Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

4 hours ago, Underwhelmed said:

New post by S Kaplan after months, still reading & digesting it

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2021/05/dont-panic-time-to-sell-is-before-crash.html

Could this not be as they've made an absolute killing in the last 12 months, and are merely profit taking.

Insiders of companies which would benefit from rising inflation, such as non-precious-metals commodity producers, industrials, and the shares of major global exporters, have experienced their highest insider selling in decades

So he is not expecting a BK, but am extended drop down.

The bottom line: increasing negative divergences are pointing the way lower for U.S. equity indices in both the intermediate (3 to 6 months) and longer term (2 to 3 years) with periodic sharp upward spikes that are typical in all severe bear markets.

[23rdian]

8 hours ago, Craig said:

Got my PAXG in a Nexo account, currently earning 8%.

Can you trust these type of things you think? I know nothing is perfect but how are they's able to make the return on it? Do they use what you deposit to trade?

 

[DurhamBorn]

Dollar index getting really close to breaking below 90 now hopefully it can get through soon and head to 87

[Craig]

56 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Can you trust these type of things you think? I know nothing is perfect but how are they's able to make the return on it? Do they use what you deposit to trade?

 

Nexo seem to have pretty decent protections in place, but absolutely can't see them offering these rates indefinitely. 

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, janch said:

Maybe he is betting on "the Covid" and the imminent crash putting many people in either  prison or giving them mental health problems (I suppose it's not funny really

Yep, the populus in the mental hospitals and the politicians (hopefully) in the prisons where they belong! :-)

[geordie_lurch]

Micheal 'the big short' Burry has taken a massive position against Tesla and more importantly for us is backing up his calls for massive inflation as Zerohedge says...

"But perhaps what is most remarkable, along with Burry's huge Tesla bearish bet, is his aggressive positioning for a surge in inflation (as a reminder, it was Burry back in February warned that Weimar hyperinflation is coming), which he is trading as follows:

• PUT on the TLT 20+ Year TSY bond ETF, equivalent to some 1.266MM shares or $171.5 million
• CALL on the TBT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 2.536MM shares or $55.1 million
• CALL on the TTT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 100K shares or $4.6 million
• CALL on the 3x levered TMV 20Y Treasury Bear ETF, equivalent to 38,400 shares or $3.1 million
• Outright long in the TBT 20Y Treasury Ultrashort ETF, amounting to 300,000 shares or $6.5 Million.

To summarize: Burry sees lots of downside in Tesla,  upside in Alphabet and Facebook, and is betting on a surge in Treasury yields."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-reveals-massive-tesla-short-huge-inflationary-bet

[planit]

I would love to know exactly his average buy-in and strike price to those TSLA puts. If he did them in the first qtr (I think that was the filing and they weren't there in the previous one) they are looking very shrewd at the moment.

 

Other comment is the 3x bear ETF is a widowmaker but his position looks more like "I need a bit of fun, I will do something a bit crazy as I'm bored". 'Only' $3.1m, TSLA position $530m!

 

He has some serious kahunas.

[MvR]

Just tried opening a new silver position in my IG spread betting account, and the market's closed.  Same for one of the physical ETFs you can trade via their spread betting platform, though SLV is still available.

Very odd..  Anyone else seeing this on their platform or other silver instruments?

[Loki]

Silver above $28

[Castlevania]

21 minutes ago, MvR said:

Just tried opening a new silver position in my IG spread betting account, and the market's closed.  Same for one of the physical ETFs you can trade via their spread betting platform, though SLV is still available.

Very odd..  Anyone else seeing this on their platform or other silver instruments?

Their silver contract operates off London hours

[MvR]

6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Their silver contract operates off London hours

It shouldn't do, and didn't last week ( or even last night ). It normally seems to follow the Comex futures in terms of price and trading hours, as their gold contract does.  I regularly trade it in the evenings.

It's not like the market's particularly volatile, and the margin requirement hasn't changed, so I'm wondering if it's just a technical issue, or they've messed up their own hedging and position, or maybe there's something stranger going on..

[Castlevania]

Harmony and the Argentine farming Ponzi scheme are both up over 10%!!!

[Noallegiance]

This is the biggest up day for GDX & J since I bought.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Micheal 'the big short' Burry has taken a massive position against Tesla and more importantly for us is backing up his calls for massive inflation as Zerohedge says...

"But perhaps what is most remarkable, along with Burry's huge Tesla bearish bet, is his aggressive positioning for a surge in inflation (as a reminder, it was Burry back in February warned that Weimar hyperinflation is coming), which he is trading as follows:

• PUT on the TLT 20+ Year TSY bond ETF, equivalent to some 1.266MM shares or $171.5 million
• CALL on the TBT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 2.536MM shares or $55.1 million
• CALL on the TTT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 100K shares or $4.6 million
• CALL on the 3x levered TMV 20Y Treasury Bear ETF, equivalent to 38,400 shares or $3.1 million
• Outright long in the TBT 20Y Treasury Ultrashort ETF, amounting to 300,000 shares or $6.5 Million.

To summarize: Burry sees lots of downside in Tesla,  upside in Alphabet and Facebook, and is betting on a surge in Treasury yields."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-reveals-massive-tesla-short-huge-inflationary-bet

The thing here as well is the affect on ordinary peoples pensions.They are mostly in those 60/40 type funds,or when in drawdown 40/60,they will see big falls as yields rise on treasuries.I really dont think people see the danger at all.4% drawdown,2% fees and 4% loss a year before inflation is a disaster.Pensions will empty over less than 10 years.

Those still paying in of course its not as bad,but 20% to 40% haircuts over the cycle from here would be really hard and especially for those around 10 years from retirement.

I think the biggest danger though is for those retiring from 3 years ago to 5 years ahead.People simply dont understand the risk when yields rise on treasuries when it takes around 15 years for positions to unwind.

[Boon]

Interesting as I was thinking of adding some of those ETFs that Burry was on about.

Is there a guide to an optimal amount, for instance if you wanted to hedge £100k of equities?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Have to love Lynn Aldens sense of humour. 😂

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, planit said:

Other comment is the 3x bear ETF is a widowmaker but his position looks more like "I need a bit of fun, I will do something a bit crazy as I'm bored". 'Only' $3.1m, TSLA position $530m!

 

He has some serious kahunas.

I had about 10k in a bear ETF for a good number of years; lost money on it but it was insurance - at that time 100% of my earnings came from clients and businesses which only spent in a bull market; a bear would have meant very quickly zero income for me for months and months.

Maybe he is looking at it the same way?  A hedge?

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

This is the biggest up day for GDX & J since I bought.

I've posted on here before that the range 50-60 is the one to watch for GDXJ.  Above 50 - interesting, shows fear.  Above 55 - mucho fear.  Above 60, that's only been touched once or twice before and shows something really interesting.

Of course, with fiat debasement those ranges will erode over time, but I still find it an easy 3 second lens.

[macca]

5 hours ago, MvR said:

It shouldn't do, and didn't last week ( or even last night ). It normally seems to follow the Comex futures in terms of price and trading hours, as their gold contract does.  I regularly trade it in the evenings.

It's not like the market's particularly volatile, and the margin requirement hasn't changed, so I'm wondering if it's just a technical issue, or they've messed up their own hedging and position, or maybe there's something stranger going on..

Basel 3 will end silver gold trading on the Comex.. That's what i read.. Then the fun begins.

[nirvana]

10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Their silver contract operates off London hours

IGs MT4 is always open for Silver n Gold during the week....

 

 

[Lightscribe]

10 hours ago, MvR said:

It shouldn't do, and didn't last week ( or even last night ). It normally seems to follow the Comex futures in terms of price and trading hours, as their gold contract does.  I regularly trade it in the evenings.

It's not like the market's particularly volatile, and the margin requirement hasn't changed, so I'm wondering if it's just a technical issue, or they've messed up their own hedging and position, or maybe there's something stranger going on..

It’s happening! Physical breaking from paper....(well maybe one day soon)

sorry couldn’t resist, I spend far to much time on the internet these days

[Loki]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dollar index getting really close to breaking below 90 now hopefully it can get through soon and head to 87

Looks like Durhamborn made a few calls and threatened to put some heads in pizza ovens

 

[Loki]

My SIPP punt into BTU has gone mental. My first double bagger i think

[planit]

Any VOD holders here got any comments, was a revenue decline expected and is this temporary?

I have been watching for a while and thought this might be a good entry point .

Dropped from 142 to 132.

 

[CVG]

I'm within 6.5% of my target (FTSE100=7700 or Portfolio=£X) prior to top-slicing ahead of the BK, so we can probably expect the BK in the next 5% increase.

Anyone else got a BK target?