Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Ma2]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/low-carbon-energy/energy-transition/2020/repsol-repositions-for-green-hydrogen

Really good article on Repsol's investment into hydrogen.Big oil is going to control this space probably.Thats the bit the market is missing.These projects should be prime for capital spending expansion just as oil prices run up hard giving the players the capital needed while others cant raise it.

Interesting that iridium among other metals may be required for this process if/when low cost electricity is unavailable. Iridium is mined by Anglo American who some on here may already hold.

"...a solid PEM electrolyte uses pure water, is more efficient and can generate more hydrogen. “The problem is that such advanced electrolysers must use large amounts of expensive and rare elements like iridium,” says Simonov. “There is just not enough iridium to build these devices on a massive, terawatt scale.”

Having low-cost renewable electricity helps solve this problem.

“We can replace what is essentially an unavailable element with something that does not work quite as well and requires a bit more energy, but is much cheaper and plentiful,” Simonov adds. “In this way one can more than compensate for any energy inefficiencies this solution might have.”

[dgul]

Well, Goldman has just announced they expect gold to go up this year.  So expect it to go down for a bit.

[Errol]

It's obviously going to go down at some point. A nice drop back to $1800 or something would be good.

But in the long term all this is just noise.

[Transistor Man]

5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

never heard of niobium, is it close to knobium on the periodic table?

Superconductors and Magnets, and superalloys. Very useful.

[Lightscribe]

On 27/07/2020 at 17:30, leonardratso said:

BTC might make it to my £8200 sell point, hopefully make it to my total sellout at £8500.

Knew i should have stuck with eth rather than pissing about with BCH+LTC+OMG, but hey, easy come easy go.

wow, just blew straight thru it like it didnt exist, just a smidge off £8500 now.

1) Stick to $ in crypto, easy to track support levels , MACD and USD movement reactions (hence this bull run in BTC)

2) In regards to alt coins, yes BCH but tbh if your looking to trade, then use the high volume coins/tokens. Instead of LTC and OMG, trade LINK and ADA (both have fallen back due to BTC jump.) I've been trading ADA today bought 10,000 from 1250 sats and just sold a moment ago at 1330.

[leonardratso]

32 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

1) Stick to $ in crypto, easy to track support levels , MACD and USD movement reactions (hence this bull run in BTC)

2) In regards to alt coins, yes BCH but tbh if your looking to trade, then use the high volume coins/tokens. Instead of LTC and OMG, trade LINK and ADA (both have fallen back due to BTC jump.) I've been trading ADA today bought 10,000 from 1250 sats and just sold a moment ago at 1330.

aye, im only playing with whats left, so only £250 left in now, stuck a grand in a while back across those 4 and keep cashing out and just bringing the money back, ill wait for it to tank back and just go back in with the seed money and rinse/repeat, just cant be arsed to watch it so just set sell ladders all the way up once ive bought something.

[leonardratso]

back the truckup, the anti-barometer is back, i know its ZH, but this guy was always on the wrong side;

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gartman-im-getting-out-gold

 

 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

back the truckup, the anti-barometer is back, i know its ZH, but this guy was always on the wrong side;

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gartman-im-getting-out-gold

 

 

Please don't let this be the time he get's something right...I only know his name from ZH but I got the impression he is a perfect "anti-barometer"!

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Please don't let this be the time he get's something right...I only know his name from ZH but I got the impression he is a perfect "anti-barometer"!

i bloody hope not, there again a broken clock is right twice a day, hopefully hes the broken clock with no hands.

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, kibuc said:

Your comment just tanked the silver market. 

I just had a look at the price after I made this comment and you were right, by $2 oz!....sorry guys but I had to have my chance to get in this week after missing it last week by being on holiday :-)......I note @Harley made the additional comment about other industrial metals, but it doesn't help my understanding with my initial question I.e why when demand is going to be dropping?

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

and GDXJ.

I sold a bunch at 62.  Someone timed the top to perfection when they bought off me.  betcha it was a robinhooder...

Hence my comment yesterday regarding gold price and Radio 4!

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

We currently can't buy that, maybe try again once corona stuff has calmed down"

I have noticed that this appears to be the new `Brexit` excuse, with banks, post office and council offices running shortened hours "due to Coronavirus"

[Transistor Man]

2 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Superconductors and Magnets, and superalloys. Very useful.

I’m quite a good all-around engineer. Semis, electronics, materials, nuclear, a bit of structural. 

A decade ago, My employer sent me to France to do a consultancy job. On arrival, I was immediately whisked into a meeting, where a guy gets up and says: “the man from England has arrived to design the superconducting magnet feeder....”.

The what? 

[Sasquatch]

Been following an auction of 4 sovereigns on ebay. Sold for £1,650 equating to £412.50 each.

Silver Britannias going for £26 to £27 each.

Pretty hefty numbers.

Postage costs on top.

 

[Wheeler]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

I just had a look at the price after I made this comment and you were right, by $2 oz!....sorry guys but I had to have my chance to get in this week after missing it last week by being on holiday :-)......I note @Harley made the additional comment about other industrial metals, but it doesn't help my understanding with my initial question I.e why when demand is going to be dropping?

I think like all things it is the interaction between supply and demand. You're correct in that a substantial demand for silver is industrial but on the other side of the scales is the fact that most silver production is as a byproduct from other industrial metals such as zinc and copper. So as those mines stop producing the supply of silver can fall faster than the demand for it. 

Couple this with the currently small market for investment silver and it doesn't need much of the bond or main equity market money to head into silver for the price to shoot up.

If the move towards green energy picks up then this would boost the industrial demand substantially just as the supply was falling leading to the hoped for (by me at least) leap in the silver price.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

A decade ago, My employer sent me to France to do a consultancy job.

I trust as a seasoned consultant faced with such a challenge, you persuaded them they actually needed something more amenable.  Or at least that it was not the design that was crucial but the change management required!  

[Harley]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I note @Harley made the additional comment about other industrial metals, but it doesn't help my understanding with my initial question I.e why when demand is going to be dropping?

For the avoidance of doubt, I haven't an effing clue why.  Some things go up and some things go down.  Some you make enough to pay the rent, others make you live in a tent.  All very curious and mysterious, just like cement. 

[Bricks & Mortar]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

.....I note @Harley made the additional comment about other industrial metals, but it doesn't help my understanding with my initial question I.e why when demand is going to be dropping?

My speculation: 

Industrial metals rising - being bought by people who believe in a V-shaped industrial recovery, powered by printed money and governnment promises to point the printed money at industry.

Precious metals rising - being bought by people who see future inflation caused by the money printing.

Within both commodity classes, there are investors who expect a deflationary collapse, but are putting their money in for now, hoping to get out closer to the top.  And there are investors who think it's an inflationary stairway to heaven from here, and are putting their money in for the longer term.

[wherebee]

35 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

My speculation: 

Industrial metals rising - being bought by people who believe in a V-shaped industrial recovery, powered by printed money and governnment promises to point the printed money at industry.

Precious metals rising - being bought by people who see future inflation caused by the money printing.

Within both commodity classes, there are investors who expect a deflationary collapse, but are putting their money in for now, hoping to get out closer to the top.  And there are investors who think it's an inflationary stairway to heaven from here, and are putting their money in for the longer term.

So the question unanswered then is who is against industrial and precious metals?  What's the picture they are seeing?

[sancho panza]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver is still heading higher i think,its hardly owned and pull backs simply give entry points to people who know they have no silver.Iv been selling miners slowly into the jump,but will hold the rest now until the rally returns.I was tempted to sell my sons physical when it went over my $24 target as it would mean he could cut his mortgage in half and be down to 37% LTV,a few months after buying,but have decided not to.

Juat floating ideas for sell signals on PM's and was saying to someone earlier might be worth looking for some weakness in UST's/bottoming in DXY....UST's still very elevated.

I'm introigued that whislt DXY has sold off from 100 on 15/5/20,5 yr yield is actually down........interested on any theories why lower DXY hasn't translated into higher yields.....flight to safety....??

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Not much reaction in the miners to a c. 15% swing in the silver price, a lot of buyers there 

Interesting price action,big spike,big dump.,recovery to new normal.

[jamtomorrow]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Juat floating ideas for sell signals on PM's and was saying to someone earlier might be worth looking for some weakness in UST's/bottoming in DXY....UST's still very elevated.

I like this idea. Could recent PM action be *the* inflection point where Mr. Market finally wakes up to what's happening with "safe haven" asset classes? This sort of thing:

 

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

interested on any theories why lower DXY hasn't translated into higher yields.....flight to safety....??

"Expectations"? As in, market believes YCC cometh?

Edit to add: and if YCC indeed cometh, we'll be waiting a long time for that PM sell signal

[Harley]

16 hours ago, AWW said:

.....I've got a monster box of 2020 Brits on the way (ordered Friday) to sell to them when they do.

I'm looking to buy coin or bars (swap out my ETFs).  Any current info on the best places for gold/silver please?  I've looked at Chards, Coininvest, Bullion By Post (funny Ireland seems cheaper) , and gold.co.uk.  Gold coin premiums vary from 4% up but silver seems more like 25-30%?!

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm looking to buy coin or bars (swap out my ETFs).  Any current info on the best places for gold/silver please?  I've looked at Chards, Coininvest, Bullion By Post (funny Ireland seems cheaper) , and gold.co.uk.  Gold coin premiums vary from 4% up but silver seems more like 25-30%?!

As I have said a few times Physical Silver Bullion is a complete non starter in the UK due to the premiums and VAT.

[AWW]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm looking to buy coin or bars (swap out my ETFs).  Any current info on the best places for gold/silver please?  I've looked at Chards, Coininvest, Bullion By Post (funny Ireland seems cheaper) , and gold.co.uk.  Gold coin premiums vary from 4% up but silver seems more like 25-30%?!

Celtic Gold for VAT free silver. With gold, I usually just buy from the cheapest big dealer. Have used Atkinsons and Chards without issue.