Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[BurntBread]

On 28/11/2020 at 16:07, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been thinking a lot about the next/this next cycle end.This cycle is running for me now so I'm more interested in looking at the end of the roadmap now.

I have been and am very very scared of what the macro position will be.However smoke is clearing a bit and a roadmap out of systemic collapse. I think it will involve taxation, a basic income, and a lowering of working hours.

I think we might see 10 hours a week citizens income,and a reduction in hours worked in full time workers.

I'm going to be doing a lot more work on the end of the roadmap the next couple of years,but for now I don't want to go into it too much as it doesn't affect us yet, won't for several years and doesn't change the investment thesis at all for a long time.

Possibly relevant news item on R4 this morning: Unilever is trialling a 4 day week for its office workers in New Zealand, at the same pay. The trial will last one year, and if successful, will be rolled out to other countries.

I'm guessing that Unilever, being Dutch (well, Anglo-Dutch) has experience of the "polder-model" from the early 1980's. When faced with the possibility of rising unemployment during that recession, the Dutch government & unions introduced "ADV days", where everyone got 12 days extra holiday each year, at no reduction in pay.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

"The plumbing of the economy".

It is good stuff - no wonder they're nicking it.

"Economy gone down the toilet pan" more likely!

[arrow]

7 hours ago, Panda said:

https://www.google.com/search?q=kistos+share+price&oq=kistos&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l2j69i60j69i61.3566j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=if

Awful hey kid.

Me bad.  Big kisses.

Hehehe. Mwah!

Cattle Prod's posts are invaluable. They are informative and provide insight into the oil/gas industry.

This thread is valuable in that it is (mostly) the opposite of other share forums. On the whole, there aren't stock pumpers and share shorters trying to get scare people into selling or buying. I do admire traders, but posts saying they made x profit on such a share aren't that useful. Good for you that you made a profit, but I'd much rather read Cattle Prod's view of oil/gas reserves, depletion, supply problems, oil fields and companies.

As I've said, this thread is valuable in that it discusses macro trends and investments, there are other threads that were created to discuss trading, The fact that there are few posting, if any, in those threads shouls tell you something.

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, Loki said:

Watch for "liquidity in the pipes" or something similar. Then we've got the bastards. 

For final confimration it's got to be

"Is Centrica CNA the bargain buy of the year, to take advantage of rising gas prices?"

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

For final confimration it's got to be

"Is Centrica CNA the bargain buy of the year, to take advantage of rising gas prices?"

Yes, CNA price target 205p.

[AWW]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Bit off topic... but that's a good idea, and It works - It's been done before - Google 'canine rape culture'!!!

Completely off-topic, but thanks for the belly laugh at this: Wilson writes that 'dog parks are petri dishes for canine rape culture' noting that she witnessed a dog rape roughly every 60 minutes. To ensure that she accurately knew the genders of every dog, Wilson makes the outlandish claim that she "closely and respectfully examined the genitals of slightly fewer than ten thousand dogs."

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

For final confimration it's got to be

"Is Centrica CNA the bargain buy of the year, to take advantage of rising gas prices?"

I've already loaded up on CNA, you'd be a fool not to at these prices

I think most people on this thread would suddenly agree.

[AWW]

13 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Yes, CNA price target 205p.

Hmm, just slightly less than the total consideration when I binned off my 5,000 CNA shares. You live and learn.

[Loki]

AFC now beaten 5 year price

[JMD]

59 minutes ago, AWW said:

Completely off-topic, but thanks for the belly laugh at this: Wilson writes that 'dog parks are petri dishes for canine rape culture'. To ensure that she accurately knew the genders of every dog, Wilson makes the outlandish claim that she "closely and respectfully examined the genitals of slightly fewer than ten thousand dogs."

Do you think she was taking the 'KYC' methodology to its absolute limit?

To attempt to get back on topic - re. this year's self-inflicted Covid economic-control madness - and kinda also related to above(?) - with government minister for vaccines Nadhim Zahawi 'sniffing round'(!), it is only a matter of time before we all feel the constraint of the government leash (or will that be immunity passport lanyard; ...first they came for our Christmas!!).

Ok, i'll stop with the the silly metaphors. Link below.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjFjIq2xqztAhVRTxUIHaoTCPgQ0PADegQIDxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Fcovid-19-people-who-refuse-to-get-vaccine-could-be-denied-entry-to-venues-minister-suggests-12147306&usg=AOvVaw1kG_UdipkC8S2WOi_0DkjD

 

[geordie_lurch]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Do you think she was taking the 'KYC' methodology to its absolute limit?

To attempt to get back on topic - re. this year's self-inflicted Covid economic-control madness - and kinda also related to above(?) - with government minister for vaccines Nadhim Zahawi 'sniffing round'(!), it is only a matter of time before we all feel the constraint of the government leash (or will that be immunity passport lanyard; ...first they came for our Christmas!!).

Ok, i'll stop with the the silly metaphors. Link below.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjFjIq2xqztAhVRTxUIHaoTCPgQ0PADegQIDxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Fcovid-19-people-who-refuse-to-get-vaccine-could-be-denied-entry-to-venues-minister-suggests-12147306&usg=AOvVaw1kG_UdipkC8S2WOi_0DkjD

 

I'd say you are better off joining some of us in this other thread where I posted about that yesterday and Gove is apparently today trying back track from it. Btw I agree it seems to me that it's all related a la Great Reset, digital central bank currencies etc

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

For final confimration it's got to be

"Is Centrica CNA the bargain buy of the year, to take advantage of rising gas prices?"

Was it you Democorruptcy that wrote on here that you had bought more of the Big-C when it went lower last year? I am seriously underwater with them, but confess am not brave enough to buy more. However, if this thread's energy thesis is 100% on the button, and this is a '...bargain buy', i really-really probably should.

[Bricormortis]

Strong turn around in the metals happening. Platinum has been rising for a couple of weeks. Silver up over 5% this morning.

[geordie_lurch]

4 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Strong turn around in the metals happening. Platinum has been rising for a couple of weeks. Silver up over 5% this morning.

Not sure it's going to have any momentum to get back up towards £19.50 where it was less than 30 days ago - it's currently trying to get back over £17.50 never mind over £22 where it was back in August

[JMD]

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I'd say you are better off joining some of us in this other thread where I posted about that yesterday and Gove is apparently today trying back track from it. Btw I agree it seems to me that it's all related a la Great Reset, digital central bank currencies etc

 

Thanks Geordie_Lurch, i confess that i am sometimes guilty of going off-thread now and again, but i think my posts are sort-of tolerated/ignored(?)... and hope i don't do it too often? But in my defense, i do use the macro discussions from contributors on this thread to inform my investing strategy. For example, a big realisation  change for me this year came from all the 'covid control madness', it made me realise how easily people (not me of course!) are manipulated, and what may be ahead in terms of the 'great reset' you mention.

However, i'm not a conspiracy person, what i mean is i tend to lean more toward people like Neil Howe, who i think has a generational theory that offers hope, even though it will still involve a very bumpy path.    

The thing is, even the respected big-macro investment guys like Mike Green say (on the end game podcast) that for him the global incompetence of the world's government's - 'all making the same mistakes' - causes him to think there must be something laying hidden below what they are doing, he says he can't yet elaborate. DB says to ignore the political, i.e. the politics follows the economics. I agree. In the meantime i just amuse myself by attempting to join the dots.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Not sure it's going to have any momentum to get back up towards £19.50 where it was less than 30 days ago - it's currently trying to get back over £17.50 never mind over £22 where it was back in August

Someone change David H's Twitter password for fucks sake

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, Loki said:

Someone change David H's Twitter password for fucks sake

Not sure I follow?

[JMD]

16 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Strong turn around in the metals happening. Platinum has been rising for a couple of weeks. Silver up over 5% this morning.

I hope platinum does do more, i bought lots a while back and really want to sell after it gives me a decent profit. Holding silver long term is enough metal for me.

Oh (and shoot me down), but i notice that btc is also up.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Not sure I follow?

A macro guy on twitter. Shit hot on macro. Abysmal on short term. Every time he's tweeted about the PMs it's dived shortly after

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Was it you Democorruptcy that wrote on here that you had bought more of the Big-C when it went lower last year? I am seriously underwater with them, but confess am not brave enough to buy more. However, if this thread's energy thesis is 100% on the button, and this is a '...bargain buy', i really-really probably should.

I've bought and sold at a profit a few times. Last one buying low 30's selling at 50 this year. Overall though if I sold my holding today I would be down on them, due to a technical error, otherwise known as a fuck up. I was going to buy some in both my ISA and SIPP earlier this year but somehow finished up buying twice as many as intended in my SIPP. Then the price dropped and I got stuck with them as I don't like to sell at a loss.

[Froggy2000]

Thinking about additional sectors to focus on, in order to add more diversification to oil, telcos, silver etc.  What about agriculture?  Could this be the ultimate decomplex trade/inflation hedge?  

On the demand side we have a (still just about) growing population that would love to eat more meat if it could afford to.  On the supply side we have ecological issues such as soil erosion, and demand from biofuels will come back if oil heads above $60/70.

Potash is of course one way.   But what about more direct investment in agricultural land?  

The UK seems out of the question, since farmland here is boosted in price based on subsidies and lifestyles of the rich etc, but what about other investor friendly jurisdictions with lots of land like the USA, Canada, Australia?

Are there investment funds for this? Or would it be direct purchase only?

Apologies if this has been discussed already, but I couldn't find much looking through the thread.

Interested to hear peoples thoughts!

[Ma2]

18 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

  But what about more direct investment in agricultural land?  
 

I have the following in my watchlist, they have been at some good prices but I keep missing my targets as have to get approval at work to trade. I'd like a few plays on woodland too and some of these hold both.

ABF (Sugar amongst other things..Primark!)

LAND (Agri REIT)

GHE (Alternative asset mgmt)

BG (farm all the way to consumer goods)

CAM (crops, forestry)

Be good to hear of any others

[Ma2]

Got an email from the school today, the Government introducing a new programme trying to boost it's economics service. Interesting you only neeed a few GCSEs to apply for the degree and apprenticeship. Hopefully they get a bit of real life experience before they start to make policy for us

The lad wants to be a tattoo artist though... Told him this would be a good thing to fall back on, then realised just how old I sounded

"Applications will be opening on 14th December 2020 for the Degree Economist Apprenticeship Programme with the Government Economic Service. 

With 70+ vacancies available, this is a brilliant opportunity to work in a central government department or agency on some of the most important social, environmental and economic issues our country faces."

WHY WORK WITH US?

Extremely varied opportunities leading to a wide range of careers, such as journalism, analysis and policy advisory

Study for your economics degree at the University of Kent, with quality teaching and world-leading academics

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Got an email from the school today, the Government introducing a new programme trying to boost it's economics service. Interesting you only neeed a few GCSEs to apply for the degree and apprenticeship. Hopefully they get a bit of real life experience before they start to make policy for us

The lad wants to be a tattoo artist though... Told him this would be a good thing to fall back on, then realised just how old I sounded

"Applications will be opening on 14th December 2020 for the Degree Economist Apprenticeship Programme with the Government Economic Service. 

With 70+ vacancies available, this is a brilliant opportunity to work in a central government department or agency on some of the most important social, environmental and economic issues our country faces."

WHY WORK WITH US?

Extremely varied opportunities leading to a wide range of careers, such as journalism, analysis and policy advisory

Study for your economics degree at the University of Kent, with quality teaching and world-leading academics

It must be wonderful to charge people to get on board your very own scapegoat production line.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

It must be wonderful to charge people to get on board your very own scapegoat production line.

More bureacratic top down economic diktats, joy!