Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[stockton]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've added Cineworld to my watchlist called 'Short'.

Ticket sales are back down to what they were in 1995. Box office has doubled like ticket prices.

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

This is what I love about this thread, I would never have found this but here it is.

All angles covered, all info in one place - choose your horse!

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

They might give it a crack - they were once going to excavate a canal with nuclear bombs, so not too concerned about the environment! They actually did ~600m with three bombs before they gave it up as a bad idea. Unafraid to experiment, our Russian friends...

CP, that experimentation is probably a good thing for the Russian economy, just wish they weren't so slap dash when it comes to maintenance. Then again the Chinese have the same problem. Attempting to run everything from the centre doesn't work.          

Actually some years ago I read that the Russians used atomic bombs for underground excavation, apparently it melts the rock and creates a sealed capsule, job done I guess! But I had thought it was all a conspiracy theory. Having said that, they do seem obsessed with nuclear... don't they even take their tea with plutonium (I know, bad joke!).

btw, I see what you did there - crack and arctic. 

[Democorruptcy]

52 minutes ago, stockton said:

This is what I love about this thread, I would never have found this but here it is.

All angles covered, all info in one place - choose your horse!

I was just looking at what was doing badly today and NMC Health are down 28%. 

Muddy Waters have put out a note questioning their debt position and Muddy Waters are short them. It must be lovely to be able to go short AND be able to move the market!

Muddy Water's note here: https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/nmc-health-plc-ord-gbp0.10/share-news

 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, feed said:

It’s really hard to comprehend the difference a few hundred miles make.  Here you have to budget a £5 a drink, £80 for a standard meal for 2, but people pay it, there is just so much money floating around.   One of the chain restaurants stopped taking discount vouchers, they are literally can’t handle the extra customers they bring in.  But that’s what being 45mins from Liverpool street gets you..  

We go to a Chinese buffet a lot in Durham its £7.99 a person,eat as much as you want and the views are over the Cathedral and Castle.You can still get really good pub meals up here for £9 to £14.To be honest iv never know a cheaper time to live.I just worry the Tories taking all the seats and likely to pump money in might bring more people here.Property is still quite cheap so its probably the reason it doesnt feed into goods and services.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

This is my experience too.  It coloured my comments that they could easily reduce their rates in a recession.
£3.50/pint in my local.  £7.00 fish & chips in chip shop.  (rural village, East Scotland, 50 miles from Edinburgh - filled with retirees from the cities).

I spent a fantastic week up there about 16 years ago,little village called Amercrombie,near Anstruther.Cracking looking nurse i met on a night out in Newcastle.She had a black cat and it was pitch black during the night ,no light at all,i was half cut and trying to find the bathroom,the cat must of been asleep on top of the bathroom door and it jumped on me claws out,natural reaction i smacked in on the floor then booted it,it flew about 20 foor along the hall smacking off the front door (it was a cottage).Next day it was sat on curtain poll making a growling sound at me.She said she was surprised as he was usually really friendly .I saw her a couple of times,but she invited me to her friends party in Newcastle and kept introducing me to everyone as her "fiance",thought i miss heard her first time .Her friend where we were staying had the most nerdy hubby id ever met,he had the whole house alarmed,lazers everywhere.He said hed left a route to the bathroom though.Anyway i decided to naff off during the night so only way out was out of the bathroom top window.I had to take my jeans off to get through and get them out on the end of a stick.She really wasnt happy next morning when she woke up and id gone.Looking back i think she was a bit crazy.Hopefully its not your sister/cousin etc 

[Bricks & Mortar]

I know that place.  Was surprised you called it a village as I didn't think it that big. 
Did a bit of google, to find it gets to call itself a village on account of a parish church, hidden in the woods a couple of fields over from the houses.  The church was abandoned in 1646 - but still stands, roofless.  I think it'll be a cheap day out for me, perhaps over the seasonal period.
No family in the medical profession though.  Wouldn't blame you for kicking the cat even if she was.
https://canmore.org.uk/site/34195/abercrombie-church-and-churchyard

[DurhamBorn]

46 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I know that place.  Was surprised you called it a village as I didn't think it that big. 
Did a bit of google, to find it gets to call itself a village on account of a parish church, hidden in the woods a couple of fields over from the houses.  The church was abandoned in 1646 - but still stands, roofless.  I think it'll be a cheap day out for me, perhaps over the seasonal period.
No family in the medical profession though.  Wouldn't blame you for kicking the cat even if she was.
https://canmore.org.uk/site/34195/abercrombie-church-and-churchyard

Just a few houses,i remember we walked down a lane for half a mile or so to a slightly bigger place with a small harbour and a pub and had a few in there.There was a guy in there who could guess where you were from with your accent,he got me within 12 miles.Interesting guy.

I had a bit of a deja vu as well driving there.I saw a tree with the nameplate Abercrombie on it pointing down and passed a couple who looked like they were dressed in 40s clothes so turned down the lane,but it was a dead end.Turned around,stopped at the tree,looked at sign,but no sign there.Very very spooky.Sounds crazy but it was like id be in some time warp.Tricks of the mind i suspect,but very strange.

Took a long time to drive there i know that.

[Lightscribe]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just a few houses,i remember we walked down a lane for half a mile or so to a slightly bigger place with a small harbour and a pub and had a few in there.There was a guy in there who could guess where you were from with your accent,he got me within 12 miles.Interesting guy.

I had a bit of a deja vu as well driving there.I saw a tree with the nameplate Abercrombie on it pointing down and passed a couple who looked like they were dressed in 40s clothes so turned down the lane,but it was a dead end.Turned around,stopped at the tree,looked at sign,but no sign there.Very very spooky.Sounds crazy but it was like id be in some time warp.Tricks of the mind i suspect,but very strange.

Took a long time to drive there i know that.

Sounds like a glitch in the matrix. 😉 I still can’t get over the Mandela effect of Dolly not having braces in Moonraker.

You make Durham sound more and more appealing DB with the prices of everything than down here in London. I may see if I can transfer through work and you may have some competition at 7pm in the Coop.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Sounds like a glitch in the matrix. 😉 I still can’t get over the Mandela effect of Dolly not having braces in Moonraker.

You make Durham sound more and more appealing DB with the prices of everything than down here in London. I may see if I can transfer through work and you may have some competition at 7pm in the Coop.

WTF? Dolly didnt have braces?,someone is messing with people,she defs had braces,i saw the movie at the cinema,its what they had in common,she saw him smile with those teeth,then she did the same,braces and cleavage.They must of removed them for digital versions or something.

Thing is as well Durham and Darlington have east coast mainline stations.From Darlo i can be in Kings Cross in 2hrs 10 mins. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

WTF? Dolly didnt have braces?,someone is messing with people,she defs had braces,i saw the movie at the cinema,its what they had in common,she saw him smile with those teeth,then she did the same,braces and cleavage.They must of removed them for digital versions or something.

Thing is as well Durham and Darlington have east coast mainline stations.From Darlo i can be in Kings Cross in 2hrs 10 mins. 

YEP...here they are!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCFLgDsqh6Q

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

YEP...here they are!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCFLgDsqh6Q

 

They were bigger than that im sure,whats going on here,i remember massive braces and cracking cleavage.?,thank god the cleavage is still there 

[Shamone]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I spent a fantastic week up there about 16 years ago,little village called Amercrombie,near Anstruther.Cracking looking nurse i met on a night out in Newcastle.She had a black cat and it was pitch black during the night ,no light at all,i was half cut and trying to find the bathroom,the cat must of been asleep on top of the bathroom door and it jumped on me claws out,natural reaction i smacked in on the floor then booted it,it flew about 20 foor along the hall smacking off the front door (it was a cottage).Next day it was sat on curtain poll making a growling sound at me.She said she was surprised as he was usually really friendly .I saw her a couple of times,but she invited me to her friends party in Newcastle and kept introducing me to everyone as her "fiance",thought i miss heard her first time .Her friend where we were staying had the most nerdy hubby id ever met,he had the whole house alarmed,lazers everywhere.He said hed left a route to the bathroom though.Anyway i decided to naff off during the night so only way out was out of the bathroom top window.I had to take my jeans off to get through and get them out on the end of a stick.She really wasnt happy next morning when she woke up and id gone.Looking back i think she was a bit crazy.Hopefully its not your sister/cousin etc 

I feel sorry for her pussy.

[sancho panza]

On 15/12/2019 at 00:26, Cattle Prod said:

Imagine buying at those prices? The buying opportunity of a lifetime is coming up, imho, and I am trying to build as much capital as I can now to deploy in the selloff. If I manage to deploy it, I will do nothing other than some rebalancing on my portfolio till 2027 or so.

The big problem with that is what I've bolded - the oilies have already had a bear market. I don't think I can go entirely to cash and risk getting left behind. It's torturing me! I too study the events of June 08, but it won't be exactly like that again. How much could the oilies sell off from here? Best scenario is that they run up from now till the big kahuna, then I'll be much more assured that they will sell off again. But who can time that? I'll probably go with what I did with Tullow. Buy in single digit P/E ratios. You could have got 3s and 4s in 2008, that is a company adding 25% of its valuation in cash every year. Doesn't take long t double your share price in that scenario once everyone has calmed down. One thing I know is that certain oil and gas companies will still be making money at $30 a barrel, never mind 40! SP has mentioned some of them above.

Macrovoices is very good, with some great guests. I listen most weeks. Erik has been too cautious on gold, but is a long term bull, and has been directionally wrong on the dollar. I too think it has turned, and I think the reason is the "not QE" fed repo stuff easing the dollar liquidity problem. Jeff Sneider is a genius in this regard, he has predicted all 4 of the last dollar crunches. He's hard to understand/follow, but if you have time go into some of his Eurodollar university stuff. They also have Charlie McElligott on regularly, who consistently predicts turns in the S&P 500, with nothing more than a glorified spreadsheet. Its a free way to access his institutional letters. They offer great subs deals too, the most recent one for Hedgeye, kicking myself I didn't take it. They are worth watching too: they have just gone long oil too.

Back in the late 90's my Grandad steered us into miners like Gencor,De Beers, Angl Am, BHP,BLT.Lot of yields circa 5%.Tech bubble was running hot,lot of old school blue chips on the floor,mining sector was deeply unloved.I was thinking the other day,that the oilies are beginning to resemble those trades.We sold up gradually over the run up.Wish I'd stayed in tbh

 

Agree we won't get a rerun of 08 but it's that old Mark Twain thing about history not repeating but sure does rhyme.Weak dollar phases generally occur before most US recessions particularly likely if Fed uses playbook of last 20 years(and I see no reason to think it won't)

As ever could go up/down/flat till big kahuna but my reasoning suggests weak dollar phase will lift commodities and then as recession looms dollar sterngthems commodities drop.

At these prices though,I'm thinking back and wondering if trying to trade the dollar here might mean missing out if we get it wrong.I think there's a string case here that I might sit us on the big oilies and trade the smaller XES/XOP/FCG/XLE shares we've bought.

Hence we're keeping up with the mechanical buying for now.Having said that,I think there's a chance of a decent dip in the market looming soon and there might be some real buying opportunities.Every day of decent weakness lately has been accompanied with sell offs across the oil ETF's-even from these low positions.

 

Thanks for the heads up on Sneider and McEligott.Very keen to get ahead of the dollar moves.

[sancho panza]

On 15/12/2019 at 00:55, Cattle Prod said:

So I sent her the following screenshot from our friend Art Berman, as I had been ranting about how China's CO2 emissions are as much as the OECD combined (or near enough) and yet the climate change people never mention them, and the only way to transition to a future renewable system is with a steady baseload, which will have to be natural gas (or nuclear):

 

I hamming it up a bit for her to get the point over, but the numbers are sound. So I think this is where the inflection point in gas will come from - demand (It's much easier to find and supply than oil). People will wake up and demand this change. Despite Trumps election promises, US coal is continuing to decline, because gas is simply cheaper. Coal states like Poland and Australia will become pariahs. China will try to shift to gas to keep its polluted populace quiet, and Russia will continue to stably supply it. Gazprom could become one of the most important companies in the world imho. I still don't own it, I'm not sure why. Been to distraced by the FTSE! Need to get on it

 

I'll stop spamming the board now folks, I'm away from home with a rare day off, so I'm just catching up on what I've been meaning to contribute. Hope it's useful.

CP

SOme interesting stats there CP.WOrth noting as well that coal is a huge chunk of Aussie exports.

[sancho panza]

On 15/12/2019 at 09:40, DurhamBorn said:

 

Oil is going to be the easiest way for the ordinary investor to protect themselves from the reflation affects.Its a classic contrarian play now.Everyone thinks it has no future,just at the time the price is falling due to the world economy slowing.The beauty is the sector will offer things for older investors like myself who arent chasing big wins now,im chasing inflation +1%+ and younger investors maybe hoping to increase their capital a lot in the more risky plays.Certain to be some 10x ones in the mix.A mix of maybe 5 of the big players plus a few of the smaller gas players could prove very nice.They should become free cash machine's.

 

 

Given there are yields then oil seems preferable to PMs,more reliable,more of a necessity,and certainly a blend as you suggest would make a lot of sense.

On 15/12/2019 at 12:54, Talking Monkey said:

Interesting thoughts there SP on oil running $100+ as the dollar weakens, could the economy handle such a price surely things would deteriorate very quickly as it got into the 80s and 90 dollar range

Correlation isn't causation but worth noting that oil peaked on the monthlies at $140 in June 08 after running up from $60 in 07..............as CP said exact repeat unlikely but stull,eerily familiar figures in soem respects.................whether high oil prices casued the recession is a moot point in a way but it wont haev helped.

On 15/12/2019 at 18:58, Cattle Prod said:

In terms of the companies making the shift - just follow the ones making cash. If they are making cash, they will diversify when it's profitable to do so. As I've said before, the big companies can afford to instantly take dominant positions in alternative energy whenever they want to. Equinor already has done so in wind. Shell looks to be repositioning and is gas heavy (the broadband I think is a hang over from the First Utility purchase, but I note they haven't divested it yet...). BP going toward gas, big internal changes in AI machine learning etc. Respsol taking responsibility for customers carbon emissions means they will soon make moves. ENI is apparently going into forestry in a big way (which I'm long on too). Exxon is pretty old school, they tend to sit back a while before moving. Total I think also has made carbon offset commitments. All these companies will have enotmous cash flow in the coming years and will buy what emerges.

Just follow the money 

Cracking advice.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

They were bigger than that im sure,whats going on here,i remember massive braces and cracking cleavage.?,thank god the cleavage is still there 

Yep everyone remembers them bigger and comically shining in the light to match Jaws. That video that YRS linked is apparently debunked here

http://www.debunkingmandelaeffects.com/dolly-has-braces/

What makes it more intriguing is that the actress apparently denied ever having them either. Great pair of knockers though.

[sancho panza]

 

On 16/12/2019 at 13:49, DurhamBorn said:

Iv spent my first full day unemployed doing some real work.

Iv done a complete dollar check using all my usual inputs.

The price the road map points to in the medium term from here is 89.3 on the dollar index.So its pointing to a fall of around 8%.Looking at the causes it seems like all the main currencies will be moving up against it,its not just based on the Yen or the Euro.Lets see.

Key question for me here is how does oil trade in that scenario.My oil road map is still showing $43 as a target based on GDP data cross market to each sized market.However thats very hard to tie in with a weak dollar so im sitting on my hands a bit.

I do think though its likely that UK cyclicals will keep running higher as sterling gains strength.Luckily we picked up on that move 6 months ago and so already have some big gains.Given 99% of the market got the call wrong on sterling,its likely they are very very underweight the UK cyclicals,and lots of shorts getting whacked should snap the rubber band back.

 

Glad to see that redundancy has had an upside DB.Without giving too much away and dyor natch,over what timeframe are you seeing 89.3.6-12 months?

going to be intriuging watching this unfold

On 16/12/2019 at 14:51, Noallegiance said:

I do 4 nights a week. The missus does 4 days. Three under 7s.

We have no debt costs. No childcare costs. No holidays aside from maybe one per year/18 months to a caravan park. 13 year old car. No 'benefits'. In SE. 

We couldn't be poorer unless we started using a visa for the weekly shop.

Living debt-free is getting harder when competing against debt users.

It's a tragedy what successive govts have done to working people in this country.Not least through their flagrant abuse of inflation calcs....death by a thosuand cuts....good luck.,

 

have you thought of moving north?

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

As an industry they have done a fantastic job.Getting the business model down to where its £5 a ticket in a new modern cinema,and £2.50 on a two for one app is incredible value really.They also have a lot of leverage with shopping centres etc as they drive footfall at quiet times.My son and his friends go regular with their girlfriends/boyfriends and tend to get a meal somewhere near.

The problem with Cineworld is the debt.When rates rise they will be very exposed.I guess the question is how fast they can de-leverage.I actually dont blame the management.They are probably doing the right thing in consolidating the industry as much as they can as that will drive their power with the film studios.There is also the risk people keep using the cinema,but in a downturn they might avoid buying as much expensive food/drinks etc.

https://www.cinemauk.org.uk/the-industry/facts-and-figures/uk-cinema-admissions-and-box-office/monthly-admissions/

UK cinema numbers possibly being held up by discounting.remember someone here saying that movie companies get the ticket money and cinemas the popcorn money

2 hours ago, Tdog said:

Doombrose from the DT who is a permanent bear, is bullish for 2020.

Not sure if this is good as like me he is constantly wrong in wishing the economy to crash.

................................

 

 

He's a worse market timer than me and that's saying soemthing

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Glad to see that redundancy has had an upside DB.Without giving too much away and dyor natch,over what timeframe are you seeing 89.3.6-12 months?

going to be intriuging watching this unfold

It's a tragedy what successive govts have done to working people in this country.Not least through their flagrant abuse of inflation calcs....death by a thosuand cuts....good luck.,

 

have you thought of moving north?

I didnt really do any timing on the dollar call as its a road map only,but the rough guess is 8 months or shorter looking at the currencies.Its pointing to most main currencies going up,so its pretty broad based.

I actually bought a load of BP yesterday.I had a lot of Stagecoach and i bought a big ladder at just over £1.20 so i sold them (still kept 60%) when they went over £1.64 and bought BP.

Im really torn on timing these oilies though.My dollar work would say oil should run up,but other liquidity work on lags is showing a lurch down in oil.However i have decided to split the difference and pick up some now where iv sold some bottom ladders (i sold some RM as well that were up 30%+) and hold back a lot of capital if there are falls.I dont want to enter the next cycle low under exposed on the sector,but im not 100% sold the bottom is in and keep seeing oil at $43 on my numbers.

Redundancy 100% upside SP.I was actually getting worried it might get pushed back a bit more and i really wanted out,but didnt want to leave as i didnt want to burn any bridges.Iv had a few job offers already,but turned them all down.I felt for the other lads,most/all really upset and worried of course.Lots worse to come there if my road map is right,but the recovery cycle will really favour them.

[sancho panza]

going to be watching this tmrw.Hour long interview with Jim Chanos

@Cattle Prod

 

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/fascinating-conversation-with-renowned-short-seller-jim-chanos-ISo0eNv-Xk-a9TGCEU6Nkg/

Please consider a Conversation With Renowned Short Seller Jim Chanos on Hedgeye TV.

The videocast is a bit over an hour long, but well well worth the time.

Topics

• An Explanation of His Investing Process
• China: Cyclical Recovery Pending or Secular Slowing?
• Chanos' Top Short Ideas Right Now
• Tesla and Netflix

My Notes

1. Chanos most often focuses on serious fundamental business model flaws. True fraud is rare.
2. Lots of things fail for reasons that should be obvious, but somehow aren’t.
3. Wall street has a long history of believing 2+2=5.
4. China is still the biggest real estate bubble in history.
5. No bubble or fraud is the same, but the fundamentals and parallels repeat.
6. Similarities between Japan in 1980's and China Today.
7. At the 32 minute mark, Chanos discusses Tesla.
8. Tesla remains one of Chanos' biggest short positions
9. Run the numbers on Tesla you get a stock market value of zero.
10. The rest of the car industry, notably Porsche, is catching up on technology
11. Tesla Model 3 demand Is plateauing
12. Tesla gross margins not improving.
13. Solar panel assets are really liabilities.
14. Pro-forma accounting share-based comp hiding in plain sight - In general, not just Tesla
15. Netflix has become what it once disrupted. It is now creating shows and that changes its business model dramatically. Netflix is a fraction of the digital disruption it once was.

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider Mish in the Arena with Hedgeye: Hiding Out in Gold and Treasuries

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

What's that, a 10 bag in blue chip divi payers?! Imagine deploying capital at the bottom of that, you'd probably be getting over a 50% return annually toward the end!

Where did you manage to purchase those ETFs, if you don't mind my asking?

The bargains then were amazing.I bought Whitbread about £4,Bat £5,Imperial £4,lots that got taken over as well like Arriva,Yorkshire Water,Northumbrian Water ,British airports Authority,Thames Water,they were giving stuff away at insane prices.I have a feeling we are in similar territory now with bonds and houses being overvalued and energy etc about to be hugely undervalued.

[sancho panza]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

What's that, a 10 bag in blue chip divi payers?! Imagine deploying capital at the bottom of that, you'd probably be getting over a 50% return annually toward the end!

Where did you manage to purchase those ETFs, if you don't mind my asking?

I've said before that I pick through the ETFs m and coma scale the better ones,then buy.

I'm intending to pick up some REMX ETF as the ETF.Currently using saxobank,intereactive investors,HL and my local guys.I'll have a cheack with the local guys this week but I'm pretty sure they can buy anythign but it'll have to be in $.Had a look at REMX on Saxo and they didn't say you couldn't buy it.I'll get back to you on that CP

Those late 90's trades were incredible.I sold them through the bull but the bulk went around 2011 iirc.My grandad passed away 2005 .He did his best for his kids.Lived a humble life.Miss him a lot.He was a contrarian to the core in more than jsut stock market dealings.

[sancho panza]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The bargains then were amazing.I bought Whitbread about £4,Bat £5,Imperial £4,lots that got taken over as well like Arriva,Yorkshire Water,Northumbrian Water ,British airports Authority,Thames Water,they were giving stuff away at insane prices.I have a feeling we are in similar territory now with bonds and houses being overvalued and energy etc about to be hugely undervalued.

There was a lot going cheap when boo.com was worth as much as M&S or whatever....

It was an incredible time,the paralysis of analysis during the tech bubble had to be seen to be believed.I look at current faith in Apple/Google/FB etc and see the same.

Hence my buying decent oilies positions now.

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I didnt really do any timing on the dollar call as its a road map only,but the rough guess is 8 months or shorter looking at the currencies.Its pointing to most main currencies going up,so its pretty broad based.

I actually bought a load of BP yesterday.I had a lot of Stagecoach and i bought a big ladder at just over £1.20 so i sold them (still kept 60%) when they went over £1.64 and bought BP.

Im really torn on timing these oilies though.My dollar work would say oil should run up,but other liquidity work on lags is showing a lurch down in oil.However i have decided to split the difference and pick up some now where iv sold some bottom ladders (i sold some RM as well that were up 30%+) and hold back a lot of capital if there are falls.I dont want to enter the next cycle low under exposed on the sector,but im not 100% sold the bottom is in and keep seeing oil at $43 on my numbers.

Redundancy 100% upside SP.I was actually getting worried it might get pushed back a bit more and i really wanted out,but didnt want to leave as i didnt want to burn any bridges.Iv had a few job offers already,but turned them all down.I felt for the other lads,most/all really upset and worried of course.Lots worse to come there if my road map is right,but the recovery cycle will really favour them.

sensible policy.

Glad the redundacny went well.It's crap for people,i remember temping/doing crap jobs in the 90's and the instability it bought.never forget it.

I was lucky Ihad a family that were hapy and able to help me along a bit.

Never forget seeing the people I worked with scratching by on bugger all and dreading the car breaking down etc.No debt either in those days so much.Dread to think of how some people are exposed.

[DurhamBorn]

 

14 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Last time Brent was $43 in August 2016, which is 34% lower than today, Shell (BP price history is distorted by Macondo payments) was 15% lower than today, not adjusting for dividends. OIH was 102% higher (I don't know if the composition changed much)!!

The oilies are already discounted, and I'm not worried about $43 a barrel. 

I would be a little squeaky bum about sub-$20, is $43 what you see possibly now, and the sub $20 in the deflationary bust?

Yes,$43 is possible given the slowdown im seeing in the lead industrial sectors,but the dollar call would say that wont happen.It might be a case of what happens first.If dollar starts to fall oil runs anyway.If not it falls away until the dollar does turn,things seem close.Sub $20 would simply be a paper market spike that might only last a few days and im ignoring now for positioning.Iv already opened positions in several big oilies now and a few very risky gas players.I have a lot of capital for the sector and i think its vital to hold with what i see ahead.I still think silver will hugely outperform oil,but iv only got 1/4 the capital set aside for the PM sector as i have energy.

I think BP is trading on a PE of 3.5 on what it will be making in 2028 in free cash at a minimum,so the road map is clear.I think £20+ is very likely then so i guess 40p difference now doesnt amount to much.I should add i expect some big share buy backs along the way as well,so the market cap might only go up 180%,not 300%.