Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

24 minutes ago, Mooping said:

I wonder if someone can advise.....I have a Hargreaves Landsdown share account and I managed to purchase some GDXJ (Gold Junior Miners) there.  I want to purchase some junior silver miners via the SILJ etf but it isn't available on there.  How can I get around this?

I also wanted to dabble Denison Mines Corp which is listed on the NYSE.  I couldn't purchase that one either.  And Kazatomprom KAP which is listed on the LSE.  I know....neither for widows of orphans.  I wanted a bit of excitement in the Uranium sector.  Any advice on how I can purchase these?

Several posters here identified JUPITER GOLD AND SILVER as a good SIL/SILJ alternative.  I hold it too.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

WTI could easily go below $55,but dont worry about that its just shaking out,its going to $70 or more after this consolidation.That management at Bp need to stop paying down debt and start share buy backs while they can.

We should have started that fund and written to their investor relations department

[Mooping]

9 minutes ago, Loki said:

Several posters here identified JUPITER GOLD AND SILVER as a good SIL/SILJ alternative.  I hold it too.

Thanks.  Which broker did you use?  I can't find it with HL.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Mooping said:

Thanks.  Which broker did you use?  I can't find it with HL.

Weird, I am with HL.  Try this if you're logged in

https://online.hl.co.uk/my-accounts/security_details/sedol/BYVJRH9

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I installed Antennapod, but how do I get it to play the Youtube David Hunter meltup ? As you say would be good to be able to listen to it with hands free while doing something else.

Go to add podcast in the menu (the three bars top left hand corner of the screen) and add "Miles Franklin".  Do this either from the search podcast search bar function or directly using this url:

https://feeds.soundcloud.com/users/soundcloud:users:856479013/sounds.rss

You will see all the episodes for that podcaster as well as if you click episodes in the menu, and, if configured, in the queue by clicking queue in the menu.  The DH podcast should be the most recent episode.

Depending on the configuration, the episodes may download automatically or you can do that by clicking on the DH podcast episode.

If you get that to work, I can send you a few other podcasters of potential interest.

 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Ah sorry misunderstood, thought you were recommending Antennapod as a superior alternative to Youtube. Was wondering why I was getting nowhere typing "David Hunter" into Antennapod.

Youtube has a lot of deficiencies, like for example it wants to be in foreground on your phone. If you switch it to the background while you listen it just stops. Same if screensaver blanks screen.

Yep, AntennaPod just keeps playing, even if you turn your display off, etc.  Also integrates into the phone, etc so can pause on a call  etc, etc.  Very configurable like that but has an associated learning curve although the defaults are fine. 

No videos, just podcasts but many are not on Youtube whereas many Youtube ones (the audio) is on podcast, like this  Real Vision, etc.  Plus links to the relevant web pages for each podcast.  Supports subscription podcasts too.

As I said, great when working where watching a video could lose you a finger!  I have ear defender headphones with Bluetooth as well as just an earpiece so could pretty much be doing anything.

AntennaPod says I have 68 hours of listening outstanding so I need all the time I can get!

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Loki said:

That is a finely crafted bodge, I like it 

AntennaPod with no bodge. Click, download and play.  No Youtube ads, etc although the podcaster may add ads (very few do atm).

The only drawback is some of the user community seem to be the superior woke fascist type as some were suggesting censoring out (deplatforming) certain podcasters.  I went there to congratulate them on the product only to see that.  So sad, it's everywhere these days.  Don't know if it happened and I've had no problems.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Mooping said:

I wonder if someone can advise.....I have a Hargreaves Landsdown share account and I managed to purchase some GDXJ (Gold Junior Miners) there.  I want to purchase some junior silver miners via the SILJ etf but it isn't available on there.  How can I get around this?

I also wanted to dabble Denison Mines Corp which is listed on the NYSE.  I couldn't purchase that one either.  And Kazatomprom KAP which is listed on the LSE.  I know....neither for widows of orphans.  I wanted a bit of excitement in the Uranium sector.  Any advice on how I can purchase these?

You know about the KID issue on US ETFs?  If you want to see available ETFs (not funds) available to the retail UK investor, you can go to justetf.com, ensuring you have chosen UK retail investor.  They list lots of info, including the tickers for each exchange, although some brokers seem to make up their own! 

[Starsend]

4 hours ago, Mooping said:

I wonder if someone can advise.....I have a Hargreaves Landsdown share account and I managed to purchase some GDXJ (Gold Junior Miners) there.  I want to purchase some junior silver miners via the SILJ etf but it isn't available on there.  How can I get around this?

I also wanted to dabble Denison Mines Corp which is listed on the NYSE.  I couldn't purchase that one either.  And Kazatomprom KAP which is listed on the LSE.  I know....neither for widows of orphans.  I wanted a bit of excitement in the Uranium sector.  Any advice on how I can purchase these?

SILJ isn't available on HL cos of the KID issue.

Denison mines is. I hold it in my SIPP, think it was on the Toronto exchange though.

Kazatomprom not available on HL even though London listed as not settled via Crest. You can buy it through Interactive Brokers as I have or through degiro, not sure about others.

[23rdian]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

SILJ isn't available on HL cos of the KID issue.

Denison mines is. I hold it in my SIPP, think it was on the Toronto exchange though.

Kazatomprom not available on HL even though London listed as not settled via Crest. You can buy it through Interactive Brokers as I have or through degiro, not sure about others.

This KID thing is a pain in the arse. So many ETFs I fancy but only available to the muricans or the canucks. 

Does anyone know the best alternatives to something like QYLD or SCHD for starters?

[nirvana]

[harp]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

WTI could easily go below $55,but dont worry about that its just shaking out,its going to $70 or more after this consolidation.That management at Bp need to stop paying down debt and start share buy backs while they can.

(Reuters) - BP (LON:BP) expects to reach its $35 billion net debt target in the first quarter of 2021, the energy group said on Tuesday, following earlier-than-expected proceeds from disposals and a "very strong" quarter.

The company, which had a debt pile of $39 billion at the end of 2020, had earlier expected to reduce its debt to $35 billion around the fourth quarter of 2021 or first quarter of 2022.

BP plans to start share buybacks once it reaches its debt target. The company said it would provide an update on share buybacks during its first-quarter results on April 27.

The London-based company said on Tuesday it expects sale proceeds in 2021 to be at the top end of its existing $4 billion to $6 billion range.

 

The oil major plunged to a $5.7 billion loss last year, its first in a decade, as the COVID-19 pandemic took a heavy toll on oil demand and in February warned of a tough start to 2021 amid widespread travel restrictions.

[Seacrest]

BP announcement this morning on very strong performance, debt reduction achieved in Q1  ... buybacks going to be restarted. 

[nirvana]

On 04/04/2021 at 21:34, sancho panza said:

We will see euphoria in next few months.

 

euphoria in what?

[Fully Detached]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

euphoria in what?

Me. I bought some BP last week 

(Not enough to get excited about, but I will get excited all the same. You've got to celebrate the little wins)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

euphoria in what?

In euphoria!

[geordie_lurch]

BP is still under 300p a share despite the news though

[Loki]

33 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

BP is still under 300p a share despite the news though

Just gone over

[DurhamBorn]

Should be remembered that BP expected debt to go up the first half as they paid for the Equinor joint venture in the US etc.

Obvious they are making like bandits as a blind man could of seen.The trading business will of been making hay on gas as well.

As a shareholder though id prefer the shares stayed down while they kicked in share buy backs,after all the cheaper they are the better.A big part of the bull case on BP is the share buy backs because in a higher price area that we expect they should be able to retire a lot of the equity.I expect Imperial Brands and BAT to do the same once they get their debts down.Industries nobody wants to invest in that will probably return 12% to 15% pa compounding over the cycle.

At $65 brent id expect around 21p a year in share buybacks.At $85 Brent id expect around 37p a year in buybacks,though i expect instead we would get around 25p and more debt repayments and higher renewable investment.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

In euphoria!

the markets look like they want to take a shite again to me.......GBP euphoria didn't last too long yesterday, it's getting dumped again today 

so some guy tweeted this morning:

logically speaking, there really is no justification for the US stock indexes to ever have a PB, ever again...let alone a full blown correction (which would just be absurd)

So in the light of this BK, someone please remind me of the reasoning for it?

I keep going off on tangents...some other nerd mentioned 'mental models' too, apparently the great messiahs Musk and Bezos use these....

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

the markets look like they want to take a shite again to me.......GBP euphoria didn't last too long yesterday, it's getting dumped again today 

so some guy tweeted this morning:

logically speaking, there really is no justification for the US stock indexes to ever have a PB, ever again...let alone a full blown correction (which would just be absurd)

So in the light of this BK, someone please remind me of the reasoning for it?

I keep going off on tangents...some other nerd mentioned 'mental models' too, apparently the great messiahs Musk and Bezos use these....

Because liquidity isnt constant.Doesnt matter how high a new dam wall is to how high the water in it is.If the water drops more than 3 feet i cant dangle me feet in it anymore even though its the highest dam wall ever built.

Fed fills the capital markets as thats the conduit to get money into the real economy.We are entering a distribution cycle.

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Because liquidity isnt constant.Doesnt matter how high a new dam wall is to how high the water in it is.If the water drops more than 3 feet i cant dangle me feet in it anymore even though its the highest dam wall ever built.

Fed fills the capital markets as thats the conduit to get money into the real economy.We are entering a distribution cycle.

yeah ok BUT there is no evidence the FED will ever turn the taps off EVER again is there? So the markets will benefit and just keep rising......of course there are pullbacks on the way so you just keep buying the PBs.....like papa Buffet has been telling us.....I can go find the gif if you like? 

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, nirvana said:

yeah ok BUT there is no evidence the FED will ever turn the taps off EVER again is there? So the markets will benefit and just keep rising......of course there are pullbacks on the way so you just keep buying the PBs.....like papa Buffet has been telling us.....I can go find the gif if you like? 

Fed and BOE have already indicated to governments they have a window and that it needs to be a fiscal move.Fed couldnt give a toss if Tesla is knocked down 70% or any other stock.3% inflation and staying above it will be the signal.They want to keep inflation at 3% for as long as they can and rates around 0.5%.Inflation is not good for most of the bubble stocks.Once economy opens up Amazon for example will be facing inflation in every area ,falling margins and maybe flatlining sales at best in its retail business.

 

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They want to keep inflation at 3% for as long as they can and rates around 0.5%.Inflation is not good for most of the bubble stocks

this definition of inflation is a load o complete BS and it has been for decades......inflation is anything they want it to be..

Sure the FED don't care about 'Musk the Messiah' but he's outperformed the Oilies since April last year somewhat eh? And he's even done better than Royal Mail 

 

[Chewing Grass]

23 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

So government debt to gdp has hit its highest peak since Britain was swinging in the early 1960s.

Then they nationalised everything, staggered trough the early 1970s, joined the EEC in 1975, everything went to shit Industrially between 1975 & 1981 followed by urban dereliction and riots as the debt pile dropped to an all time low of 20% about 1990.

Can't help but think history will repeat itself and the next 20 years are going to get grimmer & grimmer.

Can't help but think of this, starting with the COVID years, rinse and repeat.

The UK is king of the hill at this bar communism.

1939-45 During World War II, much of British industry was subjected to close regulation or control, although not nationalised as such.

1943 North of Scotland Hydro-Electricity Board

1945-51 The Labour Party comes to power in the Attlee ministry with a program for nationalising weak sectors of the economy.[51][52][53]

1946 Coal industry under the National Coal Board (later British Coal) with the Coal Industry Nationalisation Act 1946.[54]

1946 Bank of England - its private shareholders who were bought out by the state.[55]

1946 National Health Service created taking over hospitals and making medical services free by the National Health Service Act 1946.[56]

1947 Central Electricity Generating Board and area electricity boards. Privatized in the 1990s.[57]

1947 Cable & Wireless Ltd - the latter had had private shareholders who were bought out by the state.[58]

1948 National rail, inland (not marine) water transport, some road haulage, some road passenger transport and Thomas Cook & Son under the British Transport Commission. Separate elements operated as British Railways, British Road Services, and British Waterways.[59]

1949 Local authority gas supply undertakings in England, Scotland and Wales[57]

1951 Iron and Steel Industry under the Iron and Steel Corporation of Great Britain (denationalised by Conservative Government in 1955)[60][61]

1967 British Steel Corporation Re-nationalized (Reprivatized by the Conservative Government in September 1988)

1969 National Bus Company, combining former interests of the British Transport Commission with others acquired from the British Electric Traction group.

1969 Post Office Corporation created by the Post Office Act 1969.

1971 Rolls-Royce (1971) Ltd - The strategically important aero-engine part of the recently bankrupt Rolls-Royce Limited.

1973 Water Act 1973 nationalises local authority water supply undertakings in England and Wales

1973 British Gas Corporation created, replacing regional gas boards.

1974 British Petroleum - the combination of a 50% stake bought by Winston Churchill as First Lord of the Admiralty after World War I with around a 25% stake acquired by the Bank of England from Burmah Oil made the government directly or indirectly BP's majority shareholder, though commercial independence was maintained. The shares were all sold during the 1980s.

1975 National Enterprise Board - a State holding company for full or partial ownership of industrial undertakings

1976 British Leyland Motor Corporation - became British Leyland upon nationalization under the National Enterprise Board. Later became known simply as the holding company "BL Ltd", it was later reorganised into several standalone businesses - the best known being Austin Rover, Leyland Trucks, Freight Rover, Land Rover and Jaguar.

1977 British Aerospace - combining the major aircraft companies British Aircraft Corporation, Hawker Siddeley and others. British Shipbuilders - combining the major shipbuilding companies including Cammell Laird, Govan Shipbuilders, Swan Hunter, Yarrow Shipbuilders under the Aircraft and Shipbuilding Industries Act 1977.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nationalizations_by_country