Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Underwhelmed]

16 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Basically a ratcheting up of KYC when you move crypto off-exchange:

 

Basically the governbankment mafia want their cut in the form of taxes. Also don't dispel notion that Armstrong CEO of Coinbase is a known FUD agent, he has a track record of making pronouncements that have an impact on the market, he was probably told to say something like this.

[jamtomorrow]

5 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

Basically the governbankment mafia want their cut in the form of taxes. Also don't dispel notion that Armstrong CEO of Coinbase is a known FUD agent, he has a track record of making pronouncements that have an impact on the market, he was probably told to say something like this.

Other possibility is it helps with exchange liquidity (which has dropped relentlessly since halving). 

[Democorruptcy]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Cost push inflation 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8988113/Families-face-council-tax-rise-100-fund-social-care-police-forces.html

5% tax increase,hammering ordinary workers to pay for people mostly sat at home for a year.Council tax is a disgusting tax,but the good thing about it is the suffering it causes people paying it makes them more and more resentful of councils.

Can only be a matter of time before they introduce a local income tax to cover council troughing. Start it at a penny and then once it's in they can keep upping it. Suggested Nov last year well before the extra covid expenses, which must have increased their funding gap, even though the governbankment have given them more money.

Quote

 

New council income tax is best way to plug multi-billion pound gap in social care, says IFS

New analysis by the economic think-tank warned that if council tax continues to rise with inflation - currently at 2 per cent a year - there will be a countrywide shortfall of £4 billion by the end of the next parliament. 

And the growing elderly population means the deficit will rise to £18 billion a year by the 2030s, the IFS warns. 

A new report published today (MON) suggests that councils should be allowed to raise additional funding through a local income tax of 1p on the £1, as an addition to national income tax. The move would raise £6 billion a year for councils, the IFS calculates.

Councils would then have a choice on whether to raise taxes or cut services, the think tank said.

Report author David Phillips, Associate Director at the IFS said: “Councils will rely on council tax and business rates for more of their funding going forwards. 

“And those revenues just don’t look like they will keep pace with the rising costs of services like adult social care – even with council tax bills going up at 4 per cert a year, which is double the rate of inflation. 

“That means finding billions more in funding to top up existing local tax revenues, even before thinking about new initiatives like free personal care.”

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/11/11/new-council-income-tax-is-best-way-to-plug-multi-billion-pound-gap-in-social-care-says-ifs?

 

 

[Bricormortis]

 Perhaps this would be a good a time as any to provide a tale from  a bubble gone bad.

A Dutch guy hosts a dinner and amongst the guests 3 ladies attend all of whom have lost their husbands to the plague which killed around one in eight people in Dutch Harlem. One of the ladies Geertruyt Schoudt was persuaded to buy some Switzer tulip bulbs, that is, not the best of bulbs but never the less having a value of about 2 houses or 2 fully fitted ships per lb weight. What could possibly go wrong eh ? Not having enough cash for her purchase one of the hosts agreed to under write the sale until Geertruyt could borrow enough cash. And so the sale completed. Having bought them she was offered a deal to  sell them, more or less on the spot which would have given her a 100 guilder instant profit. She declined. A few days later her bulbs were worthless.

Buying and selling was usually conducted in taverns, a few days after her purchase someone else tried to auction off a pound of bulbs down the pub, but there were no takers, the price was adjusted down but stilll no takers, word spread, panic set in and in a week or so the price was down a hundred fold and on down and down.

Moral of the story.....you cant loose with tulip bulbs...until you can...or summink.

[wherebee]

16 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Nice colour, classic FOMO. "I'll buy it because it's going up. What do you mean, it's not going up? Get rid of it all". Tulips are just an avatar for hoarding/resource grabbing behaviour long coded in our limbic brain. It's exactly the same a kid wanting sweets because his brother has them (so they must be really good). The trick is to recognise it: it was classic in Bitcoin in recent weeks. Price was shooting up so more and more people wanted in, despite a simple look at the last parabolic run tells you 30% corrections happened every time the weekly RSI hit about 85 (is basically a measure of FOMO). Now the new entrants are in the red, panicking, and seasoned holders will pick up their coins around 13/14,000. 

Our brains are poorly understood, and peoples self awareness of what their brain screams at them is even worse. A powerful tool in the kit is learning how to overrule that part of your brain, though even the greatest investors struggle with it (Druckenmiller in the dotcom bubble).

I knew I was an alien.

 

When I see a rush up, I actively feel a dislike for the 'thing', whether that be tattoos, apple stock, or bitcoin.  

[Democorruptcy]

26 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

 Perhaps this would be a good a time as any to provide a tale from  a bubble gone bad.

After reading the first line I honestly thought that was going to be about people catching covid.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I knew I was an alien.

 

When I see a rush up, I actively feel a dislike for the 'thing', whether that be tattoos, apple stock, or bitcoin.  

I am the same

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ok this is getting ridiculous,

are all these hacks suddenly reading this thread,even pinching the "roaring 20s"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/26/lockdown-savings-splurge-may-herald-new-roaring-twenties/

 

My offer still stands to be your intermediary / consultant to get ya royalty payments!

 

Can YOU afford my FAIR 10% commission FEE?

[Loki]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ok this is getting ridiculous,

are all these hacks suddenly reading this thread,even pinching the "roaring 20s"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/26/lockdown-savings-splurge-may-herald-new-roaring-twenties/

Very poor form to pass your thoughts off as their own if true. Sadly it was only a matter of time.

 

[StrugglingMillennial]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Nice colour, classic FOMO. "I'll buy it because it's going up. What do you mean, it's not going up? Get rid of it all". Tulips are just an avatar for hoarding/resource grabbing behaviour long coded in our limbic brain. It's exactly the same a kid wanting sweets because his brother has them (so they must be really good). The trick is to recognise it: it was classic in Bitcoin in recent weeks. Price was shooting up so more and more people wanted in, despite a simple look at the last parabolic run tells you 30% corrections happened every time the weekly RSI hit about 85 (is basically a measure of FOMO). Now the new entrants are in the red, panicking, and seasoned holders will pick up their coins around 13/14,000. 

Our brains are poorly understood, and peoples self awareness of what their brain screams at them is even worse. A powerful tool in the kit is learning how to overrule that part of your brain, though even the greatest investors struggle with it (Druckenmiller in the dotcom bubble).

Is there any where to view RSI charts of bitcoin and other stocks, i wouldn't mind adding this string to my bow.

Thanks

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

25 minutes ago, Loki said:

Very poor form to pass your thoughts off as their own if true. Sadly it was only a matter of time.

 

 

Oh i'd say it's TRUE! Look at this thread - it's had 1.3M views!!!

 

Years ago I was an avid reader of moneyweek and they did a questionnaire/ survey...1 of the QUESTIONS asked was about stock market sayings or something along those lines...

 

Anyway i wrote back with my ol time favorite quote: "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." yes its from the ****  Rothschilds!

 

AND guess what, it starts appearing in smarmy stepeck's articles at moneyweek!

 

Needless to say moneyweek will be getting f***all from me for FREE again!

 

BTW, I see VOD going UP ffs...just as i want them to go down to buy more!!! 

 

[kibuc]

I've got to admit I wasn't expecting this kind of action in PMs at all. This sector takes balls of steel sometimes.

[sleepwello'nights]

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

[geordie_lurch]

4 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

I am no expert but put a sell order in for 20% of my Merian Gold and Silver at HL yesterday morning as I felt we were due a correction and I wanted to take some profits. However by the time they actually complete the order there might not be much profit to take

[CVG]

5 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

I think that it relates to the false sense of security arising from the perceived favourable election result and continuing vaccine news. No need for safe havens!

[nirvana]

GOLD JUST SHIT THE BED, SILVER FOLLOWING 

OIL HOLDING ABOVE 45, COME ON THE OILIES!!!!!! 

PS I was tempted by another one of those cheap Pizzas at €1.23, gonna be getting fat at this rate of decadence  

[arrow]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think thats probably right @Barnsey .Another sharp down leg would shake out the weak hands.I also think we will keep seeing sharp pull backs and more and more will bail.Its likely we will see parabolic increases in reflation assets late in the cycle as people panic that the CBs have lost control of inflation.

I think the key question for people reading this thread is how to get from here to there.Do we to slice a few on sharp run ups?,then re-invest on a correction?,let dividends build and use those on the pull backs? .Its a very difficult question.

It is a difficult question. I think it depends both upon your personality and your confidence in trading.

Some posters on here are fantastic traders. They know how to time their entry and exit points.

Sadly, I'm not one of those. I used to buy way too early and sell way too late. Now, I buy and hold reinvesting dividends. I buy based on my convictions of a high commodity and inflation cycle coming. I still sometimes buy way too early  when I look at my investments, but I don't believe for one second that commodities such as oil are dead and so simply ladder into more Xom, shell, bp, etc

[arrow]

25 minutes ago, CVG said:

I think that it relates to the false sense of security arising from the perceived favourable election result and continuing vaccine news. No need for safe havens!

Oddly, I think it makes the probability of an 80% stock market collapse more likely. Biden , if senate allows him, may spend a lot more than Trump but be unable/unwilling to step in to stop falls due to his supporters' hatred of the stock market, whereas Trump would have been able to do more

[nirvana]

41 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

JP Morgan and Goldman......always those feckers manipulating prices.......not called the vampire squid for nothing.....

Nobody can predict the markets*, chart patterns are shite mainly, always follow the big boys  

Edit: *sorry except for @DurhamBornhe's pretty good 

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

And the solar farms - I was surprised and still unclear why the likes of TRIG went down so much in Feb/Mar - investor margin calls or some other worry?

When i was researching the renewables fund/trust sector, earlier this year, i found most of these funds invested in co's that had energy supply contracts dependent on government subsidy. Can't remember the details now, but most of the contracts were up for renewal over the coming 5 years or so. So buying into already expensive funds when their income/financials didn't add up warned me off buying.    

But for anyone interested in these types of fund - SDCL Energy efficiency income trust was one of the few not reliant on subsidies - of course this might have now changed, and this is of course is not investment advice. 

[headrow]

11 hours ago, Rave said:

More likely to be Ratcliffe or West Burton, it's not particularly helpful for grid balancing to have all the power being produced in one place and when Drax's Biomass units are at full pelt they pump out 2.6GW.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_coal-fired_power_stations_in_the_United_Kingdom

I live near Drax , was out this morning and had a view of it with the wind farms in front , they were stood still and Drax had all 12 cooling towers pumping a huge vertical stack of steam miles in the air. Beautiful.

[headrow]

Another advantage of living near Drax.

 

The pubs will be reopen in Selby soon as they fall into tier 2 North Yorkshire and places further north like Bradford and Leeds are stuck in tier 3.

 

 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

I've got to admit I wasn't expecting this kind of action in PMs at all. This sector takes balls of steel sometimes.

The DH effect

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

 I dont think its that. You have to appreciate PM s have had a good year, and now they are in the traditional shitty season which runs till about January apparently........(..Im  no expert, just regurgitating what I have gleaned. ) Support for gold is at 1810, if it goes through that then thats a bad omen, till then nothings happening worth getting too excited about. Silver could go as low as $18 dollars in the short term. Im in for the long term on metals and oil so I am not bovvered. None of this should be taken as trading advice for I am a muppet, though I am a muppet thats currently in profit due to silver having had a great year plus the oiles rebound.

[nirvana]

16 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Support for gold is at 1810

it's in the 17s now.......but finding some support.....

You guys should have shouted, OCD calm down and BTFD 

hold on finding the right pic......incoming.....

 

edit: Silver had a nice bounce, Nasdaq is off like a goodun again