Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[marceau]

39 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Now now…

 

People are starting to ‘get it’. There’s still hope yet.

 

I like the gif, but for anyone with more than 2 brain cells it's going to be the other way around. You pay lip service to the system but all the real stuff is done under the table. The link between real and nominal is already stretched, stuff like this will break it entirely.

I feel sorry for Powell and crew. They can design the fanciest systems, the most delicate management, the most innovative solutions but it's all for nought when trust in the US government keeps falling.

The federal reserve ultimately cannot outmanage the stupidity of the federal government. The most they can do is buy time, but for what? The drooling retards in Washington will still be drooling retards and will just fuck everything up again.

[Errol]

Unless they plan on banning gold/silver, everyone will just use that. Untraceable, physical, no ledger etc.

As I've maintained - the more digital the world becomes the more vital non-digital things will be.

[Bricormortis]

It’s not being “examined.” It was decided long ago, which is why they’ve intentionally imploded the system. Everything they’ve done, from vaccine passports, to “war” in Ukraine, to switching to non-existent “green” energy.:.was done to create the conditions for CBDC

 

Do they need to "create the conditions " though ? 

[Lightscribe]

7 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

It’s not being “examined.” It was decided long ago, which is why they’ve intentionally imploded the system. Everything they’ve done, from vaccine passports, to “war” in Ukraine, to switching to non-existent “green” energy.:.was done to create the conditions for CBDC

 

Do they need to "create the conditions " though ? 

Yes, because there’s a timeframe they’re working to and they need indoctrination for acceptance. 

I asked around in my office the other day in regards to how everyone felt about the notion of a digital ID.

Most were ‘pro’ the idea of not having to have multiple documents/IDs and instead just having one. When questioned about monitoring/tracking, most said ‘well googles got all my data anyway and I’ve got nothing to hide.’

Compare that to backlash of National ID cards a couple of decades ago. Covid lockdowns and conformity were the ultimate testbed and everyone passed.

[Lightscribe]

16 minutes ago, Errol said:

Unless they plan on banning gold/silver, everyone will just use that. Untraceable, physical, no ledger etc.

As I've maintained - the more digital the world becomes the more vital non-digital things will be.

Exactly (which is why I’m heavy in physical PMs) but the question should be what the fuck are they going to do about it, to stop that happening?

Gold/silver running in loss of confidence in fiat is not what they want. I have a hunch they may of just given that some thought.

[Bricormortis]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yes, because there’s a timeframe they’re working to and they need indoctrination for acceptance. 

I asked around in my office the other day in regards to how everyone felt about the notion of a digital ID.

Most were ‘pro’ the idea of not having to have multiple documents/IDs and instead just having one. When questioned about monitoring/tracking, most said ‘well googles got all my data anyway and I’ve got nothing to hide.’

Compare that to backlash of National ID cards a couple of decades ago. Covid lockdowns and conformity were the ultimate testbed and everyone passed.

 

Well depends whether you feel Digital ID and Digital currency are inextricably linked. A bancor digital currency would not be, plus currency is pretty much digital already. Yes its possible we are going to go chinese style, but not a given as I know many believe,  we have to wait and see.  I dont think they need covid and war to introduce a digital currency.

[Pip321]

20 minutes ago, Errol said:

Unless they plan on banning gold/silver, everyone will just use that. Untraceable, physical, no ledger etc.

As I've maintained - the more digital the world becomes the more vital non-digital things will be.

They could never ban gold….there is no precedent for that, certainly not in the last few days. I will just check a little further back…

Holy crap, the US did what with gold between 1933 to 1971.🤦🏻‍♂️😞

I best get some nuggets 😉

[geordie_lurch]

I'm so pleased others such as @Lightscribea in this thread can entertain the alternative views of what's going which is closer to my own of where we are at and why For a decent contrarian article suggesting how this is all deliberate, give this 10 mins of your time over the weekend: https://alt-market.us/the-engineered-stagflationary-collapse-has-arrived-heres-what-happens-next/

The Engineered Stagflationary Collapse Has Arrived – Here’s What Happens Next

"First and foremost, no, the Fed is not motivated by profits, at least not primarily. The Fed is able to print wealth at will, they don’t care about profits – They care about power and centralization. Would they sacrifice “the golden goose” of US markets in order to gain more power and full bore globalism? Absolutely. Would central bankers sacrifice the dollar and blow up the Fed as an institution in order to force a global currency system on the masses? There is no doubt; they’ve put the US economy at risk in the past in order to get more centralization."

And

"It is no coincidence that the culmination of the Fed’s stimulus bonanza has arrived right after the incredible damage done to the economy and the global supply chain by the covid lockdowns. It is no coincidence that these two events work together to create the perfect stagflationary scenario. And, it’s no coincidence that the only people who benefit from these conditions are proponents of the “Great Reset” ideology at the World Economic Forum and other globalist institutions. This is an engineered collapse that has been in the works for many years.

The goal is to “reset” the world, to erase what’s left of free market systems, and to establish what they call the “Shared Economy” system. This system is one in which the people who survive the crash will be made utterly dependent on government through Universal Basic Income and one that will restrict all resource usage in the name of “carbon reduction.” According to the WEF, you will own nothing and you will like it.

The collapse is engineered to create crisis conditions so frightening that they expect the majority of the public to submit to a collectivist hive mind lifestyle with greatly reduced standards. This would be accomplished through UBI, digital currency models, carbon taxation, population reduction, rationing of all commodities and a social credit system. The goal, in other words, is complete control through technocratic authoritarianism.

All of this is dependent on the exploitation of crisis events to create fear in the population. Now that economic destabilization has arrived, what happens next? Here are my predictions…"

[Lightscribe]

Just now, Bricormortis said:

Well depends whether you feel Digital ID and Digital currency are inextricably linked. A bancor digital currency would not be, plus currency is pretty much digital already. Yes its possible we are going to go chinese style, but not a given as I know many believe,  we have to wait and see.  I dont think they need covid and war to introduce a digital currency.

Yes I ‘know’ that digital ID and digital currency will be interlinked

https://www.ft.com/content/88f47c48-97fe-4df3-854e-0d404a3a5f9a

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/next-step-in-plans-to-govern-use-of-digital-identities-revealed--2

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-legislation-set-to-make-digital-identities-more-trustworthy-and-secure

[CannonFodder]

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Exactly (which is why I’m heavy in physical PMs) but the question should be what the fuck are they going to do about it, to stop that happening?

Gold/silver running in loss of confidence in fiat is not what they want. I have a hunch they may of just given that some thought.

Good question - men with guns come to your house.

Does anyone know how to frustrate a metal detector set to only ping when hitting pms . I know detectors can be set to ignore unwanted metals 

If I wrap in coil would that work.

Happy to have a reading that metal is present - just not the right type of metal.

Does it return the first metal encountered.

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I'm so pleased others such as @Lightscribea in this thread can entertain the alternative views of what's going which is closer to my own of where we are at and why For a decent contrarian article suggesting how this is all deliberate, give this 10 mins of your time over the weekend: https://alt-market.us/the-engineered-stagflationary-collapse-has-arrived-heres-what-happens-next/

The Engineered Stagflationary Collapse Has Arrived – Here’s What Happens Next

"First and foremost, no, the Fed is not motivated by profits, at least not primarily. The Fed is able to print wealth at will, they don’t care about profits – They care about power and centralization. Would they sacrifice “the golden goose” of US markets in order to gain more power and full bore globalism? Absolutely. Would central bankers sacrifice the dollar and blow up the Fed as an institution in order to force a global currency system on the masses? There is no doubt; they’ve put the US economy at risk in the past in order to get more centralization."

And

"It is no coincidence that the culmination of the Fed’s stimulus bonanza has arrived right after the incredible damage done to the economy and the global supply chain by the covid lockdowns. It is no coincidence that these two events work together to create the perfect stagflationary scenario. And, it’s no coincidence that the only people who benefit from these conditions are proponents of the “Great Reset” ideology at the World Economic Forum and other globalist institutions. This is an engineered collapse that has been in the works for many years.

The goal is to “reset” the world, to erase what’s left of free market systems, and to establish what they call the “Shared Economy” system. This system is one in which the people who survive the crash will be made utterly dependent on government through Universal Basic Income and one that will restrict all resource usage in the name of “carbon reduction.” According to the WEF, you will own nothing and you will like it.

The collapse is engineered to create crisis conditions so frightening that they expect the majority of the public to submit to a collectivist hive mind lifestyle with greatly reduced standards. This would be accomplished through UBI, digital currency models, carbon taxation, population reduction, rationing of all commodities and a social credit system. The goal, in other words, is complete control through technocratic authoritarianism.

All of this is dependent on the exploitation of crisis events to create fear in the population. Now that economic destabilization has arrived, what happens next? Here are my predictions…"

I still think that NWO have bitten off more than they can chew.

[Errol]

10 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

They could never ban gold….there is no precedent for that, certainly not in the last few days. I will just check a little further back…

Holy crap, the US did what with gold between 1933 to 1971.🤦🏻‍♂️😞

I best get some nuggets 😉

Hardly anyone turned their gold in during the US ban. Only the idiots.

[Pip321]

In the meantime Bitcoin has just taken its early morning shit. Yep, this is dollars and it’s below $20k. 

I know many (myself included) are not coin holders but it is relevant particularly to tech stock sentiment, which then impacts the Dow.  

And it’s particularly relevant over the weekends for gauging sentiment in the markets for Monday morning.

An interesting watch over the weekend to see if the whales come out and support it back up. 
 

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

14 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Good question - men with guns come to your house.

Does anyone know how to frustrate a metal detector set to only ping when hitting pms . I know detectors can be set to ignore unwanted metals 

If I wrap in coil would that work.

Happy to have a reading that metal is present - just not the right type of metal.

Does it return the first metal encountered.

@King Penda

[jamtomorrow]

Update from Dr. Tim further crystallising macro themes of this thread: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/

He brings "hierarchy of needs" into play in the context of the so-called discretionary economy, and then goes on to point out how the discretionary economy is - effectively - heavily leveraged on affordable essentials. The unwind of that leverage is going to be devastating.

What I want to understand now is how this energy perspective interacts with the technology perspective, because the technology genie isn't going back in the bottle. Semiconductors and AI in its various forms aren't about to be undiscovered, and any "fun times" coming in Taiwan will look like a speed bump in the grand sweep.

China is often talked of as today's factory of the world, but that concentration of "productive" labour could just as easily be the final burning out of the wave that started at Arkwright's mill 250 years ago. The factories of the next wave will be built on AI and automation, and increasingly devoid of human presence.

The energy crunch doesn't mean we "regress" to some previous socio-economic model where those of us that make it through the initial unravelling just "go back to the fields", or some such. AI and automation will sooner or later accomplish most tasks better than a human at lower cost (net energy input).

And so what keeps me up at night: how will I or my children or my grandchildren stake a claim to the fruits of such an economy? It won't be based on our contribution (i.e. "work") because we'll be out-competed by the machines at every opportunity.

Put another way: it's not *just* the energy crunch (although that's certainly bad enough) - it's the energy crunch rolling over the top of the economy just as the machines *really* start getting their teeth into the rump that seems historically toxic at this point.

[M S E Refugee]

9 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Update from Dr. Tim further crystallising macro themes of this thread: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/

He brings "hierarchy of needs" into play in the context of the so-called discretionary economy, and then goes on to point out how the discretionary economy is - effectively - heavily leveraged on affordable essentials. The unwind of that leverage is going to be devastating.

What I want to understand now is how this energy perspective interacts with the technology perspective, because the technology genie isn't going back in the bottle. Semiconductors and AI in its various forms aren't about to be undiscovered, and any "fun times" coming in Taiwan will look like a speed bump in the grand sweep.

China is often talked of as today's factory of the world, but that concentration of "productive" labour could just as easily be the final burning out of the wave that started at Arkwright's mill 250 years ago. The factories of the next wave will be built on AI and automation, and increasingly devoid of human presence.

The energy crunch doesn't mean we "regress" to some previous socio-economic model where those of us that make it through the initial unravelling just "go back to the fields", or some such. AI and automation will sooner or later accomplish most tasks better than a human at lower cost (net energy input).

And so what keeps me up at night: how will I or my children or my grandchildren stake a claim to the fruits of such an economy? It won't be based on our contribution (i.e. "work") because we'll be out-competed by the machines at every opportunity.

Put another way: it's not *just* the energy crunch (although that's certainly bad enough) - it's the energy crunch rolling over the top of the economy just as the machines *really* start getting their teeth into the rump that seems historically toxic at this point.

I suppose in the Grand Scheme of things once we have these Science Fiction AI robots they will at some point have no use for the NWO and just terminate them.

[Chewing Grass]

22 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I suppose in the Grand Scheme of things once we have these Science Fiction AI robots they will at some point have no use for the NWO and just terminate them.

Globalisation would have to be on Chinese terms (not the US) they would accept nothing less.

If anything it makes Orwells 1984 dystopia the blueprint and will result in three groups, two at constant economic and proxy war and an insignificant but large third group of poorer countries in South America and Africa watching on.

[feed]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Unless they plan on banning gold/silver, everyone will just use that. Untraceable, physical, no ledger etc.

As I've maintained - the more digital the world becomes the more vital non-digital things will be.

It's not even that.  There are more physical dollars in circulation outside of the US, than domestically.  

What are they going to do, convince all the African and south american nations that run USD as a secondarily currency for price stability to covert to a tech enable CBDC, with complete control from the FED.  

Sure, CBDC's will exist for large institutions and cross boarder transactions, but cash (in it's current % of transactions) isn't going anywhere.  And if somehow the US manage to bully and threaten everyone using to dollars to do that. 

Then western sphere nations will transact in euros, because if anyone thinks the shower that is the ECB could get the EU nations into CBDC they're delusional, they can't even achieve fiscal unity.   A USD CBDC push may well save the euro..   

The fantasy of an adoption of a USD CBDC died the day the US sanction the Russian reserves.  If the policy makers still think they can implement it, then they're even dumber than i thought 

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Yes I ‘know’ that digital ID and digital currency will be interlinked

https://www.ft.com/content/88f47c48-97fe-4df3-854e-0d404a3a5f9a

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/next-step-in-plans-to-govern-use-of-digital-identities-revealed--2

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-legislation-set-to-make-digital-identities-more-trustworthy-and-secure

I guess I just didn't want to believe it.

ffs.

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, Starsend said:

Completely agree, amazes me how people can't see beyond the end of next week. I've got nearly two Winters of wood and smokeless fuel now. Downside is that I have to chop the wood, but it's free!

I'll be toasty, answering the door in my t-shirt when it's freezing outside and the power's off haha. Whaddya you want ya cunt, whaddya mean you're freezing, it's bloody boiling in here.

Why don't you put a jumper on, burn less wood and then it will last 3 years? We don't like to waste brass on here you know.

[Bricormortis]

from @jamtomorrow's linked article above.

" The World’s average person is projected to be 6% poorer in 2030, but fully 21% less prosperous by 2040, than he or she was in 2021. "

 

Just thought it worth highlighting.

[marceau]

2 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

It’s not being “examined.” It was decided long ago, which is why they’ve intentionally imploded the system. Everything they’ve done, from vaccine passports, to “war” in Ukraine, to switching to non-existent “green” energy.:.was done to create the conditions for CBDC

 

Do they need to "create the conditions " though ? 

I have no doubt there are a lot of people out there with grand plans, we all have them to one degree or another. There are undoubtedly many nasty cartels at work who do nasty stuff, but shadowy groups of people are ultimately still just people. So the biggest question of all, and one I never see answered by conspiracy guys, is who are 'they' in the first place?

Name some names. I know how WEF works, and it's largely LARP. I know how Open Society works, and it's fragile as hell. I see Pierre Omidyar, Carlos Slim, Bill Gates, I see the Sacklers and the Pritzkers of the world, they are fools, fraudsters and degenerates. I see the neocons, the zionists, the ethnocentrists and race hustlers - all armchair warriors. I see the war cartels, the banking cartels, the energy cartels, the spooks - all process dependant bureaucrats. I see the historic funds, trusts and foundations - purely paper enterprises. I see the policy and propaganda orgs - again pure paper. The notion that all of this represents some monolith with a super plan is laughable.

What I see more than anything else, is a class of people who have risen up in the 'western' nations who are utterly incompetent, stupid, lazy and conformist. Who saturate every goverment institution, every decision making body, every corporate board. Who are backed by huge resources as an accident of history and therefore never face any consequences for their fuck ups. Who can't critique and therefore easily have their strings pulled by the aformentioned cartels. None of those people are 'they', they are us. They are entirely home grown.

If all of these cartels are doing despicable shit it is because we have allowed them to. Blaming some shadowy other denies us agency. When it comes down to it who can be squeezed more easily? A nation state with a long and successful history like England or some aging scrote with a dullard son like Soros? That guy and everyone like him should live in constant fear that everything they own is going to be taken. Instead he gets supposed 'world leaders' kissing his boots. A radical change in perspective is needed. People need to stop grovelling and stop chasing shadows.

[Hunty]

How’s everyone, promise I will not mention Polymetal, see, can’t keep my word. Funny; following on from this morning’s theme on this wonderful thread.
I come from a big family, I went out last night with one of my brothers, not seen him for a while as he lives quite away from me, so I decided to make the effort and go north to meet him. He lives in a seaside town, I did not realise but as you age it is quite nice to have the ocean on your doorstep. As he state he gets a free day out come holiday every day.
He is 54 in November, quite an intelligent chap, but never really used it in any way to further his quality of life. He would disagree, and make out his intelligence has carved out the path he took.
In 2003, he was talking about the stuff mentioned on here this morning, electronic currency, control, ID, plandemics. I used to make fun of him, but to his credit, he used to say I’m getting out of all of this shit. The rat race, just going to drift and use up my life’s credits as I wish to choose. By no means is he a hippy or a scrounger. To be fair he has never took a penny of the state in all his years.
At 29 he had his house paid for, worked his balls off from leaving school, I’m guessing he became disorientated in his later twenties, I seen a change in his work habits. He always said no kids, no wife, hence now I’m guessing many of you would think poor choice as life could become lonely in your fifties. I could not live without my kids, just travelled thousands of miles to see each of them.
Anyway at 30 he jacked in a £30k a year job, yep £30k 25 years ago. He signed up for an Engineering degree, not because he wanted to become an engineer but because it interested him. Got it all free, took out no loans and funded the full four years, Msc included out of his savings. He graduated, and took a job, lasted 12 months, then thought nah. So then he managed to get a four year scholarship to carry out PhD research, yep another four years of f--king around as I used to say. Did that, and took another year out on the money he had saved from his scholarship. By now he was nearly 40, and still owned his house debt free. A degree, Masters and PhD and no intention to use them.
Then he really did surprise me, out of the blue he took a job, I thought umm, he has gone back on his word and we lost touch for a while. Next I hear after 7 months he had quit, and his house was up for sale. Anyway we met up at the time and he was talking about emigrating to New Zealand, and so he did, he lasted over there six years, got his citizenship, never worked over there; never claimed a cent, just lived off his house sale money. Then on returning back to the UK I think around seven years ago he has lived in this seaside town spending the rest of his house sale money.
Meeting up with him last night, he is down to his last few grand, he has paid rent since selling his house, six years rent in New Zealand and the rest her in the UK. I asked him if he regretted his choices. He said I have just spent the best years of my life living in a way most will never see or spend in retirement. The years ahead are in health terms never going to be replicated. I will not allow the system to rob me of my healthy years in return of my hard labour.
I said what are you going to do now, no house, no work history since turning 30 apart from two odd one or so year stints in two companies so more or less 22 years of nothing. He said bro, I have no idea until the money runs out. But I look out at the world; I told you all those years back that things will change. Once they let credit run and run in 2003, things were never going back to normal. Look what has happened since with your roof above your head prices, look at incomes, look at the quality of life; what you get back off the state for your hard earned income.
He said if I go in my sleep tonight I have no regrets. I bet not many 54 year old men or women can say that, I can. Got up this morning read the last few pages of this thread and thought about his choices, my choices, money, experiences etc etc.
I’m wondering how many people are really happy with their choices looking back at mid fifty today. My generation were indoctrinated to think, work, house pension, more wor, more money, bigger house, bigger pension, better longer retirement. And so on. Look now, look what’s happening to society, those rules can no longer apply, everything seems to be turned on its head. Do not work, do not want for anything, just come to the state we will provide what you need and toe the line, just do not ask questions and want for anything. Anyway my fingers are hurting now, apologies for the long post, but if you got this far, well done and take care all. Told you I would not mention Polymetal again.
 

[feed]

19 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

from @jamtomorrow's linked article above.

" The World’s average person is projected to be 6% poorer in 2030, but fully 21% less prosperous by 2040, than he or she was in 2021. "

 

Just thought it worth highlighting.

As dramatic as that sounds, it takes the world back to an income distribution closer to 1970's.  And averages, as always. 

Countries by mean wealth (US dollars) per adult. 
From 2021 publication of Credit Suisse. Countries by median wealth (US dollars) per adult.
...
By region.
Region    World
Median    7,522
Mean    79,952
 

[sleepwello'nights]

5 minutes ago, Hunty said:

 I asked him if he regretted his choices. He said I have just spent the best years of my life living in a way most will never see or spend in retirement. 
 

https://fablesofaesop.com/the-ant-and-the-grasshopper.html

I have no envy for your brother. The path he chose is not one I would have taken. If I had earned enough money in my twenties and thirties I suppose I could have succumbed to the temptation to sit back and coast along as your brother did. But if I had looking back now I wonder if I would consider it to  have been a wise choice.