Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Is that the new style JSA? Might do that myself, self-employment income has crashed for me since April for whatever reason.

NI contribution paid as well I see.

Yes,but you need employed stamp not self employed,you need £6200 from employed earnings per year for 2 years,self employed stamp doesnt count.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,but you need employed stamp not self employed,you need £6200 from employed earnings per year for 2 years,self employed stamp doesnt count.

Bugger.

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Durham looking ever more attractive. Even a Sammy Smiths pub wants twice that down here.

You find a lot up here have two prices,very cheap until 6pm then add 70p on after that.£2.15 is about the lowest now,then lots round £2.30/£2.50.Key is to get a Spoons close by that holds the prices down.Our workmans clubs are actually more expensive than pubs now because most owe money to breweries so cant shop around.One local one took all the loans and grants from covid and paid off the brewery so can now compete.We have "man in the van" as well.Thats a few guys who deliver barrels to pubs out of a transit van.Even the tied pubs run one in four of them through the pumps,no tax,no duty etc.

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Although if I understand him correctly, he does think total global oil demand has hit its peak and will now begin to fall. Hope others on here will listen and comment as energy sector is crucial to this thread I think.       

But what you have to remember is that due to reduced capex/discovery the supply will reduce as well, meaning increased demand for what is available=higher oil prices.

[leonardratso]

11 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

But what you have to remember is that due to reduced capex/discovery the supply will reduce as well, meaning increased demand for what is available=higher oil prices.

might be another whale oil/kerosene type thing

[Innkeeper]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You find a lot up here have two prices,very cheap until 6pm then add 70p on after that.£2.15 is about the lowest now,then lots round £2.30/£2.50.Key is to get a Spoons close by that holds the prices down.Our workmans clubs are actually more expensive than pubs now because most owe money to breweries so cant shop around.One local one took all the loans and grants from covid and paid off the brewery so can now compete.We have "man in the van" as well.Thats a few guys who deliver barrels to pubs out of a transit van.Even the tied pubs run one in four of them through the pumps,no tax,no duty etc.

The tied pubs will have to frig the flow meters to do that   Although they might bank on no brewery inspections cos Covid 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/19/us-raider-plots-55bn-bid-morrisons/

Now i own some Morrisons shares so likely a pay day for me monday on them.I bought them mainly because they are the UKs biggest food producer,a business not many know about.

However this is another example of what @Harley has been warning about over and over.Assets that should be owned by ordinary investors in their pensions etc are slowly being taken private so that all the free cash can go to their rich friends.I hope this deal falls through,or there is a counter offer from someone.

US entities are using the massive dollar liquidity to buy up real assets over and over and our useless government does nothing about it.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I agree that Singapore, Taiwan etc are MUCH better societies. I hate communism, especially Leninism, but they have made great leaps (pardon the pun)

Even back in the 1985, farming was 35% of Chinas economy and mostly for the internal market. Now its about 10% and a massive exporter.

There are people working in cutting edge AI or robotics in China just now whos parents were eating tree bark to survive. That is mind boggling progress.

Perhaps we are going a little off thread. But as I don't invest in China I thought I might elaborate a little more to explain why I don't do so.                                                                                                                                                                  Until a few years ago I thought many of the same things you say above about China. I even thought China and the EU would drift ever closer together, politically and economically, they seemed a tragically close match, until that is, around the time of the 2008 global crash. Even after then the MSM kept plugging on about China 'doing capitalism better than the West'! There were even stories of how retired judges, etc from the West were living and advising the Chinese authorities on how they might reform their legal system. These things increasingly didn't ring true to me. But the global crash, along with increasing internal divisions within China's borders crystallized things. These things panicked China and it set about rapidly turning itself into a security state.                                                                                                                                                        So I disagree that China's progress over the last 40 years has been 'mind boggling'. After all it has been accomplished with great help from the West. And moreover didn't the USSR transform itself over a similar period, without any such cooperation from other nations? In fact by the 60's there was full on East West cold war. All command economies tend to make fast progress but it's usually a mirage, rather like a political Ponzi scheme. I dislike all command economies btw, including the corporatist one we in the West appear to be embarking on.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But what you have to remember is that due to reduced capex/discovery the supply will reduce as well, meaning increased demand for what is available=higher oil prices.

Thanks MrXxxx, the reduced capex point makes sense.

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/19/us-raider-plots-55bn-bid-morrisons/

Now i own some Morrisons shares so likely a pay day for me monday on them.I bought them mainly because they are the UKs biggest food producer,a business not many know about.

However this is another example of what @Harley has been warning about over and over.Assets that should be owned by ordinary investors in their pensions etc are slowly being taken private so that all the free cash can go to their rich friends.I hope this deal falls through,or there is a counter offer from someone.

US entities are using the massive dollar liquidity to buy up real assets over and over and our useless government does nothing about it.

This theme of the rich taking assets private and leaving the rest of us with fewer ways to build wealth is infuriating. Without the option of buying stocks, it's what? Back to taking a massive leveraged bet on the housing market as the only way for the plebs to get ahead.

The trend is a consequence of central bank intervention, right? So much cheap money sloshing around. Do you think it will continue when interest rates start to rise? 

[Sugarlips]

Rick Rule says the silver squeeze is definitely working...

 

[Harley]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

However this is another example of what @Harley has been warning about over and over.

Whoops, sorry!

Morrisons loves the NHS but not me.

Sold, not sorry!

I also checked and they cost more.

PS:  Anyone looked at SUPR?

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Mapper said:

Back to taking a massive leveraged bet on the housing market as the only way for the plebs to get ahead.

But they don't unless they own more than one.  It's a distraction scam while the real assets are taken.  It's also probably a trap.  Like an ambush, funnel everyone there then bang bang.

[geordie_lurch]

16 hours ago, Loki said:

 

Ok that's the final piece in the puzzle of all this for me. China has just bought 10x more corn from the USA as the USA are supposedly about have a really bad yield at the same time as the West is injecting as many of its people with this dangerous 'vaccine'. They are getting ready to batten down the hatches and await the Wests self destruction

Given everything I've read and looked into these last few years and especially since Covid I think the next 12 months are going to be worse than World War 2 in terms of civilian human deaths and suffering (vaccine related) and I wish all on here the very best navigating it all.

 

[Harley]

22 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Macrovoices podcast on Oil, its future and energy as a whole [https://www.macrovoices.com/983-macrovoices-276-philip-verleger-energy-economics-and-inflation]

may be interesting for some?....especially a point made about current N American/European producers and their future given the whole WOKE situation.

I listened but was working st the time.  On gold, seemed a little concerned but never mentioned the Basel stuff?  Odd?

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, Mapper said:

This theme of the rich taking assets private and leaving the rest of us with fewer ways to build wealth is infuriating. Without the option of buying stocks, it's what? Back to taking a massive leveraged bet on the housing market as the only way for the plebs to get ahead.

The trend is a consequence of central bank intervention, right? So much cheap money sloshing around. Do you think it will continue when interest rates start to rise? 

Yes its down to endless liquidity.The Fed has printed so much US assets cant produce an income so entities are taking that liquidity now and buying up whatever they can elsewhere.Most countries have blocks,but the UK will flog off everything.Interest rate increases will change everything,but the question is how much damage is done before that happens.

Iv noticed since i was 21 and investing hard how much the UK has moved away from equity investing to houses.Lots of that is due to the cycle,dis-inflation etc,and houses couldnt of had a better macro backdrop.

I expect they would need to pay £2.60 minimum ,and could be a counter bid.I guess il just buy some more TEF Germany with the money.

[DurhamBorn]

50 minutes ago, Harley said:

But they don't unless they own more than one.  It's a distraction scam while the real assets are taken.  It's also probably a trap.  Like an ambush, funnel everyone there then bang bang.

Incredible scam isnt it,what use is one expensive house when you have 3 kids etc.Real producing assets being took.What will be left green bonds and levelling up?.

 

 

[BurntBread]

OK, we're all conspiracy theorists here, so I won't be too embarrassed about mentioning this.

Reading one of the other threads, there was a reference on another site to a chap talking about the climate change agenda (which we know on here has been partly responsible for bargain-basement O&G stocks), and the present COVID nonsense, which seems to have a hefty admixture of corruption (and therefore could perhaps have been investable if you'd been in on the conspiracy). So, at least a couple of examples of real things being blown out of all proportion by a political agenda, and driving market distortion. I think we (by which I mean DB, and I think before him, SP) were also quick to realise that agriculture (and specifically NPK) would be a weak link in the world economy. Being early to that realisation has been been good for many people here (so far).

The reason I mention it, is that the commenter then said "mark my words: the next thing we will be told to be convinced of, is water shortages". 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible scam isnt it,what use is one expensive house when you have 3 kids etc.Real producing assets being took.What will be left green bonds and levelling up?.

Scam?? Its pretty much the entire reason the western economy has imploded ... that and sending manufacturing base to Asia.

Almighty fuck up and national suicide is a better term! (its not that good a term) 

[Heart's Ease]

47 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

OK, we're all conspiracy theorists here, so I won't be too embarrassed about mentioning this.

Reading one of the other threads, there was a reference on another site to a chap talking about the climate change agenda (which we know on here has been partly responsible for bargain-basement O&G stocks), and the present COVID nonsense, which seems to have a hefty admixture of corruption (and therefore could perhaps have been investable if you'd been in on the conspiracy). So, at least a couple of examples of real things being blown out of all proportion by a political agenda, and driving market distortion. I think we (by which I mean DB, and I think before him, SP) were also quick to realise that agriculture (and specifically NPK) would be a weak link in the world economy. Being early to that realisation has been been good for many people here (so far).

The reason I mention it, is that the commenter then said "mark my words: the next thing we will be told to be convinced of, is water shortages". 

A good friend and her partner were well into peak oil/peak water in late 2000's (and I have much to thank them for for putting me on a different thought track).

They were looking to move to Asturias to secure their water supply as it's so wet there. The fact they lived about ten miles away from Lake Vyrnwy always made me smile.

[Errol]

Money supply US:

 

[Lightscribe]

https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/013120-2021?origin=SearchResults&p=1
 

Looks like they are preparing for the 3rd wave lasting a bit longer than anticipated or something else.

[reformed nice guy]

12 hours ago, JMD said:

Perhaps we are going a little off thread. But as I don't invest in China I thought I might elaborate a little more to explain why I don't do so.                                                                                                                                                                  Until a few years ago I thought many of the same things you say above about China. I even thought China and the EU would drift ever closer together, politically and economically, they seemed a tragically close match, until that is, around the time of the 2008 global crash. Even after then the MSM kept plugging on about China 'doing capitalism better than the West'! There were even stories of how retired judges, etc from the West were living and advising the Chinese authorities on how they might reform their legal system. These things increasingly didn't ring true to me. But the global crash, along with increasing internal divisions within China's borders crystallized things. These things panicked China and it set about rapidly turning itself into a security state.                                                                                                                                                        So I disagree that China's progress over the last 40 years has been 'mind boggling'. After all it has been accomplished with great help from the West. And moreover didn't the USSR transform itself over a similar period, without any such cooperation from other nations? In fact by the 60's there was full on East West cold war. All command economies tend to make fast progress but it's usually a mirage, rather like a political Ponzi scheme. I dislike all command economies btw, including the corporatist one we in the West appear to be embarking on.

I see where you are coming from but I disagree with the trend. The way I see it is that the Chinese people will still do well despite the shitty authoritarianism that they are subject to, similar to the Russians. Most of the Russians knew it was all a load of bollocks but a tiny clique of hardline believers enforced it (sound earily familiar to present times?) but despite that they launched satelites, made fancy missles etc. I have to point out that the Russians were not that isolated - they built pipelines during the cold war that went all the way to Germany and Italy for both gas and crude.

As a random example, here is a Chink student that made a self driving bike that self stabilises, collision avoidance and such. Similar to the Tesla car autopilot yet he made it entirely himself (OK, he got a friend to help weld when 3d printing wasnt working):

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1fV411x72a

Skip to about 8:30 to get to the interesting bit.

I am not saying that he is the best student in the whole world but that is usually the type of thing we see from MIT or other prestigious Western universities. The Chinese uni he is at was probably a rice plantation 20 years ago.

The Chongs are focussing on stability, education and growing wealth. The West is focussed on skin colour, genitals and where you want to stick your cock.

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

Money supply US:

 

The crypto global market cap is about $1.5 trillion. Imagine how much higher house + share prices would be if some of that new printy printy money hadnt went into crypto!

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

The crypto global market cap is about $1.5 trillion. Imagine how much higher house + share prices would be if some of that new printy printy money hadnt went into crypto!

Imagine how high reflation stocks will go once a few % comes out of bonds.Of course,thats exactly what the CBs want to happen and policy is aimed at.