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PropertyLion Index Oct 2021


HousePriceMania
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HousePriceMania
Posted (edited)

Here's the good news for Scotland...guess who has pulled Help To Buy and got rid of the stamp duty cut early

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by HousePriceMania
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HousePriceMania

 

 

We did some analysis on price bands compared to last year. London is mostly static/falling prices and down a bit for number of listings. The > £2m band shows a 7% increase and the number of listings, this is skewing the index for London/UK and I'd image skewing actual sales too 

East Mids/Yorkshire ( the other 2 areas looked at ) show big falls in listing volumes across the board, except top end where listings are up or down significantly less and prices are up. Again skewing everything. In summary, prices for most are not rising, it's a false market
 

 

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HousePriceMania
Posted (edited)

Regarding Yorkshire, that region is skewed with a rise of 10% price rise in properties above £2M and number of listings for that band up 20% while other bands have seen listings down 50% and very little movement YoY

Price wise the band data ( 100K, 200K, 300K etc up to £2M ) is in the range -5% -> + 0.2% yoy if you exclude the top end.

No wonder the numbers look rosy

Edited by HousePriceMania
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HousePriceMania
11 minutes ago, CVG said:

Those YoY listing increases for SE and SW seem really incongruous with the other results. Any thoughts/explanations?

Sorry that's an error, well spotted. I'll correct that.

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With a crooked smile

Is property lion run by that complete bell end from TOS? The one that thinks everyone is a troll and always claims prices are dropping even when they clearly aren't? 

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London reflects what I am seeing - the number of new listings per day is well down on pre-Covid.

The overall quality is worse overall IMO, there are less flats (some are not mortgageable due to cladding) but the good stuff moves quick, which leaves the shit stuff and the overpriced stuff.

Sadly the lack of supply means that the crap stuff is being nibbled. 

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Also to my mind the only thing that is gonna really change this staleness (in the areas that I am looking) is large interest rate increases, or maybe sharp energy price increases which are sustained.

Increased credit tightness just makes people sit tight and not sell. It's like the proverbial dance floor when everyone is on it, everyone piling for the exit at the same time is the panic that generates panic.

Some south-east commuter towns have virtually nothing decent coming on the market, either overpriced or bad. A good property not overpriced is literally SSTC in days.

 

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HousePriceMania
43 minutes ago, Boon said:

London reflects what I am seeing - the number of new listings per day is well down on pre-Covid.

The overall quality is worse overall IMO, there are less flats (some are not mortgageable due to cladding) but the good stuff moves quick, which leaves the shit stuff and the overpriced stuff.

Sadly the lack of supply means that the crap stuff is being nibbled. 

Compared to the rest of the UK and compared to the last 2 years, London supply has held up.  It's the other areas in the UK that have collapsed 50%, worst one is South west, down about 55%.

London average has been driven up by the top end.

From the price band data I looked at for a few areas they showed the same pattern, small salls or increases below < £1M,  bug rises over £1M, skewing the market and the figures.

 

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HousePriceMania
36 minutes ago, Boon said:

Also to my mind the only thing that is gonna really change this staleness (in the areas that I am looking) is large interest rate increases, or maybe sharp energy price increases which are sustained.

 

I think that goes without saying now.

I no longer seeing the BoE raising IRs and still think they will go -ve even with inflation soaring.

Their system is broken.

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HousePriceMania
1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

Is property lion run by that complete bell end from TOS? The one that thinks everyone is a troll and always claims prices are dropping even when they clearly aren't? 

No, it's run by me.

Thanks for your input though, can you get back to cleaning the bogs in your office, thanks.

Stalker Girlfriend Call Me Crazy - YouTube

 

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6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Compared to the rest of the UK and compared to the last 2 years, London supply has held up.  It's the other areas in the UK that have collapsed 50%, worst one is South west, down about 55%.

London average has been driven up by the top end.

From the price band data I looked at for a few areas they showed the same pattern, small salls or increases below < £1M,  bug rises over £1M, skewing the market and the figures.

 

Hi HPM, since you added the band's differentiation we're getting a better view of proceedings.

May I make another suggestion if you're up for it? Rather than strict bands like 100K, 200K, etc, could we try splitting by quartile or quintile (typically SQL functions) to see the dynamics within each proportion of the market. Might just be fun, but might be insightful.

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HousePriceMania
4 minutes ago, CVG said:

Hi HPM, since you added the band's differentiation we're getting a better view of proceedings.

May I make another suggestion if you're up for it? Rather than strict bands like 100K, 200K, etc, could we try splitting by quartile or quintile (typically SQL functions) to see the dynamics within each proportion of the market. Might just be fun, but might be insightful.

I bit like the mean figures, I guess I could do that.

BTW the London mean moved up from 550K to 560K this month with falls in the lower half and rises in the upper.

 

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35 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I bit like the mean figures, I guess I could do that.

BTW the London mean moved up from 550K to 560K this month with falls in the lower half and rises in the upper.

 

Yeah. So, here's the lowest priced 20% of properties in this area, this is how many there are, this is the mean of those properties, and this is how they have changed. Then here's the next 20%, and so on.

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Don Coglione
On 05/10/2021 at 09:59, With a crooked smile said:

Is property lion run by that complete bell end from TOS? The one that thinks everyone is a troll and always claims prices are dropping even when they clearly aren't? 

 

On 05/10/2021 at 11:44, HousePriceMania said:

No, it's run by me.

Thanks for your input though, can you get back to cleaning the bogs in your office, thanks.

Stalker Girlfriend Call Me Crazy - YouTube

 

That'll be a yes, then!

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With a crooked smile
32 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

That'll be a yes, then!

Lol I was thinking of the count not sure its him. 

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