What's the current recommendation for Pension allocations for people who cant follow the deflation thread every day

[F150]

Is it still just to shove it all in a retirement fund targeted for 2055 etc and a general global index tracker and forget about it?

That's what im doing 50% target fund, 50% CASH USD at 6% in my pension and then I have GDX, Global divi ETFs and telecoms in my IRA (ISA equivilent)

Im putting in 55k this year

The deflation thread is good but it seems to be full of NEETs who have loads of investments and can spend all day researching, not for people like me who have a job and struggle to juggle that between panic attacks and knocking myself out on olanzapine every 72 hours

Where can I buy the 20/40/20/20 portfolio

Bogleheads has a portfolio with 25% gold in it as well

 

[BurntBread]

@F150, you're quite an unusual character, and I don't have any idea of your plans and aims for your investments. You're young, yet seem to be putting a very high proportion into a pension, which you won't be able to touch for 30+ years. That makes it very difficult for anyone even to say "in your position, I would ...".

That said, with that amount of money to play with, you can create a very diversified portfolio, and indeed you seem to be going somewhat in that direction.

The general feeling on the deflation thread (and it's just an impression) seems to be that we are in a period of very high risk for a big, and perhaps across-the-board crash, coupled to a debt deflation. Some posters are therefore skewing towards holding a significant proportion (30%, 50%, maybe more) in cash, for the short term (6 months to a year). The hope being that cash is king during a crash and may let people grab bargains, even if it is getting eroded by inflation, despite the interest being paid on deposit accounts. Because of the risk of systemic failure in the UK & Europe (but not in the US), I think people are tucking away a few percent as physical PMs. Not as an investment, but more as insurance against loss of everything else.

All the sectors of interest on that thread seem to be high risk or quite expensive at the moment, but with some subtleties. Gold and silver miners are still historically cheap, but it is not clear whether we will have the big run-up in PMs (or a crash before such a run-up). Oil and gas are probably still great for the long-term, but are not currently cheap. Telecoms have not had the run (yet) we have been hoping for. Potash and base metal miners are expensive, but may become cheap in a crash etc.

If you forced me to give an opinion, I would say:

Precious metal miners: accumulate, but not to a very large percentage of the portfolio.

Oil and gas: hold, but hope for a better price to buy more.

Potash and base metal miners: Perhaps sell, but hope for a buy opportunity later.

Emerging markets: accumulate, as these could be big winners over the next decades. However, again they may have a crash if the US puts them under financial strain, so "dollar cost averaging" through this could be good. The enthusiasm for EM has been a big shift in the thread over recent months.

Asset managers: probably accumulate cautiously as money from real estate comes their way; prefer those with exposure to emerging markets and EM debt.

Telecoms: Many are still good value, so accumulate. They also give good exposure to EM markets.

US banks: Be very cautious with their level of capitalisation, but they may do well as US re-shores manufacturing, so may be worth having a small allocation.

Tobacco: BATS, IMB and Japan Tobacco are not very cheap any more, but should hopefully be safe divi payers, even if you can't expect big increases in capital. They should preserve wealth, however. I think Philip Morris is very debt-heavy, so I have avoided this one.

Defense stocks: I haven't bought these for (perhaps irrational) moral reasons, so haven't looked into them. You might have missed the big gains, but not sure.

Consumer stables: Maybe OK for stability of the portfolio, but need to look at the company finances. No great enthusiasm for these on the thread.

Consumer discretionary: Sell.

Tech stocks: Probably mostly sell, but they haven't been a focus of the thread, apart from some thoughts on shorting individual stocks.

Pharmaceuticals: The opinions may be skewed by the recent shit-show around vaccines (and the suspicion there may be more bad stories to surface). I have mostly avoided for that reason. You will need to do your own research on whether they represent value.

Industrials: Some may be good value as German-based companies are getting whacked because of the fear of de-industrialisation. However, they often have a global footprint, so this punishment may be unfair, leading to decent value. In the US, expect industrials to do well over the cycle, but they are generally very expensive at the moment, so maybe keep on a watch-list.

Bonds (both government and corporate): Avoid as long-term holds. Some people may speculate on treasuries around a crash, but that involves precise market timing, and is not for me.

 

[F150]

1 hour ago, BurntBread said:

@F150, you're quite an unusual character, and I don't have any idea of your plans and aims for your investments. You're young, yet seem to be putting a very high proportion into a pension, which you won't be able to touch for 30+ years. That makes it very difficult for anyone even to say "in your position, I would ...".

That said, with that amount of money to play with, you can create a very diversified portfolio, and indeed you seem to be going somewhat in that direction.

The general feeling on the deflation thread (and it's just an impression) seems to be that we are in a period of very high risk for a big, and perhaps across-the-board crash, coupled to a debt deflation. Some posters are therefore skewing towards holding a significant proportion (30%, 50%, maybe more) in cash, for the short term (6 months to a year). The hope being that cash is king during a crash and may let people grab bargains, even if it is getting eroded by inflation, despite the interest being paid on deposit accounts. Because of the risk of systemic failure in the UK & Europe (but not in the US), I think people are tucking away a few percent as physical PMs. Not as an investment, but more as insurance against loss of everything else.

All the sectors of interest on that thread seem to be high risk or quite expensive at the moment, but with some subtleties. Gold and silver miners are still historically cheap, but it is not clear whether we will have the big run-up in PMs (or a crash before such a run-up). Oil and gas are probably still great for the long-term, but are not currently cheap. Telecoms have not had the run (yet) we have been hoping for. Potash and base metal miners are expensive, but may become cheap in a crash etc.

If you forced me to give an opinion, I would say:

Precious metal miners: accumulate, but not to a very large percentage of the portfolio.

Oil and gas: hold, but hope for a better price to buy more.

Potash and base metal miners: Perhaps sell, but hope for a buy opportunity later.

Emerging markets: accumulate, as these could be big winners over the next decades. However, again they may have a crash if the US puts them under financial strain, so "dollar cost averaging" through this could be good. The enthusiasm for EM has been a big shift in the thread over recent months.

Asset managers: probably accumulate cautiously as money from real estate comes their way; prefer those with exposure to emerging markets and EM debt.

Telecoms: Many are still good value, so accumulate. They also give good exposure to EM markets.

US banks: Be very cautious with their level of capitalisation, but they may do well as US re-shores manufacturing, so may be worth having a small allocation.

Tobacco: BATS, IMB and Japan Tobacco are not very cheap any more, but should hopefully be safe divi payers, even if you can't expect big increases in capital. They should preserve wealth, however. I think Philip Morris is very debt-heavy, so I have avoided this one.

Defense stocks: I haven't bought these for (perhaps irrational) moral reasons, so haven't looked into them. You might have missed the big gains, but not sure.

Consumer stables: Maybe OK for stability of the portfolio, but need to look at the company finances. No great enthusiasm for these on the thread.

Consumer discretionary: Sell.

Tech stocks: Probably mostly sell, but they haven't been a focus of the thread, apart from some thoughts on shorting individual stocks.

Pharmaceuticals: The opinions may be skewed by the recent shit-show around vaccines (and the suspicion there may be more bad stories to surface). I have mostly avoided for that reason. You will need to do your own research on whether they represent value.

Industrials: Some may be good value as German-based companies are getting whacked because of the fear of de-industrialisation. However, they often have a global footprint, so this punishment may be unfair, leading to decent value. In the US, expect industrials to do well over the cycle, but they are generally very expensive at the moment, so maybe keep on a watch-list.

Bonds (both government and corporate): Avoid as long-term holds. Some people may speculate on treasuries around a crash, but that involves precise market timing, and is not for me.

 

out of the 55k, 21.1k i can take out when i leave my job or get sacked/deported from my job, 6.5k of it i can withdraw the contributions any time (roth IRA)

looks like its all fucked then and i should stay with my strats, ive not bought anything for 6 weeks though

only thing i didnt mention is i want to buy Hydrogen/fuel cell stocks as i reckon thats the new meme when EVs tank - HJEN is the etf

also TLT but dont see the point when I can get 6% on cash without the risk of the ETF going down

[PETR4]

I'm deffinitely not a NEET and I don't have time to trade! For that reason I'm mostly invested in funds instead of single line stocks. I've worked in the investment industry so I'm confident the fund managers are making the best of it. I agree with most of the themes of the deflation thread and have positioned accordingly. If it's of interest to @F150 and others, this is my SIPP portfolio by weight. I'm less than 10 years from retirement. Not investent advice etc!

 

Name	Weight	Reason
Guinness Global Energy Fund class Y GBP Acc	30.26%	Energy
BlackRock Natural Resources Growth & Income Fund Class D Acc	26.65%	Resources
HENDERSON SMALLER COS INV TST,ORD GBP0.25(HSL)	12.51%	Hedge of the energy and resources   holdings
WETHERSPOON(J.D.),ORD GBP0.02(JDW)	7.74%	Deflation play
ABRDN PLC,ORD GBP0.1396825396(ABDN)	7.40%	Deflation play
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO,ORD GBP0.25(BATS)	6.29%	Dividends
Fidelity Funds - Latin America Fund W-ACC-GBP	5.38%	Emerging Market play
Standard Life Sustainable Multi Asset (PP) Pension Fund	3.15%	Company pension - lowest fee   investment
POLYMETAL INTL PLC,ORD NPV(POLY)	0.56%	Multi bag gamble
GELION PLC,ORD GBP0.001(GELN)	0.07%	Multi bag gamble

[Boglet]

Is that 'Standard Life Sustainable Multi Asset (PP) Pension Fund' the ESG one that they seem to have started some time last year?

My place moved everyone onto that last October.

 

edit: This one https://library.standardlife.com/LPNL.pdf

Predictably the worst performing of the funds along the theme of the deflation thread, that I've set up to watch as a comparison

[PETR4]

29 minutes ago, Boglet said:

Is that 'Standard Life Sustainable Multi Asset (PP) Pension Fund' the ESG one that they seem to have started some time last year?

My place moved everyone onto that last October.

 

edit: This one https://library.standardlife.com/LPNL.pdf

Predictably the worst performing of the funds along the theme of the deflation thread, that I've set up to watch as a comparison

Yes, that's the one. It's a bag of bolts. I'm forced to invest into it and the choices on Standard Life were all really poor in my opinion. For that reason I picked the one with the lowest fee.

I will revisit the website and try find if there is anything more to my taste

[Don Coglione]

19 hours ago, F150 said:

Is it still just to shove it all in a retirement fund targeted for 2055 etc and a general global index tracker and forget about it?

That's what im doing 50% target fund, 50% CASH USD at 6% in my pension and then I have GDX, Global divi ETFs and telecoms in my IRA (ISA equivilent)

Im putting in 55k this year

The deflation thread is good but it seems to be full of NEETs who have loads of investments and can spend all day researching, not for people like me who have a job and struggle to juggle that between panic attacks and knocking myself out on olanzapine every 72 hours

Where can I buy the 20/40/20/20 portfolio

Bogleheads has a portfolio with 25% gold in it as well

 

If you're going to top yourself, why the fuck are you bothering with a pension?

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

If you're going to top yourself, why the fuck are you bothering with a pension?

Exactly! Just drive to Vegas, go to the first roulette table you come to and put it all on black.

No red.

No black.

No definitely red.

Or maybe black.

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

If you're going to top yourself, why the fuck are you bothering with a pension?

Thats my favourite question to people that talk about climate emergencies.

If the world is ending in 5 to 10 years, why not stop your pension?

[F150]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

If you're going to top yourself, why the fuck are you bothering with a pension?

Leave an inheritance for my Chinese ex GF who I sang nursery rhymes to

[Long-game]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

If you're going to top yourself, why the fuck are you bothering with a pension?

Also why are you on olanzapine for anxiety? poor choice imho with lots of side effects.

[23rdian]

Or do a Nick Cage in Leaving Las Vegas. 

[Ianb78]

How about buying shares in Eli Lilly, manufacturers of Olanzapine? 😂

Btw, Olanzapine must be taken daily for any effect, not on an ad hoc basis 

it’s an antipsychotic, not an anti-anxiety medication, used in conditions such as schizophrenia 

[SpectrumFX]

Don't buy Poly.

 

[F150]

37 minutes ago, Ianb78 said:

How about buying shares in Eli Lilly, manufacturers of Olanzapine? 😂

Btw, Olanzapine must be taken daily for any effect, not on an ad hoc basis 

it’s an antipsychotic, not an anti-anxiety medication, used in conditions such as schizophrenia 

i reckon it fucked my hormones as well, loads of weight gain and ED, possibly mild gyno on one side that has gone now (could have also been covid), and my hairloss has definitely sped up

[Calcutta]

It's Teva that make most of the generic ones I've seen. Make a load of other nasty shit the doctors are pumping into people as well.

[F150]

On 23/01/2023 at 13:55, Boglet said:

Is that 'Standard Life Sustainable Multi Asset (PP) Pension Fund' the ESG one that they seem to have started some time last year?

My place moved everyone onto that last October.

 

edit: This one https://library.standardlife.com/LPNL.pdf

Predictably the worst performing of the funds along the theme of the deflation thread, that I've set up to watch as a comparison

every single one of those companies they excluded i would consider investing in

i reckon if you made a portfolio exclusively of those companies + cash at high interest, youd beat their fund over the next 10 years

 

that BlackRock Gold and General Fund has a 1.75% annual fee - FUCK OFF

[Loki]

On 24/01/2023 at 16:26, F150 said:

every time i have a spack out it feels both liberating and panic inducing when i realise i can no longer receive advice from boomer toff walter mittys on DOSBODS

[Ianb78]

4 hours ago, F150 said:

i reckon it fucked my hormones as well, loads of weight gain and ED, possibly mild gyno on one side that has gone now (could have also been covid), and my hairloss has definitely sped up

Unfortunately it is notorious for increased appetite and weight gain but effective at alleviating psychotic symptoms 👍

[belfastchild]

13 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Don't buy Poly.

 

Now you tell me!

[F150]

anyone got any good ideas for mutual funds that do big divi players

Ive got SCHD SCHY and DVYE in my Roth IRA

in my pension i cant buy stocks or ETFs, only mutual funds