Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[No Duff (troll)]

13 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

well thats the problem,we had a crash which i dont think weve ever been out of we just went to vertualy zero interest rates and they printed billions the only noticable thing for your avarage joe was a drop in house prices which soon recovered petrol droped in price which seems to be be slowly heading back towards 1.45 which it was at around 6-7 years ago.and a few bigish named shops on the hight street crashed or are in trouble and pubs seem quieter,everyone thinks im nuts at work predicting an armagedon type crash

It's an expanding ball being held under the water by more and more unconventional pressure in a topsy turvy world where inflating balls equate with deflation!

We talked and visualised a lot about balls in our advanced economic theory seminars!

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, No Duff said:

It's an expanding ball being held under the water by more and more unconventional pressure in a topsy turvy world where inflating balls equate with deflation!

We talked and visualised a lot about balls in our advanced economic theory seminars!

cant wait until they loose there grip on it,

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, No Duff said:

It's an expanding ball being held under the water by more and more unconventional pressure in a topsy turvy world where inflating balls equate with deflation!

We talked and visualised a lot about balls in our advanced economic theory seminars!

Ball will deflate or explode.

Take you pick.

It's going to be one or the other.

[Option5]

5 minutes ago, No Duff said:

It's an expanding ball being held under the water by more and more unconventional pressure in a topsy turvy world where inflating balls equate with deflation!

We talked and visualised a lot about balls in our advanced economic theory seminars!

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

cant wait until they loose there grip on it,

The question is what way will it go when they do.

If you think this will be a pleasant thing then think about, these sort of events usually in in war or civil unrest

7 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

is it haveing a bad effect though ? those people with 40k cars on pcp for £300 a month arnt feeling any pain yet.come the crash they will but ive been waiting for it for 6 years.no sighns of it yet nothing......

Apart from shops shutting down, growth in homelessness, the British voting to leave the EU, growth in food banks.

There will always be winners, it's the majority you need to look at.

A friend of mine's father in laws business has just gone tits up....the holiday home is up for sale, now he will have to pay for any family holiday...putting pressure on his finances...he could of course not have a holiday...putting pressure on his life style.

I see no end of issues related to this madness, but I am looking.

[No Duff (troll)]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Ball will deflate or explode.

Take you pick.

It's going to be one or the other.

That's old conventional modernist economic thinking.  We live in a post modernist economic utopia.

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The question is what way will it go when they do.

If you think this will be a pleasant thing then think about, these sort of events usually in in war or civil unrest

Apart from shops shutting down, growth in homelessness, the British voting to leave the EU, growth in food banks.

 

You've not been looking, have you ?

if something is free people will abuse it,im not surprised more are homeless the population is riseing by at least 400,000 a year.to me whats comeing is unavoidable ,however its not my makeing i just want the switch fliping and reseting with hopefully house prices finishing up 50% lower.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Going to see a good friend of mine who works for a large american bank in London this weekend.

Will see what they make of it all and report back.

Just now, stokiescum said:

if something is free people will abuse it,im not surprised more are homeless the population is riseing by at least 400,000 a year.to me whats comeing is unavoidable ,however its not my makeing i just want the switch fliping and reseting with hopefully house prices finishing up 50% lower.

House prices might finish 50% lower but you'll have no job and you're savings are worthless....that's not going to help

[No Duff (troll)]

5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You've not been looking, have you ?

I looked eight years ago and have been preparing ever since.  But even my dissonance is not enough to go the last mile.  Such is the human psyche.

[PatronizingGit]

18 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I agree with that, they're masked the depression ( for some ) with their magicked up cash ( look at the t**ts in their leased Q7s and Jags ) but it's having a really bad effect on people and making things pretty unstable.

The Public sector and the housing bubble is THE economy which just recirculates money, as you give more to the people at the top the people at the bottom get less.

As the top gets more and more the imbalance is getting worse, this imbalance is what will cause a crash.

When the next phase of the crash come, and this has always been my worry, the bottom will be left with worthless bits of paper ( numbers on a screen ) while the rich still have all the assets.

Will the assets crash for us to buy with our bits of paper, or will they just go to the moon with money printing and lower IRS ?

The actions of the US  and now the ECB gives me some hope they will be forced to do the right thing, but as of today, right now, these evil c**ts are not going to stop and money is becoming worthless.

 

As far as I can tell we are in the railway mania again. We'll see a 2nd collapse and the banks will be regulated.  People like property portfolio phils actions should be brought to the fore and see him jailed as a scape goat.  A chancellor using OUR money to boost his own investments....it's an easy sell to the masses.

 

One can but hope.

 

 

I wonder if the take advantage of the weak pound and grab a slice of Britain is breaking down...

From 'tother place...

 

Earlier this year...

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-economy-fdi/u-s-britain-led-surprise-fall-in-global-fdi-last-year-u-n-data-shows-idUKKBN1FB2CT?il=0

 

IMO, much of the disastrous economic policies since 1997 (the last time we had a broadly stable current & Trade account situation) has been because they've made up the difference by selling Britain off, bit by bit. We may not be able to pay our way in the world via exports, but we can repatriate the pounds we sent abroad to get imports by selling domestic  property and businesses to foreigners. Things like Abramovich, and Khan wanting to reduce foreign property ownership in London imperil that. 

Of course, there's still a lot to sell to foreigners...schools, prisons, hospitals, roads...the latter IMO is why they want road pricing. Not for any environmental or supply/demand issue, but purely because putting a 10 quid toll on the M25 gives a clear idea of return and makes it easier to sell.

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Going to see a good friend of mine who works for a large american bank in London this weekend.

Will see what they make of it all and report back.

House prices might finish 50% lower but you'll have no job and you're savings are worthless....that's not going to help

i will never be out of work has i do menial type jobs,you cant let phycopaths loose on the streets.my skills are that i have no skills no asperations 

[No Duff (troll)]

13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

House prices might finish 50% lower but you'll have no job and you're savings are worthless....that's not going to help

That's very important.  If you want to get ahead of the game, you really need to get "a head".  That is, be aware of your captive thinking, think the impossible, and plan accordingly.  What is coming may be an insiduous drip drip incremental change or a big bang.  Either way, the end state is a seismic change.  The key is to think very hard about what is a "hard asset".

[King Penda]

24 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The question is what way will it go when they do.

If you think this will be a pleasant thing then think about, these sort of events usually in in war or civil unrest

Apart from shops shutting down, growth in homelessness, the British voting to leave the EU, growth in food banks.

There will always be winners, it's the majority you need to look at.

A friend of mine's father in laws business has just gone tits up....the holiday home is up for sale, now he will have to pay for any family holiday...putting pressure on his finances...he could of course not have a holiday...putting pressure on his life style.

I see no end of issues related to this madness, but I am looking.

has long has mr and mrs joe bloggs ared fed and watered and have facebook a phone and love island they probably wont notice,most of the country is low paid .the indebted on the otherhand wont know whats hit them.the middleclass are not going to riot .the imigrents and poor however are a different kettle of fish.the young will go along with it for shits and giggles.

[King Penda]

11 minutes ago, No Duff said:

That's very important.  If you want to get ahead of the game, you really need to get "a head".  That is, be aware of your captive thinking, think the impossible, and plan accordingly.  What is coming may be an insiduous drip drip incremental change or a big bang.  Either way, the end state is a seismic change.  They key is to think very hard about what is a "hard asset".

thats the problem,however if you guys can see the shitstorm comeing why cant the powers that be,mind china and russia might have they are stockpiling gold.maybe its time to upgrade my stockpile of tinned food up from 3 months worth to 6 months im aready classed has excentric by many who know me.

[No Duff (troll)]

19 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

I wonder if the take advantage of the weak pound and grab a slice of Britain is breaking down...

From 'tother place...

......

I wonder how much that is due to the original (real) owners of the UK leaving the UK in that they now exist elsewhere.  That they have moved themselves offshore and are now moving the UK offshore as well.

10 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

has long has mr and mrs joe bloggs ared fed and watered and have facebook a phone and love island they probably wont notice,most of the country is low paid .the indebted on the otherhand wont know whats hit them.the middleclass are not going to riot .the imigrents and poor however are a different kettle of fish.the young will go along with it for shits and giggles.

Hence the "insidious drip drip". 

[No Duff (troll)]

4 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

thats the problem,however if you guys can see the shitstorm comeing why cant the powers that be,mind china and russia might have they are stockpiling gold.maybe its time to upgrade my stockpile of tinned food up from 3 months worth to 6 months im aready classed has excentric by many who know me.

They can.  Or at least the smart players of that particular group can.  If you look hard by looking less deep but wider, you can see the reactive steps being taken.

Most geniuses were considered eccentric.

To be free, you must first free yourself.

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, No Duff said:

I wonder how much that is due to the original (real) owners of the UK leaving the UK in that they now exist elsewhere.  That they have moved themselves offshore and are now moving the UK offshore as well.

Hence the "insidious drip drip". 

its like chinese water torture though,id rather have chaos for 18 months .still i surpose for the majoraty its better this way and im just being childish wanting it over and done with.

Just now, No Duff said:

They can.  Or at least the smart players of that particular group can.  If you look hard by looking less deep but wider, you can see the reactive steps being taken.

Most geniuses were considered eccentric.

To be free, you must first free yourself.

im a retard not a genius lol.

[PatronizingGit]

38 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Going to see a good friend of mine who works for a large american bank in London this weekend.

Will see what they make of it all and report back.

House prices might finish 50% lower but you'll have no job and you're savings are worthless....that's not going to help

They did that in japan and still have jobs!

 

Work still needs doing, house prices however are, in a rent seeking economy, in my opinion, just a transfer of economic surplus to assets.

[No Duff (troll)]

54 minutes ago, No Duff said:

The key is to think very hard about what is a "hard asset".

So let's think about "hard assets".

Now this is 100% relevant to this thread because this thread runs at two levels, or at least should.  There is the financial nuts and bolts level about how to protect yourself and your family, and even gain, from what is coming.  The other level is more the conceptual level in which you enable yourself to interpret the nuts and bolts to maximum effect and, of equal importance, prepare your mindset and intellectual and social capital for what is coming. 

It's probably easier to discuss what is not a hard asset.  Clearly is it not fiat UK pounds.  And yes we can discuss the somewhat worn concepts of stores of value and the like as did the original thinkers such as Adam Smith.  We can also rush to the "it's precious metals innit" POV.  And so on.  But all of this does just not seem to be enough.  It's tired, limited, and essentially lacking.  To me, I've touched on how I now want to think of things.  What we have seen is the wholesale destruction of economic norms, backed by an intellectual (arguably post modernist) socio-economic group-think.  Our thinking has to "change" (in itself a wholly inadequate word) to address and parallel that.  We indeed need to go back to the original thinkers, get in their minds, absorb their mindset, and alter our thinking of the current rump of the world, as they did in their time.  We all may not have studied PPE (Politics, Philosophy and Economics) at Oxford, but that is exactly what we each now need to do.  They are a cohesive group of disciplines for a reason.

Some of the questions currently circulating in my head which will produce the dividends for me personally: Is a chattel (house, car, sofa, etc) really a hard asset?  If not what is it and it is another essential form of "asset" and how and why?  Does a hard asset have to be physical?  Does a hard asset need to be broadly perceived as being such in order to exist?  If so, besides perception, what else does a hard asset need to exist?  Are these conditional requirements financial, political, social, something else?  Can a hard asset be temporal and if so, what is needed to nurture it, and if not, what is it's natural life-cycle?  Can a skill be a hard asset?  Why?  What kind of skill?  Is your social circle a hard asset?  Why?  And so on.  These questions mush your brain for the good because they enable to build the new thought pathways which will be necessary for freedom, if not survival itself.

Or you can just buy GDX (DYOR)!       

 

[stoobs]

13 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hammond said the government would give the Bank £1.2bn, a sum that would underwrite the £500bn lending pot, but the move would not impact public borrowing because the money would remain in the public sector.

Could this not mean the money is actually earmarked for infrastructure projects?

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

DB.  It's all so hard to believe that we'll see this deflatin event.

Are you sure the 2007/2008 collapse wasnt the deflation event ?

Very good question that ive had to think about as well Count!

My money is still firmly on deflation, if there was a way to inflate out way out of this it would have been done by now.  I think this next crisis will be a credit crisis, when people/companies refuse to give credit to each other as they don't think they'll be paid back.  Pumping more money into the economy and lowering borrowing rates further still will not help this, and may actually make it worse if total borrowing increases further.

Not many companies have enough cash to run if their suppliers wont give them credit....

[No Duff (troll)]

1 hour ago, stoobs said:

Could this not mean the money is actually earmarked for infrastructure projects?

At a arguably slight tangent as it were.  When QE first appeared I said right away "cash is trash".  I made two mistakes - my conditioning prevented me from internalising this enough to take the full required action but, far worse, I did not go on to think what would replace it.

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Very good question that ive had to think about as well Count!

My money is still firmly on deflation, if there was a way to inflate out way out of this it would have been done by now.  I think this next crisis will be a credit crisis, when people/companies refuse to give credit to each other as they don't think they'll be paid back.  Pumping more money into the economy and lowering borrowing rates further still will not help this, and may actually make it worse if total borrowing increases further.

Not many companies have enough cash to run if their suppliers wont give them credit....

pension firms could take a big hit if a few of the big multinations are found to be wearing the emperors new clothes mind.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Going to see a good friend of mine who works for a large american bank in London this weekend.

Will see what they make of it all and report back.

House prices might finish 50% lower but you'll have no job and you're savings are worthless....that's not going to help

Looking forward to ya report...

I wonder if him/she, knows who OWNS the bank of England and federal reserve bank - amazing how many people don't know, even HIGH up in the financial world!

[No Duff (troll)]

18 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Very good question that ive had to think about as well Count!

My money is still firmly on deflation, if there was a way to inflate out way out of this it would have been done by now.  I think this next crisis will be a credit crisis, when people/companies refuse to give credit to each other as they don't think they'll be paid back.  Pumping more money into the economy and lowering borrowing rates further still will not help this, and may actually make it worse if total borrowing increases further.

Not many companies have enough cash to run if their suppliers wont give them credit....

Inflation or deflation, insidious or otherwise, are like fascism versus totalitarianism versus corporatism versus every other "ism".  None of them are nice so likewise best to find a best line of fit through both "ions" even if that ends up just being a probabilistically neutral hedge.  That is, not to play with the cards or in the confines and contexts you have been given.  That in itself is usually a clue you're being played.  Interesting to note, democracy, for all it's faults, is not an "ism".  Think I'll go off and investigate "isms" versus "cracies", after some impressive hard core financial stuff in case you'all think I'm just a fairy!