Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

We know you are a property owner now Barnsey but there's no need to get carried away.

Fair enough 

Ok, so the 400,000 British households that visit Florida every year might not be the same households every year, but holidays like that ain't cheap. 

[Barnsey]

6 hours ago, Nomad said:

Have households really saved that much money to make an impact on the decision to invest in a new/larger property? Personally I have saved commuting costs, about 4k, but no way would that constitute enough to change my property plans.

"Meanwhile the household savings ratio was 19.9%, its second highest level on record, the ONS said."

Sky News: GDP setback was worse than feared during latest lockdowns as savings surged.
https://news.sky.com/story/gdp-setback-was-worse-than-feared-during-latest-lockdowns-as-savings-surged-12345352

Household savings ratio in years leading up to GFC was around 7.5%.

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

"Meanwhile the household savings ratio was 19.9%, its second highest level on record, the ONS said."

Sky News: GDP setback was worse than feared during latest lockdowns as savings surged.
https://news.sky.com/story/gdp-setback-was-worse-than-feared-during-latest-lockdowns-as-savings-surged-12345352

Household savings ratio in years leading up to GFC was around 7.5%.

I am full on fucking the government by any financial means possible and folk have about 6 months to make the most of it tops before they start turning the screws again.

The bank is getting it as well as I double down of paying everything off as fast as poss whilst avoiding leaving 'savings' with them.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

65% of British households own outright or have a mortgage, with much more equity sloshing around now. Just think of the 400,000 British families who've missed out on 2 annual summer holidays to Disney World, £15k right there?

Iv got Premier Inn booked in Brid next May for £35 a night 

[Barnsey]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got Premier Inn booked in Brid next May for £35 a night 

Can't go wrong with them, wish they had a loyalty club! The day they start charging £40 we're all f***ed. Saying that, their £8.99 breakfast is definitely not as good as before.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

65% of British households own outright or have a mortgage, with much more equity sloshing around now. Just think of the 400,000 British families who've missed out on 2 annual summer holidays to Disney World, £15k right there?

How many mostly pay cash for these trips and how many mostly borrow?

[harp]

 

 

Javier Blas

 

@JavierBlas

 

GAS MARKET: European natural gas prices extend rally, reaching eyewatering levels. UK NBP one-month ahead prices are pretty close to breach above the 2008 peak, going to a 15-year high. ***The rise in utility bills (a political hot potato) is going to be pretty spectacular***

 

12:08 pm · 30 Jun 2021·Twitter Web App

 

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[ThoughtCriminal]

Anecdotal 

 

Took azzy roof off today for big roofing company and the owner was there. 

 

Said hes had to camcel loads of big jobs that were booked last year as his materials prices have gone up that much he'd lose money. 

 

Sheets he was paying 19 quid for last year are now 85. 

 

Im seeing it everywhere now. 

[leonardratso]

when the wheel barrow is worth more than the contents eh.

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got Premier Inn booked in Brid next May for £35 a night 

Brids like a freak show .... I take my kid there now and then to make fun of all the fat people, she tells me she is ashamed and embarrassed to be with me!

 

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

Brids like a freak show .... I take my kid there now and then to make fun of all the fat people, she tells me she is ashamed and embarrassed to be with me!

 

I like ordinary people ,my partners relatives live there and were scared to go in a couple of the pubs and told us not to.I thought they were quite posh compared to where i grew up  nothing wrong with them at all and £2.15 a pint.It hasnt been taken over by the BTL/holiday let brigade as well.Its a place that might boom going forward as well,there is a massive amount of gas sitting offshore.

 

[Chewing Grass]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like ordinary people ,my partners relatives live there and were scared to go in a couple of the pubs and told us not to.I thought they were quite posh compared to where i grew up  nothing wrong with them at all and £2.15 a pint.It hasnt been taken over by the BTL/holiday let brigade as well.Its a place that might boom going forward as well,there is a massive amount of gas sitting offshore.

 

Just street-viewed Brid, not been there since I was a kid in the 1970s, go 500 metres North or South from the harbour and it is very pleasant (even Sewerby), the South Side is like the Brighton/Bournemouth of the North with a better Beach and the North Side is like the best bits of Scarborough.

Something for everybody no less.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Sasquatch]

57% inflation in two days!

Was looking to buy 400m of timber for our house project. I researched prices from various suppliers on 29th June. Checked again this morning. Decided to buy from an alternative retailer!

 

[Barnsey]

On the stubborn savings front...

Negative rates coming? Or full lifting of restrictions, particularly travel, all that is needed?

[jamtomorrow]

Busiest 6 months ever for PE, and the implications for the 99% are just awful - automation means you can't access prosperity through work and wages, and PE means you won't access it through ownership either.

You'll own nothing, and you'll earn nothing.

 

[Bilbo]

Link didn't work 😔

[Nomad]

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

[AWW]

17 minutes ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

And that's on an official measure, which grossly understates the impact of inflation on most people.

[Chewing Grass]

20 minutes ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

Piss poor and most disingenuous reporting from the BBC.

Rates have been unchanged since March last year, when they were reduced to help contain the economic shock of Covid-19.

Interest rates haven't been realisticly changed since 2008 and have not been used to manage the economy as there is nothing left to manage.

and, yes I remember 17% as I had my first Mortgage at the time...

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

On the stubborn savings front...

Negative rates coming? Or full lifting of restrictions, particularly travel, all that is needed?

There is a distinct lack of anything but headline GDP data for 2020, it would be very interesting to see what effect furlough/lockdown/isolation/money printing has had on the structure of the economy.  70% service sector has probably taken a massive hammering.

There is also a barrage of negative things about, from new variants that are going to kill everyone, to little Jimmy/Jemima having to isolate (and keeping parents off work...) because someone in bubble got a cough through to people treating it like a zombie apocalypse and not leaving the house for anything.  Not exactly the sort of environment conducive to big spending on the credit card!

Then there is the other side of the coin, that with Holidays off the menu, Car manufacturing problems and 18 months of rules changing with no warning, IMO the only really big ticket item actually going these days is housing.  Hard to take on debt for things if there is little to actually buy.  That would be something i really want to see the data for, what are people actually spending money on at the minute?

[Nomad]

The only thing I am not spending money on that I was previously is petrol, year before covid I drove 23k miles a year, this year 3k.

Other than that all other spending as normal. Mind you I have never been a big spender anyway. Very few holidays or items bought as I don't need them

[planit]

Oil surged up today, highest since 2018

And this is before the figures later which will probably show a further large draw in stockpiles. We could be seeing a blow-off over the next couple of weeks, I have no knowledge or evidence but a move to $80 or higher and pullback seems right.

The projected OPEC increases are not enough to make up the existing shortage plus projected demand increases so I don't see the situation suddenly turning around now.

If OPEC feels the prices are too high (somewhere between $80 and $100?) they will come out with an announcement to drop the oil prices back down. 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

15 hours ago, leonardratso said:

when the wheel barrow is worth more than the contents eh.

De la rue shares would be the ultimate hedge against this if it wasn't for debit cards and CBDCs.

[Chewing Grass]

I saw a particularly good quote from the Biologist guy who does The Dark Horse Podcast because I thought it applied perfectly to our world. He was discussing Giants from the David & Goliath perspective and said giantism is a symptom of pituitary gland tumours not switching off growth.

'If you are accelerating growth past the normal point of cessation, you will be borrowing from the capacity for care and maintenance'.