Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

Yep - up 6.0% at one point this morning. Taking RDSB and the market as a whole with it.

Slowly slowly catchee monkee. When the NASDAQ collapses (hit a new all time high yesterday 10,902 pts) it will take everything with it.... including oils, telcos, potash, the lot....

I am sitting on the sidelines now building cash. 

Our time will come.

I still have not opened up my NAS leveraged x3 short yet - I reckon 11,000pts is a nice round number. In the year 2000 It was at 5000pts that the tipping point came:

“Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%, only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during the bubble“.

The US election is the key I think. 

What effect another 4 years of Trump.... or a new Democrat Government ....? 

V on a leveraged short don't those things have huge costs if held for more than a very short period, 

[Loki]

11 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

The key driver is how much cash I have. There is nothing worse than seeing a major correction and not having the ‘liquidity’ to take advantage.

I agree completely, this is the position I am in!  Although I am happy to sit in BP etc for as long as it takes, I am happier taking profits from more volatile stocks (Like HOC) Although as we chatted about earlier up thread, I don't do it too often and due to the small sums I have, I tend to just sell an entire holding.  (Although I did top slice RRE as I didn't begrudge the fees after a 60% gain )

Edit: Just topped up my REP holding. 

 

11 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

My goal:

To achieve 5%+ in capital growth (over inflation) per year plus an income from dividends each year for the next 30 years (to supplement a pension from 2030) I would be a very happy man. Is that realistic?

Sounds not only realistic but a moderate goal that won't see you making too many/any risky calls

[CVG]

41 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

The key driver is how much cash I have. There is nothing worse than seeing a major correction and not having the ‘liquidity’ to take advantage.

True. And that's why cash is NOT trash.

[jamtomorrow]

Aside from mechanically acquiring a few targets based on ladders I set 3 months ago, I'm inclined to sit this one out until the liquidity shock created by the CBs meets the bulk of the solvency shock coming back up "the pipes" from the other direction.

Only thing that would change my mind is a clear signal that something more predictable - and therefore "tradeable" to a simpleton lazy-arse investor like me - is on the cards than general crashing of waves and pandemonium.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, jamtomorrow said:

Aside from mechanically acquiring a few targets based on ladders I set 3 months ago, I'm inclined to sit this one out until the liquidity shock created by the CBs meets the bulk of the solvency shock coming back up "the pipes" from the other direction.

Only thing that would change my mind is a clear signal that something more predictable - and therefore "tradeable" to a simpleton lazy-arse investor like me - is on the cards than general crashing of waves and pandemonium.

Good way of looking at it 

[CVG]

6 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

I agree - in the short term.

It is if you hold it for any length of time.

Dash for assets from 2021-2030 coming.

Always keep around 20% in cash. You never know when the next opportunity will present itself. And you can always mitigate the worst of the trash part by putting it in premium bonds and notice accounts.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

@Talking Monkey

Yep - definitely hold for no longer than 2-3 days and only if market is falling every day. 
 

“in and out” where you can.

This is the first rise (albeit small) on the short in a long time. 

I am starting to think the better choice is to put the few £K I’d planned to put into this into POTs instead -  after if/when the big sell off comes.

Far too fucking risky as you say.
 

Money would be better spent going long after the next  crash (if it ever comes). 
Also I’d lose some of my ISA allowance for the year.

However a part of me would love to do THE BIG SHORT! 😉 🐻 

I think a huge sell off will eventually come but shorting that as you say is risky if the timing is wrong. The alternative strategy to allocate that cash to buying reflation stocks sounds eminently sensible. Personally I don't see the Nasdaq on the brink of a huge down move at the moment and would be surprised if it does -20% this side of the US election.

An alternative to the leveraged ETF short maybe to short via spreadbet, both have pros and cons I suppose

If there was a no leverage short Nasdaq ETF through HL I would defo have a go at that at some point

 

 

 

[Hardhat]

Sold out of HOCM today at +55% - hadn't gone anywhere for a week or so and I want to lock in some silver profits.

Holding FRES - currently up 66% - in case silver runs further. But will look to take profits in this also in the near future.

GDX / GDXJ up 55% each but these are long term holds - will add on a pullback.

BP has had a nice rally - what do people think about buying at the current price?

[DownwardSpiral]

3 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Sold out of HOCM today at +55% - hadn't gone anywhere for a week or so and I want to lock in some silver profits.

Holding FRES - currently up 66% - in case silver runs further. But will look to take profits in this also in the near future.

GDX / GDXJ up 55% each but these are long term holds - will add on a pullback.

BP has had a nice rally - what do people think about buying at the current price?

I am happy to sit through any pullback with GDXJ, might slice a little off if it adds another 25% from here, but in the grand scheme of things I don’t see the hassle of timing a pullback as worth it. Same as you, will probably just add more at that point.

[AWW]

.

[Sugarlips]

Thought this was a good chat to reflect on where we are at, helped me tie together the unexpected rise in bonds to come that will cause the trading bots to reverse course and auto-sell stocks indiscriminately, taking out all the Robinhoods as is a GFC event x3 in the next 60 days...also gold to pull back 30% before shooting ever higher

 

[reformed nice guy]

Here are my current buy points if anyone is interested.

A lot of them are very low and would require significant falls before I would buy in. Some are shares I currently own and want to top up (Fanuc, BP, Shell etc), while others are ones I do not own but think have longer term value at the right price (Alphabet, amazon, SAP, visa etc)

Just putting out ideas, might be completely wrong!

Alphabet	google	1200
amazon	tech	1500
Angloamerican	mining	1000
ANTOFAGASTA HOLDINGS	mining	600
Baidu	chintech	85
Basf SE	chem	€45
BHP group	mining	1200
BP	oil	250
British American Tobacco	fags	2000
BROOKFIELD ASSET MNGT	renewabl	40
BT	telecoms	85
Caterpillar Inc	industry	80
Centrica	energy	25
Chevron	oil	$80
conocophillips	oil	$37.5
Dow	chems	$25
Drax		140
Equinor	oil	120NOK
Evonik	chems	€17.5
EVRAZ PLC	steel	130
Exxon	oil	$40
Fanuc	robots	16000
Gazprom	oil	$4.5
Glencore	mining	120
IMPERIAL BRANDS GROUP	fags	1100
Johnson Matthey	chem	1700
JD.com	chintech	45
K & S AG	chem	€5
Kaz	mining	300
Mastercard	finance	$250
Microsoft	tech	$150
Mosaic	potash	$10
Nutrien	potash	$42
Petroleo Brasileiro	oil	$6
Repsol	oil	€6.5
Rio Tinto	mining	3250
RoyalMail	logistics	110
SAP	tech	100
Schlumberger	oil	15
SSE	energy	1000
Shell	oil	1000
Siemens		€80
Solvay	chems	€63
Telefonica	telecoms	€3.5
Telia	telecoms	28 SEK
Tencent	tech	$50
TSMC	tech	50
UNILEVER	consumer	3000
Visa	finance	$160
Vodafone	telecoms	100
Yara	chems	300nok

[leonardratso]

hehe, fags

[Loki]

David Hunter back on Palisade Radio.  Good listen.

 

[Castlevania]

34 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Here are my current buy points if anyone is interested.

A lot of them are very low and would require significant falls before I would buy in. Some are shares I currently own and want to top up (Fanuc, BP, Shell etc), while others are ones I do not own but think have longer term value at the right price (Alphabet, amazon, SAP, visa etc)

Just putting out ideas, might be completely wrong!

Alphabet	google	1200
amazon	tech	1500
Angloamerican	mining	1000
ANTOFAGASTA HOLDINGS	mining	600
Baidu	chintech	85
Basf SE	chem	€45
BHP group	mining	1200
BP	oil	250
British American Tobacco	fags	2000
BROOKFIELD ASSET MNGT	renewabl	40
BT	telecoms	85
Caterpillar Inc	industry	80
Centrica	energy	25
Chevron	oil	$80
conocophillips	oil	$37.5
Dow	chems	$25
Drax		140
Equinor	oil	120NOK
Evonik	chems	€17.5
EVRAZ PLC	steel	130
Exxon	oil	$40
Fanuc	robots	16000
Gazprom	oil	$4.5
Glencore	mining	120
IMPERIAL BRANDS GROUP	fags	1100
Johnson Matthey	chem	1700
JD.com	chintech	45
K & S AG	chem	€5
Kaz	mining	300
Mastercard	finance	$250
Microsoft	tech	$150
Mosaic	potash	$10
Nutrien	potash	$42
Petroleo Brasileiro	oil	$6
Repsol	oil	€6.5
Rio Tinto	mining	3250
RoyalMail	logistics	110
SAP	tech	100
Schlumberger	oil	15
SSE	energy	1000
Shell	oil	1000
Siemens		€80
Solvay	chems	€63
Telefonica	telecoms	€3.5
Telia	telecoms	28 SEK
Tencent	tech	$50
TSMC	tech	50
UNILEVER	consumer	3000
Visa	finance	$160
Vodafone	telecoms	100
Yara	chems	300nok

Some of those (e.g. ConocoPhillips) are below your buy price?

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

On Potash miners DB I have Nutrien, Mosaic, OCI, KS all in roughly equal amounts and then a little bit of Intrepid. Any other names worth looking at. 

 

Look good there,i have Mosaic and Nutrien much bigger holdings than the others,i like Nutrien for its agro business as well,and probably wont sell them even if potash runs hard.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

Thought this was a good chat to reflect on where we are at, helped me tie together the unexpected rise in bonds to come that will cause the trading bots to reverse course and auto-sell stocks indiscriminately, taking out all the Robinhoods as is a GFC event x3 in the next 60 days...also gold to pull back 30% before shooting ever higher

 

This is a great video, don't scroll past!

[DurhamBorn]

BP strategy looks decent to me and i like the way they are going to use free cash to buy back stock once debts are at 35bill.Thats stops them spunking it all away.Lots wont like the divi cut,but as well all got at todays price and below we are looking at around 5.5% yield.Im aiming for 6.5%pa return over the cycle,and i think BP might buy back £3.00+s worth of shares minimum over the cycle.I think £7.00+ is very likely as a target,£10+ possible by 2028/30 

They said the divi would be set,but i think by 2024/25 they will be starting to produce that much cash that they wont do all share buy backs and the divi will increase.

 

[janch]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

........due to the small sums I have, I tend to just sell an entire holding. 

This is me also!  I just sold FRES and SLP (Sylvania Platinum) and HOC is next.  AJ Bell have an offer of no selling fees from 3 - 14 August so as I was about to sell anyway I'm taking advantage of the offer.  I would prefer to top-slice but funds don't allow this approach (yet!). 

I didn't have enough spare cash in March to go on a buying spree but am poised ready for the next dip...........