Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Loki]

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[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I think most pensions assume 7% real growth over the long term.

It looks like broadly the average pension has been averaging about 7% growth but it doesnt mention inflation so I assume thats nominal:

https://www.moneyfactsgroup.co.uk/media-centre/consumer/pension-funds-and-annuity-income-returns-growth/

 

We checked the staff one at work (Legal & General) and it had averaged 2% over the last 3 years.

Here is another one I have watched in the past at another local employer, same +2.27% over 3 years.

Can't see them improving either.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[DurhamBorn]

10 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

We checked the staff one at work (Legal & General) and it had averaged 2% over the last 3 years.

Here is another one I have watched in the past at another local employer, same +2.27% over 3 years.

Can't see them improving either.

You would find more down the back of the sofa,fees will of taken much more than that.Shocking.

[HousePriceMania]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The pizzeria Caputo 00 is even better than the blue,beautiful flour.Im as frugal as they come,but even with Caputo its only 44p for the base including yeast.Like you say a big bag if you dont want to buy the 10 packs,i wish i could buy if from a shop but none around me have it.

Have a look for Italian wholesellers. We're luck to have one within driving distance.

[Dogtania]

Wrt to pizza I also picked up the Ferrari from Germany recently.  Been thinking for ages about getting and thought the price and availability only likely to get worse.

Only tried one batch, used 00flour Sainsbury's own brand and followed pizza pilgrims recipe, no oil or sugar.  Left for 24 hours for fermentation.  Found the stretching bit not great, kept ending up with a few holes I kept having to plug with more dough.  So thicker than I'd have expected (as in photo).  Still very tasty straight off the stone though.  Kept one for the next day too and ate cold was still good.  Quite often with ready made pizza crap I end up with a dodgy stomach, not this time guess because not filled with cheap processed crap.

Work in progress though, will try dough suggestions above and fresh yeast.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Dogtania said:

Wrt to pizza I also picked up the Ferrari from Germany recently.  Been thinking for ages about getting and thought the price and availability only likely to get worse.

Only tried one batch, used 00flour Sainsbury's own brand and followed pizza pilgrims recipe, no oil or sugar.  Left for 24 hours for fermentation.  Found the stretching bit not great, kept ending up with a few holes I kept having to plug with more dough.  So thicker than I'd have expected (as in photo).  Still very tasty straight off the stone though.  Kept one for the next day too and ate cold was still good.  Quite often with ready made pizza crap I end up with a dodgy stomach, not this time guess because not filled with cheap processed crap.

Work in progress though, will try dough suggestions above and fresh yeast.

Needs some olive oil in the dough,i dont stretch i roll very gently so as not to knock the air out,just dont press down hard,looks a great first effort though and like you say no shite added in.

[HousePriceMania]

22 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Wrt to pizza I also picked up the Ferrari from Germany recently.  Been thinking for ages about getting and thought the price and availability only likely to get worse.

Only tried one batch, used 00flour Sainsbury's own brand and followed pizza pilgrims recipe, no oil or sugar.  Left for 24 hours for fermentation.  Found the stretching bit not great, kept ending up with a few holes I kept having to plug with more dough.  So thicker than I'd have expected (as in photo).  Still very tasty straight off the stone though.  Kept one for the next day too and ate cold was still good.  Quite often with ready made pizza crap I end up with a dodgy stomach, not this time guess because not filled with cheap processed crap.

Work in progress though, will try dough suggestions above and fresh yeast.

Looks Tasty !!!

" no oil"  I put one table spoon in mine ( 1kg total weight ) as I think it makes my dough much more stretchy

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

i roll very gently 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, JohnnyB said:

My advanced scientific analysis when watching news clips of Brits claiming they can't afford food:

-if the mum is fat, it's a lie

-if the kids are fat, it's a lie

 

My addendum to that would be when watching news clips of people claiming they can't afford to heat their home:                        - if mum is wearing a t-shirt/or children have no socks on, it's a lie.                                                          ...ps a few weeks ago BBC carried a news item of this 'scene' actually happening (talk about being self unaware!)... plus the cherry on the cake was that a local charity worker was present discussing with the single parent how they might help her pay her energy bills!!                                                                                              The 'charity economy' has a lot to answer for imo, encouraging an idleness culture, etc.

[JMD]

17 hours ago, Harley said:

Time to cross off logistics as an ok sector in my Reit portfolio then.  That leaves mostly just the ill and elderly. 

How ironic, a distribution cycle without distribution centres?!

[janch]

7 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Some benefits like you describe seem ridiculously high, some seem ridiculously low 

I've never understood why everything ie benefits and wages always incease by a percentage rather than by a set amount as percentage increases distort payments over time.  This would explain the huge differences between those at the top and bottom.  Even within the benefits system the amount a single man gets on JSA is minimal compared with someone on disability benefits and every year the uprate distorts it further.  This has gone on for years hence the huge disparity.

At a very simple level a 3% increase on £100 is £3 yet on say £500 is £15 so the following year the incease at 3% would be 3% on £103 vs 3% on £515 and every subsequent year the disparity increases further.  I know everyone on here knows this but I wonder about journalists, politicians, people setting wages etc.  Do they ever think about the absolute amounts their increases achieve?

[janch]

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Coal is now like 'the Pox', not something you want to be visibly seen with...

Saying that......I've just had my best divi to date from Thungela

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Can you put ready made or will just burn it as too hot?

I have an oven with a separate smaller top part and a larger bottom. I usually do one pizza in the top or use the bottom if i'm doing two. I do ready made pizzas, have sometimes bought made up pizza bases and other times the pizza base mixes that just need water adding.

[janch]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

We checked the staff one at work (Legal & General) and it had averaged 2% over the last 3 years.

Here is another one I have watched in the past at another local employer, same +2.27% over 3 years.

Can't see them improving either.

When I worked in the pension review in the 90s (also L&G in Cardiff but I don't live there any more)  we used to see projections of up to around 15% IIRC.  They didn't achieve this hence the pension review as many people were enticed out of their decent FS schemes by the slick pensions salesforce. 

[HousePriceMania]

Has anyone done sourdough pizza ?

I cultivated a starter for months and the bread it made was shit, but the pizzas were pretty outstanding. Sourdough garlic bread was fantastic

[Barnsey]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/23/bq-kingfisher-inflation-diy-demand-sales-covid

I like B&Q, used to work for them, but perhaps they've underestimated just how much consumers will pull back?

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Has anyone done sourdough pizza ?

I cultivated a starter for months and the bread it made was shit, but the pizzas were pretty outstanding. Sourdough garlic bread was fantastic

Pizza dough is the same as bread dough, no difference really to the basic recipe.

I make a cheaty sourdough. Mix half the flour with all the water, add yeast then leave for 24 hours to ferment. Add the other half of the flour next day, mix and leave to prove. Works a treat.

Also, adding to other posters who have mentioned proving pizza dough in the fridge, yes it works a treat, dough lasts for a couple of days and rises much quicker in the oven than room temputure fresh dough. Pizza shops do it this way as you get more dough for your dough and more profit as you are basically selling air bubbles.

[JMD]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

JSA doesnt matter,its the child elements,housing,PIP etc.The woman over the road from me gets £640 a week in bennies,if the increase goes ahead that is already legislated for from Sept CPI numbers she will get a £60 a week increase.Take 18 houses in my close,3 retired coppers,2 bennie claims,so the 5 not working and being paid from taxpayers are the ones with RPI/CPI increasing earnings.

Hours worked in the economy are also falling,more workers doing less hours,wonder why that is.Its incredible to think that all allowances are frozen as well.Unless the Tories are desperate to lose the next election?

Yes, freezing the tax allowances for 5 years, kinda proves government knew all along that inflation was coming.                                                                                                                                                                               DB please could you break down that £640/week benefit figure? Not disputing it, in fact I'd like to have example figures to hand for when I attempt to tell colleagues that benefit-claimants vs low-wage earners is still a massive problem. Too many think Cameron/Osbourne solved this issue back when they introduced their benefit cap of 23k (was it?).

[JMD]

16 hours ago, King Penda said:

Aldi don’t have them all the supermarket s take the food vouchers aready 

But food vouchers are a hard political sell (far to shaming), system needs to be something modern and sexy. Perhaps Didi Harding's track-and-trace could be repurposed?!

[reformed nice guy]

4 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, freezing the tax allowances for 5 years, kinda proves government knew all along that inflation was coming.                                                                                                                                                                               DB please could you break down that £640/week benefit figure? Not disputing it, in fact I'd like to have example figures to hand for when I attempt to tell colleagues that benefit-claimants vs low-wage earners is still a massive problem. Too many think Cameron/Osbourne solved this issue back when they introduced their benefit cap of 23k (was it?).

Play with this website:

https://www.entitledto.co.uk/

Try a single mother working 16 hours for minimum wage, 3 kids all with the low level care + mobility of disabilities (ADHD innit), no other sources of income. Use your local area for housing benefit, compare it to something you can rent on Gumtree.

I did something similar and it came out with £490/week benefits, £160/week earnings. Carers allowances would be more and didnt say how much. Also offers for free upgrade to central heating if currently electric and a whole range of other things.

I think DBs example is probably the average.

[King Penda]

9 minutes ago, JMD said:

But food vouchers are a hard political sell (far to shaming), system needs to be something modern and sexy. Perhaps Didi Harding's track-and-trace could be repurposed?!

The system

is aready in place I’ve got to download one myself all the supermarkets take them it’s on an app so it’s modern and sexy .

[King Penda]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, freezing the tax allowances for 5 years, kinda proves government knew all along that inflation was coming.                                                                                                                                                                               DB please could you break down that £640/week benefit figure? Not disputing it, in fact I'd like to have example figures to hand for when I attempt to tell colleagues that benefit-claimants vs low-wage earners is still a massive problem. Too many think Cameron/Osbourne solved this issue back when they introduced their benefit cap of 23k (was it?).

Just join this group if your on Facebook it’s a fantastic read look at this one her rents 2k 

[Pinkpanther]

With all the talk about oil/energy, It made me think about first episode of the second series  of "utopia". The Episode Starts in 1974. (The series is Dark, masterfully twisted with the best of british humour/filmography and sound).

I watched it about 8 years ago and although fiction, the whole series subtly changed my view of the world and politics.

Anyway here is a clip (hopefully set at 8:30), Carvel and Milner sum up the the issue with energy/population in less than a minute.

Edit - I meant to add that we are almost 50 years from when this fictional converstation took place.

[Bobthebuilder]

I saw something today that blew my mind in our benefits culture. Went to an house for sale to do a gas inspection for the person buying it. wont go into details, but this house had new replacement sash windows and a very expensive solar thermal storage hot water system. All this was done by government grants while the owner was on universal credit. The works were done 1 year ago, now he is selling it to downsize. This house is selling for over £800k.

[HousePriceMania]

Sits shaking head....