Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Option5]

12 minutes ago, King Penda said:

So what happens if you tell them your moving and to stop ? But don’t actually move ?

You say you're leaving the country and someone called Mrs O5 will be moving in and will choose her own supplier .

Most utilities can't cope with someone moving overseas , unless it's fixed term, they just give up.

[King Penda]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Talk about prophetic. 😂

 

Great film btw, if anyone hasn't seen it.

I’ve got it some good films in that era 

[SpectrumFX]

12 minutes ago, King Penda said:

I’ve got it some good films in that era 

I watched 3 days of the condor the other night. Cracking film. They don't make them like that anymore.

 

[Noallegiance]

Just now, SpectrumFX said:

I watched 3 days of the condor the other night. Cracking film. They don't make them look that anymore.

 

It's a cracker. The speech at thr end by the FBI dude is sobering.

The Paralax View with Dustin Hoffman is also a good oldie.

[Axeman123]

Some people on here seem to have seen/watched a different Luke Gromen thing to me, based on their reactions to it!

An interesting part IMO, was where he laid out the 3 choices for Europe as he saw it.

1) Pay Putin in Euros

2) Tell the US it will have to sell dollars and buy Euros to releive EU inflation, or

3) Tell the US it will have to sell a lot more LNG to the EU and suffer domestic inflation as a result.

I would rebut these as follows:

1) is effectively already happening, although it is subject to Putin even wanting to sell them the gas.

2) might maybe help, but ultimately no ammount of currency strength will materialise LNG as if by magic and again Putin has to want to supply it.

3) overlooks the simple impossibility of dramatically increasing LNG supply to the extent needed.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

So ... the great UK employment miracle- see various threads here, on TCs, UCs, based on hordes of single mums working PT in hair n nail salons, inc EU migrants in pizza n burger eateries, with huge tax payer subs, is about to blow up.

Good.

On cue -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11142035/Restaurants-pubs-cafes-shops-small-businesses-forced-close-energy-bills-bite.html

Britain starts to turn out the lights: Restaurants, pubs, butchers, cafes and shops are among small businesses forced to close as soaring energy bills begin to bite

Fears for future of holiday let business in Somerset

Abby McKellar, 46, is considering closing the holiday let business she runs with her husband Matt, 50, over winter in order to stay afloat.

Little Norton Mill, which comprises four self-catering cottages and four apartments in rural Somerset, relies solely on electricity.

In January, their energy bills increased by 70 per cent from £10,000 to £17,000 a year. 

And the couple fear they could spiral further when their fixed deal ends at the beginning of next year.

Abby says: 'To soak up the electricity cost alone, we would have had to increase our prices by 10 per cent this year — and that does not even include all the other costs that are going up.

'If you raise those prices, people will just stop coming. It's a perfect storm.'

 

 

In Droxford, Hampshire, pub landlord Shekhar Nailwal, 45, said he was left 'on his knees' with rocketing fuel, food and alcohol bills. It led to him and his wife, Alex, 39, to take the 'heartbreakingly sad' decision to close their much-loved The White Horse after eight years.

The quaint village pub was well-loved in its local community for its unusual Indian menu served alongside traditional lagers and cosy inn decor, with a sprawling terrace garden.

The closure means Mr and Mrs Nailwal may now have to move their two sons Rudra, 10, and Prem, 14, away from the village they have called home for the best part of a decade. 

Is the beer halal?

No more fancy bollocks fuckwits, turning pubs into eateries.

3 beets. Spit. Sawdust. Crisps.

 

[Stuey]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

On cue -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11142035/Restaurants-pubs-cafes-shops-small-businesses-forced-close-energy-bills-bite.html

Britain starts to turn out the lights: Restaurants, pubs, butchers, cafes and shops are among small businesses forced to close as soaring energy bills begin to bite

Fears for future of holiday let business in Somerset

Abby McKellar, 46, is considering closing the holiday let business she runs with her husband Matt, 50, over winter in order to stay afloat.

Little Norton Mill, which comprises four self-catering cottages and four apartments in rural Somerset, relies solely on electricity.

In January, their energy bills increased by 70 per cent from £10,000 to £17,000 a year. 

And the couple fear they could spiral further when their fixed deal ends at the beginning of next year.

Abby says: 'To soak up the electricity cost alone, we would have had to increase our prices by 10 per cent this year — and that does not even include all the other costs that are going up.

'If you raise those prices, people will just stop coming. It's a perfect storm.'

 

 

In Droxford, Hampshire, pub landlord Shekhar Nailwal, 45, said he was left 'on his knees' with rocketing fuel, food and alcohol bills. It led to him and his wife, Alex, 39, to take the 'heartbreakingly sad' decision to close their much-loved The White Horse after eight years.

The quaint village pub was well-loved in its local community for its unusual Indian menu served alongside traditional lagers and cosy inn decor, with a sprawling terrace garden.

The closure means Mr and Mrs Nailwal may now have to move their two sons Rudra, 10, and Prem, 14, away from the village they have called home for the best part of a decade. 

Is the beer halal?

No more fancy bollocks fuckwits, turning pubs into eateries.

3 beets. Spit. Sawdust. Crisps.

 

5th September. 

This weekend will be the last hurrah, the one after will show how the rest of the year is going to be. 

[Axeman123]

Macro-economic indicator of used enthusiast cars losing value:

A long way still to go, based on the white Merc with gullwing doors going 115K to 200k, and now down to ~160k. Anyone buying one at 200k to speculate using a HELOC is in a world of hurt I imagine.

(Probably not worth watching just for that though, but interesting to see normies catching up to thread themes)

[Lightly Toasted]

47 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I watched 3 days of the condor the other night. Cracking film. They don't make them like that anymore.

 

"When I was a kid we used to go to the cinema on Saturdays to see a masterpiece, except back then we called them movies."

 

[Innkeeper]

33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

On cue -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11142035/Restaurants-pubs-cafes-shops-small-businesses-forced-close-energy-bills-bite.html

 

Fears for future of holiday let business in Somerset

Abby McKellar, 46, is considering closing the holiday let business she runs with her husband Matt, 50, over winter in order to stay afloat.

Little Norton Mill, which comprises four self-catering cottages and four apartments in rural Somerset, relies solely on electricity.

In January, their energy bills increased by 70 per cent from £10,000 to £17,000 a year. 

And the couple fear they could spiral further when their fixed deal ends at the beginning of next year.

Abby says: 'To soak up the electricity cost alone, we would have had to increase our prices by 10 per cent this year — and that does not even include all the other costs that are going up.

'If you raise those prices, people will just stop coming. It's a perfect storm.'

 

 

My guess is that visitor numbers are well down this year already.  Cornwall aside, the West Country has had a mass of holiday homes appearing in the last two years and from what I can see the number of visitors is well down from normal.  Massive excess of supply and demand shrinking.  

10% isn’t much of an increase considering holiday let prices rocketed about 50% during Covid.....

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

All i know is back in the day when we used to go to Amsterdam none of the lads liked a German hooker they were like sacks of potatoes and their chit chat boring.You could always tell the German blokes though Heavy metal crumpled t shirts.I spent 30 minutes with a Slovakian one who had about 8 Turks pestering her at the door she leaned over and said to me "your English" and dragged me in.She said she hated Turks and knew i was English because nice clothes and stylish  yeah i still left 30 guilders lighter.

State of England these days she'd not be able to tell. 

Some of us still have style but it is dying out.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

47 minutes ago, Stuey said:

5th September. 

This weekend will be the last hurrah, the one after will show how the rest of the year is going to be. 

I reckon November it turns to shit. Higher utilities bills land in October so little money left. What there is will go on Christmas.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

36 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Macro-economic indicator of used enthusiast cars losing value:

A long way still to go, based on the white Merc with gullwing doors going 115K to 200k, and now down to ~160k. Anyone buying one at 200k to speculate using a HELOC is in a world of hurt I imagine.

(Probably not worth watching just for that though, but interesting to see normies catching up to thread themes)

Anyone borrowing big money to speculate on cars or wine or art deserves to get fucked.

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I reckon November it turns to shit. Higher utilities bills land in October so little money left. What there is will go on Christmas.

The new energy "price cap" is published tomorrow...followed by letters arriving from suppliers Tuesday after people have spunked £500 over the Bank Hols on kebabs, fruit machines and brasses...

[ILikeCake]

33 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I reckon November it turns to shit. Higher utilities bills land in October so little money left. What there is will go on Christmas.

Just as the clocks change.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I reckon November it turns to shit. Higher utilities bills land in October so little money left. What there is will go on Christmas.

I never do short term, but come Xmas I wouldn’t be invested in Turkey producers (2 sisters own Bernard Mathew’s IIRC) and the likes of wetherspoons and Toby Carvery (whilst people still have the money to eat out) could see a boost 

How much is cooking a Turkey for 5 hours in peak hours going to cost when energy is in the forefront of everyone’s minds? (I do mine overnight)

[Axeman123]

42 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I never do short and longs, but come Xmas short Turkey producers (2 sisters own Bernard Mathew’s IIRC) and long  wetherspoons and Toby Carvery (whilst people still have the money to eat out) 

How much is cooking a Turkey for 5 hours in peak hours going to cost when energy is in the forefront of everyone’s minds? (I do mine overnight)

Surely the energy savings of bulk cooking in a catering setting are more than offset by margin/staff costs and the energy inefficiency of hospitality?

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Anyone borrowing big money to speculate on cars or wine or art deserves to get fucked.

You missed out housing.

(...swiss watches, campervans, lego, electric guitars)

[HousePriceMania]

The TUC just forced up the price of beans

 

https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2022/august/unite-secures-heinz-workers-pay-rise-worth-11/#:~:text=The deal is worth 11,for the local Unite reps.

 

Unite secures Heinz workers pay rise worth 11%

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, ILikeCake said:

Just as the clocks change.

Oh brilliant I will be able to dust off yet again my annual "Dyslexics worried about their cocks going black" joke.

Re-use, recycle, re-enjoy.

[Lightscribe]

53 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Surely the energy savings of bulk cooking in a catering setting are more than offset by margin/staff costs and the energy inefficiency of hospitality?

You missed out housing.

(...swiss watches, campervans, lego, electric guitars)

On a real level yes. I’m talking about a perceived level. Everyone will be passing the buck this year over which family members turn it is this year to save energy costs when the real shit hits and is actually felt by xmas.

(as regards to everything else I’ve already explained, housing down in the BK which was always my estimation from TOS, I’m mortgage free, classic cars sold, Lego sold, caravan stays, watch is for my daughter)

[BWW]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

I never do short term, but come Xmas I wouldn’t be invested in Turkey producers (2 sisters own Bernard Mathew’s IIRC) and the likes of wetherspoons and Toby Carvery (whilst people still have the money to eat out) could see a boost 

How much is cooking a Turkey for 5 hours in peak hours going to cost when energy is in the forefront of everyone’s minds? (I do mine overnight)

5hrs xmax 3 kwh x unit(kwh) rate will be know tomorrow probably sub50p.

iow less than 7.50 but probably nearer 4 quid or less than a pint.

rounding error in the context of dosh dpunked on shitmas.

which neatly demonstrates my earlier point that project fear of an unknown energy cost is more scary when you cant.wont.dont work out what the actual amount will be and whether its a problem.

media needs to fuck off with project fear.

[Noallegiance]

Fertilizer Crisis Deepens as Yara Joins Azoty in Idling More Ammonia Capacity (msn.com)

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, BWW said:

5hrs xmax 3 kwh x unit(kwh) rate will be know tomorrow probably sub50p.

iow less than 7.50 but probably nearer 4 quid or less than a pint.

rounding error in the context of dosh dpunked on shitmas.

which neatly demonstrates my earlier point that project fear of an unknown energy cost is more scary when you cant.wont.dont work out what the actual amount will be and whether its a problem.

media needs to fuck off with project fear.

The likelihood of the likes of the British public actually is working out costs?
Or the like of Martin Lewis screaming form the rooftops of how ‘Tiny Tim wont be comin ‘ome this Christmas’

[M S E Refugee]

Google to ‘inoculate’ Eastern Europeans against disinformation https://www.rt.com/news/561571-google-ukrainian-refugees-infodemic-experiment/

I take it most people who work for Google were born way after the Iron Curtain came down.

Maybe they don't realise that Communist disinformation is still fresh in the memory in Eastern and Central Europe, these Woke cunts are really fucking stupid.

[M S E Refugee]

We are definitely in the end game.

City tries to cancel use of the term ‘homeless’ https://www.rt.com/news/561570-los-angeles-cancels-term-homeless/