Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Starsend]

I'm now seriously thinking of selling BP and Shell and increasing my holdings in Chevron / Occidental instead. Hopefully the Americans will be less likely to do this kind of nonsense. Long term holdings for me so don't want the Government stealing my dividends whenever they need more money to give to the benny crew.

Noticed Drax down 18%, seems a little overdone to me so taken a position to hopefully capture a cheeky little bounce.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Good reporting from Sky and some part truths at the end from former BOE Governor Mervyn King that it was a 'mistaken diagnosis' that all central banks made in printing too much in response to the plandemic that has caused this inflation.

I still think the massive money drop was intentional but that's just my opinion.

 

100% intentional IMHO

[Hardhat]

Meanwhile, nice fat ABRDN divi landed today.

Hopefully the sector stays down for a while and more ladders can be bought... 

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

That is the best quote iv read since i started this thread,sums up where we are in the cycle, DISTRIBUTION.

Sounds more like redistribution to me 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

100% intentional IMHO

Of course it is, if it was all down to incompetence occasionally 'we' would win

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I just found out that a guy I used to go to School with committed suicide after getting himself into debt buying Bitcoin.

I am sorry for your loss.

I am conflicted about feeling vindicated that the latest round of Bitcoin mania has yet again collapsed, and yet also feeling great sympathy for the individuals harmed by it all. Leveraging to buy magic beans was always going to end badly of course.(Crypto may have genuine uses, but speculation is just speculation)

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Of course it is, if it was all down to incompetence occasionally 'we' would win

It was all too coincidental, was it the repo rate shooting up Dec 2019....2 months later they've pledge $10Tn and everyone is happy again.

it's an outright act of theft and the sheeple were conned in 2008 when the wheeled out QE...it was just another name for money printing theft.

We are fucked, totally fucked and there is nothing that'll stop it now IMHO.

The other half of my gold order arrives today, I might do a Papillon so they dont find it when they come searching.

[HousePriceMania]

35 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Gov looking into taxing electricity producers as well as oil and gas.

See afly's post at the top of this page.

Where do they get their money from ?

They are looking at taxing us !!!!

[DurhamBorn]

Take a look at Sterling today,markets showing the government just what happens when they start to launch direct theft.Capital goes somewhere else.This government won a landslide because the people wanted right wing policy,they got the most left wing in our countries history.Incredible stuff.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I just found out that a guy I used to go to School with committed suicide after getting himself into debt buying Bitcoin.

Fecken hell, that's terrible.  If it goes to 0 there will be a lot more of this sadly.

 

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, THEFREEMAN said:

Usd is collapsing

DXY dipping below 102 now, down from ~105. Shortly after the media were all aboard the "dollar to infinty" train. US 10yr now just above 2.8%, again just after the media were calling for it to go ever higher. There is definitely something to contrarianism.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Take a look at Sterling today,markets showing the government just what happens when they start to launch direct theft.Capital goes somewhere else.This government won a landslide because the people wanted right wing policy,they got the most left wing in our countries history.Incredible stuff.

I said during the CV19 handouts Sunak was the greatest labour chancellor in history.

he went full communist in the end

[geordie_lurch]

31 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Take a look at Sterling today,markets showing the government just what happens when they start to launch direct theft.Capital goes somewhere else.This government won a landslide because the people wanted right wing policy,they got the most left wing in our countries history.Incredible stuff.

My only worry is that with the new Boris pics today he will be out shortly and we will get someone even worse such as Rishi or Jeremy Cunt taking us full WEF then be forced to choose between them and Keir fucking Starmer at the next elections

Our only real hope is if the sheeple reject all this and we get something genuinely different but populist leaders always tend to be wrong uns in the end too

[HousePriceMania]

Has anyone in power thought about raising IRs 10% ?

That might fix something.

[feed]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Maybe a near collapse in the state,they have no idea this cycle is just starting,not ending.Its a huge shock to them that the BOE cant monetise anymore.So they now go after capital and wealth.Of course this is the point investment then slows or stops.Tax is one thing,but they are moving to outright theft.

It’s certainly possible. But printing bad, is trickling out.  

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/mervyn-king-needless-money-printing-fuelled-inflation

One of the major problems, Lord King said, was that the Bank went too hard and too fast with its money printing. ‘Governments stepped in and put in a lot of money for furlough schemes or raising unemployment benefits. That was very sensible,’ he said. ‘The problem was that central banks also printed a great deal of money and that wasn't needed… it put a lot of money into the system.

We know the state has the ability to move most of the country in any direction it wants, when it wants. 

It’s going to become a race between policy change, led by those that do understand and those that don’t or have an interest in the current system.  Once it’s policy that increasing velocity is the last they should do, it stops.    

I don’t know who wins or if they move quickly enough.

But I’m fairly optimistic.   I think Putin has given them something else to worry about and they’re fundamentally weak people..  They’ll blink, if there is enough resistance to proposed tax thefts.  
 

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, afly said:

Sunak orders plan for windfall tax on electricity generators

Treasury scheme would come in addition to levies on North Sea oil and gas producers

https://www.ft.com/content/ddbde592-a4e0-465a-9dd2-d6566790403f

---

Struggling to understand the thinking here. Everything we need investment in, they are discouraging investors.

They seem to be mind-bendingly stupid at a time when we desperately need quality leadership

There is absolutely no coherent tax policy at all in the U.K. so you end up with nonsense like the Chancellor freezing personal allowances, raising NIC and then talking about cutting Basic Rate Tax by a 1p. They need to make much more significant changes to tax and benefits than this sort of tinkering. At the very least benefit rises should be set at the middle of some basic range that can never increase by a greater percentage  than average wages.

[HousePriceMania]

I love a bit of gold in the morning

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

My only worry is that with the new Boris pics today he will be out and we will get someone even worse such as Rishi or Jeremy Cunt then have to choose between them and Kier fucking Starmer

It's like it's rigged.

I dont Sunak would become king, unless the bankers really are deciding who is PM

[marceau]

14 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

My only worry is that with the new Boris pics today he will be out shortly and we will get someone even worse such as Rishi or Jeremy Cunt taking us full WEF then be forced to choose between them and Keir fucking Starmer at the next elections

Our only real hope is if the sheeple reject all this and we get something genuinely different but populist leaders always tend to be wring uns in the end too

We need wrong 'uns at this point. No other type will have the guts to do what needs to be done.

The future is shakedowns. We need to be the ones doing the shaking. 

[Sasquatch]

I've converted a bit more of my fiat this week.

 

[Democorruptcy]

42 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Unlike the oil companies, the utilities are captive in the UK. I suspect they are moving this way because someone told them that BP and Shell make very little profit in the UK, and possibly can't steal their worldwide earnings. Oil companies are mobile, utilities are stuck here.

Interesting that DRX, SSE, CNA are all having a terrible day so far but NG is only -1%, I thought they would also be in the naughty corner.

[working woman]

OK, so this is a Distribution cycle, or as someone up thread has just said, a Redistribution cycle, which seems more likely / appropriate. 

The question is, what is the new way that the money is going to flow. How is it going to be redistributed.

I can definately see it going into Green stuff, but what about other things.

Having read the last few pages it seems likely to be taking even more money via taxes and  inflation on everyday living expenses, from the productive workers and giving it to the Benefits class and the Wealthy, the latter the same old. 

Am I missing anything else?

Most working people / employees have wealth in their house, savings/investments and pensions, plus their monthly salary.

As we are in the majority, and an easy target it looks like it is going to be us. The wealthy and businesses influence law making.

I'm quite shocked to DB's post about how much his neighbour gets. I know other Dosbodders are on benefits and have posted what they get.  I got my calculator out and based on working 37.5 hours a week, she is getting more per hour than a single person working full time on minimum wage. That is not right.

To get this straight, I am going to pay higher fuel bills this winter, which will lead to a windfall tax, which will be paid to people receiving more than I and my husband make per hour working. 

My experience of the benefits class in my my family:

I have family members who pleaded poverty and said at one point, all they ate was beans on toast - morbidly obese.  Went to visit and for breakfast, we all had a a huge breakfast, then followed by several digestive biscuits and a cup of tea. 

The fathers never paid a penny towards their kids - that is wrong and needs sorting.

I have family coming over from Australia, one been on OZ benefits for years due to depression. Funnily enough, they come over every year for 2 months in our summer and she manages to drive all over the UK and Europe for miles. I often go away with them for a week or two, never seen her depressed. I love them dearly but................

She has just asked me to help her buy a car for their next trip, research help, not cash.  It was a big fat no from me, I work for a living, they have all the time in the world.   Funnily enough they never tell their friends they come to Europe every year. They all work and I suspect it wouldn't  go down well. This year, they are spending 3 nights in a chateau at 4-500 a night, to indulge their dreams of buying, doing up and living in a chateau.

Meanwhile, I'm now off to work and likely to be a punch bag for my boss who is highly stressed as her assistant has just left. If she starts, I will politely suggest she takes a 5 minute break and go and have a cuppa. Not putting up with that crap.

 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

36 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I love a bit of gold in the morning

It's like it's rigged.

I dont Sunak would become king, unless the bankers really are deciding who is PM

This arrived this morning, a 1oz 2015 Gold Year of the Sheep.

It has been the Year of the Sheep every year since 2019.

[Democorruptcy]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Take a look at Sterling today,markets showing the government just what happens when they start to launch direct theft.Capital goes somewhere else.This government won a landslide because the people wanted right wing policy,they got the most left wing in our countries history.Incredible stuff.

80 seat majority kaput already and after the election I thought they were good for a long long time. Which voters do the Tories think they appeal to now? Inflation stuffs the poorer end, RPI 11% base rate 1% stuffs savers, now they are taking capital from investors, Brexit hasn't reduced immigration, all they have is making people feel wealthy by being in more debt to service high house prices and mortgage rates going up is going to make them squeal.

[Democorruptcy]

36 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

I've converted a bit more of my fiat this week.

 

Those look like proper coins, not like those chocolate ones that @HousePriceManiabought in a little string net.