Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Solicitors will inspect your arse with a magnifying glass over any large cash transaction here now, there is no escape.

Australia may still turn a blind eye (Crown Casinos, anyone?).

Lawyers in Australia not covered by money laundering laws.  They've been fighting it for years, apparently.... 

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, leonardratso said:

quite, dont want to move into a drug dealers ex house, a lot of his rivals and clients wont have got the message and will still turn up to 'do im in' or 'buy some shit'.

Youll become collateral damage.

Either that or someones grassed that hes got 100K sat around in the house, eh eh.

Like Aww says, its probably just some hurty words on twitter, or more than 2 maskless people congregating in an anti covid manner.

I went to a stabbing once.Mistaken identity in terms of the hosue.That's unlucky.

 

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Now I know I post often saying it could go either way but so it is for the oillies.  Big picture montly charts say massive room to go up.  The daily charts show most are overbought but history for the likes of RDSB say they can stay this way for quite some time, sometimes just treading water but other times seeing large gains.  Price (candles) have hit prior support levels so need to break through this resistance.  To (recent) date, every successive overbought situation has led to a higher high except the current one (if it has indeed uncharacteristically completed).  Today's candle for RDSB suggests market indicision.  A pullback, as is happening, seems quite reasonable.  A more sustained, material, pullback is possible but things certainly are interesting.  A great time to be timing further entries since the lows.  I'm maybe fully allocated to RDSB (need to reconsider) but am eyeing up other plays to extend into Europe, Asia and Russia.  The latter two are moving but could be signalling the tail end of the run up, or a more broader move.   REP does seem to be moving but the very big picture is lower lows, although plenty of upside each time to be worth it.

PS:  Maybe simliar in some of our other beloved sectors, I need to check, but right now I have logging and 142 trade signals from Japan to work through - Nochihodo!

 

This is a great reminder to use different timeframes when charting.I take a great deal of notice of the monthlies from as I like to surf with the tide.

The disconcerting thing with the oilies at the minute is the lack of pullbacks in the underlying.snd here's Brents weekly chart showing the force is with it.

[Mapper]

4 hours ago, Calcutta said:

I was going to have a double big mac when I saw them advertised, just for a trip down memory lane.

I sometimes have a Big Mac when I'm feeling nostalgic. For some reason, I think I'm going to be enjoying a guilty pleasure. But, at the end of it I always feel like McDonald's has consumed part of my soul.

[sancho panza]

Shamelessly taken from Dr Clare Craig's twitter feed.Prize for anyone that reckons they could spot the pandemic year in all cause mortality chart without the numbers beneath it.

Shocking what's been done in the name of suppressing the population covid

 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

I only go into K&S because of this thread.  It failed my screen.  So much for you lot!  But trust me to pick one of the rare (potentially) duff ones.  I guess you either go big into the whole thread portfolio or go home!  Don't know what the hit is but know it's going to be a small percentage of the portfolio, that's what you do dontaknow!

The scales fell from my eyes regarding Germany with the Milli Vanili lip sync scandal... crass example perhaps, but I am of course self-censoring and could instead have chosen a much earlier historical  example, however didn't want to prematurely invoke Godwin's law!!

[sancho panza]

I know there's a few on here have started talking goldies again for the first time in a while.These two Tweets sum up the two sides of the equation.

Gold is suffering on the ring real rates but you look at the Fed balance sheet and it shouldn;t be too long before it bounces

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Mcflation is here!

Just got 20 chicken nugget box (don't judge), now £4.79 up from £4.19. THEN I notice the temporary 5% VAT still in place, so real cost £5.50. 30% increase!

That's 27.5p for each nugget of ...chicken!!!, well I suppose they aint called the 'Golden Arches' for nothing?

[wherebee]

Re Pension funds - one of my old Australian employers made the contributions go into a certain scheme.  I haven't touched it for years, but it has grown substantially and just hit 100k.  It climbed 10% in the past 8 months!  A mixture of Aussie and international investments.  No way to chose sectors such as oil, etc.

But - on checking today they have crept the fees up over the years to now be just under 1%, each and every year.  Outrageous.

A self managed super here in Australia costs 2k to set up and 2k a year to run, roughly.  So I need a total pot of over 250k to be saving on that 1% fee; which I should get when I consolidate funds from overseas, etc (thanks Tony Blair for fucking us expats over and making it so hard to do that).

 

Anyway, my point for posting in this thread is that I have just moved the whole 100k into cash.  I do think we are due a BK this year, and by moving the 100k into cash the management fees go down to 0.1% and the returns between 1-1.5%.  Plus, if we see a spike in inflation and interest rates, it could go up by more than the predicted.

Something to think about if you have pensions and expect a BK - you might be able to move it into a lower cost slice under some schemes.

[wherebee]

Read this today in the Australian:

Cost are rising across the mining industry as the renewed boom in the iron ore and gold sectors puts pressure on other sections of the industry, according to South32 boss Graham Kerr. 

Speaking after delivering South32’s half-year results, which included a stronger outlook for the diversified miner’s base metals output, Mr Kerr told The Australian cost escalation in wages — particularly in technical and specialist roles — was again on the rise, putting pressure on costs across the Australian industry

fits in with the inflationary pressures projection

[Castlevania]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

Lawyers in Australia not covered by money laundering laws.  They've been fighting it for years, apparently.... 

The introduction of anti money laundering laws has definitely helped reduce prices in Prime Central London.

[nirvana]

he smelt those sells coming 

[JREWING]

33 minutes ago, nirvana said:

he smelt those sells coming 

Triple witching today.

Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options expire.

Tidy buyins Oil and Miners. Will see what candy we can pick when the Yanks join the party.

GSK sub 2.30, yes please. Like Xmas.

[Noallegiance]

Interesting watch 

 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

Triple witching today.

GSK sub 2.30, yes please. Like Xmas.

ah yes those pesky witches.......what diary do you use for that sort of stuff sir? not mentioned on FF

I thought GSK were Glaxo Smithkline drug dealing barstewards? But they're at £12 odd.....

Cheers!

 

[Lightscribe]

14 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Believe it or not, the ebay seller effectively paid me £120 to take it off his hands. One of those really odd auctions starting at 99p. Now and then I'll have a look at what's ending in antiques on ebay. I managed to bag the ingot (66g) and another 350g of hallmarked silver (mustard pots, knives, pepperette etc) for £84 + £3 postage. 

Don't worry there's plenty of it to go around 

I have been looking at one of these with a side hobby aim of melting down scrap silver into hand poured bars. 

It could be the new Dosbods Ferrari pizza oven if we could all agree on a team logo to stamp our ingots with. 

 

[M S E Refugee]

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I have been looking at one of these with a side hobby aim of melting down scrap silver into hand poured bars. 

It could be the new Dosbods Ferrari pizza oven if we could all agree on a team logo to stamp our ingots with. 

 

They would be difficult to resell without an Assay Certificate.

[nirvana]

computer error

[nirvana]

another computer error....

[King Penda]

15 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Everyone knows that you should only buy off the pound saver menu. Two double cheeseburgers; large fries and can of Coke from the corner shop will set you back around a fiver. That’s reasonable value if you’re out and about and need sustenance.

24 cans of coke can be got for 6 quid just leave a few in your boot for emergencies even more of a saveing 

[JREWING]

25 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I thought GSK were Glaxo Smithkline drug dealing barstewards? But they're at £12 odd.....

 

 

Inghell....

Half asleep, I meant sub 12.30 GSK.

 

[JMD]

32 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I have been looking at one of these with a side hobby aim of melting down scrap silver into hand poured bars. 

It could be the new Dosbods Ferrari pizza oven if we could all agree on a team logo to stamp our ingots with. 

 

As per recent discussions, if Harp's house purchase goes through he might be able to put you in contact with someone who can 'handle the assaying'!!!

But serious question, could you actually sell the bars without silver assay marks? Or would you just look to store it away, until its worth $300/oz, then get it assayed job-lot fashion? 

 

Edit ...oops just seen mse refugee's same question

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, JMD said:

But serious question, could you actually sell the bars without silver assay marks? 

I'm a buyer at discounted prices......

cable hit 1.40........and retraced 20 pips........

[JMD]

On 17/02/2021 at 17:26, Noallegiance said:

More meaty than Twitter:

 

I am a fan of DH. However i note that DH mentions in his new video that he has redone his figures and now forecasts a q2 melt-up with sp500 going to 4,600+++. With the big market correction happening in the subsequent 6-months following said melt-up.                                                                         I use the word 'forecasts' because DH himself comments in video that other financial commentators are now beginning to join his thesis, but that in order to be right, you really need to get the 'timing correct'!! He's 100% correct in saying that about the timing, but as others have noted before - DH is a macro guy so why does he continue to make detailed calls? Especially as he keeps moving his own predictions forward every 3/6 months... so by his own definition, he is also wrong, wrong, wrong, then eventually right? Very frustrating.

[nirvana]

52 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I re read that and realise it's a bit short term trade-ey rather than macro-ey

indeed, WTI crude is still up over 10% on Jan's close.........'polar bear' smelt the dip cos the parabolic rise in Feb was clearly unsustainable.......particularly since it was stuck in a channel for most of Jan 

[Loki]

K+S potash back up by 5%