Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[feed]

https://www.teletrader.com/opec-president-backs-saudi-plan-to-cut-oil-output/news/details/58498887

OPEC president backs Saudi plan to cut oil output

OPEC's Rotating President and Republic of Congo Oil Minister Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua declared to The Wall Street Journal that the Saudi proposal on cutting oil production was in line with his "views and objectives," the newspaper said Thursday.

Earlier this week, it became known that Saudi Arabia and some of its oil-producing allies had suggested cutting crude oil production. This move displeased the US, which saw the Kingdom as a critical ally to cool down the market.

Sanctions on Russian oil imposed due to the invasion of Ukraine have created a supply shortage. However, on the other hand, an agreement between the US and Iran on the reactivation of the nuclear deal could bring Iranian oil back to the market.

[RJT1979]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

It might have been 16000 actually  it was a long time ago

I got 16200 working for secret branch of govt. Shit money. Was 22 years ago

[Errol]

4 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

I got 16200 working for secret branch of govt. Shit money. Was 22 years ago

What 00 number were you?

[RJT1979]

1 minute ago, Errol said:

What 00 number were you?

Was just scientific research 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

49 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The worrying thing for the Dems is that he sounds like a working class former Dem voter.

 

Edit to add,my old army mate I saw yesterday was saying more and more people he knows jsut feel totally alienated from the polticial elite in Westminster.Lot of anger ,like th guy in the video.Did the right thing ,got screwed.I thinkw hen the politcal revolution comes in the UK,it will be faster than sya Italy,where the Right has been rising for years.

Our electoral system allows the Tories and Lab to kid themselves into thinking 70% of the electorate vote for them because they like them rather than voting to keep the other tribe out.

 

The system also relies on 30% never bothering to vote because they think it is pointless. Give them a genuine choice and they will take it.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Crikey, I didn't realise there were so many peasants in this country, £20,000 a year wtf! All they'd get out of me for that would be a loud fart on my office chair then I'd announce I'm done for the day. 

A good chunk of that is part time work. Some of it is job share with two people picking up £25k each for two days per week.

[No One]

8 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Was just scientific research 

Double-o zero by the size of his paychque it seems

[honkydonkey]

2 minutes ago, No One said:

Double-o zero by the size of his paychque it seems

He wasn't a number, fools. 

He was a letter.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

It's not off topic this whole situation as far back as you want to go is basically moral hazard

THE single greatest thread on the internet, bar none.

[Big Boy]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Yep, surprise, surprise it was fibreglass!

At the time of Gretta's transatlantic trip the organisation providing the boat did a Q&A. Question 6 says it was made from 'part' recycled fibreglass but also utilised 'sustainable' processes!... But given this was a racing yacht I dought any of that played any real important part in it's design and manufacture.

https://www.borisherrmannracing.com/news/frequently-asked-questions-on-the-transat-with-greta-thunberg/

Carbon / Nomex sandwich according to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gitana_16

I.e. made from oil.

Also:

In August 2019 the Malizia II took Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg across the North Atlantic Ocean from Plymouth to New York City without producing any carbon dioxide during the voyage, however, France 24 reported that several crew flew to New York to sail the yacht back to Europe.

[WICAO]

I've now been gone from the UK a little under 2 years and today it really does seem that the UK is fast turning into a 3rd world shithole, literally.  Just today:

- Electricity/Gas prices everywhere as per this thread

- The French complaining about UK turds reaching the French coast in excessive quantities

- The realisation that GBP has actually now lost 7% of it's value against AUD in under 2 years

For those on the ground has it really degraded so quickly?

[Plan-b]

37 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

I got 16200 working for secret branch of govt. Shit money. Was 22 years ago

 

30 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Was just scientific research 

What like Bats and stuff?  

[dnb24]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Gone down a little in my estimation with such a retarded solution but then maybe he sees no other option but he should make it a little clearer as to the problems doing what he suggests.

 

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

All good up until his suggested solution where he goes full tard.

In defence of Gromen- he has been asked about a solution before (iirc) and said a similar thing but did extrapolate and state it was a horrendous solution- but he said what else could be done- who wants to choose to go back to caveman times.

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Support for the German Greens is through the roof since Russian invasion. All-time high.

 

Germany isn't a country, it's a death cult.

WTF happened to the Germans? They used to be such bastions of practicality and common sense. Or was that just a mirage? Maybe, cheap energy masks national lunacy.

[WICAO]

Just now, WICAO said:

I've now been gone from the UK a little under 2 years and today it really does seem that the UK is fast turning into a 3rd world shithole, literally.  Just today:

- Electricity/Gas prices everywhere as per this thread

- The French complaining about UK turds reaching the French coast in excessive quantities

- The realisation that GBP has actually now lost 7% of it's value against AUD in under 2 years

For those on the ground has it really degraded so quickly?

I know it's poor form to quote yourself but I've just seen £1 now buys only USD1.182.  The average UK worker really is getting taken for a ride.

[marceau]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

As always with these people none of them really talk in any detail as to how to protect yourselves, all vague shit like buy gold etc. I'd like to see somebody do some real analysis into what will happen to my BP shares in the event of hyper-inflation / a new currency. There must be plenty of examples in history but nobody ever talks about the things we all want to know.

The only record I know of with any detail is contained in 'When Money Dies'. What becomes clear from that is that there is more to consider under these circumstances than simple economics. You can play the numbers exactly right and still come a cropper because of politics.

I say this over and over - the result of Weimar was that pretty much everybody got fucked eventually. The laws and economic rules changed rapidly when people started starving, and even once the situation stabilised, they kept changing for decades afterwards. Not many of the ever-so-clever profiteers came out of the following 30 years unscathed, but then, neither did most of those who did nothing wrong. Your best 'protection' would have been to leave early and not come back.

[Plan-b]

5 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I know it's poor form to quote yourself but I've just seen £1 now buys only USD1.182.  The average UK worker really is getting taken for a ride.

Yep and its a good job they don't make everything we need to buy else we'd be fooked

[WICAO]

9 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yep and its a good job they don't make everything we need to buy else we'd be fooked

The poor management of the UK is literally causing the inflation.  The question then becomes at what point will the Politicians and BoE wake up.

[afly]

1 minute ago, WICAO said:

The poor management of the UK is literally causing the inflation.  The question then becomes at what point will the Politicians and BoE wake up.

They're not asleep. They are retards

[JMD]

3 hours ago, marceau said:

IIRC key to the govt win on RPI/CPI switch was that they were switching over to using that measure for their own models as well as for indexation. The judgement would have been less likely to go their way if they'd cooked up a new measure for the express purpose of screwing over pensioners - if that'd been the case they'd have needed an act of parliament to get it through. 

Same will go for 'fiddling' CPI. They just aren't going to do it, it's one of the key metrics for their economic modelling, which is already creaking because of inaccuracies. Putting in whacky numbers causes the govt just as much harm as it causes for those dependant on indexation. Garbage in, garbage out - and they won't want more garbage at this point.

Pensions not in payment have been getting the screw steadily tightened for at least a decade, those that don't yet have indexation caps will soon see them I'm sure. Pensions in payment however, is more difficult - and to be honest I'm not sure how big a proportion they actually represent. Anyone on here have the figures?

Talking of inflation models. I recall David Collum - (controversial Cornell University professor) who frequently appears on financial (and conspiracy) podcasts - anyway I remember him saying some while back now, that Canadian academics were developing a new 'inflation model' that would soon be adopted by governments in order to further manipulate the reality of inflation. He said he'd provide more info. as/when he learnt more about it.

I don't really listen to Collum, so just mentioning this in case others know more about the inflation model (conspiracy?) topic Collum was referring to?

 

Edit to add, just found this new podcast from Dave Collum, let's see how far down the rabbit hole he is nowadays! Should be entertaining!! 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cecSD8lXcQ8

[janch]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I can't see that, but Russia and Iran have by far the largest share of the worlds natural gas (and Qatar). 

Here's an article about it:

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Iran-And-Russia-Move-To-Create-A-Global-Natural-Gas-Cartel.html

[Yadda yadda yadda]

18 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I've now been gone from the UK a little under 2 years and today it really does seem that the UK is fast turning into a 3rd world shithole, literally.  Just today:

- Electricity/Gas prices everywhere as per this thread

- The French complaining about UK turds reaching the French coast in excessive quantities

- The realisation that GBP has actually now lost 7% of it's value against AUD in under 2 years

For those on the ground has it really degraded so quickly?

We've actually had a great summer.

Electricity and gas doesn't really impact until October. There have been increases for people not fixed but probably £10 per week extra. Not a big impact, yet...

Turds reaching France. Hadn't heard about that. I'll start caring about that when they stop boats crossing the Channel 

Sterling could really stuff things up. Impact not really felt yet. Not a lot of change v the Euro.

Things haven't gone to shit yet. They will soon but we'll try and float it to France 

[Boon]

20 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I know it's poor form to quote yourself but I've just seen £1 now buys only USD1.182.  The average UK worker really is getting taken for a ride.

Think most currencies have shown big divergences especially against USD.

Doesn't seem that long ago that AUD/USD was at parity.

I got friends and relatives in Aus and NZ.... I do think they will be immune from asset price crush, but there is nicer weather and less freeloading cunts overall.

[Starsend]

16 minutes ago, marceau said:

The only record I know of with any detail is contained in 'When Money Dies'. What becomes clear from that is that there is more to consider under these circumstances than simple economics. You can play the numbers exactly right and still come a cropper because of politics.

I say this over and over - the result of Weimar was that pretty much everybody got fucked eventually. The laws and economic rules changed rapidly when people started starving, and even once the situation stabilised, they kept changing for decades afterwards. Not many of the ever-so-clever profiteers came out of the following 30 years unscathed, but then, neither did most of those who did nothing wrong. Your best 'protection' would have been to leave early and not come back.

I've got that book as a pdf, must get around to reading it properly.

Completely agree with what you say,  everybody loses to some extent when it goes tits up completely. If it gets that bad then it's pretty clear that the only thing that will retain its value AND perhaps even more importantly, you can prevent the theft of (either directly or indirectly), is physical gold and silver.

At the moment the juries out, we all suspect it could go that way but we hope it doesn't. If I get to the point where I have a very high conviction that it is going Weimar then I will sell everything and convert into physical metals and non-perishable goods. Until that point it's just trying to keep up with high inflation for year after year most likely.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

I was earning high £19000 when I first started work in a piss easy public sector job getting on for 20 years ago

I spent a Summer circa 20 years ago at my old school initially collating school reports (because the Unions complained teachers shouldn’t be doing it) and then working on the reception desk. £8.50 an hour, which apparently was the lowest paid grade at the council at the time. I spent most of my time drinking tea and having a chat with my co-workers. Great job that.