Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

 

Those were about financial stuff but this bit poses the BIG question:

Which pop performers will you arranging for the Durham Summit and what's the dress code? We definitely don't want Duran Duran.

Maybe these guys then  just for this number.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Houses will come down,but the young will of lost all their savings so cant take advantage.Wonder how many grannies left their grandkids £30k in their wills only for  them to lose it all in crypto.Its been an incredible scam though,maybe the biggest illusion since the tulip craze,but even worse.Some will of made life changing amounts and walked away of course,your just seeing the bag holders now.

Thing is, I know quite a few people with crypto, some were heavily into it years ago before most had heard of it.

 

Not a single one of them has sold anything. It's all "HODL!!!" as they thought it was going to 100k, then it would be a million etc. 

 

It makes me wonder, how many people ever actually sold crypto? I bet it's fewer than we might think.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Houses will come down,but the young will of lost all their savings so cant take advantage.Wonder how many grannies left their grandkids £30k in their wills only for  them to lose it all in crypto.Its been an incredible scam though,maybe the biggest illusion since the tulip craze,but even worse.Some will of made life changing amounts and walked away of course,your just seeing the bag holders now.

I don't think it was a high proportion of the young that got involved. Very small percentage who will have gone all in. Some will now kill themselves because they will have based their whole future on winning the bet big. Very sad.

[MrXxxx]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just found out a friend put 50k into crypto at the top, it's now less than 10k 

 

He's 56 and not got a pot to piss in now.

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

 

Wonder how many more there are out there.

All about stupidity and greed, stupidity by not researching the 'shoeshine tips', and greed going 'all in' on one sector to maximize potential gain rather than diversifying across several, and getting a more secure but little less return....he wasn't investing he was gambling, and if someone said "Hey there's a horse at Sandown Park that's a 100% winner why not put £50k on it, you'll be a millionaire" he would have called them an idiot.....

[Bricormortis]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Not a single one of them has sold anything. It's all "HODL!!!" as they thought it was going to 100k, then it would be a million etc. 

 

It makes me wonder, how many people ever actually sold crypto? I bet it's fewer than we might think.

 

I recall some guy here on dosbods saying he wouldn't cash in until he could buy his own island. Maybe he has to settle for a traffic island. Been some funny rants on twatter from the causalties.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

Thing is, I know quite a few people with crypto, some were heavily into it years ago before most had heard of it.

 

Not a single one of them has sold anything. It's all "HODL!!!" as they thought it was going to 100k, then it would be a million etc. 

 

It makes me wonder, how many people ever actually sold crypto? I bet it's fewer than we might think.

 

Plenty will have sold. Mostly not making life changing sums. Bought a few hundred quids worth and sold at a few grand. That sort of thing.

There will be lots selling now. Either banking much smaller profits than they could have or taking losses out of fear of bigger losses.

Crypto might bounce back over a few years but a lot of people will have been burnt now or know someone who was. Not sure there are another set of mugs to pump it up again. As DB always says the market will hurt the most people it can. Most people will buy high and sell low. They won't assess value and will be swayed by headlines.

[Ash4781b]

29 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just found out a friend put 50k into crypto at the top, it's now less than 10k 

 

He's 56 and not got a pot to piss in now.

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

 

Wonder how many more there are out there.

Loads. There’s a few companies starting to crop up mentioning mis- selling and separate crypto scams (aside from the actual crypto) so we’ll see if it’s a lot of people it’ll get picked up in the media.

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Plenty will have sold. Mostly not making life changing sums. Bought a few hundred quids worth and sold at a few grand. That sort of thing.

There will be lots selling now. Either banking much smaller profits than they could have or taking losses out of fear of bigger losses.

Crypto might bounce back over a few years but a lot of people will have been burnt now or know someone who was. Not sure there are another set of mugs to pump it up again. As DB always says the market will hurt the most people it can. Most people will buy high and sell low. They won't assess value and will be swayed by headlines.

I'd bet over 90% are hodlers 

[Lightscribe]

13 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

I recall some guy here on dosbods saying he wouldn't cash in until he could buy his own island. Maybe he has to settle for a traffic island. Been some funny rants on twatter from the causalties.

Probably me. But then again I anticipated  the crash that’s happening now in tech and when crypto was at its peak (BTC to $10k). My original money in was from 2012 in the infancy and profits withdrawn several times.

Nothing has changed. I still hold the exact same beliefs. I was never going to sell for fiat (unless I had enough for an island as joke) as the ISO 20022 crypto I hold now, I believe it’s part of the CBDCs infrastructure future. Doesn’t matter to me as I don’t consider it part of my investments or savings only a hedge against the future. That’s been my outlook from the start that I’ve mentioned on here several years now.

[Errol]

37 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Wonder how many grannies left their grandkids £30k in their wills only for  them to lose it all in crypto.Its been an incredible scam though,maybe the biggest illusion since the tulip craze,but even worse.Some will of made life changing amounts and walked away of course,your just seeing the bag holders now.

Lots of people will still be buying now, thinking it is the bottom (I see it's gone back to 19K+ now. I still think it will ultimately come to rest under $10k.

[Boon]

What really is the difference between someone that YOLO's £50k into crypto, than one who YOLO's £50k into tech shares, or YOLO's £50k into new build flats?

The problem is the allocation of assets, not the underlying investment. Putting 90%+ of your net wealth into anything is dumb, putting 90%+ of your net wealth with leverage is extra dumb.

Yet people seem to treat these cases as different. For example the crypto investor is a degenerate, the heavily leveraged property investor is seen as some kind of brave risk taker who 'deserves' his profit.

The trouble is, it seems that there is no shortage of fools out there.

[THEFREEMAN]

22 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Hundreds of ball bearings under floorboards.

I think iv worked 18 years in my life,thats a bit much really.I left a fantastic job at 31 with GSK,but i was in my prime and working shifts was missing out too much on life redundancy was on the table with a 50% boost to years in the DB pension then RPI linked,i knew the value of that from 10 to 15 years RPI linked.Il be honest here i loved women and i spent the next 6 years pulling and dating all over the country.I also even met a girl from Canada id first talked to when the internet had just started on ICQ the first chat program.We had been friends since,i used to send her Es inside tapes recorded at The Venue in Spennymoor,she was the most popular girl on campus for her parties with that music and chemicals,she adored me.She messaged me one day saying she was going to be in London on a work project (she was then and is now a film/tv producer) and it was our chance for a weekend.I can tell you it was incredible,Still friends now.

Another i ended up with lined her two kids up outside to shake my hand when i left,upper class,she was a big wig in the music business,David Gray of Babylon fame phoned her while i was,well you know enjoying her Hanging Gardens 

Up and down the length of these islands i travelled (and once over to Ireland),saw most of the country,stayed for free in all kinds of places,met nut jobs,beauty queens,a woman who played hockey for England to a woman from Glasgow who worked in Greggs.

I woudnt change any of it.The only thing though is my house came first,paid for and id never ever sell it then or now.I also of course had my investments and although not huge then very nice.The income from them gave me about half of my income.For me life is about moments,special times,and i always had the mentality that every now and again the universe would bow to me,not me to it.Most of my friends married at 23 etc and have had boring lives.They think two weeks in the med means they are living.Each to their own.Life goes too fast,50 now and you start to notice your going invisible,where at 30 id get the look and smile of women every day now its much rarer.I can say though having your own house was key,and thats the big injustice to the young,one that i think might be about to unwind.

 

How do you break up with women

even if I only met them 3 times I still start crying when it ends

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'd bet over 90% are hodlers 

Surely a lot will have taken their original stake out or a bit of profit. Top slicing as we would call it on here, when referring to shares. Although it does seem that a lot of people aren't emotionally capable of that. By selling some they think only of the profit they're missing out on. For them it is either all or nothing.

[BWW]

On 19/06/2022 at 11:15, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I don't think it was a high proportion of the young that got involved. Very small percentage who will have gone all in. Some will now kill themselves because they will have based their whole future on winning the bet big. Very sad.

I find it interesting that everyone here is posting as if the fat lady has sung.

I have repeatedly posted here that BTC can go to zero and there will be no establishment intervention or effect except for the holders.

However whilst the direction of a few DAYS is clear and it's headline news on out propoganda services [which is surely creating a run / making it worse], personally it wouldn't surprise me if it has a little bounce back or even comes back for some years with the same speculative BS around about it as before as well as the intelligent tech points about the technology and it's worth.

I also grimaced and felt sad when I read the first of these posts thinking of the real people who are now in trouble.

Has the fat lady sung?

Decl: never owned btc, not likely to as a speculative bet. Mucch more likely to buy some to score my hooch from the bloke in a car on the sidestreet once cash is abolished and there's prohibition.

[Axeman123]

56 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just found out a friend put 50k into crypto at the top, it's now less than 10k 

 

He's 56 and not got a pot to piss in now.

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

 

Wonder how many more there are out there.

56 and only £50k to his name. I suppose he was in a bad position either way, but a multi-bagger on crypto might have given him a retirement. Still, no bouncing back fromt that now for him.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, BWW said:

I find it interesting that everyone here is posting as if the fat lady has sung.

I have repeatedly posted here that BTC can go to zero and there will be no establishment intervention or effect except for the holders.

However whilst the direction of a few DAYS is clear and it's headline news on out propoganda services [which is surely creating a run / making it worse], personally it wouldn't surprise me if it has a little bounce back or even comes back for some years with the same speculative BS around about it as before as well as the intelligent tech points about the technology and it's worth.

I also grimaced and felt sad when I read the first of these posts thinking of the real people who are now in trouble.

Has the fat lady sung?

Decl: never owned btc, not likely to as a speculative bet. Mucch more likely to buy some to score my hooch from the bloke in a car on the sidestreet once cash is abolished and there's prohibition.

It could bounce back, I wrote that in one of my other posts this morning. People will panic now and crystallise their losses. If it does then bounce back they will be even more angry with themselves.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just found out a friend put 50k into crypto at the top, it's now less than 10k 

 

He's 56 and not got a pot to piss in now.

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

 

Wonder how many more there are out there.

One of Mrs AWW's mates put their entire life savings into NIO somewhere near the top. I told her to text the mate and tell her not be so stupid, but she didn't want to offend her. 60+% down.

There will be plenty of these stories coming out over the next few weeks. Compo faces in the Mirror etc. I wonder how many have lost house deposits and potential knock on effect on housing market...

[AWW]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It could bounce back, I wrote that in one of my other posts this morning. People will panic now and crystallise their losses. If it does then bounce back they will be even more angry with themselves.

I fully expect it to bounce back and for all those burned to stay out of it until close to the next top. Markets hurt as many people as they can.

[Lightscribe]

58 minutes ago, Boon said:

What really is the difference between someone that YOLO's £50k into crypto, than one who YOLO's £50k into tech shares, or YOLO's £50k into new build flats?

The problem is the allocation of assets, not the underlying investment. Putting 90%+ of your net wealth into anything is dumb, putting 90%+ of your net wealth with leverage is extra dumb.

Yet people seem to treat these cases as different. For example the crypto investor is a degenerate, the heavily leveraged property investor is seen as some kind of brave risk taker who 'deserves' his profit.

The trouble is, it seems that there is no shortage of fools out there.

Exactly this. Every generation has their own bubble assets they ‘think’ they understand ‘that can’t lose’ and poo-poo on another’s but at the end of the day it’s not any different.

All it comes down to is capital availability and greed as well as the constant need for excess and assets to compare to others. That maybe the next door neighbours, Bob at the golf club for boomers or insta or TikTok followers that zoomers mistakenly think care for self-validation.

[AWW]

22 minutes ago, Errol said:

Lots of people will still be buying now, thinking it is the bottom (I see it's gone back to 19K+ now. I still think it will ultimately come to rest under $10k.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it down around $3k at some point this year, looking at the last few years of price action.

[Long-game]

17 minutes ago, THEFREEMAN said:

How do you break up with women

even if I only met them 3 times I still start crying when it ends

You move on to the next one or two, there are many nice fireplaces to poker 🤣😉

[Boon]

Just now, AWW said:

One of Mrs AWW's mates put their entire life savings into NIO somewhere near the top. I told her to text the mate and tell her not be so stupid, but she didn't want to offend her. 60+% down.

There will be plenty of these stories coming out over the next few weeks. Compo faces in the Mirror etc. I wonder how many have lost house deposits and potential knock on effect on housing market...

In my view probably not many.

You would have thought the cladding thing might have affected more people here and on paper that is much more painful as they not only have lost money on the value of their flat but also lumbered with extra costs to pay.

I suspect the mechanism is the same, the media and people generally loving milking the bad news cases and exaggerating them as much as possible (cue the 'lost so much money I can't sleep at night')

Fulfills two things I think, for the 'victim' there may be a chance of compensation or free money, for the reader someones misfortune makes them feel a bit smarter for not buying a flat/crypto/having a job (delete as appropriate)

[Virgil Caine]

29 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

56 and only £50k to his name. I suppose he was in a bad position either way, but a multi-bagger on crypto might have given him a retirement. Still, no bouncing back fromt that now for him.

On the bright side having lost all his capital he now qualifies for all means tested benefits.

[reformed nice guy]

I opened a Coinbase account in 2013 and have withdrawn in GBP just a little under 4 times the total that I have put in. I still have some bitcoin and I bought a little bit extra a few days ago at $20,250.

At its peak value of ~$70,000 it was never a high percentage of my assets. I think that unless you are very techy and willing to do it as at least a part time job then it is irresponsible to keep more than 5% (maybe 10% if young) of your wealth stored as crypto.

I am not an expert but I have read the original whitepaper and I am confident on bitcoins role as a trustless store of value for at least the next decade.

[Lightscribe]

1 minute ago, Virgil Caine said:

On the bright side having lost all his capital means he now qualifies for all means tested benefits.

Exactly, pension credit on the horizon too, rent paid for life. I think he’s more savvy than originally thought. Go red or bust (and get supported by the state anyway)