Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, BWW said:

Why are oilies continuing to crash the way they are the last few days. Main story for weeks - huge energy crisis and high oil prices with prospect of a horrendous winter of shortages. Nothing changed with that. Other story - an inadequate interest rate hike may cause a recession and that means oilies share prices should crash.

Seems to me the latter would usually have an effect for a day or two but traders would then look at the long term and we'd be back to stability / towards where we were.

Looks like a crash but perhaps its just a 'pull-back' given the recent soundings of taxing profits. Today's low [at close] was the 'normal' price just 10 weeks ago.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Anyhoo...on that note I decide my first Rio ladder was hit today so I bought 200 @ 5171. That probably means they will be sub 5000 by the end of next week.

If this is the case then "You are @Yellow_Reduced_Stickerand I claim my Five pound note!" :-)

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

Just come in and seen the oilies have indeed shit the bed…. along with the ‘big miners’

Like @GoneDark I see the risk of a big crisis coming - a recession / depression ‘a la’ 2007-09.

Massive demand destruction until 2024…. history shows BP, Shell etc can drop 50% when this happens. 

I thought they were going to run up till Sept but have sold out 55% of all my holdings so fairly relaxed, only free SIPP money and 40% profits at risk

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, snaga said:

Biden going to SA to beg the Arabs to produce more?

Worries that China will go in to another lockdown?

Worries that a big recession will reduce demand?

, is this a buying opportunity?

Would be a buying opportunity if they were cheap enough but even at today's close prices i'm not tempted.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, BWW said:

I think the "windfall tax" involved a behind closed doors deal between ministers and BP/Shell where the UK investments deduction will mean they don't actually pay very much at all if anything.

Agree, I thought exactly the same the other day with BP's recent purchases....buy others assets, do share buyback, reduce the bottom line and everyones happy i.e. the oiles pay a 'token tax' and the politicos look tough...oh, and probably have directorships in a few years time!

[Ash4781b]

Just for interest steer a group conversation to crypto investing or nft’s. Had one yesterday and the person said buy they buy them because they go up and the other said surely there’s no intrinsic value. A real contrast and potentially a monumental unwinding if people are piling in clueless. Going to be a bloodbath.

[Van Lady]

On 16/06/2022 at 13:21, wherebee said:

i've been telling everyone I know in the UK and Europe to get winter fuel supplies in now for months.

almost all mock me.

I was mocked 11 years ago when I said I was installing a multi fuel stove because I thought the uk wasn’t energy secure. Scoffed at…the uk will never be short of energy was the general response.

Recently tried again to suggest people think about how they’re going to heat their homes because of energy costs and there may be shortages of gas, oil and perhaps power cuts. Buy calor gas heaters, cylinders etc. and stock up was my suggestion. They’re still scoffing.

Fuck them. Apart from a good friend who has a smart and decent husband who has upped stockpiling free wood for stove I don’t care about any of them now.

I’ve more than a winters supply of smokeless fuel, logs, butane gas and I’m still stock piling. Aiming to get two winters supply in now at current prices. 

Not telling any of the stupid scoffing twats what’s hidden in my garage and sheds. If they’re cold because of energy prices, lack of availability or power cuts I’ll just say I know it’s terrible isn’t it but I ain’t inviting any of them to mine apart from my lovely pal and her decent hubby and kids.

 

 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

How much ‘value’ has been wiped off global stock markets so far in 2022  ?

ANSWER :    $24 TRILLION DOLLARS !! 

$ 12 TRILLION alone was from US equities. Vast proportion Mega Cap Tech stocks. 

The chart below shows global equities yearly  gain / loss.

Each bar is a year starting 2004.

You can see the $28 trillion wiped back in 2008 in the GFC.

(Granted we are only 6 months in for 2022 so could get better…. or worse…. )

So when to buy???...the 'feedback' the last few days from Bloomberg Live commentators/guests is that we are on the edge of a recession that will be tolerable the rest of the year but hit first quarter 2023...so beware "The Winter of Discontent" [W.Shakespeare,; Richard III].....thoughts?

[Calcutta]

34 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So when to buy???...the 'feedback' the last few days from Bloomberg Live commentators/guests is that we are on the edge of a recession that will be tolerable the rest of the year but hit first quarter 2023...so beware "The Winter of Discontent" [W.Shakespeare,; Richard III].....thoughts?

Rather depends what you're buying. 

I wouldn't personally opt for a nasdaq tracker until there's trapeze nets along Leadenhall Street, but there's still some bargains out there. 

[MrXxxx]

18 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

I wouldn't personally opt for a nasdaq tracker until there's trapeze nets along Leadenhall Street

:-))))))...love it!

[HousePriceMania]

If this is the BK, sell now 

 

If not, buy, buy everything. 

 

Just bidding on a genuine crystal ball on ebay 

[HousePriceMania]

57 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So when to buy???...the 'feedback' the last few days from Bloomberg Live commentators/guests is that we are on the edge of a recession that will be tolerable the rest of the year but hit first quarter 2023...so beware "The Winter of Discontent" [W.Shakespeare,; Richard III].....thoughts?

Aldi are selling discount tents 

[MrXxxx]

44 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Aldi are selling discount tents 

...but only in the Summer not the Winter unfortunately! :-p

[reformed nice guy]

I hope no one sold all their bitcoin during the recent falls a few days ago and then put the remainder into Great Panther...

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I hope no one sold all their bitcoin during the recent falls a few days ago and then put the remainder into Great Panther...

i did sell out, but i didnt go for great panther, what happened to them?

 

great looking chart;

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, Van Lady said:

I was mocked 11 years ago when I said I was installing a multi fuel stove because I thought the uk wasn’t energy secure. Scoffed at…the uk will never be short of energy was the general response.

Recently tried again to suggest people think about how they’re going to heat their homes because of energy costs and there may be shortages of gas, oil and perhaps power cuts. Buy calor gas heaters, cylinders etc. and stock up was my suggestion. They’re still scoffing.

Fuck them. Apart from a good friend who has a smart and decent husband who has upped stockpiling free wood for stove I don’t care about any of them now.

I’ve more than a winters supply of smokeless fuel, logs, butane gas and I’m still stock piling. Aiming to get two winters supply in now at current prices. 

Not telling any of the stupid scoffing twats what’s hidden in my garage and sheds. If they’re cold because of energy prices, lack of availability or power cuts I’ll just say I know it’s terrible isn’t it but I ain’t inviting any of them to mine apart from my lovely pal and her decent hubby and kids.

 

 

Completely agree, amazes me how people can't see beyond the end of next week. I've got nearly two Winters of wood and smokeless fuel now. Downside is that I have to chop the wood, but it's free!

I'll be toasty, answering the door in my t-shirt when it's freezing outside and the power's off haha. Whaddya you want ya cunt, whaddya mean you're freezing, it's bloody boiling in here.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Completely agree, amazes me how people can't see beyond the end of next week. I've got nearly two Winters of wood and smokeless fuel now. Downside is that I have to chop the wood, but it's free!

I'll be toasty, answering the door in my t-shirt when it's freezing outside and the power's off haha. Whaddya you want ya cunt, whaddya mean you're freezing, it's bloody boiling in here.

He who chops the wood, warms himself twice

[ashestoashes]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Completely agree, amazes me how people can't see beyond the end of next week. I've got nearly two Winters of wood and smokeless fuel now. Downside is that I have to chop the wood, but it's free!

I'll be toasty, answering the door in my t-shirt when it's freezing outside and the power's off haha. Whaddya you want ya cunt, whaddya mean you're freezing, it's bloody boiling in here.

wet rag over your chimney, smoke you out, whose wood did you say it was ?

[Van Lady]

4 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Completely agree, amazes me how people can't see beyond the end of next week. I've got nearly two Winters of wood and smokeless fuel now. Downside is that I have to chop the wood, but it's free!

I'll be toasty, answering the door in my t-shirt when it's freezing outside and the power's off haha. Whaddya you want ya cunt, whaddya mean you're freezing, it's bloody boiling in here.

Lovely pic ❤️.

Another advantage of a multi fuel or wood burning stove apart from heating our home with the ability to pay current prices or stockpile free wood is that it can heat water, beans etc and cook soup, casseroles etc.

Regarding @ashestoashescomment I’m sure you season your free wood satisfactorily because you’re well ahead and know dry wood is more efficient in a stove and better for longevity of the appliance.

 

[Starsend]

19 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

Lovely pic ❤️.

Another advantage of a multi fuel or wood burning stove apart from heating our home with the ability to pay current prices or stockpile free wood is that it can heat water, beans etc and cook soup, casseroles etc.

Regarding @ashestoashescomment I’m sure you season your free wood satisfactorily because you’re well ahead and know dry wood is more efficient in a stove and better for longevity of the appliance.

 

Yep can cook on top of mine if I need to, not a lot of room though so only if I really had to.

I season for a year usually, 18 months to two years for oak.

I've had unseasoned wood before, burns terribly.

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, leonardratso said:

i did sell out, but i didnt go for great panther, what happened to them?

 

great looking chart;

The Panther was not destined for this mortal plain and has ascended to the silver stars to fulfill the prophecy. - The Great Panther chapter 6 verse 2.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-06-17/Fed-s-Powell-Digital-dollar-could-help-USD-maintain-its-world-s-reserve-currency-status.html
 

Well that escalated quickly.

 

 

[marceau]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-06-17/Fed-s-Powell-Digital-dollar-could-help-USD-maintain-its-world-s-reserve-currency-status.html
 

Well that escalated quickly.

 

 

A future of black markets, buy-offs, squeezes and shakedowns.

[M S E Refugee]

Washington sanctions Chinese and UAE firms https://www.rt.com/business/557325-us-sanctions-china-uae-iran-oil/

The Yanks are looking desperate to stay relevant in this new Economic World Order.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

A future of black markets, buy-offs, squeezes and shakedowns.

Now now…

 

People are starting to ‘get it’. There’s still hope yet.