel,it was cash reserve lending,which meant that govts could rein banks in quickly by rasing reserve rates which would lead to an automatic contraction of credit.

These days,banks are holding assets versus liabilites,both sides of the balance sheet being highly gameable in terms of risk weighting assets and not marking laons to market.Even the risk weighting of assets can be blatantly gamed as banks with big enough databases can use the IRB appraoch (based on their own data) as compared to teh satnaddardized approach based on everyone elses.

Post Basel 3 it's jsut an even bigger mess than the Basel 2 left behind.

There was a simplicity to cash reserve lending that people coukd understadn.BAsel changed that.

https://positivemoney.org/2011/01/basel-accords-mark-market/

 

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

PS: The East German narrative plays to a growing bee in my bonnet about how relatively well, yet again, the public sector has done out of covid.  Furlough was primarily a government employee thing, exclusively not any more, plus special treatment by the corporates, even the recent opening of their own shop.  "Key workers" like the rest of us are nothings.  Are they the new party members?

I'm technically a 'key worker' and boy oh boy does that phrase grate me.As everyone who can read threads here knows,I've beena lockdown sceptic from day one of this mess.

Reasons I hate that key worker tag are

1) it overlooks the fact that non key workers pay the tax to ay oru wages.Ergo,they're more key than me.

2) its like the lives of key worker kids matter more than others.No they don't .Each little life that the politcal class have hampered/destroyed/focred to spend time with absuers/taken swings away from parks, is precious to society and only our compektely deluded political class could priotritize the kids of 'key workers' over the kids of tax payers and poor people.

3) it smacks of marxism.Elevating the govt workers above everyone else.Prize for anyone that can name a Marxist paradise that didn't end up in rampant income inequality(same day ,different 1%),inflation,people going hungry and laods of people in prison?

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

whos the author NA?

woodford

[sancho panza]

Talking of credit creation,here come the losses.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/02/12/owner-of-westfield-buckling-under-32-billion-in-debt-plans-to-dump-its-us-malls-after-huge-losses/

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW), which, in addition to many properties in Europe, owns 27 malls in the the US, including the upscale Westfield San Francisco Center, reported a loss of €7.6 billion for 2020, after large write-downs. Its net rental income dropped by 28%.

The company, Europe’s biggest property REIT, is heavily leveraged and is in all the wrong markets at the wrong time. Besides its exposure to the ravaged brick-and-mortar retail sector, URW has a portfolio of airport shopping centers, office towers, hotels and conference halls, all of which were hammered by lockdowns, closures, travel restrictions, and cancellations.

The company’s shares responded to the news by sliding 12% on Thursday, to €57 a piece. They are now down 55% year over year and 78% from a peak of €257 in February 2015.

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Talking of credit creation,here come the losses.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/02/12/owner-of-westfield-buckling-under-32-billion-in-debt-plans-to-dump-its-us-malls-after-huge-losses/

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW), which, in addition to many properties in Europe, owns 27 malls in the the US, including the upscale Westfield San Francisco Center, reported a loss of €7.6 billion for 2020, after large write-downs. Its net rental income dropped by 28%.

The company, Europe’s biggest property REIT, is heavily leveraged and is in all the wrong markets at the wrong time. Besides its exposure to the ravaged brick-and-mortar retail sector, URW has a portfolio of airport shopping centers, office towers, hotels and conference halls, all of which were hammered by lockdowns, closures, travel restrictions, and cancellations.

The company’s shares responded to the news by sliding 12% on Thursday, to €57 a piece. They are now down 55% year over year and 78% from a peak of €257 in February 2015.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/12/westfield-sold-frank-lowy-agrees-to-33bn-takeover-deal

I have no idea how he managed to sell at that price right now, but fair play to him.  Getting out before the crash.

Having travelled in the US for decades on and off, for business, the decline of the mall was visible 5+ years ago.  I remember passing the same mall ten years apart and being shocked how run down it looked.  Online shopping, multiculturalism, etc, kill public shopping experiences.

In HK and China malls are still very popular due to safety (homogenous society, little street crime) and a desire to get out of your small living space.

I can see a two-tone world, where in some countries malls are still going, in others dead and gone.  for those latter countries, the losses to lenders will be immense.

[wherebee]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's a look behind the curtain of Iranian exports. It's just noise that some trucks blew up, but this is the reality of sanctions. Syria to the Med was a popular route before. Iran is probably shipping over 1mbpd above sanction levels that everyone quotes. In other words, there is over 1mbpd less available as spare capacity than the market assumes.

Interestingly, one aspect of the macro view that I had not really considered is that if we do split into a multi-polar world where the russians and chinese DGAF about US sanctions, Iranian oil becomes a major player again for half the world.  Won't that push down prices?

[MrXxxx]

On 12/02/2021 at 20:58, working woman said:

think a line in the sand needs to be draw, with something like a Service of Rememberance at the end of March, for people who have died, wheeling out the Queen and Archbishop of Cantebury etc.

What you mean like we do for our disabled war vets?......and then ignore them for the rest of the year like the government do!.....I don't need to be told by the government when to pay my respects to my family, especially when they tried to dictate to others regarding funerals etc.

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, Harley said:

The question du jour, who will they put on the poster?

Boris of course!...Hancock fancies himself more as Stalin and Gove is a mini-Mussolini.

[Jesus Wept]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They want welfare cut hard.They want all immigrants turned back on their boats and sent back.They want council tax cut.They want their daughters to marry a lad with a £28k job instead of tax credits or universal credit,they want villains locked up,they want the BBC to say 99% of stabbings in London are blacks,they want woke shit kicked off tv,they dont give two fucks about trans rubbish or BLM.

So far Boris has been a failure to them.Then again most voted for Priti not him.

1000 pages of the best of t’internet. cheers @DurhamBorn!

Anyway here is my 2 cents worth for page 1000... (allows me to get my thoughts right in my head).

 

There is a huge boom in asset prices, particularly in the US. And there is the prospect, once we escape from lockdown, of a huge burst of economic growth. We talk about this ‘wall of money’ sitting in bank accounts as people have been unable to spend it in restaurants and their usual monthly outgoings of new clothes and luxuries to impress their friends as they cannot see them at present. 

This boom in US asset prices is becoming worrying. Great if you own Tesla shares or have a few Bitcoin or you have invested in a bitcoin miner like Argo. But financial bubbles sooner or later burst. They always have in the past, and they always will in the future. When will this one ‘pop’? 

This bubble has been inflated by free money – the zillions of dollars and other currencies created by the central banks –  when the money taps start to be turned off what will happen? The banks will have to turn off those ‘money taps’ and have to raise interest rates when inflation cometh.....

Already in the US there are signs of  inflation: oil prices are just about back to pre-Covid levels.
 

What will happen to energy demand  (oil and gas)when the world is allowed to travel again. Mind things always take longer to happen than people expect. 

The point at which everyone suddenly realises that asset and stock prices have ‘got out of hand’ and markets are going to crash may be some way off. 

‘The markets can remain delusional longer than you can remain solvent’  I think we say here?

In the UK we have not had a mania on anything like the scale of the US, largely because we do not have a large high-tech sector. That is one of the reasons why UK shares have lagged behind US ones. The S&P 500 index is around its all-time high while the FTSE100 has partially recovered from the collapse a year ago, though it is only where it was in the spring of 2013. However, when the US bubble pops, we will get caught in the fallout as people sell to meet margin.  

But there is going to be an economic rebound.....? the economy is 'poised like a coiled spring'...... right?

One question this ‘sharp economic rebound ‘ raises is what does this do for UK share prices? Companies will be growing well, improving earnings, and able to rebuild dividends. That would surely underpin current valuations, and maybe enable share prices to escape the range they are stuck in at the moment??

When central banks start raising interest rates the bubble will pop, and I'm think a lot of inexperienced investors will lose money. 

But not all prices will fall, or at least they won't collapse. Solid economic growth and solid company profits will underpin the value of sound companies around the world.

We will not escape unscathed from the popping of the bubble. UK house prices will finally get properly fucked when interest rates rise. 

At the moment FOMO is clashing with my innate caution. 

For myself.....

I am loving the bitcoin bubble....

I have built up a nice little war chest of cash in the last 12 months 

I have lots of time on my hands....

As a new investor since March 2020 (having not invested in 20 years),  I need to remember the ‘primary rules’ of @DurhamBorn and others on here..

1. spread risk and top slice and take your profits 

2. Allow dividends from ‘inflation resistant/protected companies at the start of the supply chain’ to build up, and let these compound gains build wealth over the long term. 

3. Stick to OPTIMiSM stocks and undervalued defensive stocks.

 4. Use and understand efficient ‘tax vehicles’ and strategies like ISA’s, CGT allowances, and SIPPs to make the most of your profits.

Enjoy your day people! 

[Dogtania]

17 hours ago, janch said:

The above talk about command economy and financial repression is very interesting and possibly a lot more likely now we have governments who love controlling things and populations who lap it up.  Those in government who remember the 70s would probably say that the main takeaway from tehn is not to let inflation runaway and then let loose a wage-price spiral which was very hard to get out of.  So it would mean a more controlled approach to inflation control generally.

I wonder what this does to property prices as maybe there will be control here too in that commercial banks won't be allowed to lend more than a ertain amount as the bulk of the money creation is being done centrally.  However the narrative is still that property prices go up and this is what everyone expects.  They've just extended the stamp duty holiday and help to buy too.  People are happy when they see their house rising in value but I do wonder about those who are priced out.

TPTB will have to be careful though as already we're seeing more of a two-tier split even amonsgt the poorest and also the middle class  (as well as between the higher echelons and the rest).  Many businesses allowed to fail and many people not being eligible for furlough when others are coining it in.

Indeed, I read an article recently arguing against lockdown as it was leading to a two tier society, with many WFH happy at the situation for now.  There getting paid spending less time money commuting, and if anything increasing their bank balance.

On the other side -and not sure I agree with the choice of words apart from delivery drivers which it seems quite apt for to me for some reason- you have the servant class who are keeping the WFH serviced (bin men and delivery rather than Dr I think).

There is no impetus on the WFH lot to change status quo other than I guess ability to travel abroad.  

The most worrisome group is the forgotten/ junk heaped group mainly hospitality.  They are on iirc 80% of their wages.  If they were on zero hours low wage and weren't feeling the pinch they certainly will be now.

Limited experience but I've seen both "groups" and the WFH lot I definitely get some of that happy with the status quo vibe.  Maybe ones with kids slightly less so depending on support network etc and schools not open yet.

I know a lot gets said that is true about middle class getting squased etc but I think even within this happening, right now you have a separate two tier system emerging. Maybe the furlough is a turning into a UBI situation but in the meantime some are playing along alright Jack whilst others forgotten about and stuck in a corner.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/02/11/im-against-lockdowns-that-doesnt-make-me-a-bad-person/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

 

[arrow]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They want welfare cut hard.They want all immigrants turned back on their boats and sent back.They want council tax cut.They want their daughters to marry a lad with a £28k job instead of tax credits or universal credit,they want villains locked up,they want the BBC to say 99% of stabbings in London are blacks,they want woke shit kicked off tv,they dont give two fucks about trans rubbish or BLM.

So far Boris has been a failure to them.Then again most voted for Priti not him.

One of the things that Napier said that made me rethink my views, was that unions didn't create high inflation but high inflation created unions. Not sure if it is completely accurate but it did have a huge influence.

Many industries have become addicted to endless labour supply  through immigration. Reducing this supply will reduce company, executives and shareholder profits. How well the red wall do in competing with these interests will affect investment choices.

Japan has been able to limit immigration and compete with China due to continuous drives to improve efficiency and improve automation. One reason I still invest in Japan.

Here, we've mostly taken the easy short term solution of reducing company labour cost but increasing government financial burden by topping up salaries through benefits.

Many years ago I read about how after Ww2 British industry wanted trade controls against Germany as they couldn't compete. How bad do you have to be at running a company to be unable to compete against a bombed out country.

One indication of what the future will bring will be if salaries will be allowed to increase to outstrip benefits, or will benefits be cut in real or nominal terms, or will it be both.

[Dogtania]

20 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I know a bunch of people that sell dogs and cats, and there are more people buying them with the intention to breed them. Even unworked horses are getting bought up. Male spaniels sold for £2000, females for £4000. If anyone wants a dog I would wait a few years. If they bother them during their first show then the first pups will be born this summer.

Theres a town near me thats mostly wealthy retired people. Apparently price of a coffee and piece of cake in the tiny independent cafe went from about £3 to £4 last summer,so I guess it will be £5+ this summer.

I think a lot of that pent up demand will be in retirees rather than working folk - working people bought office furniture, stuff to distract the kids, subscriptions to streaming sites and got a scare which made them save. Retired folk with a paid off mortgage will be the big spenders I think.

Interesting re dogs.  A person I sometimes interact with at work, think he's already post retirement but just comes here for fun or to be annoying.  Owns a French Pitbull (how much?).  Was saying the other week he's getting a bitch or hiring one for his bitch.  Said he'd give me one later in the year (er no thanks).

Guess they see it as an easy money making opportunity.  I don't know anything about breeding animals but can't say I blame him, it has always seemed that way to me although not looked at the fine detail.  

Maybe puppy price inflation will turn to deflationary so could be good advice to hold out.  Although maybe the good places to buy from will still be all booked up.  A friend has been after a Staffordshire for a while, at least once he's been to visit and got cold feet/ something not felt right with the operation etc.  Demand still definitely there but going forward will be sad if dodgy dealers selling to bad owners who go on to abuse or abandon.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, arrow said:

Many years ago I read about how after Ww2 British industry wanted trade controls against Germany as they couldn't compete. How bad do you have to be at running a company to be unable to compete against a bombed out country.

My old man was born in 1935, he always used to say that Germany won the war in industrial, financial and economic terms.

He was a lifelong Labour voter but stopped voting for them after attending a union Xmas do in the 1960s. They were eating strawberries in December, shocked him to the core.

[AWW]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Its funny that was the converastion I was having with Mrs P t'other day.If she gets laid off tmrw and I get laid off,we can live,pay rents with the divis and still ahve something left for food and transport.We buy a hosue ,that option is gone and we're on the treadmill for antoher ten years at leasrt

This is one of the things I love about this thread. I don't know anyone in real life who I could have a similar exchange with. I've been out of work for six months now, hobby businesses aside. Had we bought a house just before Covid hit, I don't think I'd sleep at night. As things are, I don't actually need to get a job for another ten years. And they say property ownership is security... I do resent being stuck in London during such a long period of time off though. In normal times, when work dries up, we bung our stuff in storage and take a very, very long holiday. Some might call it a gap yah. That option is obviously unavailable right now, and likely to remain so for a few months yet.

[Noallegiance]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

whos the author NA?

David Dreman

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Dogtania said:

Interesting re dogs.  A person I sometimes interact with at work, think he's already post retirement but just comes here for fun or to be annoying.  Owns a French Pitbull (how much?).  Was saying the other week he's getting a bitch or hiring one for his bitch.  Said he'd give me one later in the year (er no thanks).

Guess they see it as an easy money making opportunity.  I don't know anything about breeding animals but can't say I blame him, it has always seemed that way to me although not looked at the fine detail.  

Maybe puppy price inflation will turn to deflationary so could be good advice to hold out.  Although maybe the good places to buy from will still be all booked up.  A friend has been after a Staffordshire for a while, at least once he's been to visit and got cold feet/ something not felt right with the operation etc.  Demand still definitely there but going forward will be sad if dodgy dealers selling to bad owners who go on to abuse or abandon.

 

My daughters partner is a gypsy,they live in a big caravan,and he also owns land.They breed dogs properly ,lovely kennels etc.They have been getting £15k a litter and making nuts amounts of money.He has used the money from some to build himself a lovely stable block for horses.He cant read or write,but hes a great lad and hard working,he will never be skint.

For the pizza brigade iv been using different Italian flour instead of Caputo and its superb.My bases have been incredible,just using live yeast though,buy in a big block and freeze in 12g bits for 2 pizzas,

Only thing is though the shelf life is only 4 months,so be careful if you dont use a lot.2 months over date for use is fine though.If you want longer dates message sellers and see who has long dated stock

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Casillo-Farina-Italiana-Italian-Flour-00-for-Pasta-Pizza-and-Cakes-10-x-1kg/373033501299?ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&_trksid=p2057872.m2749.l2648

 

Iv also been making superb shortcrust pastry for pies with this recipe.The beauty is its just flour and vegetable oil so much more healthy and dirt cheap,45p flour from Lidl 1.5k bag i find best.I use a food processor with the dough arm on to mix,key is mix the oil and water and get it very cold before use and roll out pastry on cling film.Beautiful chicken and leek plate pies for £1.50.Add some sugar to mix and apple pies,iv got bags of them free from my dads trees.

http://allrecipes.co.uk/recipe/25276/easy-never-fail-pastry.aspx

[ILikeCake]

22 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I know a bunch of people that sell dogs and cats, and there are more people buying them with the intention to breed them. Even unworked horses are getting bought up. Male spaniels sold for £2000, females for £4000. If anyone wants a dog I would wait a few years. If they bother them during their first show then the first pups will be born this summer.

Theres a town near me thats mostly wealthy retired people. Apparently price of a coffee and piece of cake in the tiny independent cafe went from about £3 to £4 last summer,so I guess it will be £5+ this summer.

I think a lot of that pent up demand will be in retirees rather than working folk - working people bought office furniture, stuff to distract the kids, subscriptions to streaming sites and got a scare which made them save. Retired folk with a paid off mortgage will be the big spenders I think.

I've mentioned this on here before, my in laws have a kitchen and bathroom business.  They were going to retire last year but have decided to keep going due to business being so good.  They sell high end stuff and it's mostly retired folk who are doing the buying.

[DoINeedOne]

22 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm reading a book about macro investing right now.

I'm going to be posting snippets that nudge my interest. Here's a few out of the first chapter:

What book is this?