Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[WICAO]

I've now been gone from the UK a little under 2 years and today it really does seem that the UK is fast turning into a 3rd world shithole, literally.  Just today:

- Electricity/Gas prices everywhere as per this thread

- The French complaining about UK turds reaching the French coast in excessive quantities

- The realisation that GBP has actually now lost 7% of it's value against AUD in under 2 years

For those on the ground has it really degraded so quickly?

[Plan-b]

37 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

I got 16200 working for secret branch of govt. Shit money. Was 22 years ago

 

30 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Was just scientific research 

What like Bats and stuff?  

[dnb24]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Gone down a little in my estimation with such a retarded solution but then maybe he sees no other option but he should make it a little clearer as to the problems doing what he suggests.

 

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

All good up until his suggested solution where he goes full tard.

In defence of Gromen- he has been asked about a solution before (iirc) and said a similar thing but did extrapolate and state it was a horrendous solution- but he said what else could be done- who wants to choose to go back to caveman times.

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Support for the German Greens is through the roof since Russian invasion. All-time high.

 

Germany isn't a country, it's a death cult.

WTF happened to the Germans? They used to be such bastions of practicality and common sense. Or was that just a mirage? Maybe, cheap energy masks national lunacy.

[WICAO]

Just now, WICAO said:

I've now been gone from the UK a little under 2 years and today it really does seem that the UK is fast turning into a 3rd world shithole, literally.  Just today:

- Electricity/Gas prices everywhere as per this thread

- The French complaining about UK turds reaching the French coast in excessive quantities

- The realisation that GBP has actually now lost 7% of it's value against AUD in under 2 years

For those on the ground has it really degraded so quickly?

I know it's poor form to quote yourself but I've just seen £1 now buys only USD1.182.  The average UK worker really is getting taken for a ride.

[marceau]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

As always with these people none of them really talk in any detail as to how to protect yourselves, all vague shit like buy gold etc. I'd like to see somebody do some real analysis into what will happen to my BP shares in the event of hyper-inflation / a new currency. There must be plenty of examples in history but nobody ever talks about the things we all want to know.

The only record I know of with any detail is contained in 'When Money Dies'. What becomes clear from that is that there is more to consider under these circumstances than simple economics. You can play the numbers exactly right and still come a cropper because of politics.

I say this over and over - the result of Weimar was that pretty much everybody got fucked eventually. The laws and economic rules changed rapidly when people started starving, and even once the situation stabilised, they kept changing for decades afterwards. Not many of the ever-so-clever profiteers came out of the following 30 years unscathed, but then, neither did most of those who did nothing wrong. Your best 'protection' would have been to leave early and not come back.

[Plan-b]

5 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I know it's poor form to quote yourself but I've just seen £1 now buys only USD1.182.  The average UK worker really is getting taken for a ride.

Yep and its a good job they don't make everything we need to buy else we'd be fooked

[WICAO]

9 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yep and its a good job they don't make everything we need to buy else we'd be fooked

The poor management of the UK is literally causing the inflation.  The question then becomes at what point will the Politicians and BoE wake up.

[afly]

1 minute ago, WICAO said:

The poor management of the UK is literally causing the inflation.  The question then becomes at what point will the Politicians and BoE wake up.

They're not asleep. They are retards

[JMD]

3 hours ago, marceau said:

IIRC key to the govt win on RPI/CPI switch was that they were switching over to using that measure for their own models as well as for indexation. The judgement would have been less likely to go their way if they'd cooked up a new measure for the express purpose of screwing over pensioners - if that'd been the case they'd have needed an act of parliament to get it through. 

Same will go for 'fiddling' CPI. They just aren't going to do it, it's one of the key metrics for their economic modelling, which is already creaking because of inaccuracies. Putting in whacky numbers causes the govt just as much harm as it causes for those dependant on indexation. Garbage in, garbage out - and they won't want more garbage at this point.

Pensions not in payment have been getting the screw steadily tightened for at least a decade, those that don't yet have indexation caps will soon see them I'm sure. Pensions in payment however, is more difficult - and to be honest I'm not sure how big a proportion they actually represent. Anyone on here have the figures?

Talking of inflation models. I recall David Collum - (controversial Cornell University professor) who frequently appears on financial (and conspiracy) podcasts - anyway I remember him saying some while back now, that Canadian academics were developing a new 'inflation model' that would soon be adopted by governments in order to further manipulate the reality of inflation. He said he'd provide more info. as/when he learnt more about it.

I don't really listen to Collum, so just mentioning this in case others know more about the inflation model (conspiracy?) topic Collum was referring to?

 

Edit to add, just found this new podcast from Dave Collum, let's see how far down the rabbit hole he is nowadays! Should be entertaining!! 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cecSD8lXcQ8

[janch]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I can't see that, but Russia and Iran have by far the largest share of the worlds natural gas (and Qatar). 

Here's an article about it:

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Iran-And-Russia-Move-To-Create-A-Global-Natural-Gas-Cartel.html

[Yadda yadda yadda]

18 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I've now been gone from the UK a little under 2 years and today it really does seem that the UK is fast turning into a 3rd world shithole, literally.  Just today:

- Electricity/Gas prices everywhere as per this thread

- The French complaining about UK turds reaching the French coast in excessive quantities

- The realisation that GBP has actually now lost 7% of it's value against AUD in under 2 years

For those on the ground has it really degraded so quickly?

We've actually had a great summer.

Electricity and gas doesn't really impact until October. There have been increases for people not fixed but probably £10 per week extra. Not a big impact, yet...

Turds reaching France. Hadn't heard about that. I'll start caring about that when they stop boats crossing the Channel 

Sterling could really stuff things up. Impact not really felt yet. Not a lot of change v the Euro.

Things haven't gone to shit yet. They will soon but we'll try and float it to France 

[Boon]

20 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I know it's poor form to quote yourself but I've just seen £1 now buys only USD1.182.  The average UK worker really is getting taken for a ride.

Think most currencies have shown big divergences especially against USD.

Doesn't seem that long ago that AUD/USD was at parity.

I got friends and relatives in Aus and NZ.... I do think they will be immune from asset price crush, but there is nicer weather and less freeloading cunts overall.

[Starsend]

16 minutes ago, marceau said:

The only record I know of with any detail is contained in 'When Money Dies'. What becomes clear from that is that there is more to consider under these circumstances than simple economics. You can play the numbers exactly right and still come a cropper because of politics.

I say this over and over - the result of Weimar was that pretty much everybody got fucked eventually. The laws and economic rules changed rapidly when people started starving, and even once the situation stabilised, they kept changing for decades afterwards. Not many of the ever-so-clever profiteers came out of the following 30 years unscathed, but then, neither did most of those who did nothing wrong. Your best 'protection' would have been to leave early and not come back.

I've got that book as a pdf, must get around to reading it properly.

Completely agree with what you say,  everybody loses to some extent when it goes tits up completely. If it gets that bad then it's pretty clear that the only thing that will retain its value AND perhaps even more importantly, you can prevent the theft of (either directly or indirectly), is physical gold and silver.

At the moment the juries out, we all suspect it could go that way but we hope it doesn't. If I get to the point where I have a very high conviction that it is going Weimar then I will sell everything and convert into physical metals and non-perishable goods. Until that point it's just trying to keep up with high inflation for year after year most likely.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

I was earning high £19000 when I first started work in a piss easy public sector job getting on for 20 years ago

I spent a Summer circa 20 years ago at my old school initially collating school reports (because the Unions complained teachers shouldn’t be doing it) and then working on the reception desk. £8.50 an hour, which apparently was the lowest paid grade at the council at the time. I spent most of my time drinking tea and having a chat with my co-workers. Great job that.

 

[WICAO]

26 minutes ago, marceau said:

The only record I know of with any detail is contained in 'When Money Dies'. What becomes clear from that is that there is more to consider under these circumstances than simple economics. You can play the numbers exactly right and still come a cropper because of politics.

I say this over and over - the result of Weimar was that pretty much everybody got fucked eventually. The laws and economic rules changed rapidly when people started starving, and even once the situation stabilised, they kept changing for decades afterwards. Not many of the ever-so-clever profiteers came out of the following 30 years unscathed, but then, neither did most of those who did nothing wrong. Your best 'protection' would have been to leave early and not come back.

It's one of the reasons I spread my wealth around the world.  Sure I then never back the winners but at the same time I also don't back the losers.  I only lose it all if the whole world goes down...

[Lightly Toasted]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

One share buys 4.5 loaves of Lidl seeded bread.One would buy 4.5 loaves of Lidl seeded bread.Assets have little to fear from a new currency apart from the demand destruction as cash savings are destroyed.You can have a new currency though without changing it.We are getting one now in the UK its called sterling its worth half as much as the last one that was called sterling.The value of it is two sides.How many there are,how many does someone want to sell you an asset,service,goods or commodity.

In full-on hyperinflation, the utility/viability of monetary transactions (such as receiving and spending BP dividends plus all of BP's internal/external transactions) becomes moot. Business activity would collapse without an alternative token -- c.f. dollarisation.

Perhaps the state keeps printing what's needed to meet its obligations on paper, while the real economy adopts some hard currency/token. Would be a tax nightmare, but if tax inspectors are paid with state money (and how could they not be?) they'll be too busy rushing around the shops with wheelbarrows to get in anyone's way 

In the past, emerging states have partitioned their money into hard/soft versions as a matter of policy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_certificate

 

[marceau]

15 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I've got that book as a pdf, must get around to reading it properly.

Completely agree with what you say,  everybody loses to some extent when it goes tits up completely. If it gets that bad then it's pretty clear that the only thing that will retain its value AND perhaps even more importantly, you can prevent the theft of (either directly or indirectly), is physical gold and silver.

At the moment the juries out, we all suspect it could go that way but we hope it doesn't. If I get to the point where I have a very high conviction that it is going Weimar then I will sell everything and convert into physical metals and non-perishable goods. Until that point it's just trying to keep up with high inflation for year after year most likely.

Those who played the gold and silver game during weimar just painted a giant target on their backs. It's more of a liability if you don't have the muscle or connections to protect it. If you're eating while everyone else is starving expect to be public enemy #1.

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How can the public think that not doing something has pushed prices up? I could see that if the narrative was peak oil (and gas ) but it isn't.

I'm sure they do think that but it is so dumb.

Yes agreed, very dumb. I think academics would say the cause is linear thinking vs critical thinking...           But in terms of pure manipulation, it's down to 14 years of (dumbing-down) state schooling and the previous 30 years of (increasingly dumb and  degenerate) BBC propaganda!

[DoINeedOne]

interesting chat 

 

 

[Majorpain]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/25/big-energy-firms-refuse-to-supply-small-uk-businesses-bankruptcy-fears-contracts

This is new, those evil energy companies are refusing to quote for some small businesses because they don't think they will get paid come winter!  Pubs and beauty salons not essential expenditure for consumers it seems.

Quote

Gemma Holt, the owner of Lily’s beauty salon in Whitchurch, Shropshire, said she had found it almost impossible to renew her energy contract.

“We thought we had found a new energy supplier, but the first one we tried wouldn’t take us on because we are a hair and beauty business, and because of the energy usage, with the washing machine and tumble dryer going all the time.”

 

[Starsend]

8 minutes ago, marceau said:

Those who played the gold and silver game during weimar just painted a giant target on their backs. It's more of a liability if you don't have the muscle or connections to protect it. If you're eating while everyone else is starving expect to be public enemy #1.

 

You just have to be smart about it. You bury your precious metals in the woods somewhere and come back and get it twenty years later when it's safe to do so. In the meantime you muddle through same as everybody else, maybe using the odd silver coin to keep the wolf from the door if it's safe to do so and isn't going to draw attention.

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, WICAO said:

The poor management of the UK is literally causing the inflation.  The question then becomes at what point will the Politicians and BoE wake up.

When they dont have inflation linked pensions i suspect.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, marceau said:

Those who played the gold and silver game during weimar and just painted a giant target on their backs. It's more of a liability if you don't have the muscle or connections to protect it. If you're eating while everyone else is starving expect to be public enemy #1.

 

Yes. Keeping a low profile, if the worst happens, will be essential. Make sure you're seen to be struggling like everyone else. Don't buy lots of food in one shop.

I know some see gold and silver being used as day-to-day currency. I believe this happens in Venezuela. I think you will be able to exchange for cash but it would take a complete collapse where violence ruled for it to take that role here.

I wouldn't fancy being a foreigner anywhere. Either you're a rich target or you're taking their resources. Unless you're very well embedded it isn't a good position.

[Noallegiance]

55 minutes ago, WICAO said:

 

- The French complaining about UK turds reaching the French coast in excessive quantities

It's the new global barter exchange. They send us turds, so......