Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JohnnyB]

2 hours ago, Nomad said:

Productivity is a real issue, way too many bennies expecting/almost demanding inflation rises. Maybe get a job? I'm fed up subsidising their lifestyle. Also way too much support for this from the msm, i have lost count of the number of times there have been articles about people not affording meals, generally I don't believe them, they need to budget and cut their cloth accordingly. We have ended up in a culture where people feel entitled and not prepared to graft.

Govt needs to be strong and stand up to them, not convinced they will

My advanced scientific analysis when watching news clips of Brits claiming they can't afford food:

-if the mum is fat, it's a lie

-if the kids are fat, it's a lie

 

[RJT1979]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

It is incredible to think how perfectly aligned their business model was to profit from the disinflation, and how 180 degrees to that they are for inflation. They turned pretty much a whole golf course (Wavendon) near me into fulfillment centres, by the looks of it from the road. Only a year or two ago investing in land with potential for fulfillment centres was being touted as the new hotness.

A thing I read the other day on twitter was something along the lines of "what if the whole start-up and venture capital business model was just a disguised interest rate short?". I actually spent a good five minutes processing that; how many people have unwittingly just been shorting interest rates, while convincing themselves they were succeeding at something far more complex through skill? George Gammon said something similar around the same time on a youtube videa, real estate is just an interest rate play unless you have skills to value add.

The amazon  warehouse is not on Wavendon golf course. The housing estate is. Used to play the 9 hole that was closest to the a421

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Well less than inflation if they want a meaningful gap to fill with their intentions:  UBI, rationing, digital ids, CBDCs, etc.  Be interesting how Labour positions itself.  Could be the give away given they (polos) may all be in it together.

From the macro side iv been running the numbers roughly and if they increase with inflation i see us heading into currency collapse and inflation that guts society.Bennies and state assured pensions going up with 10% inflation while lots of workers get 3% and with the tax allowance frozen will push things over the edge.The government is in the biggest mess since WW2 here.Just today i saw 4 new arrivals getting their free shopping in Lidl,jabbering away on their phones in arabic,no doubt guiding their mates here.All consuming resources produced by a smaller and smaller band of workers.

They got the inflation they needed to avoid going broke,but only if they hold the line on increases.This winter will be interesting to say the least.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

From the macro side iv been running the numbers roughly and if they increase with inflation i see us heading into currency collapse and inflation that guts society.

What sort of time frame are we talking about here? Still ~2030?

[Bobthebuilder]

27 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

From the macro side iv been running the numbers roughly and if they increase with inflation i see us heading into currency collapse and inflation that guts society.Bennies and state assured pensions going up with 10% inflation while lots of workers get 3% and with the tax allowance frozen will push things over the edge.The government is in the biggest mess since WW2 here.Just today i saw 4 new arrivals getting their free shopping in Lidl,jabbering away on their phones in arabic,no doubt guiding their mates here.All consuming resources produced by a smaller and smaller band of workers.

They got the inflation they needed to avoid going broke,but only if they hold the line on increases.This winter will be interesting to say the least.

I think we need to prepare for this, seeing the same thing in my local Lidl. The council have just started building new houses on kids green playing areas, lots of terrace housing having the full refurb treatment, I am looking forward to see who moves into these places.

I for one am getting a bit sick of trying to out maneuver these cunts, starting to think I am wasting my time TBH.

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Nomad said:

Productivity is a real issue, way too many bennies expecting/almost demanding inflation rises. Maybe get a job? I'm fed up subsidising their lifestyle. Also way too much support for this from the msm, i have lost count of the number of times there have been articles about people not affording meals, generally I don't believe them, they need to budget and cut their cloth accordingly. We have ended up in a culture where people feel entitled and not prepared to graft.

Govt needs to be strong and stand up to them, not convinced they will

I think you are looking at that the wrong way. You aren't seeing who is behind it and why. If the corporate sector can encourage subsidies for those at the bottom, it means they can lift their prices for everyone. Then they can extract more money from those in the middle. You only have to look at how corporate pay has increased with minimum wage, then living wage, now they want more. The money that subsidises bennies flows to the top, those on bennies are no better off, it goes in price rises. The Tesco boss calling for a windfall tax on energy companies is a classic example, he doesn't give a shit about poor folk, he just wants to make sure they can keep paying price rises towards his £4.7m pay package. Now it looks like the energy firms are lobbying the IMF to get subsidies for folk to pay their energy bills, they don't give a shit about poor people, only price rises to keep their profits up.

All that matters is who is going to pay for next lot of subsidies. I think maybe a wealth tax, something to do with housing equity or pensions.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

 

I for one am getting a bit sick of trying to out maneuver these cunts, starting to think I am wasting my time TBH.

For what it's worth know exactly what you mean, I posted something similar a while back, I haven't experienced anything to make me change my mind.  I felt optimistic back in the early days of these threads too (Pre COVID, imagine that)

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

For what it's worth know exactly what you mean, I posted something similar a while back, I haven't experienced anything to make me change my mind.  I felt optimistic back in the early days of these threads too (Pre COVID, imagine that)

+1

[Democorruptcy]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

From the macro side iv been running the numbers roughly and if they increase with inflation i see us heading into currency collapse and inflation that guts society.Bennies and state assured pensions going up with 10% inflation while lots of workers get 3% and with the tax allowance frozen will push things over the edge.The government is in the biggest mess since WW2 here.Just today i saw 4 new arrivals getting their free shopping in Lidl,jabbering away on their phones in arabic,no doubt guiding their mates here.All consuming resources produced by a smaller and smaller band of workers.

They got the inflation they needed to avoid going broke,but only if they hold the line on increases.This winter will be interesting to say the least.

You talk as if they put bennies and pensions up with inflation last year. The triple lock on pensions didn't happen. Lots of bennies stayed the same or hardly moved. JSA up 30p (up to age 25) or 35p (age 25 or over). They know they don't have to increase things in the usual way now, which is why there's all this talk about subsidies instead.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-and-pension-rates-2021-to-2022/benefit-and-pension-rates-2021-to-2022

Those 4 new arrivals have increased GDP and tax revenue! They all have to eat, need clothing and a shelter. Hopefully they smoke.

Smaller band of workers? We have just hit an all time high employed. Some of the new arrivals last year have got jobs!

Rule Britannia!

 

[marceau]

30 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

All that matters is who is going to pay for next lot of subsidies. 

This is really the crux of it imo. But assuming they get away with the inflationary shakedown, they'll struggle to get much more. A lot of what they think can be taken will simply vanish when they try to squeeze, it isn't really there.

I don't think there's a hope in hell of them changing course though.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

company stores.  or, in this case, state backed stores, like in the USSR.  Everyone will have the right to a loaf of bread every day, and UBI credits for that loaf.

Only problem is, as the USSR found out.... people don't make the bread fast enough or good enough if there is no profit.

Is it time to repeat my Tahiti story of old?!  Mentioned recently and initially, gosh, must be a few years ago now.  And how much has "Nostradamus on a Bike" earned from this and others?  Feck all.  There's no money in political science based crystal ball gazing unless you've got a newsletter and shout a bit! 

[Harley]

10 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Warehouse space could be about to become very over supplied! Will any be converted to residential I wonder?

Time to cross off logistics as an ok sector in my Reit portfolio then.  That leaves mostly just the ill and elderly. 

[Harley]

8 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Exactly.

My typical rant: do billionaires get it? If not, its not universal.

Do disabled people get the same as a normal person?

Do you get the same amount in a small mining village as you would in central London, even for housing? If not its not basic.

If they retort "but you get housing, so its the same wherever you are". In that case, can I get a free house in the poshest part of London? Its therefore not universal or basic if they will spend £300/m in one place but £1300/m in another.

Would you get the same allocation for heating in the south east as the chilliest part of Wales or Scotland?

The only correct word in UBI is income.

Its just a fancy name for "more means tested benefits doled out by the government"

Oh dear, you need to learn the game!  Of course it's universal, to those deemed needing it!  That's the mirror, you're Alice, and you need to walk through it! 

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Time to cross off logistics as an ok sector in my Reit portfolio then.  That leaves mostly just the ill and elderly. 

They are supposedly starting a Bizillion Sq Metre logistics and warehousing facility on greenbelt near me in 2023, its not like the existing warehouses are busy or the Amazon one on the M62 is overwhelmed and there isn't another one going up 6 miles away on the old colliery site.

The developer is promising 'quality jobs' for 4000 people on 28-32K for local people even though everyone knows they will mostly be recruited from EErs and nobody on those wages can buy a home nearby.

I can't see any need for the distribution of 'more stuff', they are obviously not up to speed with Klaus Schwabs plans.

It is just a property developers race and these particular ones are more like local gangsters than city types.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I talk to people at work who lived under Ceausescu and Communism. They 100% think Communism is terrible and don't want anything to do with it at all.

Use the UBI to buy gold / silver or stocks?

Ah but that's the plan's beauty.  Clearly we can't let that happen.  It's not like we're reckless or imprudent.  No, we'll give UBI in some form of programmable money with a nice name, picture, music, ad, and glowing msm articles.  CBDCs are for conspiracy nutters.  I mean, what a silly name!

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

They are supposedly starting a Bizillion Sq Metre logistics and warehousing facility on greenbelt near me in 2023, its not like the existing warehouses are busy or the Amazon one on the M62 is overwhelmed and there isn't another one going up 6 miles away on the old colliery site.

The developer is promising 'quality jobs' for 4000 people on 28-32K for local people even though everyone knows they will mostly be recruited from EErs and nobody on those wages can buy a home nearby.

I can't see any need for the distribution of 'more stuff', they are obviously not up to speed with Klaus Schwabs plans.

It is just a property developers race and these particular ones are more like local gangsters than city types.

Fields are just warehouses waiting to be born  Who needs 'em?

[Harley]

8 hours ago, Pip321 said:

I don’t disagree. Indeed I would encourage reporting of subletting if it is stealing my taxes. 

But at what stage do you stop referring to a specific previous government? The last three governments since must have some accountability to those who have been in power since or do you think Browns influence was as is so massive that no one was able to can change it?

Whenever Brown/Blair are specifically named it sounds like is an apology for the current governments since ie the last 12 years their hands were tied. If it’s always the other guys fault what’s the point of changing the leader. 

Biden now blaming Trump.…Trump blames Obama…..he blames Bush.

So I am not pro Brown but rather think for the past 30 years we have a mush of liberalism and political self interest. I wouldn’t pin my mast on anyone’s colours nor specifically blame a person because it alleviates some blame from others. They are all shite and corrupt. 

My bet is benefits go up with inflation and ‘people’ blame Blair/Brown/Putin/Biden/Thatcher/Simon Cowell….oh, I hope I am wrong. 

 

Names and games.  It really is imperative folk move on and stop playing the tired old game they're given.

[Loki]

Just seen this, made me laugh

 

[Harley]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Excellent post, that.

Yes.  We live in an paper delusional world beyond which fires burn.  The paper has decided a pure paper world can exist if there is only paper and so is on a burning mission to make it so! 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I think we need to prepare for this, seeing the same thing in my local Lidl. The council have just started building new houses on kids green playing areas, lots of terrace housing having the full refurb treatment, I am looking forward to see who moves into these places.

I for one am getting a bit sick of trying to out maneuver these cunts, starting to think I am wasting my time TBH.

That pisses me off. Council housing built in the 60s and 70s with standards on space, including green space. All ripped up to cram more housing in. None of the residents want this.

[Chewing Grass]

The UK is Venezula without the warm weather.

[Loki]

Just now, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That pisses me off. Council housing built in the 60s and 70s with standards on space, including green space. All ripped up to cram people in. None of the residents want this.

Excellent buildings too.  Puts the crap they throw up now to shame.  I do wonder how the stars aligned for a government social housing project to be done well

[Harley]

5 hours ago, snaga said:

you know these stories are BS when people claim to need to choose between eating and heating .... in MAY

Oh dear, another one on the wrong side of the mirror.  I do worry for some of you.  Please come in.  Then you will understand.  People consume media (Netflix, Sky, etc) and all sorts of other things.  To eat is to consume.  So yes, it's between heating and (a lot of) eating. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

From the macro side iv been running the numbers roughly and if they increase with inflation i see us heading into currency collapse and inflation that guts society.Bennies and state assured pensions going up with 10% inflation while lots of workers get 3% and with the tax allowance frozen will push things over the edge.The government is in the biggest mess since WW2 here.Just today i saw 4 new arrivals getting their free shopping in Lidl,jabbering away on their phones in arabic,no doubt guiding their mates here.All consuming resources produced by a smaller and smaller band of workers.

They got the inflation they needed to avoid going broke,but only if they hold the line on increases.This winter will be interesting to say the least.

Let's be totally clear.  IMO "They" will take your wealth when they need to.  Doing that is merely one stop on a long path for them, wherever it ends.

[Loki]

Just now, Harley said:

Let's be totally clear.  

That you Tony?