Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Mistakes I've made over the last few weeks:

1) Selling out of Easyjet too soon

2) Selling some check Shell shares to cut my losses

3) Accidentally buying shares from the wrong country

4) Not buying enough

5) should have sold everything as soon as it became clear things were going into lockdown.

6) Never buy the nameless ahre

7) Never buy bank shares

The only question is...will the virus come back with a bang.  We should be watching.

[janch]

5 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Aussie Government grant aid for house building and renovations. 
Pretty much my wildest dream come true, if not actually in my own country yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/04/who-is-eligible-for-homebuilder-grants-and-how-much-will-they-have-to-spend

There used to be similar schemes here.  I can remember getting a local authority grant for a new roof in 1980s.  The schemes covered damp proofing/double glazing/roofs etc and were a good way of upgrading all those Victorian houses plus small builders always had a lot of work.

There could well be similar schemes to come here.  A lot of the Victorian housing could do with further work by now........

[leonardratso]

a lot of newbuilds probably need a rebuild by now. same quality, just newer than new.

[Bricks & Mortar]

6 minutes ago, janch said:

There used to be similar schemes here.  I can remember getting a local authority grant for a new roof in 1980s.  The schemes covered damp proofing/double glazing/roofs etc and were a good way of upgrading all those Victorian houses plus small builders always had a lot of work.

There could well be similar schemes to come here.  A lot of the Victorian housing could do with further work by now........

I know.  My old man did loads of grant-aided work.  In the 70's, the government would pay 75% of a re-roofing or damp-proofing job if your house qualified as 'sub-standard'.  (They probably did do double-glazing as well, but round here, the houses are all conservation area, so not allowed).  The % went down in the 80's, first to 50, then 25%, and they disappeared by the 90's.

I'm thinking energy efficiency work.  Insulation, triple glazing, solar panels, heat pumps.   None of which is really up my street though.  I guess we could get into external wall insulation, or roof insulation, if it looked lucrative.
But, maybe just having half my competitors go chase the grants instead of competing with me would do just as nicely.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

I am so curious what the end of the year will bring.  General consensus seems to be a good summer. 

Seems to me that there's been a bit of a spike

 

I'm fully prepared to sell everything at wait till next year if/when this takes off again.

I'm still too minds as to whether this who thing is just a charade for the banker OWG to push it's agenda to a conclusion, $10 trillion says it is

 

 

[Craig]

Woo hoo!

Too far?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, Craig said:

Woo hoo!

Too far?

#PMSL.

 

[Bricormortis]

8 minutes ago, Craig said:

Woo hoo!

Too far?

I remember watching it fall and fall and then buying at 0.60 p and thinking I had played a blinder. 

[Chewing Grass]

Bank has turned the level of patronising irritation to the stratosphere today with extra 2 clicks over and above the previous extra clicks to make payments.

Makes no difference if you have been making the same payments for years as there is no intelligence behind it and they assume every account holder has the IQ of a Somalian Donkey.

The level banking paranoia has gone up a peg, I wonder why...

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I think they've taken out the ground floor and have the upper floor supported on a steel frame.  Expect it'll be glass on 3 sides when its done.

EDIT - This post suggests they've reclaimed the house from elsewhere, transported it to site, and lifted it onto the frame.    Apparently, it's a 'Queenslander' - a traditional style of house in the area.  They were usually built on stilts to allow airflow under the house, as a means of cooling.  In that case, I guess the area underneath might not be glazed in the end.  Maybe a shady place to sit or park the cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queenslander_(architecture)

Thanks for the info. BM. But wow! that's what I call 'extreme recycling'.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Seriously? That's just noise, like all the other noise you run your red line through. It may flatten and uptick, but you can't tell yet. As you said, the time to buy was 8 weeks ago, and I put up fag packet version of that for the forums benefit around then, with projections, which I'd made my buying decsions on. It wasn't perfect, it turned out more lognormal than normal, but near enough. The virus may well come back, but friendly advice is to try and get ahead of the curve, not the tail end!

Today is fun, I've topsliced SLB XOM and a few others, and bought Barrick, GDXJ, SSLV and a few others. Dyodd, enjoy!

I expect you are right...just keep an eye on it.

Maybe some people can comment this thought, at some point the bad news numbers are going to roll in, are these priced in or will we see falls again then ?

[JMD]

1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

Warren Buffett must be going mad,  nobody needs his pile of cash these days.

Is there a 'Buffet Cash-Pile Index'?

Would be nice to monitor how/if/when Buffet starts spending. Has some internet geek (no offence) created one I wonder.

[JMD]

48 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Mistakes I've made over the last few weeks:

1) Selling out of Easyjet too soon

2) Selling some check Shell shares to cut my losses

3) Accidentally buying shares from the wrong country

4) Not buying enough

5) should have sold everything as soon as it became clear things were going into lockdown.

6) Never buy the nameless ahre

7) Never buy bank shares

The only question is...will the virus come back with a bang.  We should be watching.

Count, just being nosy because I am always weary of doing same, but which share/exchange was that?

[JMD]

50 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

a lot of newbuilds probably need a rebuild by now. same quality, just newer than new.

They say everything come back into fashion eventually, so 'make do and mend' returns - only this time its on steroids!!

[JMD]

Made by Trump's economic advisor back in 2016. Its content is standard stuff - well it is now - but no wonder American voters got angry with the 'system' and voted for Trump the 'disruptor' (well kind of).

But video does get pretty ghoulish (organ harvesting) approx. 32:15 - how true are those stories, dose anyone know here?

 

[BearyBear]

27 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is there a 'Buffet Cash-Pile Index'?

Would be nice to monitor how/if/when Buffet starts spending. Has some internet geek (no offence) created one I wonder.

I've read a lot about investing and I am not aware of that index

[TheCountOfNowhere]

26 minutes ago, JMD said:

Count, just being nosy because I am always weary of doing same, but which share/exchange was that?

I meant to buy MOS NYSE but but MOS LSE accidentally.  I then had a read at what I had bought and there was a lot of noise about some announcement so I held on to them for a few days.....I sold out for my initial investment sum when they were up 40% up !!! I ended up with about 40,000 free shares, they were at 70% up at one point.  They're back down now to around what I paid but it's still 40,000 free shares to have a punt with.

[Loki]

Market at fever pitch as we go into the close...RRE, RDSB, BP, DRX, AAL and SDF all benefiting from the money hose

[Majorpain]

Quote

The Finns are revolting.  They are good Europeans, but the Frugal Four just became Five.  Their parliament has apparently rejected the EU’s 750 bln Coronavirus Next Generation Recovery Fund proposals – in its current form.  The Finns say they are willing to talk, but want something that is largely loans, much shorter in duration, and much much smaller. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/finns-are-revolting-ecb-suffers-another-einstein-moment

My enthusiasm for the Euro project doing the right thing lasted one whole day, and now its back to reality that it is dooooooomed.  The North will just not bail out the South.

[JMD]

Book review time...!!

'You Always Hurt the One you Love' - book out soon, though i'll probably wait for paperback edition. Its Author, Bernard Connolly (btw, does anyone know more about him?) was the EU commission economics director, until he was fired in the 1990's for speaking out against the introduction of the Euro.

I think it chimes with this thread (as expounded repeatedly by DurhamBorn) - that 'individuals' are not the culprits - whether these be politicians or central-bankers - instead it is the social/economic system that requires overhaul. I believe the author offers up solutions, so might be interesting.   

 

Anyway, splurge says... "Bestselling author of The Rotten Heart of Europe argues that both capitalisms defenders and its detractors are wrong. The principal culprit is not the moral failure of individuals. Instead, there has been a catastrophic intellectual failure. The academic macroeconomics industry and the central banks who are both patron and client of that industry are themselves in the process of destroying capitalism.

In this epoch-defining book, internationally acclaimed economist Bernard Connolly argues that getting off the conveyor belt to destruction is possible, but it will require a profound reorientation of social structures and a whole new understanding of economics."

https://www.amazon.co.uk/You-Always-Hurt-One-Love/dp/1785905961/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=bernard+connolly&qid=1591268937&s=books&sr=1-1

 

...btw, this IS a recommendation, but feel free to dyor if you wish!

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/finns-are-revolting-ecb-suffers-another-einstein-moment

My enthusiasm for the Euro project doing the right thing lasted one whole day, and now its back to reality that it is dooooooomed.  The North will just not bail out the South.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-finland-politics-kulmuni/finlands-finance-minister-steps-down-over-training-scandal-idUSKBN23C1PS

Finland's finance minister steps down over training payments

Nothing to see here, all a coincidence 

Edit: End of the article turned my stomach.  Bill Blain is on my mental ignore list. 

[Green Devil]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Market at fever pitch as we go into the close...RRE, RDSB, BP, DRX, AAL and SDF all benefiting from the money hose

Crazy. Nasdaq is at all time highs. 🤣🤣

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Crazy. Nasdaq is at all time highs. 🤣🤣

I only have a small portfolio compared to most of you lot, but I just sat there and watched amazed as the daily gain went from 100...200...300...350.

Edit: HOC was a poorly timed buy for me.  

[JMD]

25 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

I've read a lot about investing and I am not aware of that index

In that case, perhaps we could request a web-cam in Buffett's office (shots of his vdu would suffice), I believe he is a shy individual so might not agree to a live-feed.

[Green Devil]

58 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is there a 'Buffet Cash-Pile Index'?

Would be nice to monitor how/if/when Buffet starts spending. Has some internet geek (no offence) created one I wonder.

If there is you want to fade him. He sold all his airline stocks at the lows. What a clown.