Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

58 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Blimey.

Brutal day in the markets.

Just sayin

Wait till tomorrow 😂😂😂

I know everyone's in it for the long run but biggest mistake I made last 2 years was not selling up Jan 2020

[AWW]

43 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wait till tomorrow 😂😂😂

I know everyone's in it for the long run but biggest mistake I made last 2 years was not selling up Jan 2020

I sold out of half of my oil positions earlier in the week when the markets were being rather generous. I sold out of the other half today because it seems that western govts are even more clueless than I thought. They'll need a scapegoat and they've chosen the oil companies. Some risks can be quantified and an informed decision made about how big to bet. The risk posed by the clowns operating the levers of power in ours and other countries can't.

Of course, the question now is what to do about sitting in cash that's losing 10+% purchasing power annually.

[Lightscribe]

Riddle me this Batman… 🦇 what chart is this?

40 days and 40 nights the rain poured down without any light… 🤡 

[sancho panza]

49 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wait till tomorrow 😂😂😂

I know everyone's in it for the long run but biggest mistake I made last 2 years was not selling up Jan 2020

We bought some Newcrest,Anglogold and Kinross this afternoon.Earlier in the day we bought some vodafone and some more BP.

I wouldn't buy tech but I think there's some value here

[BWW]

On 16/06/2022 at 22:03, Noallegiance said:

Is this why oilies dropped 6% today?

[JoeDavola]

If the cost of borrowing is on the up, and the cost of everything non-housing is on the up, ya know silly things like energy and food, you think that would but a dampener on house prices wouldn’t you?

I mean how the fuck can they still go up 10% a year in this kind of environment? How can they not drop?

But hey it’s the UK so they’ll rise no doubt.

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

If the cost of borrowing is on the up, and the cost of everything non-housing is on the up, ya know silly things like energy and food, you think that would but a dampener on house prices wouldn’t you?

I mean how the fuck can they still go up 10% a year in this kind of environment? How can they not drop?

But hey it’s the UK so they’ll rise no doubt.

Think they're making it up now 😂

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

Yep, ARK innovation fund down another 6% today.

5 years of growth...... gone!

[reformed nice guy]

39 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Riddle me this Batman… 🦇 what chart is this?

40 days and 40 nights the rain poured down without any light… 🤡 

Y axis: wrist actions per minute

X axis: time from 8:18pm to 8:22pm

Subject: Dave Hunter watching the NASDAQ continue to go down

[DurhamBorn]

36 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

5 years of growth...... gone!

Dont worry you can collect the 6% divis until things improve,,,,,,,oh hang on,,,,,,,,

[reformed nice guy]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Dont worry you can collect the 6% divis until things improve,,,,,,,oh hang on,,,,,,,,

Then you need to pay 0.75% annual management fee on top of your -53.39% year to date return!

[Viceroy]

On 16/06/2022 at 11:28, mcdongle said:

For those talking about NZ house prices.

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116357/median-prices-auckland-now-lower-they-were-year-ago-median-price-north-shore-down

North Shore [Auckland] it says, Median price down by $145000 in May.

 

GDP not looking good either down 0.2% last quarter.

 

Jacinda is at the sneaking in the back door to avoid protesters stage.

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/06/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-says-protesters-had-zero-effect-on-school-visit-would-be-shame-to-let-it-detract-from-event.html

We live on the North Shore..we rent and had to look for a new place a few months ago..went to 1 open home viewing looking to buy a beautiful 1920's bungalow with sea views, but such an inflated price - they wanted 1.7m.. stick to renting we said.. 4 weeks later the same house had been sold and came up for rent and we are now happily renting & living in same said house!  Looking to buy in a few years time and hopefully have a v small mortgage.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Viceroy said:

We live on the North Shore..we rent and had to look for a new place a few months ago..went to 1 open home viewing looking to buy a beautiful 1920's bungalow with sea views, but such an inflated price - they wanted 1.7m.. stick to renting we said.. 4 weeks later the same house had been sold and came up for rent and we are now happily renting & living in same said house!  Looking to buy in a few years time and hopefully have a v small mortgage.

If I HAD to live in Auckland, I'd choose Davenport to live in and get the ferry across to work n stuff.  Most of Auckland is shite and packed, in my view.

[Viceroy]

22 minutes ago, wherebee said:

If I HAD to live in Auckland, I'd choose Davenport to live in and get the ferry across to work n stuff.  Most of Auckland is shite and packed, in my view.

Devonport is within spitting distance .. electric scooter to the ferry - 12mins ride into the CBD, a great commute.  The average age in the 'village' is 70 tho so the nightlife is dead past 8pm.

[Virgil Caine]

10 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

On a fundamental level the fed can't keep this up, and have absolutely no precedent of doing so. I clearly suck at predicting rate moves, but I just don't see them hiking again after next month until the new year (due to the elections). Whether we see a full melt-up or a mini one after the pause is a bigger question of course.

I also don't get the idea of a slow Kahuna off the back of front-loaded interest rate rises. Surely the opposite is true, bigger hikes=bigger melt-up when they stop=bigger BK when the lagged recessionary effects of that hiking filter through.

The FOMC normally meets 8 times a year so they normally don’t have the opportunity to change rates every month

If you have near ZIRP then almost any interest rate rise is going to look massive percentage wise. The truth is historical interest rates averages have been much higher than they are now. Even in the first decade of the 21 st century they were higher than than the current figure so the predicted rise to 3.5% seems a return to the pre 2008 crash norms. The problem with low interest rates is it positively encourages people to speculate on asset price inflation rather than productivity, profits and share dividend yield.  In fact they almost guarantee malinvestment and bubble economics where money will ultimately be lost.  If businesses can not turn enough profit to accommodate 3% interest rates then they absolutely deserve to go bust.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Watch that video and then tell me there isn't a housing bubble.

 

At first I thought it was a parody of The Big Short. Then it struck me: this is real.

[Virgil Caine]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Watch that video and then tell me there isn't a housing bubble.

 

At first I thought it was a parody of The Big Short. Then it struck me: this is real.

Not many baby boomers there…… Shurely some mishtake

[THEFREEMAN]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Watch that video and then tell me there isn't a housing bubble.

 

At first I thought it was a parody of The Big Short. Then it struck me: this is real.

That’s how all Americans come across to me in Alabama

[tank]

16 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Completely agree. We should be sticking the knife in the ECB. Ok, ours may only be a pen knife whilst the Fed are using a sword but it is what is right for our economy. The EU are not our friends

The UK doesn't have any friends.

It has strategic alliances like all other countries.

We cannot escape our economic ties to mainland Europe either. What affects them, affects us and there's nothing we can do about it. There'll be no sticking the blunt pen knife in for this reason.

As for how the Americans view it, very differently I suspect. The EU to them is effectively Germany plus 20+ bloodsucking dependents. 

Germany is still effectively a US garrison too. What is it? 40 odd US military bases? They never left and with good reason. Europe is effectively their post war empire. 

[marceau]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Watch that video and then tell me there isn't a housing bubble.

 

At first I thought it was a parody of The Big Short. Then it struck me: this is real.

Don't know how old this video is, but housing is in the most obvious blow-off top and for some reason nobody can see it. It's amazing.

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

Don't know how old this video is, but housing is in the the most obvious blow-off top and for some reason nobody can see it. It's amazing.

It'll be from the last few days, all of their stuff is always current.

 

2008 but with huge inflation, more debt and structural problems everywhere.

 

We just never learn.

[marceau]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

It'll be from the last few days, all of their stuff is always current.

 

2008 but with huge inflation, more debt and structural problems everywhere.

 

We just never learn.

Perhaps the difference this time is that there's a good chance the market won't recover for decades. Not a credit crunch, a long term credit decline.

[MrXxxx]

More GOG info...interesting to see that the share price yesterday reached the NAV proposed in this article, all be it for a brief moment....seems all the more suspicious then that the BoD would recommend the current offer that is below the NAV value...questions whose interest they are working for/in.....I think there is more to see in this share in the next few months, although having GOG myself I am bias!

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/985091/go-ahead-takeover-is-all-about-bus-depots-and-is-a-real-steal-says-citi-985091.html

Additional article

https://capital.com/go-ahead-group-gives-green-light-to-kinetic-offer-but-bid-war-may-be-looming

[Jesus Wept]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61835796
 

 

this could be just the start. There must be loads of companies who are teetering on the edge and struggling with high supply chain costs, Labour prices and now add lack of demand. 
 

The whole thing could collapse. 
 

Big Kahuna here we come…… ? 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

Another one.

 

"When did you realise that you were going to freeze to death in the winter of 22?"

 

Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.