Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bricormortis]

Bit coin drops 11% today.

 

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Bit coin drops 11% today.

 

yeah the to 200K pundits will now fuck off back under their rocks until the next rally.

 

same cycle plays out time after time - and also in mini cycles within cycles.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Also the relationship between gold and real rates.

I posted stuff about that last Autumn when Powell changed tack which made it the time to buy. I must have linked to a chart but not saved it as an attachment. I remember looking for it in August when I decided to sell but couldn't find it so made a 10yr/gold chart comparison in this post:

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Go to format tab, Line 2, y-axis position to right:

To invert the 30yr, type 1-a in the formula box (as it is a %)

 

Thats a very good correlation too. You could argue gold is currently lagging, perhaps indicating it's currently a technical correction? If the 30yr bond is the 'truth' etc etc

 

Tip: go to account tools underneath and save graph (you need to set up account but it's painless)

This is going to make my weekend........

Interesting to see the lag isn't that much when the market is moving to extremes eg 08/09/2016

[JMD]

Ferg is well worth a read. In fact this one covers most of our go-too's. And also has good links to Mike Green and Kinetic Horizon, who i admit are among two of my favorite money managers (unlike that Scottish (play/player!?!) hedgy, who shall not be named!!, ok a clue - HH).

Time Is A Flat Circle – TraderFerg

...oh and Includes some interesting table data, i had no idea pe's went so high back then... history repeating of course...

 

[Sugarlips]

Frizzers must’ve just told AEP it’s time to join the bandwagon!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/revenge-of-the-old-economy-is-this-the-start-of-the-next-commodity-supercycle-20201126-p56i3a.html

[Loki]

7 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

A Youtube Channel i enjoy is SkillBuilder Roger a plumber enjoys a good rant now and again here he mentions abit about hydrogen boilers currently being developed similar to updates from @Bobthebuilder

 

Excuse the brief thread drift

@Cattle Prod is it true oil companies have a research staff who's job is it to try and find a scientific thesis that proves CO2 doesn't cause global warming?

I was going to tag you and ask you in other thread but wasn't sure if you'd appreciate being dragged in

[Loki]

@Cattle Prod Thanks mate

[nirvana]

40 minutes ago, Loki said:

a scientific thesis that proves CO2 doesn't cause global warming?

this 'global warming' or 'climate change' is a hoax 

we should call it what it is: 'planet and wildlife murder'......look at what's happened over the last 50 years...

where's this other thread? I'll chip in with 'murdering, fat, selfish, human scum bastards'  

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

More mainstream media...this is happening a bit too quickly IMO. Next shakeout will see "Goldman was talking their book as usual, do the opposite, oil is over" in short order. Which is fine with me.

Agree,i think we will get another shakedown to remove weak hands etc.I think planting trees and carbon capture will actually both prove big winners.Planting trees is easily the cheapest form or lowering carbon.

 

[planit]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Was our conclusion too. Suits me, I love trees and forests. As well as chopping wood and fires 

I hate political influence on science. Planting trees should not count towards a company lowering it's carbon footprint unless they are paying for the tree to be there for 50 years followed by having it buried or something so there is no chance the carbon will be released.

The whole world could be 100% nuclear/green energy by now. Either we have a climate 'crisis' or we don't. If it's a 'crisis' and the whole of the world is doomed then nuclear is a clear choice. 

<rant>I don't believe that but I do think the answer to our problems is to accelerate the 4th gen nuclear reactors as much as possible. If everyone got behind this rather than the political shit-show we have then the world would be better off. </rant>

[Dogtania]

Had a quick skim and couldn't see it posted but got an email from AJ bell saying half price trading tomorrow for black Friday.  Thought post here as good as anywhere

If I can get organised should really use... Good for small timers like me, that reminds me not sure I can trade US shares on AJ and my HL one I've just remembered expires in Dec

 

 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

Thanks.  No I wasn't - born in the 80s, "self identify" as male.  Why do you ask?  I'm intrigued!

Because Mr Market likes to hurt the most people possible and one way is to wait until the past is past and so we now have a new cohort of money managers borm into the 1980s+ expansionist phase unaware of past times, of current cost accounting, cost push and demand pull, and all the inflationary rest, ready for the plucking! 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

If it's a new forest, that is replanted or allowed to reseed itself, it's still a net carbon sink.

I've no problem with nuclear either, I think it'll be an increasingly necessary base load and am invested accordingly.

Im going to buy the sector next i think as i used to simply use the ETF URA now banned thanks to the EU,i take it Cameco a main holding?.Im going to build Harmony Gold back up as well seeing as they now own nearly all the uranium reserves in South Africa.

[Bricormortis]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im going to buy the sector next i think as i used to simply use the ETF URA now banned thanks to the EU,i take it Cameco a main holding?.Im going to build Harmony Gold back up as well seeing as they now own nearly all the uranium reserves in South Africa.

Harmony is on special offer atm.

[Harley]

Anyone know of a stocks and shares ISA offering proper (primary) broad international market access for a reasonable price, better than Saxo or II, as most ISAs (and SIPPs) are IMO limiting people to the dog end of the markets.

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im going to buy the sector next i think as i used to simply use the ETF URA now banned thanks to the EU,i take it Cameco a main holding?.Im going to build Harmony Gold back up as well seeing as they now own nearly all the uranium reserves in South Africa.

The beauty of unintended consequences as banning all those ETFs was the best thing they did as it's forced me to go hunting for groups of individual international stocks and I've thereby avoided a lot of dross and maybe excess downstream counterparty, liquidity, and passive risk!

[Loki]

36 minutes ago, Harley said:

Because Mr Market likes to hurt the most people possible and one way is to wait until the past is past and so we now have a new cohort of money managers borm into the 1980s+ expansionist phase unaware of past times, of current cost accounting, cost push and demand pull, and all the inflationary rest, ready for the plucking! 

Why don't they know about it though? Poor education or wilful ignorance? They can't really be that interested in their chosen "career" if they think before 1980 we just exchanged shiny beads or something.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Dogtania said:

Had a quick skim and couldn't see it posted but got an email from AJ bell saying half price trading tomorrow for black Friday.  Thought post here as good as anywhere

If I can get organised should really use... Good for small timers like me, that reminds me not sure I can trade US shares on AJ and my HL one I've just remembered expires in Dec

 

 

Er, Mr AJ, the US markets do not close at 6pm, you just lock out your customers then!

https://market24hclock.com/#_

 

[DurhamBorn]

@Harley just the mention of cost push inflation gets me all excited.Its like seeing Gillian Anderson in her knickers the first time,or when the camera went up Anneka Rices bottom on Treasure hunt.Seminal moments in a lifetime.

M2 exploding,18 month lag to fully overcome deflation pressure.

 

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Why don't they know about it though? Poor education or wilful ignorance? They can't really be that interested in their chosen "career" if they think before 1980 we just exchanged shiny beads or something.

 

Appreciate versus understand - no contest and one of life's biggest delusions - You can read about things, if lucky, and you can have viserally lived through things, with the dirt in your nails, if old.

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Harley just the mention of cost push inflation gets me all excited.Its like seeing Gillian Anderson in her knickers the first time,or when the camera went up Anneka Rices bottom on Treasure hunt.Seminal moments in a lifetime.

M2 exploding,18 month lag to fully overcome deflation pressure.

 

Cost push versus demand pull - we once used to try to dissect the inflation all around us like eskimos do when surrounded by snow.

[Sasquatch]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Cameco main holding, a little Energy Fuels and Mega Uranium for fun. Thanks for that reminder about Harmony.

Ditto, I've got some Cameo and Yellow Cake but the Harmony Gold uranium angle is pretty interesting.

[leonardratso]

damn your tailings

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Ditto, I've got some Cameo and Yellow Cake but the Harmony Gold uranium angle is pretty interesting.

 Almost everyone ignores Harmony for uranium but it would be a very big uranium miner if it wanted to be.Even better it comes out with the gold.

Moab Khotsong represents one of the largest uranium reserves in South Africa having estimated reserves of 57.2 million tonnes of ore grading 0.058% uranium.^[1][2]