Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

DXY has gone under 90 at last and a struggle should now build.I still see 87 as likely.

it's tagging the Jan lows.....if they don't hold lorra lorra space below....

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, planit said:

What happens to price of Bitcoin if mining stops?

probs goes up 

You can trade Bitcoin futures now, the CME doesn't think it's going away 

[Loki]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Remember markets arent linear,day to day is noise.What matters is where things are going to in their own time.Im not a trader,my aim is to make 65% minimum over the cycle as thats how i see inflation.

DXY has gone under 90 at last and a struggle should now build.I still see 87 as likely.

What are the implications of your 87 compared to David Hunter's 82 - 85?  

A less severe bust, or shorter? Or less rotation? 

[nirvana]

18 minutes ago, Loki said:

David Hunter's 82 - 85?  

 

methinks the ECB won't let that happen, yuro exports will be annihilated...the krauts will be getting restless 

more meat on the bone...since the euro weekened significantly in 2014 EU exports to the US have gone from 266 to 352 billion yuro poo currency 

imports are at the same level as 2015...

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=USA-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics 

[planit]

28 minutes ago, nirvana said:

probs goes up 

You can trade Bitcoin futures now, the CME doesn't think it's going away 

No, I think mining is needed for the security and functioning of the network. If people weren't mining I assume there would need to be some kind of attrition of bitcoin to the people running the transactions (so it would be like the government inflating your money away LOL).

Therefore Bitcoin has a cost that someone has to pay. So the goldies can understand - Bitcoin would decompose if you didn't polish it every day 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, planit said:

Therefore Bitcoin has a cost that someone has to pay. So the goldies can understand - Bitcoin would decompose if you didn't polish it every day 

Spot on. If BTC was made under the intense pressure and heat of a dying sun using an unimaginable amount of nuclear fission energy, then I might be tempted to buy some.

[nirvana]

looks like Europe is moving to gas, Russian gas, how are the yankees gonna take it?

 

[nirvana]

24 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Spot on. If BTC was made under the intense pressure and heat of a dying sun using an unimaginable amount of nuclear fission energy, then I might be tempted to buy some.

supply is limited, it's inflation proof 

[nirvana]

48 minutes ago, planit said:

Therefore Bitcoin has a cost that someone has to pay. So the goldies can understand - Bitcoin would decompose if you didn't polish it every day 

In total there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoin’s scarcity is even greater than gold. Although gold is difficult to mine, there is a near “infinite” supply as new mines are always being prospected.

Although Bitcoin has a supply of 21 million, that doesn’t mean that all 21 million of those coins are available to purchase 

edit: i know you guys hate bitcoin so I won't comment anymore BUT

By Galaxy Digital's calculation, the annual electricity consumption of Bitcoin is estimated to be 113.89 TWh/yr. For some perspective, the energy consumption of always-on devices in the US is 1,375 TWh/yr — 12.1 times that of Bitcoin's consumption

 

the banking industry consumes 263.72 TWh per year

 

 

[Hardhat]

10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

It’s Tuesday. We all know what happens on a Tuesday.

 

They smacked it down but it's putting up a good fight...

[Green Devil]

18 minutes ago, nirvana said:

supply is limited, it's inflation proof 

Thats not actually strictly true... The current supply could be increased if the miners all vote on it(signal). One case where this is possible is when we get a a few halvenings on, the miners vote to increase the mining supply slightly to make it worthwhile to continue. If theres no btc being created every block, the only incentive to mine is fees. Monero has a similar emission schedule, with a tail when the coin is mature, to ensure there is a supply to keep the miniers mining. I think its quite likely that the miners could vote to increase the supply slightly in the future.

[nirvana]

15 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

They smacked it down but it's putting up a good fight...

they've taken everything down today, markets in danger of 'rolling over' again? 

[jamtomorrow]

40 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Thats not actually strictly true... The current supply could be increased if the miners all vote on it(signal). One case where this is possible is when we get a a few halvenings on, the miners vote to increase the mining supply slightly to make it worthwhile to continue. If theres no btc being created every block, the only incentive to mine is fees. Monero has a similar emission schedule, with a tail when the coin is mature, to ensure there is a supply to keep the miniers mining. I think its quite likely that the miners could vote to increase the supply slightly in the future.

Although in practice that would probably be sufficiently contentious to precipitate a fork, and then it's down to user behaviour to determine which fork flourishes from there.

[Clueless Imbecile]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

In total there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoin’s scarcity is even greater than gold. Although gold is difficult to mine, there is a near “infinite” supply as new mines are always being prospected.

Although Bitcoin has a supply of 21 million, that doesn’t mean that all 21 million of those coins are available to purchase 

They may not be able to create any more than 21 million but what is to stop them just dividing the existing units into smaller and smaller fractions. For example, 1 BTC becomes worth 1000 GBP so someone pays 0.001 BTC for a 1 GBP loaf of bread. Then 1 BTC becomes worth 10,000 BGP so someone pays 0.0001 BTC for a 1 GBP loaf of bread. maybe they could invent a new name (e.g. "Bitcent") and define that as 1/1,000,000 BTC. Then people start dealing in Bitcents until the value of that is inflated so high that they then divide that into smaller and smaller fractions until they invent another new name. And so on... and so on...

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

[planit]

Quote

Barclays has named BP its 'top pick' in the European integrated energy sector, arguing that the investment case for the oil major has been largely misunderstood.

The bank, which has an ‘overweight’ rating on the blue-chip and 475p price target, said BP was "the most misunderstood investment case of the large-cap oils".

"Our analysis shows the cashflow generation of the business as having the ability to support a 10% cash return to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks in a $60 per barrel environment - the highest in the sector," it said.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations-/broker-tips-vistry-bp--7936544.html

 

Spot on with what I was hoping for in a 10%+ return this year.

Barclays joins GS now with a target near 500p. This seems fair if you apply 2019 analysis. The markets are applying the new 2021 analysis where we don't need fossil fuels soon.

[BWW]

2 hours ago, nirvana said:

looks like Europe is moving to gas, Russian gas, how are the yankees gonna take it?

 

BBC radio news have been reporting all day that new gas boilers will be banned in '23.

On the PM program they had a bit more detail, it was some report/gov doc that accidentally had the snippet - for new houses only and from '25.

New houses will be getting even more shit then as they'll be freezing unless the leccy supply is good enough to run fan heaters. Wouldn't surprise me if they go for 12V only lights and appliances too. No washer drier .. off to the launderette. It's the future.

[sancho panza]

 

On 17/05/2021 at 17:56, DurhamBorn said:

Dollar index getting really close to breaking below 90 now hopefully it can get through soon and head to 87

I saw DXY sub 90 earlier and thought of your recent prediction(when it was going up past 92) that itwould go back down.
Fair play DB.Another great call and against the run of play as well.

 

On 17/05/2021 at 19:08, MvR said:

Just tried opening a new silver position in my IG spread betting account, and the market's closed.  Same for one of the physical ETFs you can trade via their spread betting platform, though SLV is still available.

Very odd..  Anyone else seeing this on their platform or other silver instruments?

Nice to see you back MvR,where you been for 200 sides?

 

13 hours ago, planit said:

Any VOD holders here got any comments, was a revenue decline expected and is this temporary?

I have been watching for a while and thought this might be a good entry point .

Dropped from 142 to 132.

 

WE're in it at 150,125,100.Our postion isn't big at the mo,as we're busy elesehere but post BK,It'll be bigger than it's current 1%.

Tbf They look very temtpting versus BT(both Vod and BT have a better equity /debt postiion than msot telecoms)

[Barnsey]

 

[wherebee]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Remember markets arent linear,day to day is noise.What matters is where things are going to in their own time.Im not a trader,my aim is to make 65% minimum over the cycle as thats how i see inflation.

DXY has gone under 90 at last and a struggle should now build.I still see 87 as likely.

DB - I'm up 51% since June 1st last year.  Somehow - mainly thanks to your thoughts and this thread.

Does that mean anything about 65% you would crystallise and withdraw from the table?

[MvR]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Nice to see you back MvR,where you been for 200 sides?

Thanks SP.. sorry, I have a habit of going AWOL occasionally as something grabs my attention for a few months or I just feel a burned out and need a break.  In this case a combination of moving back on the boat after wintering at WvRs, trying to get it fixed up to sell this year, trading, plus re-discovering music production after being asked to produce some 30th anniversary remixes of an old rave tune I made, pretty much overwhelmed my somewhat limited executive functioning skills. At that point, for some presumably Aspergers/ASD related reason, I can barely reply to text messages, let alone write anything meaningful, hence the apparent disappearance.. ( I've still be lurking though  )

[PatronizingGit]

Certain inflations are surely likely to be transitory. 

 

ie, there was a sudden deflation in fuel prices first half of last year, meaning double digit inflation this year. If things normalize, that should stabilize in time for next years figures.

[PatronizingGit]

3 hours ago, nirvana said:

looks like Europe is moving to gas, Russian gas, how are the yankees gonna take it?

 

Russia seems to, despite being corrupt, poorish, and crumbing, have steady heads when it comes to foreign policy.

 

US, otoh, has a bunch of criminally insane Israel firsters, defence industry fat cats & LGBT retards 

 

Doesnt matter I guess. US has money and tech, which, at the end of the day, is what counts. 

[PatronizingGit]

3 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

Certain inflations are surely likely to be transitory. 

 

ie, there was a sudden deflation in fuel prices first half of last year, meaning double digit inflation this year. If things normalize, that should stabilize in time for next years figures.

That being said, the helicopter money experiment will be hard to unwind. Apparently broad consensus that its now better to be on welfare for millions of americans than to work, so wages are having to skyrocket, which could entrench inflation. If they dont skyrocket, more welfare just means shortages?

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

The composition of that word tickles me daily.

Just caught something about this on Radio 2, bloke was saying that swapping domestic gas boilers for heat source pumps to hit their target would mean installing 1.7m pumps every year. Like that is going to happen. Blokey also reckoned that hydrogen was not the answer, as it could not be transported long distances - any knowledge on that?

Yes, I sometimes put in quotes the last 3 syllables, oh and Gretta has Asperger's, just saying.

[lid]

Mate's in the building game, says the price of chimneys is going through the roof