Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

What was it buffet said? 

 

Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

[wherebee]

Quick, sell all your oil shares!  Morgan Stanley say they are worthless!

https://insideevs.com/news/491697/morgan-stanley-oil-industry-will-become-worthless/

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Well you and me are entering a Suicide Short pact, because of someone on here doesn't short the shit out of this market soon then the honour of the Dosbods will be lost forever 😂

I have been short TSLA and PTON for months and have taken an absolute pasting - for the team, obviously...

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I have been short TSLA and PTON for months and have taken an absolute pasting - for the team, obviously...

I salute your sacrifice and courage. 

 

Not for nothing is the Dosbod motto  "one for all and all for one!" 

 

I like the cut of your jib sir! 

[wherebee]

OK, well I put in a cheeky high sell order for a fair chunk of BP (well above the current price.  Like, WELL above), as I will be asleep when the US market  runs overnight and who knows, if it shoots up due to the big mans financial COVID package and OPEC being bastards, I'll be taking 20k of profit which is not chickenfeed.  
 

Trying to be disciplined like DB and ladder in on the way up just as I did on the way down in Q3-4.

[ThoughtCriminal]

17 minutes ago, wherebee said:

OK, well I put in a cheeky high sell order for a fair chunk of BP (well above the current price.  Like, WELL above), as I will be asleep when the US market  runs overnight and who knows, if it shoots up due to the big mans financial COVID package and OPEC being bastards, I'll be taking 20k of profit which is not chickenfeed.  
 

Trying to be disciplined like DB and ladder in on the way up just as I did on the way down in Q3-4.

No one ever went bust taking a profit 👌

[M S E Refugee]

I am considering going into cash around the Grand re-opening on the 21st June.

 

[Calcutta]

I'm already in cash, besides some left over Shell and I'm watching it imb everyday, I've got the fomo, my brains telling me £14 for Shell and £3 for BP is still pretty cheap even if they take a little kicking along the way. 

[No One]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Why I'm heavy on the FTSE...

I've got a meagre amount in the markets compared to some people here, but I see some stocks and all I can think is buy buy buy.

 

My question is why is everyone going cash now?

 

What do you see that I don't?

[Noallegiance]

6 minutes ago, No One said:

I've got a meagre amount in the markets compared to some people here, but I see some stocks and all I can think is buy buy buy.

 

My question is why is everyone going cash now?

 

What do you see that I don't?

Not going cash yet but not buying more. I'm letting what I have got run and then I'll start taking out cash as and when the melt up starts looking (more) silly.

[Popuplights]

My RDSB holding is finally in the blue for the first time in 12 months. 

[No One]

Just now, Popuplights said:

My RDSB holding is finally in the blue for the first time in 12 months. 

I had to sell back in summer due to a debt I had and bought back in late 2020, so I'm looking very green now. I'm very happy. Up 12%, 20% in BP and Shell respectively. Happy days

[reformed nice guy]

25 minutes ago, No One said:

What do you see that I don't?

Im not liquidating shares to get cash, but cash that I am adding isnt getting used

Why? None are near my ladders!

The long answer is that I made lots of purchases last year when the market shat its pants and I am waiting for them to spaz out again

[wherebee]

25 minutes ago, No One said:

I've got a meagre amount in the markets compared to some people here, but I see some stocks and all I can think is buy buy buy.

 

My question is why is everyone going cash now?

 

What do you see that I don't?

Because I've done very very well since June 2020.  Overall portfolio is up 53% including dividends, which is simply huge.  And none of that is tech stocks at all.

So - I am just mindful of how much shit and made up numbers there are out there, and that a black swan might come along and blow everything up as happened last march.  I'd feel pretty bloody silly if I was 53% up in March 2021 and 5% up by April 2021.  I feel a crash is going to happen, and I don't know when.

Taking some profits means that I can be happier to let the rest run.  Example: I bought FFG when it was 0.04AUD.  I sold enough at 0.17 to get back every penny I had put in.  It ran quickly up to 0.45, then crashed to 0.12-0.14 in the space of a day.  Plenty of small investors on the aussie forums raging they didnt sell at the top.  Well, neither did I, but I made enough so I can't lose money now, and can just leave the stock alone.  It could well go to 1AUD in a year or so, I think, and taking profit early means I am much more likely to leave it alone.

[No One]

Just now, reformed nice guy said:

Im not liquidating shares to get cash, but cash that I am adding isnt getting used

Why? None are near my ladders!

The long answer is that I made lots of purchases last year when the market shat its pants and I am waiting for them to spaz out again

Oh, I see.

Well if it crashes again I'll be throwing the sink at my ISA and buying even more. I'll eat baked beans and walk to the shops instead of driving in order to chuck more at the markets. 

this is not financial advise

[planit]

5 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Im not liquidating shares to get cash, but cash that I am adding isnt getting used

Why? None are near my ladders!

The long answer is that I made lots of purchases last year when the market shat its pants and I am waiting for them to spaz out again

Ladders aren't going to work in a bull market if you are trying to increase the value you have in your portfolio (I am excluding profits here).

I am not saying we are in a bull market but it is something to think about or someone could end up 90% in cash just watching the world go by for 5 years.

 

After 5 years the world could be a very different place if a loaf of bread costs £56 (ok, I went for a M&S loaf)

 

Edit for clarity

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/lloyds-bank-to-become-private-landlord---report-7kvhd89udpvb5wp.html

 

 

If you're not shocked, you should be

 

[No One]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/lloyds-bank-to-become-private-landlord---report-7kvhd89udpvb5wp.html

 

 

If you're not shocked, you should be

 

jesus

[Yadda yadda yadda]

44 minutes ago, No One said:

I've got a meagre amount in the markets compared to some people here, but I see some stocks and all I can think is buy buy buy.

 

My question is why is everyone going cash now?

 

What do you see that I don't?

I'm not going cash with the shares I directly control. I have quite a lot in my employer's pension that is now approx. 30% cash. There is no way to get that into funds that target only the areas I want. For a DC pension the fund choice is quite good. There isn't an option to overweight Oilies, miners and telecoms. However, if I could easily transfer a chunk into my SIPP I would.

[Mapper]

16 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

The long answer is that I made lots of purchases last year when the market shat its pants and I am waiting for them to spaz out again

You have the makings of an IFA.

Sound advice I'd say!

[geordie_lurch]

11 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/lloyds-bank-to-become-private-landlord---report-7kvhd89udpvb5wp.html

 

If you're not shocked, you should be

Some more posted from the FT..

"The initiative, known internally as “Project Generation”, will involve buying and renting out new and existing housing stock across the UK, and aims to have its first tenants by the end of this year. "

!Lloyds is the UK’s largest mortgage lender and its commercial banking business has existing relationships with almost all the UK’s largest housebuilders. It has also directly invested in several housing projects with smaller developers in recent years through a partnership with Homes England. The bank said: “As we stated in our full-year results and our strategic review last week, we are committed to broadening access to home ownership and exploring opportunities to increase our support to the UK rental sector.”

As well as providing direct benefits through rental yield and house price growth, the bank is hoping the move will boost its existing businesses, for example by providing an opportunity to cross-sell rental deposit loans or insurance. It could also help fund Scottish Widows annuities. The UK had around 5.4m privately rented households in 2019, according to Knight Frank, and the number is expected to increase to almost 6m by 2023."

 

[feed]

Well, there is a need for landlords.  But what is better, large institutional landlords or "accidental" or small scale BTLers.  

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/lloyds-bank-to-become-private-landlord---report-7kvhd89udpvb5wp.html

 

 

If you're not shocked, you should be

 

Just repossess.

[No One]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

Some more posted from the FT..

"The initiative, known internally as “Project Generation”, will involve buying and renting out new and existing housing stock across the UK, and aims to have its first tenants by the end of this year. "

!Lloyds is the UK’s largest mortgage lender and its commercial banking business has existing relationships with almost all the UK’s largest housebuilders. It has also directly invested in several housing projects with smaller developers in recent years through a partnership with Homes England. The bank said: “As we stated in our full-year results and our strategic review last week, we are committed to broadening access to home ownership and exploring opportunities to increase our support to the UK rental sector.”

As well as providing direct benefits through rental yield and house price growth, the bank is hoping the move will boost its existing businesses, for example by providing an opportunity to cross-sell rental deposit loans or insurance. It could also help fund Scottish Widows annuities. The UK had around 5.4m privately rented households in 2019, according to Knight Frank, and the number is expected to increase to almost 6m by 2023."

The double speak is mind boggling.

If LLOYDS, as they say, buy up existing housing stock, then they are using capital to increase demand for housing, and forcing the younger ones into rent slavery. So they aren't fucking helping anyone into homeownership quite the opposite, they are helping themselves.

 

These people should have been lynched in 2008.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, feed said:

Well, there is a need for landlords.  But what is better, large institutional landlords or "accidental" or small scale BTLers.  

Lloyd's would get lots of bad publicity for failing to look after property or messing around with deposits. Presumably they wouldn't try and charge extra fees every time a fixed term came to an end. They would have professional managers. Should be much better to deal with.

Just so long as it doesn't go all WEF and no-one owns anything.