Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

53 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Mark Carney

he's just got a new job....funny how all these central banker cnuts get a juicy payoff from their 'paymasters'

Carney will join Brookfield Asset Management, which ranks as the world’s second-largest investor in climate-friendly businesses behind the US firm Blackstone with about $550bn in assets under management.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Nice chart showing the 40 year disinflation DB often references. 

[MrXxxx]

On 08/06/2021 at 13:09, sancho panza said:

Great Lyn Alden interview here.So much in it but at the 1hr mark she has a 'if Lyn was in charge' section where she talks about the difficult choices that will be faced and then says best solution is fiscal spending very much along lines @DurhamBorn has pushed from day one.,.

 

 has some other sections on oil-supply issues building,loooks good for decade,market fragility issues etc.gold etc

 

So good,too much for me to go through in written form.

 

 

Eye watering isn't it?It's like the High St is buzzing with footfall and people are in bidding wars for office floor space in the city.

Just Bumped this just in case anyone missed it. As someone who doesn't find the Economics side of this thread easy to follow this is well worth a watch. Lyn Alden is her usual self; to the point and explains things as if the viewer doesn't have a BA in economics. This said, the interviewer here is really good as well, asking current/pertinent market questions and then letting Lyn give the answer rather than interspersing to show how 'clever' he is...well worth a watch....moved me forward in my understanding.

[MrXxxx]

On 11/06/2021 at 12:00, VeryMeanReversion said:

I was listening to this last night, back-to-back 3 times.  Never done that for a podcast before.

The palisades shows usually are "blah, something interesting, blah, buy gold" but this was better.

Summary :

     - Raw material inflation 41% last year in China

     - China/Russia already preparing for the crash and will pick up assets it wants then. Reducing debt and dependency on the dollar. Getting digital currency ready. Large gold stocks.

     - Inflation will offset the western attempts at monetary and fiscal stimulus

     - Expect America to play dirty to try keep its hegonomic status, try limit/control China. 

     - Imminent melt-up then sharp correction is weeks away. Bottom Q4 2020 then expect more stimulus.

     - Dollar index initial bounce up but drop 50% by mid 2020's.

     - Big global crash in 2023.  Two years to prepare yourselves.  Simply too much debt. Central banks will need to restructure. (= default)

     - Copper price is now so high that aluminium and graphene becoming viable for bulk wiring applications (EVs and power distribution)

    - Wouldn't comment on bitcoin (which means he thinks its useless but doesn't want to piss anyone off saying it - I've seen other guests use this approach).

 

 

Thanks for the summary, this meant that I only needed to view once as I had a structure to follow; normally I do two to three times par for the course as I dont always 'get'/understand the context of everything.

[King Penda]

4 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think this is a very interesting article on Zerohedge about Mark Carney and his like and what they trying to implement for us all in plain sight:  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/it-wont-be-pleasant-mark-carney-unveils-dystopian-new-world-combat-climate-crisis

"It Won't Be Pleasant" - Mark Carney Unveils Dystopian New World To Combat Climate 'Crisis'

In his book Value(s): Building a Better World for All, Mark Carney, former governor both of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, claims that western society is morally rotten, and that it has been corrupted by capitalism, which has brought about a “climate emergency” that threatens life on earth. This, he claims, requires rigid controls on personal freedom, industry and corporate funding.

Carney’s views are important because he is UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance. He is also an adviser both to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the next big climate conference in Glasgow, and to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Things like this realy piss me off then I’m like I’m 56 soon I will be dead before half of there plans will get going .

[Chewing Grass]

You gotta watch this piece, big 'investors' like Blackrock are snapping up whole neighbourhoods and turning them into rentals, house prices up 30% across the board over the last few months with 25% of all sales in Houston going to 'institutional' investors.

Laura Roberts

15 hours ago

 

Lots of folks are going to be hurting bad when the market crashes again...

 

[geordie_lurch]

27 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

You gotta watch this piece, big 'investors' like Blackrock are snapping up whole neighbourhoods and turning them into rentals, house prices up 30% across the board over the last few months with 25% of all sales in Houston going to 'institutional' investors.

Laura Roberts

15 hours ago

 

Lots of folks are going to be hurting bi when t

market crashes again...

 

"You'll own nothing and you'll be happy"

That's if you make it through the potential upcoming cull by vaccine

 

[M S E Refugee]

https://www.commercialfleet.org/news/van-news/2021/06/11/royal-mail-commits-to-3-000-more-electric-vans

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://www.commercialfleet.org/news/van-news/2021/06/11/royal-mail-commits-to-3-000-more-electric-vans

i hope they deliver my 2 hundred weight of coal and delivered barrels of crude in one of those, got to save the environment at all costs.

[leonardratso]

"Six electric charging posts have also been installed on the site as part of the transformation. The electricity for powering the office and for charging the vehicles is also from 100% renewable sources."

This is claimed by quite a few companies, but i never see any actual proof that this is true.

I can claim to be the nicest most generous person around, but you wont see any proof of thats solid. But i can say it anyways.

 

[dnb24]

Not sure if any of you guys follow this lad

 

Adam trades daily and will probably satisfy you Chartists who like to do the same- but his chart work is developing similar gold, silver and S&P levels as Mr Hunter. 
He sounds pretty grounded and is open with his chart work- and his work over the past year has been pretty accurate.

[M S E Refugee]

32 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

"Six electric charging posts have also been installed on the site as part of the transformation. The electricity for powering the office and for charging the vehicles is also from 100% renewable sources."

This is claimed by quite a few companies, but i never see any actual proof that this is true.

I can claim to be the nicest most generous person around, but you wont see any proof of thats solid. But i can say it anyways.

 

We have just had our Car Park resurfaced last month and now they are going to rip some of it up to put these charging points in.

[leonardratso]

34 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

We have just had our Car Park resurfaced last month and now they are going to rip some of it up to put these charging points in.

.

 

[Chewing Grass]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

The other interesting bit are the rates, £213/week/person, children £120/week.

Give me & Mrs Chewy £213 per week each and that's early retirement sorted now, private pension will go further as long as they don't renege on my 41 years of full state-pension contributions via NI.

[Phil]

43 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

We have just had our Car Park resurfaced last month and now they are going to rip some of it up to put these charging points in.

Doing a 534 new car park in the midlands  for the guy going to space in a penis. 28 charging points. 

[Wheeler]

17 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Give me & Mrs Chewy £213 per week each and that's early retirement sorted now, private pension will go further as long as they don't renege on my 41 years of full state-pension contributions via NI.

UBI will replace the state pension won’t it? At least that’s my understanding.

[Chewing Grass]

27 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

UBI will replace the state pension won’t it? At least that’s my understanding.

So there is no point in paying Mrs Chewy's up as she is 5 years short of full then.

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Wheeler said:

UBI will replace the state pension won’t it? At least that’s my understanding.

Probably not. Its Universal Basic Income only in name.

It wont be universal as disabled people would get more, single morthers will probably get more, etc.

It wont be basic in one sense of the word because it wont cover housing costs for large parts of the country.

Probably shouldnt even be called an income since it requires no work, service or investment. Dole would be more appropriate replacement word.

Its just a widening of means tested benefits with a "trendy" sounding name.

[JMD]

Ignore the misleading bitcoin title, instead this is an interesting alternative future narrative for our oilies. Talk on thread recently about lack of competing ideas so thought this might stimulate some debate.                                                         Marin Katusa's thesis is that oil company loan funding will be pulled for esg reasons, a moral/financial diktat that he says will come to dominate in future years. @DurhamBornrefuted this when I asked about this late last year (macro voices podcast), because (DB please correct me if I'm wrong?) the big oil companies won't actually need the loan types Katusa says theorises they will be denied (because oil will generate plenty of its own fcf). I have posted this interview because Katusa elaborates more this time.                                                             Katusa is a gold/uranium/commod investor, not just a commentator, so has skin in the game. He used to like oil, but has he now gone rogue by favoring carbon credits?!? He sees them as a safe bond/politically ramped trend and predicts 4x return this decade and much higher over an expected 30 year term. Be good to hear what the experts and others of course on here think. And if Katusa is part correct how might we mitigate oilie investment risk, maybe stick to the large cap players? Can Katusa's views be dismissed out of hand, or is he saying something interesting... ie should we be prepared to snap up etf carbon credit funds in future (if they ever do these)?                                                  

 

 

[JMD]

47 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Probably not. Its Universal Basic Income only in name.

It wont be universal as disabled people would get more, single morthers will probably get more, etc.

It wont be basic in one sense of the word because it wont cover housing costs for large parts of the country.

Probably shouldnt even be called an income since it requires no work, service or investment. Dole would be more appropriate replacement word.

Its just a widening of means tested benefits with a "trendy" sounding name.

'In name only' you say? R its only a pilot, though curiously ambitiously scoped for this country I think? But I kinda agree with you, however that's the beauty of it all - it's all things to all men/women/LGBTQ+++. As for it being trendy, well so long as the millennials like the sound of it then it will be waved on through, along with MMT, plus all kinds of other dubious socialist claptrap.

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Probably not. Its Universal Basic Income only in name.

It wont be universal as disabled people would get more, single morthers will probably get more, etc.

It wont be basic in one sense of the word because it wont cover housing costs for large parts of the country.

Probably shouldnt even be called an income since it requires no work, service or investment. Dole would be more appropriate replacement word.

Its just a widening of means tested benefits with a "trendy" sounding name.

This is when they’ll start the introduction of digital IDs. Business will start to fail now, into further lockdowns for the rest of the year. They’ll withdraw furlough and this is when reality bites. It maybe another ‘March 2020 style’ dip come later this year as that Simon Hunter said in that video or the start of the BK. 

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/6355/pdf/
 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uk-digital-identity-and-attributes-trust-framework

UBI will vary amongst the population and will eventually (with the introduction of central bank crypto currency within the next couple of years) be weighted too.

I should imagine it would be no more than the JSA equivalent to begin with the appropriate add ons for DLA, child tax credits etc. With inflation, people will start to struggle massively. They’ll gladly accept a digital ID for government support. 2022 is going to be a very hairy ride.

Luckily Time magazine gave us an article in October 2020. It predicted the presidential election, vaccine and supposedly protests for this month (could make sense announcing further lockdowns) and it looks a fairly accurate timeframe to 2023.

https://time.com/collection/great-reset/5900739/fix-economy-by-2023/

 

[Loki]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Ignore the misleading bitcoin title, instead this is an interesting alternative future narrative for our oilies. Talk on thread recently about lack of competing ideas so thought this might stimulate some debate.                                                         Marin Katusa's thesis is that oil company loan funding will be pulled for esg reasons, a moral/financial diktat that he says will come to dominate in future years. @DurhamBornrefuted this when I asked about this late last year (macro voices podcast), because (DB please correct me if I'm wrong?) the big oil companies won't actually need the loan types Katusa says theorises they will be denied (because oil will generate plenty of its own fcf). I have posted this interview because Katusa elaborates more this time.                                                             Katusa is a gold/uranium/commod investor, not just a commentator, so has skin in the game. He used to like oil, but has he now gone rogue by favoring carbon credits?!? He sees them as a safe bond/politically ramped trend and predicts 4x return this decade and much higher over an expected 30 year term. Be good to hear what the experts and others of course on here think. And if Katusa is part correct how might we mitigate oilie investment risk, maybe stick to the large cap players? Can Katusa's views be dismissed out of hand, or is he saying something interesting... ie should we be prepared to snap up etf carbon credit funds in future (if they ever do these)?                                                  

 

I think he might be onto something. They were on about climate lockdowns. If they want an industrial cycle that's not feasible, so carbon credits would be one way of green washing.

[Sugarlips]

16 hours ago, JMD said:

 £213/week/person, children £120/week. That is a serious amount for a family

In today’s money, let’s see what it’ll buy them in 2 years time... 

[StrugglingMillennial]

It looks like the party is starting to end

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9682605/Rishi-Sunak-rejects-pleas-businesses-extend-furlough-scheme.html

 

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

I think he might be onto something. They were on about climate lockdowns. If they want an industrial cycle that's not feasible, so carbon credits would be one way of green washing.

I am only investing in Russian Oil Companies as it looks like the West is determined to destroy itself.

The Russians and Chinese will continue to use Oil and Gas and there is fuck all that Klaus and his assorted weirdo's can do about it.