Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hardhat]

Just now, Paulie said:

I will have a hunt in the basement.

I started this a while ago to track a basket of clean energy investments. Haven't updated in a while, as I got addicted to oil.

[Paulie]

1 minute ago, Hardhat said:

I started this a while ago to track a basket of clean energy investments. Haven't updated in a while, as I got addicted to oil.

Thanks for flagging this up. Great for starters. I am also addicted to cheap & value, which seems to be oil presently. Just mindful of those damn socialists screwing up the world left right and centre these days. 

[Chewing Grass]

FTSE off like a rocket today, Pension Fund doing £20 every 5 minutes at the mo, did £42 every 5 minutes yesterday.

All that money printing liquidity is going somewhere and it ain't property at the moment.

Now this won't last long unless folks get extra money in real terms to spend.

[Boon]

Hugh Hendry has an interesting rant:

 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Boon said:

Hugh Hendry has an interesting rant:

 

Twitter really is the most pointless platform I have ever seen.

1. How hard would it be

2. To just have an option

3. To do long posts
 

4. To save all this bollocks

Interesting link though thanks!  

 

[DoINeedOne]

Repsol back in the green 

17 minutes ago, Loki said:

Twitter really is the most pointless platform I have ever seen.

1. How hard would it be

2. To just have an option

3. To do long posts
 

4. To save all this bollocks

Interesting link though thanks!  

 

Twitter can be great for following people you would never normally get to, but the problem is you need to clean out the shit every now and again

Also create a block keyword list - my twitter block list is along the lines off

Covid, Covid19, Covid-19, brexit, remoaners, brexiters, trump, biden, trans, gender, blm 

 

Makes the experience so much better

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Repsol back in the green 

Twitter can be great for following people you would never normally get to, but the problem is you need to clean out the shit every now and again

Also create a block keyword list - my twitter block list is along the lines off

Covid, Covid19, Covid-19, brexit, remoaners, brexiters, trump, biden, trans, gender, blm 

 

Makes the experience so much better

 that block list.  That's good for life in general 

[Barnsey]

Anyone else getting a little twitchy about how fast their share holdings are going up, keep telling myself not to take profits already. Just have this niggling feeling we're going to get some big setback on the virus front, current inclination is the mutated Danish mink version being detected elsewhere.

The liquidity is strong yes, but it took positive virus news to kick it into action.  Could the opposite do the reverse?

[Loki]

I don't understand why the DXY is spiking.  I'm not worried just curious if anyone knows the mechanics behind it

@Barnsey I'm not going to change anything, just yet, if that helps

[Boon]

Only thing I can think is that there will be volatility. The risk in taking profits though is that prices may not come back.

Oil shares and telecoms are up by a lot, but in the bigger context of things are still really close to the lows.

RDSB at £11 seems quite high now after seeing it below £10 for ages, but not long ago appeared to be a massive bargain.

[jamtomorrow]

23 minutes ago, Loki said:

I don't understand why the DXY is spiking.  I'm not worried just curious if anyone knows the mechanics behind it

Everyone and his dog suddenly wants to trade the vaccine news -> spike in demand for liquidity?

[StrugglingMillennial]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

If i had done a rubber band list on oilies Repsol would of been top of the list.Hated sector,hated home country etc etc.We might see a day late in the cycle where companies like Repsol put on todays price/market cap in a few days.

Lots more volatility is likely,but its still nice to see those funds all selling just before the big jump in the sector.

 

Yes it was interesting watching the funds sell up, they must be kicling themselves.

Thanks for suggesting them, i wouldn't have looked at them otherwise 🍻

[Loki]

23 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Everyone and his dog suddenly wants to trade the vaccine news -> spike in demand for liquidity?

I thought that but the vaccine news just sounds like 'after the fact' rationalisation of the liquidity surge (I think @DurhamBorn said the same) and it's even boosted my reflation portfolio which has no FAANG/medical stocks.

I was just expecting DXY to drop as the reflation shares rise but maybe it's a lagging indicator

[Popuplights]

53 minutes ago, Boon said:

RDSB at £11 seems quite high now after seeing it below £10 for ages,

Not when your average holding is £14.50 It doesn't....😢

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Not when your average holding is £14.50 It doesn't....😢

Same here with BP!

Highest price paid: 484.08p

Lowest price paid: 288.70p

Weighted average price paid: 357.43p

Just got ignore that, collect the divis...and wait.

[Boon]

Ha yeah. Still well down on BT, there will always be something that is ****.

FTSE closing in on 6300 now. Seems like it was only 2 weeks ago that 5500 would be breached. 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Boon said:

Ha yeah. Still well down on BT, there will always be something that is ****.

FTSE closing in on 6300 now. Seems like it was only 2 weeks ago that 5500 would be breached. 

I wonder if the S&P will bounce on the open, it dropped back again yesterday.  I don't own any, but I have before for a while and it's my go-to index for seeing how David Hunter's forecast is doing 

[Hardhat]

Within 2% of being in profit on BP. Was 25% down last week, average buy price of 255p

Steep rally! Let's see how the next five years go 

[supernaut]

Was around 7k down last week now about 3k up overall.Bought both bp and shell at the lows and had a bit left to deploy if went lower.

Still down on bp and shell as a whole but not far from either being in the black. 

My biggest mistake was exiting rolls royce at a 1k loss when they announced the rights issue. 2days after I exited went through the roof. Already been through this rights issue with IAG and wasnt keen on throwing more money at RR 

[DoINeedOne]

Nice to recover losses and see some green but if these are longterm holds like @DurhamBorn said would be nice to buy more at the lows with dividends etc....

 

 

Price going up then you realise your not going be buying at them lows with the dividends 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Anyone else getting a little twitchy about how fast their share holdings are going up, keep telling myself not to take profits already. Just have this niggling feeling we're going to get some big setback on the virus front, current inclination is the mutated Danish mink version being detected elsewhere.

Yes, all seems a little too neat and tidy doesn't it? An epidemiologist on the news last night said it was highly unusual to release any results during an ongoing trial of the type Pfizer are currently undertaking, because any news/discussions will affect the result (double-blinds, etc). But already we are being told that the potential new drug will need special -70c fridges for storage in the gp surgeries. And then i hear that the married couple who own BioNTech - they did the r&d for Pfizer - are now in top 100 richest Germans.

Is this story hype ...to help create the meltup? I notice the SP500 seems to be having trouble breaking out above the 3600 level (its 3rd attempt in 3-months), maybe this will just be another damp squib.  

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I've been reading this thread for years now. Thanks obviously to DB and everyone else. I imagine DB to have that air of calm serenity that some religious leaders have. He has seen the future because it is written (in the maths). The day to day fluctuations are of little consequence when the destination is fixed.

I don't have that advantage as I don't have the same depth of knowledge. However, this thread will likely change my life for the better. My capital is small compared to many of you but I am now saving more. I now have the confidence to take greater control long term. I haven't checked my pension this week but it will be up substantially. I have no intention of selling anything short term, except HZM if it takes off like a lear jet!

I note that the pound is rising against the dollar. Do we see this as something likely to continue up to and beyond any crash next year? I want to increase foreign holdings but am firmly in the camp of buying low to hold. Like others here I want low prices and high dividends.

[supernaut]

I feel happier this week than last. Psychologically dont want to go back in the red. Even with knowing the reflation play the whole thread is based around and why I kept buying in. 

Funny thing the mind, having part of my mind wanting lower lows to buy in more and the other part not liking all the red is interesting to work through. 

[DoINeedOne]

#Gazprom will sell spot natural gas to Turkish gas market for the first time since 1986. as the replies mention

[sancho panza]

23 hours ago, Junction25 said:

can anybody recommend shares which have would give me dividend and are fairly safe companies? 

I'd go over the thread for the last few months and you'll see the same names mentioned.Asking for recommendations is tough because we're not insured to give financial advice.

There are no safe companies.There aren't even that many safe bonds either imho.If you want safety then cash is the place