Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

28 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

cant see much wrong with it, just a few bits of cosmetics. Ive driven worse and not bothered about it to be honest.

you just need to get your head under the front and rear and check the 'crash bars' are not badly done in.....even when they're bent you can pick em up on ebay for less than 100 squids

I bought one from copart that had not been written off (somehow escaped the system), tarted it up and quickly sold it to a dealer for a £2k profit.....I'm on their blacklist now though....anyway it was jump a temp thing when I was bored post divorce and I had to go and slum it in the north east for a while 

@Cosmic Apple yeah copart have totally started to take the piss, I can't even watch the auctions anymore when I'm bored cos membership has lapsed 

[Noallegiance]

[JMD]

21 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Small Hydrogen update. Baxi, Worcester are now running 100% Hydrogen boilers, fires and cookers in homes at Gateshead.

That's really interesting. But i remember someone here (might have been you Bob?) saying couldn't really do more than say a 20% hydrogen mix because of pipe embrittlement damage to supply pipes. Or have those Gateshead homes all got there own dedicated hydrogen gas cylinder in their gardens? 

[Bobthebuilder]

25 minutes ago, JMD said:

That's really interesting. But i remember someone here (might have been you Bob?) saying couldn't really do more than say a 20% hydrogen mix because of pipe embrittlement damage to supply pipes. Or have those Gateshead homes all got there own dedicated hydrogen gas cylinder in their gardens? 

A few months ago Gas Safe did an article on common questions about Hydrogen use in current pipework. They said H did not affect pipework or fittings and could be used in the current infrastructure. The guidelines do keep changing though so an ongoing thing at the moment, I will update when they say more.

I notice the woke enviromentalists are already starting on it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57103298

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

39 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

A few months ago Gas Safe did an article on common questions about Hydrogen use in current pipework. They said H did not affect pipework or fittings and could be used in the current infrastructure. The guidelines do keep changing though so an ongoing thing at the moment, I will update when they say more.

I notice the woke enviromentalists are already starting on it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57103298

 

I see Cadent mentioned in that article.  I assume from a quick check of their site and investing.com that this is another key infrastructure company that I am unable to invest in.  

They get 20% of everyone's gas bill, and have enough cash floating about to fund their own foundation.  Where do I sign up!?

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, nirvana said:

probs a bit rad for you and depends if you like to get your hands dirty but if you have a local copart near you I'd grab something like this https://www.copart.co.uk/lot/41775541/clean-title-2016-peugeot-308-active-westbury

that's a much better car than a Vitara, the 308 has a really big boot and they're good to drive, those jacked up things are for poofs and women  that 308 will probs sell for less than £2k....I know it's a bit fooked but that's throw away money for what it is really....

again it's actually really cheap to service and fix cars yourself if you 'have a go'.....I just replace some pads and front discs on a BM mini and it cost 55€ delivered including a half litre of brake fluid, which was nearly as expensive as one disc!

PS never ever ever take out a loan to buy a car, and dealers are rip off cunts, buy private with cash if you don't like the auction approach, there'll be plenty of supply with WFH and convid methinks

Iv always had diesel PUGs and always will,if Boris goes through with his EV crap il buy a 5 year old one then and keep until i peg it.I used to make diesel engines for a living and the PUG engine is pretty much bullet proof.The 2.0l is the best to go for really,but the 1.6 is find on the newer ones.I fine though its best to treat them every 6 months with some DAE fuel system treatment,cleans all the crap out.My 05 has hardly any smoke on fire up.The electrics are a bit naff,but the brakes and discs etc are all easy and cheap to replace.Just got my daughter in law a 207 allure,its 11 and i gave £2.5k for it,but really nice condition and il keep it on the road for her for £400 or less a year.Keep it 5 years i reckon £60 a month for her motoring if depreciated to zero by then.

[Ma2]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Can't find one for fridges. Yet.

Few good articles and graphs here -

 

https://www.livemint.com/Industry/V7wX0BAvKiko83S4atfV0I/ConsumerdurablesmarketgrowingrapidlyData.html

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/370660/refrigerator-market-size-india/

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/shipping-/-transport/indian-cold-chain-logistics-likely-to-grow-20-annually-by-2025-report/articleshow/82543106.cms

[DurhamBorn]

About a third of households in India have a fridge.There are just over a quarter of a billion households in India.3% growth in fridges a year is like the entire UK fridge estate x 3.5 in energy use.They use more in Indi of course due to climate.

Thats just fridges.Lots of other electrics being added still only 65% have a TV,never mind more than one etc.

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, Ma2 said:

 

See what I mean.  We're doomed!  These muppets would rather have the BBC pumping propaganda into their shack than have clean clothes and fresh food.

[stoobs]

UBI incoming

Quote

A pilot universal basic income (UBI) scheme is to be launched in Wales, the first minister, Mark Drakeford, has revealed.

The new minister for social justice, Jane Hutt, a close ally of Drakeford’s, will be asked to work on the pilot.

Can't see any figures in the article.

[AWW]

18 minutes ago, stoobs said:

UBI incoming

Can't see any figures in the article.

Can't see how Wales would afford it anything like a UBI.

I suppose the English would have to fund it.

[Lightscribe]

Okay another crypto update.

So as expected BTC levelled out at around $50k when the SP500 stopped selling off. 

At this point I was in GBP from selling LINK at $50 into BTC and then into GBP. I went back in on that second confirmation at $48k and waited it out to see if the stock markets had further to go. (Pic 1)

They didn’t so BTC begun to stabilise. Now usually confirmation like this would see it rebounding back up to the $55k region in heartbeat. Somethings different and I suspect it has to do with the below from Elon and energy use. We’re at a point now where I think the focus is shifting away from BTC and mining and onto the ETH. 

I then waited for LINK to confirm down to where it was bottoming in relation to BTC in GBP which turned out to be £28 in which it did a few times so I bought back in, gaining more each time in all the trades. (Pic 2)

Very interesting things are coming to ETH and ChainLink in regards to L1 and L2 solutions from offchain data and Arbitrum.

https://offchainlabs.com

https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/cryptocurrency-news/blockchain-technology/arbitrum-for-off-chain-scalability-solution/

ETH suffers from high gas fees in transactions and slippage (MEV)

https://www.coindesk.com/ethereum-mev-frontrunning-solutions

I expect both ETH (and UNI) and LINK to be very bullish from here, all dependent of course if we don’t get another downturn in the tech heavy stock markets.

[Bricormortis]

23 minutes ago, AWW said:

Can't see how Wales would afford it anything like a UBI.

I suppose the English would have to fund it.

Yes I cant imagine how it would work otherwise without means testing pension, they wont want to piss any voter group off ATPIT . Wales is rammed with pensioners. Now industry is in decline the economy to my mind is close to a third world economy, tourism 10 weeks a year, sheep farming and a couple of Uni's, some light industrial assembly work. BAE and steelworks in decline. 

What is it with this mania for equality ? we are not all equal, I'm not equal to Einstien or Usain Bolt, we dont all contribute equally, some people set their stall out early, make sure they leave school with no qualifications and llive off crime and bennies like mum and dad. But apparently we all have to be equal and be happy in the potato ration queue.

[Bricormortis]

25 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Okay another crypto update.

So as expected BTC levelled out at around $50k when the SP500 stopped selling off. 

At this point I was in GBP from selling LINK at $50 into BTC and then into GBP. I went back in on that second confirmation at $48k and waited it out to see if the stock markets had further to go. (Pic 1)

They didn’t so BTC begun to stabilise. Now usually confirmation like this would see it rebounding back up to the $55k region in heartbeat. Somethings different and I suspect it has to do with the below from Elon and energy use. We’re at a point now where I think the focus is shifting away from BTC and mining and onto the ETH. 

I then waited for LINK to confirm down to where it was bottoming in relation to BTC in GBP which turned out to be £28 in which it did a few times so I bought back in, gaining more each time in all the trades. (Pic 2)

Very interesting things are coming to ETH and ChainLink in regards to L1 and L2 solutions from offchain data and Arbitrum.

https://offchainlabs.com

https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/cryptocurrency-news/blockchain-technology/arbitrum-for-off-chain-scalability-solution/

ETH suffers from high gas fees in transactions and slippage (MEV)

https://www.coindesk.com/ethereum-mev-frontrunning-solutions

I expect both ETH (and UNI) and LINK to be very bullish from here, all dependent of course if we don’t get another downturn in the tech heavy stock markets.

Thanks for the info, maybe better on the crypto thread though.

[Boon]

30 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Yes I cant imagine how it would work otherwise without means testing pension, they wont want to piss any voter group off ATPIT . Wales is rammed with pensioners. Now industry is in decline the economy to my mind is close to a third world economy, tourism 10 weeks a year, sheep farming and a couple of Uni's, some light industrial assembly work. BAE and steelworks in decline. 

What is it with this mania for equality ? we are not all equal, I'm not equal to Einstien or Usain Bolt, we dont all contribute equally, some people set their stall out early, make sure they leave school with no qualifications and llive off crime and bennies like mum and dad. But apparently we all have to be equal and be happy in the potato ration queue.

Thought Wales was more dependent on the low-paid tourism jobs than other areas. So the UBI might be in order to stop those type of people moving away. 

To me equality is just a front, governments don't care about equality and in fact want don't mind more inequality as they are on the side that is getting richer.

What they do care about is being elected again and being embarrassed. Too many people with nothing to lose can be quite dangerous.

Wouldn't be surprised if some form of UBI comes here, although it'll be called something else, be digitial and also come with restrictions. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, stoobs said:

UBI incoming

Can't see any figures in the article.

A UBI is certain,its just when,and i fully support it if its set low enough and replaces all means tested benefits.The problem is for it to work almost all welfare claims now would have to lose out,because it would need to be set much lower than welfare.Id guess around £70 a week per adult,maybe £50 per child ,but with a two child cap.

The problem as ever is housing and how they manage that.Thats what stops one coming in,and how to deal with that is very complex.

Our welfare system is a disaster and will collapse government finances,something needs to be done.

[Lightscribe]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A UBI is certain,its just when,and i fully support it if its set low enough and replaces all means tested benefits.The problem is for it to work almost all welfare claims now would have to lose out,because it would need to be set much lower than welfare.Id guess around £70 a week per adult,maybe £50 per child ,but with a two child cap.

The problem as ever is housing and how they manage that.Thats what stops one coming in,and how to deal with that is very complex.

Our welfare system is a disaster and will collapse government finances,something needs to be done.

I know you don’t like to steer away into the noise DB, but I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this matter.

How do you see the government addressing the ‘housing’ elephant in the room when the current benefit system collapses and UBI replaces it (after all they’ll be tsunami of 50 year old women won’t be able to afford rent with kids out of tax credit age) 

Personally for me, I can’t see past the masses and BTL going bust (suddenly excess supply) on their mortgages unable to meet the repayments due to interest rates. Debt forgiveness in exchange for asset forfeiture then used for social housing as the government takes over most property, services and infrastructure. 

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I know you don’t like to steer away into the noise DB, but I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this matter.

How do you see the government addressing the ‘housing’ elephant in the room when the current benefit system collapses and UBI replaces it (after all they’ll be tsunami of 50 year old women won’t be able to afford rent with kids out of tax credit age) 

Personally for me, I can’t see past the masses and BTL going bust (suddenly excess supply) on their mortgages unable to meet the repayments due to interest rates. Debt forgiveness in exchange for asset forfeiture then used for social housing as the government takes over most property, services and infrastructure. 

Its  hugely difficult area to work out what they will do.I suspect the answer is to allow big insurance companies to build lots of blocks similar to student style places and government will rent them all direct.BTL will be destroyed i think,the leveraged that is.Of course,the other option is that rents collapse.Rents through BTL,but also Housing associations and ALMOs etc is out of control.

Welfare was a fantastic idea until they started adding on extra for more children,made up illness and rent.Working all week in a shit hole warehouse or factory with wanker bosses etc now pays less than not working with a kid.

My mate gets £2200 a month in welfare,mainly as his wife got their middle child down as ADHD and she also gets carers on top of all the tax credits and DLA/PIP.However hes 49,shes 40.With pension credit rules changed now at 67 all they will get is Universal Credit for a couple,not Pension credit,as its based on the youngest person now.They will drop to £700 a month,and from him being 57 they will lose all the child stuff.

In simple terms the government has given the person i sat next to at school £350k for free,for no reason than he cant be arsed.

[arrow]

More on K+S sdf. Don't know why it's dropping when nutrien and mosaic are rising. Could be some news to come or could be the analyst consensus of around 9.16 euros. Anyway, more on k+s google translated from german. Some interesting bits about the balance sheet/revenue write ups and write downs, farmers requiring more potash. Also the  increase in energy, transport costs and german green regulations.

 

 

The fertilizer and salt group K + S is looking to the future more positively thanks to a flourishing business with de-icing salt and the recovery of the global agricultural markets.

"We got off to a very good start in the current year. We are also optimistic for the rest of the year from today's perspective and are therefore increasing our forecast for the operating result," said company boss Burkhard Lohr, according to a statement on Tuesday. The shares are still coming under pressure in a very weak stock market environment and are currently falling by 3.81 percent to EUR 10.22 via XETRA. However, the day before the paper had risen to the highest level since early 2020.

Lohr now expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) to rise to EUR 500 to 600 million in 2021. The outlook also includes a one-off income of 200 million euros expected for the summer from the establishment of the Reks joint venture, in which the Kassel-based company bundles its waste disposal business with that of the Remondis subsidiary Remex. The EU antitrust watchdogs still have to approve the deal.

So far, the management had promised an operating result of EUR 440 to 540 million for the current year. Even without the Reks effect, K + S is confident that its operating profit will grow in 2021 after 267 million euros in the difficult pandemic year of 2020. The previous year's figure includes the contribution made by the American salt business that the group made to the industrial holding company Stone Canyon has sold.

Earnings growth will continue to be held back by increased freight and energy costs. And the costs in connection with environmental regulations in Germany remain high; the K + S management does not expect a decline until next year, as stated in a conference call with analysts.

In the course of 2022, K + S also wants to start discharging production waste water into the decommissioned Springen mine in Thuringia. The step will be necessary because from the coming year no more wastewater may be injected into the ground. The authorities have not yet approved the plans for jumping, but CEO Lohr is confident that the ongoing talks will end positively.

In the first quarter, thanks to the wintry weather and the recovery in agriculture, the North Hesse group achieved an increase in operating profit of more than a quarter to EUR 126 million, with sales growing by 13 percent year-on-year to EUR 733 million. Thus, the company exceeded the average estimates of analysts in terms of sales and profits. In the annual outlook, the upper end of the new range is above the average expectation of the experts.

K + S referred to an above-average good de-icing salt business that lasted until the Easter holidays - i.e. until the beginning of the second quarter. In its business with farmers, the group also sold just over two million tons of potash fertilizer, six percent more than a year ago. Many farmers have a significantly higher incentive this year to apply plenty of fertilizer for good harvests, as the prices for many crops have risen rapidly in recent months.

This is likely to continue to improve in the coming months, because due to the contractual structures, the higher prices for potash fertilizers should only really start to hit the books from the second quarter, as analyst Markus Mayer from Baader Bank recently said.

Because of the brighter prospects, K + S adjusted the valuation of plants in the balance sheet. According to the information, this results in an increase in value of 180 million euros in the first quarter, which is also reflected in the bottom line. A profit of 182.2 million euros was posted here in the first quarter of the year, after a small loss a year ago.

The fluctuations in value with write-ups or write-downs could also continue in the coming quarters. The business value has to be checked every quarter, which is why further volatility is possible here, the management explained. A prognosis for this cannot currently be given.

The current increase in value benefits the balance sheet of the group, which had written off almost 1.9 billion euros last year, also because of the rather difficult prospects for the agricultural markets at the time. Although this was less than initially announced, it had pushed equity down significantly when the debt was already high.

In the meantime, however, there was also plenty of money in the till. K + S completed the sale of the American salt business at the end of April. Taking into account debts and cash, the sales price was the equivalent of around 2.6 billion euros and thus slightly more than previously announced. All of the money should flow into the gradual reduction of the debt.

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats just fridges.Lots of other electrics being added still only 65% have a TV,never mind more than one etc.

Given the choice of watching the shit we have on UK TV or sitting there watching the fridge I think I would choose the latter!

[arrow]

I liked this reply from David Hunter. Made me laugh

 

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

A UBI is certain,its just when,and i fully support it if its set low enough and replaces all means tested benefits.The problem is for it to work almost all welfare claims now would have to lose out,because it would need to be set much lower than welfare.Id guess around £70 a week per adult,maybe £50 per child ,but with a two child cap.

The problem as ever is housing and how they manage that.Thats what stops one coming in,and how to deal with that is very complex.

Our welfare system is a disaster and will collapse government finances,something needs to be done.

If i got £120 for me and the little one that would cover food, water and fuel.

There would be no need to work, and i'm sure many would be the same ... so then not enough would be working to pay the £120.

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Thanks for the info, maybe better on the crypto thread though.

Ok noted, no more crypto discussion on this thread. My own opinion is that it is all an important part of the roadmap with the introduction of government crypto and blockchain (which is currently happening as we speak) and is very relevant to the roadmap for some on here that like to keep up to date. 

Theres far more to it than a tulip pyramid rug pull scheme and the media fanfare of energy use. The technology will change the world akin to like the internet did, and it will go through the evolutions as that did also. Then again I had these same discussions back then.

[Majorpain]

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-05-13/U-K-Royal-Mint-sees-540-increase-in-silver-bar-demand.html

Interesting info, although its not completely useful as we don't know how much silver the Royal mint got through in the first place.  The new Britannia is also quite stunning so I'm not surprised its selling well.

[Loki]

36 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Ok noted, no more crypto discussion on this thread. My own opinion is that it is all an important part of the roadmap with the introduction of government crypto and blockchain (which is currently happening as we speak) and is very relevant to the roadmap for some on here that like to keep up to date. 

Theres far more to it than a tulip pyramid rug pull scheme and the media fanfare of energy use. The technology will change the world akin to like the internet did, and it will go through the evolutions as that did also. Then again I had these same discussions back then.

FWIW I would read but not contribute to a 'macro-crypto' thread...I like the way this thread goes on the odd tangent but crypto is so huge it could take it over for pages