Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Transistor Man]

9 hours ago, JMD said:

TransistorMan, do you have any insight/knowledge of the French satellite company Eutelsat? Telecoms is one of the big next cycle themes discussed here and i own many of them already. But satellite, although it being a specialist sector, seems something should also get exposure to. However, i don't know how they compare to competitor (better?) satellite co's operating in the same space (pun intended!)?

Eutelsat is currently cheap and paying 9% divi, but does have large debt (nb. covered by cash flow). So maybe a company for the watchlist. But is the sector in general, with IOT's, comms, survaillance/China threat, big assets/moat, a good exposure play to have? What do others think?   

Eutelsat appears well embedded in the global telecoms infrastructure and has many international contracts. Looking at the company blurb, apart from the obvious, they provide... backhaul and trunking solutions that enable remote communities to access the IP backbone or global voice traffic with a seamless interface. Communications connectivity for governments and NGOs, maritime, including commercial shipping, sea-based oil and gas operations, governmental ships and luxury vessels, as well as in-flight broadband services. In addition, it provides data to corporate and Internet networks, Internet of Things, and machine to machine applications.     

Hi @JMD unfortunately, I don’t have any particular insight into who will do well. My workplace has gone space crazy the last couple of years, for most of the reasons you list, especially, autonomous vehicles, and earth monitoring.

We have got another area of research getting a lot of attention at the moment: in collaboration with Siemens, the storage of renewable energy as “green” ammonia. 

[Thorn]

32 minutes ago, Loki said:

 

 

Watch for "liquidity in the pipes" or something similar. Then we've got the bastards. 

Yes. This.

 

AND  any form whatsoever of tips on how to improve your pizza base.

[Noallegiance]

21 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

make something ridiculous up

Fiat currency and ever-expanding debt?

Oh no wait that's been done...

[leonardratso]

maybe refer to some archaic book or paper that is never heard of or even exists. Make some shit up.

Daily mail does it every day, should be easy.

[Viceroy]

3 hours ago, No One said:

Can you explain more about it? I'm a bit of a n00b, and have only just begun setting up a SIPP and transferring my mini pots.

If you're not resident in the UK (like me) then you may have access to US domiciled etfs.  I guess you don't have access as you are setting up a SIPP and therefore based in the UK?

Back in the good old days residents of the UK were able to buy US domiciled ETFs from their broker.  ETFs often discussed here such as COPX, URA, SEA (now defunct), SOIL (also defunct) etc.. However, the EU put an end to that with their KIID requirements and lots of US ETF providers didn't/wouldn't supply the documents - hence UK/EU brokers were no longer able to list them. Alternative UK domiciled etfs were created to replace some of them.

https://www.justetf.com/uk/news/etf/us-domiciled-etfs.html

The general consensus on this thread is that etfs can have a place within a portfolio, but your general wealth accumulation in the upcoming cycle will be better made by directly holding the company stocks, collecting dividends and capital appreciation, rather than holding an index or basket.  

Sancho Panzas 'Coma scores' on certain etfs are helpful if you are looking to 'spray n pray' a selection of stocks because you can't get the actual etf. (Tip: use the search function to bring up past threads about this )

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Back in 1925 at the height of Sugar Beet Mania, Power Alcohol was the fuel of the future and would provide enough for 30-40% of all the countries present motor fuel requirements. I can see the attraction and beauty of hydrogen and producing it is easy enough but the costs of storage, transportation and use in cars is much more complex, expensive and problem fraught than simply burning it in non-mobile systems. Booze on the otherhand is much better but has the pesky addition of Carbon to deal with.

I can see hydrogen being blended with natural gas and just burned to generate power rather like a chemical battery, cars are a waste of time.

Chewing Grass that's very interesting. Do you think then that companies such as AFC who are developing hydrogen fuel cells for cars are not going to be the next 'big thing'? Not trying to oversimplify or trap you, but these type of stocks have recently shot up mostly I think because of their proprietary automobile fuel cell tech. I guess what I'm attempting to ask is - hydrogen may very well become am important fuel source in future, but AFC for example, might not be a good long term investment, instead will it be the Shell/Equinor type companies who'll be supplying industry and domestic heating, and that in turn will mostly provide/and mostly profit from the coming 'hydrogen enonomy'?

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Hi @JMD unfortunately, I don’t have any particular insight into who will do well. My workplace has gone space crazy the last couple of years, for most of the reasons you list, especially, autonomous vehicles, and earth monitoring.

We have got another area of research getting a lot of attention at the moment: in collaboration with Siemens, the storage of renewable energy as “green” ammonia. 

Thanks for your answer. I think It is a worthwhile/less risky strategy to simply get exposure to the infrastructure tech companies, instead of trying to select the winning innovative small hi-tech companies themselves. Anyway I think I will buy some Eutelsat and if it goes down in BK (the share price not their satellites!) I shall buy some more.

[JREWING]

On 25/11/2020 at 07:12, MrXxxx said:

Ah LSE, found it by accident about three months ago...glad I found this site first, as otherwise with all the good investment `advice` offered there I would be pennyless and living in a shed by now...like @panda is about to do when his plan backfires and his wife finds out he has spunked their life savings :-) :-) :-)

Aye. and Yawn....hehehe.

Peasant.

https://www.google.com/search?q=kistos+share+price&oq=kistos&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l2j69i60j69i61.3566j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

[JMD]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

make something ridiculous up, an oddball saying and see if that shows up somewhere.

Bit off topic... but that's a good idea, and It works - It's been done before - Google 'canine rape culture'!!! ...Ok it was a bit more elaborate, but some researchers thought they would show up how un-accedemic academia had become. They lifted quotes from all manner of unsavoury sources (mein kampf), but even so their paper was published, peer reviewed, and lauded by many departments worldwide. They came clean after being repeatedly asked to present in person their research to university audiences. Both hilarious and dispirating.

[JREWING]

On 24/11/2020 at 23:55, Cattle Prod said:

Beginning to think you're trolling...15k on a no name AIM oil stock? Nuts, being polite. And this is not a stock ramp type thread, I could have done that 50 times, LSE is the place for that. For me, this place is about the way, the philosophy, not the quick buck. Thats why I started contributing. Suggest you read from page 1 if you're serious.

https://www.google.com/search?q=kistos+share+price&oq=kistos&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l2j69i60j69i61.3566j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=if

Awful hey kid.

Me bad.  Big kisses.

Hehehe. Mwah!

[BurntBread]

On 28/11/2020 at 16:07, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been thinking a lot about the next/this next cycle end.This cycle is running for me now so I'm more interested in looking at the end of the roadmap now.

I have been and am very very scared of what the macro position will be.However smoke is clearing a bit and a roadmap out of systemic collapse. I think it will involve taxation, a basic income, and a lowering of working hours.

I think we might see 10 hours a week citizens income,and a reduction in hours worked in full time workers.

I'm going to be doing a lot more work on the end of the roadmap the next couple of years,but for now I don't want to go into it too much as it doesn't affect us yet, won't for several years and doesn't change the investment thesis at all for a long time.

Possibly relevant news item on R4 this morning: Unilever is trialling a 4 day week for its office workers in New Zealand, at the same pay. The trial will last one year, and if successful, will be rolled out to other countries.

I'm guessing that Unilever, being Dutch (well, Anglo-Dutch) has experience of the "polder-model" from the early 1980's. When faced with the possibility of rising unemployment during that recession, the Dutch government & unions introduced "ADV days", where everyone got 12 days extra holiday each year, at no reduction in pay.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

"The plumbing of the economy".

It is good stuff - no wonder they're nicking it.

"Economy gone down the toilet pan" more likely!

[arrow]

7 hours ago, Panda said:

https://www.google.com/search?q=kistos+share+price&oq=kistos&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l2j69i60j69i61.3566j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=if

Awful hey kid.

Me bad.  Big kisses.

Hehehe. Mwah!

Cattle Prod's posts are invaluable. They are informative and provide insight into the oil/gas industry.

This thread is valuable in that it is (mostly) the opposite of other share forums. On the whole, there aren't stock pumpers and share shorters trying to get scare people into selling or buying. I do admire traders, but posts saying they made x profit on such a share aren't that useful. Good for you that you made a profit, but I'd much rather read Cattle Prod's view of oil/gas reserves, depletion, supply problems, oil fields and companies.

As I've said, this thread is valuable in that it discusses macro trends and investments, there are other threads that were created to discuss trading, The fact that there are few posting, if any, in those threads shouls tell you something.

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, Loki said:

Watch for "liquidity in the pipes" or something similar. Then we've got the bastards. 

For final confimration it's got to be

"Is Centrica CNA the bargain buy of the year, to take advantage of rising gas prices?"

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

For final confimration it's got to be

"Is Centrica CNA the bargain buy of the year, to take advantage of rising gas prices?"

Yes, CNA price target 205p.

[AWW]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Bit off topic... but that's a good idea, and It works - It's been done before - Google 'canine rape culture'!!!

Completely off-topic, but thanks for the belly laugh at this: Wilson writes that 'dog parks are petri dishes for canine rape culture' noting that she witnessed a dog rape roughly every 60 minutes. To ensure that she accurately knew the genders of every dog, Wilson makes the outlandish claim that she "closely and respectfully examined the genitals of slightly fewer than ten thousand dogs."

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

For final confimration it's got to be

"Is Centrica CNA the bargain buy of the year, to take advantage of rising gas prices?"

I've already loaded up on CNA, you'd be a fool not to at these prices

I think most people on this thread would suddenly agree.

[AWW]

13 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Yes, CNA price target 205p.

Hmm, just slightly less than the total consideration when I binned off my 5,000 CNA shares. You live and learn.

[Loki]

AFC now beaten 5 year price

[JMD]

59 minutes ago, AWW said:

Completely off-topic, but thanks for the belly laugh at this: Wilson writes that 'dog parks are petri dishes for canine rape culture'. To ensure that she accurately knew the genders of every dog, Wilson makes the outlandish claim that she "closely and respectfully examined the genitals of slightly fewer than ten thousand dogs."

Do you think she was taking the 'KYC' methodology to its absolute limit?

To attempt to get back on topic - re. this year's self-inflicted Covid economic-control madness - and kinda also related to above(?) - with government minister for vaccines Nadhim Zahawi 'sniffing round'(!), it is only a matter of time before we all feel the constraint of the government leash (or will that be immunity passport lanyard; ...first they came for our Christmas!!).

Ok, i'll stop with the the silly metaphors. Link below.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjFjIq2xqztAhVRTxUIHaoTCPgQ0PADegQIDxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Fcovid-19-people-who-refuse-to-get-vaccine-could-be-denied-entry-to-venues-minister-suggests-12147306&usg=AOvVaw1kG_UdipkC8S2WOi_0DkjD

 

[geordie_lurch]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Do you think she was taking the 'KYC' methodology to its absolute limit?

To attempt to get back on topic - re. this year's self-inflicted Covid economic-control madness - and kinda also related to above(?) - with government minister for vaccines Nadhim Zahawi 'sniffing round'(!), it is only a matter of time before we all feel the constraint of the government leash (or will that be immunity passport lanyard; ...first they came for our Christmas!!).

Ok, i'll stop with the the silly metaphors. Link below.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjFjIq2xqztAhVRTxUIHaoTCPgQ0PADegQIDxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Fcovid-19-people-who-refuse-to-get-vaccine-could-be-denied-entry-to-venues-minister-suggests-12147306&usg=AOvVaw1kG_UdipkC8S2WOi_0DkjD

 

I'd say you are better off joining some of us in this other thread where I posted about that yesterday and Gove is apparently today trying back track from it. Btw I agree it seems to me that it's all related a la Great Reset, digital central bank currencies etc

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

For final confimration it's got to be

"Is Centrica CNA the bargain buy of the year, to take advantage of rising gas prices?"

Was it you Democorruptcy that wrote on here that you had bought more of the Big-C when it went lower last year? I am seriously underwater with them, but confess am not brave enough to buy more. However, if this thread's energy thesis is 100% on the button, and this is a '...bargain buy', i really-really probably should.

[Bricormortis]

Strong turn around in the metals happening. Platinum has been rising for a couple of weeks. Silver up over 5% this morning.

[geordie_lurch]

4 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Strong turn around in the metals happening. Platinum has been rising for a couple of weeks. Silver up over 5% this morning.

Not sure it's going to have any momentum to get back up towards £19.50 where it was less than 30 days ago - it's currently trying to get back over £17.50 never mind over £22 where it was back in August

[JMD]

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I'd say you are better off joining some of us in this other thread where I posted about that yesterday and Gove is apparently today trying back track from it. Btw I agree it seems to me that it's all related a la Great Reset, digital central bank currencies etc

 

Thanks Geordie_Lurch, i confess that i am sometimes guilty of going off-thread now and again, but i think my posts are sort-of tolerated/ignored(?)... and hope i don't do it too often? But in my defense, i do use the macro discussions from contributors on this thread to inform my investing strategy. For example, a big realisation  change for me this year came from all the 'covid control madness', it made me realise how easily people (not me of course!) are manipulated, and what may be ahead in terms of the 'great reset' you mention.

However, i'm not a conspiracy person, what i mean is i tend to lean more toward people like Neil Howe, who i think has a generational theory that offers hope, even though it will still involve a very bumpy path.    

The thing is, even the respected big-macro investment guys like Mike Green say (on the end game podcast) that for him the global incompetence of the world's government's - 'all making the same mistakes' - causes him to think there must be something laying hidden below what they are doing, he says he can't yet elaborate. DB says to ignore the political, i.e. the politics follows the economics. I agree. In the meantime i just amuse myself by attempting to join the dots.