Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Look at the comments...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-8389267/Bank-Englands-money-printing-set-hit-1trillion.html

they're fooling no one this time.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

B&M, great example I agree of what's coming here soon. Btw, the picture caption says the house is undergoing renovation, but how come its up on stilts?

I've always thought the housing sector would be protected. DurhamBorn says governments biggest fear - when it comes to the electorate - is mass unemployment, but surely there are other things that make people very restless/skittish. For example, Gordon Brown could raid the pensions, and almost everyone cheered, and I expect that type of policy to happen again. But people's 'biggest asset', their 'pride and joy', their 'castle', must be protected at all costs it seems to me, with many newspapers repeatedly plastering (rendering?!) house price (scare) stories across their front pages.

I think they've taken out the ground floor and have the upper floor supported on a steel frame.  Expect it'll be glass on 3 sides when its done.

EDIT - This post suggests they've reclaimed the house from elsewhere, transported it to site, and lifted it onto the frame.    Apparently, it's a 'Queenslander' - a traditional style of house in the area.  They were usually built on stilts to allow airflow under the house, as a means of cooling.  In that case, I guess the area underneath might not be glazed in the end.  Maybe a shady place to sit or park the cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queenslander_(architecture)

[MrXxxx]

Do you know that feeling when you press Buy instead of Sell?...arghh!...good job I was only top skimming...had to resist the temptation to sell straight away though, would you experienced guys have sold?....

[Castlevania]

US Non Farm Payrolls: 2.5m jobs created. Unemployment down to 13.3%. That seems much better than I expected.

[BearyBear]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

US Non Farm Payrolls: 2.5m jobs created. Unemployment down to 13.3%. That seems much better than I expected.

Yep, Gold and Silver down, it will be interesting to watch if they get defended.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

33 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

US Non Farm Payrolls: 2.5m jobs created. Unemployment down to 13.3%. That seems much better than I expected.

So when the figures went up the US stock market rallied because they thought "Hey, more free cash", given that it should fall today...but it wont..."Hey, more free cash anyway"

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

So when the figures went up the US stock market rallied because they thought "Hey, more free cash", given that it should fall today...but it wont..."Hey, more free cash anyway"

The free cash was always a given

[BearyBear]

10 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

So when the figures went up the US stock market rallied because they thought "Hey, more free cash", given that it should fall today...but it wont..."Hey, more free cash anyway"

Warren Buffett must be going mad,  nobody needs his pile of cash these days.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

14 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Warren Buffett must be going mad,  nobody needs his pile of cash these days.

He shoulda bought easyjet when I said buy if it get's into the 4's

I shoulda bought easyjet when I said buy if it get's into the 4's

[Loki]

Trading212 is completely down and swamped 

(I only use it for a few CFD punts, mostly on the S&P but interesting that people will be jumping into stocks today)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

Trading212 is completely down and swamped 

(I only use it for a few CFD punts, mostly on the S&P but interesting that people will be jumping into stocks today)

The time to buy shares was 8 weeks ago.  Not is the time to watch and see if the virus comes back

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Woo hoo

Exxon Mobil Corporation

NYSE: XOM

53.16 USD +4.06 (8.27%)

 

People losing their jobs, great news for the Dow.  people not losing their jobs, great news for the Dow.

[Loki]

Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The time to buy shares was 8 weeks ago.  Not is the time to watch and see if the virus comes back

I am so curious what the end of the year will bring.  General consensus seems to be a good summer. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Woo hoo, I'm less poor !!!

 

Schlumberger NV

NYSE: SLB

22.46 USD +2.13 (10.48%)

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Mistakes I've made over the last few weeks:

1) Selling out of Easyjet too soon

2) Selling some check Shell shares to cut my losses

3) Accidentally buying shares from the wrong country

4) Not buying enough

5) should have sold everything as soon as it became clear things were going into lockdown.

6) Never buy the nameless ahre

7) Never buy bank shares

The only question is...will the virus come back with a bang.  We should be watching.

[janch]

5 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Aussie Government grant aid for house building and renovations. 
Pretty much my wildest dream come true, if not actually in my own country yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/04/who-is-eligible-for-homebuilder-grants-and-how-much-will-they-have-to-spend

There used to be similar schemes here.  I can remember getting a local authority grant for a new roof in 1980s.  The schemes covered damp proofing/double glazing/roofs etc and were a good way of upgrading all those Victorian houses plus small builders always had a lot of work.

There could well be similar schemes to come here.  A lot of the Victorian housing could do with further work by now........

[leonardratso]

a lot of newbuilds probably need a rebuild by now. same quality, just newer than new.

[Bricks & Mortar]

6 minutes ago, janch said:

There used to be similar schemes here.  I can remember getting a local authority grant for a new roof in 1980s.  The schemes covered damp proofing/double glazing/roofs etc and were a good way of upgrading all those Victorian houses plus small builders always had a lot of work.

There could well be similar schemes to come here.  A lot of the Victorian housing could do with further work by now........

I know.  My old man did loads of grant-aided work.  In the 70's, the government would pay 75% of a re-roofing or damp-proofing job if your house qualified as 'sub-standard'.  (They probably did do double-glazing as well, but round here, the houses are all conservation area, so not allowed).  The % went down in the 80's, first to 50, then 25%, and they disappeared by the 90's.

I'm thinking energy efficiency work.  Insulation, triple glazing, solar panels, heat pumps.   None of which is really up my street though.  I guess we could get into external wall insulation, or roof insulation, if it looked lucrative.
But, maybe just having half my competitors go chase the grants instead of competing with me would do just as nicely.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

I am so curious what the end of the year will bring.  General consensus seems to be a good summer. 

Seems to me that there's been a bit of a spike

 

I'm fully prepared to sell everything at wait till next year if/when this takes off again.

I'm still too minds as to whether this who thing is just a charade for the banker OWG to push it's agenda to a conclusion, $10 trillion says it is

 

 

[Craig]

Woo hoo!

Too far?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, Craig said:

Woo hoo!

Too far?

#PMSL.

 

[Bricormortis]

8 minutes ago, Craig said:

Woo hoo!

Too far?

I remember watching it fall and fall and then buying at 0.60 p and thinking I had played a blinder. 

[Chewing Grass]

Bank has turned the level of patronising irritation to the stratosphere today with extra 2 clicks over and above the previous extra clicks to make payments.

Makes no difference if you have been making the same payments for years as there is no intelligence behind it and they assume every account holder has the IQ of a Somalian Donkey.

The level banking paranoia has gone up a peg, I wonder why...

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I think they've taken out the ground floor and have the upper floor supported on a steel frame.  Expect it'll be glass on 3 sides when its done.

EDIT - This post suggests they've reclaimed the house from elsewhere, transported it to site, and lifted it onto the frame.    Apparently, it's a 'Queenslander' - a traditional style of house in the area.  They were usually built on stilts to allow airflow under the house, as a means of cooling.  In that case, I guess the area underneath might not be glazed in the end.  Maybe a shady place to sit or park the cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queenslander_(architecture)

Thanks for the info. BM. But wow! that's what I call 'extreme recycling'.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Seriously? That's just noise, like all the other noise you run your red line through. It may flatten and uptick, but you can't tell yet. As you said, the time to buy was 8 weeks ago, and I put up fag packet version of that for the forums benefit around then, with projections, which I'd made my buying decsions on. It wasn't perfect, it turned out more lognormal than normal, but near enough. The virus may well come back, but friendly advice is to try and get ahead of the curve, not the tail end!

Today is fun, I've topsliced SLB XOM and a few others, and bought Barrick, GDXJ, SSLV and a few others. Dyodd, enjoy!

I expect you are right...just keep an eye on it.

Maybe some people can comment this thought, at some point the bad news numbers are going to roll in, are these priced in or will we see falls again then ?