Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Thorn said:

Scottish Mortgage Trust have been something amazing to watch. Sank a bit today. They leverage up and seem to be heavily into FAANG and Chinese Stocks.

Had thought they might be a good place to  put some. Not so sure now. Not so sure about any trackers or funds any more, full of doubt and not sure I trust any of the stories on most financial websites any more. There seem to be a lot these days advising people to Stay Invested for the Longterm to Win.

I’m wishing I had the confidence to just go for trackers but I keep on sticking with the divi defensives pms and miners for now. 

...anyway that was thought 1 today. 

Thought 2 was Where Did All The Old Cars Go because I saw none.

 

Two on my drive 05 and 06 plates,£300 a year to keep on the road on average.

[Cosmic]

1 hour ago, Thorn said:

Thought 2 was Where Did All The Old Cars Go because I saw none.

How old's old? Couple of <2005 vintage on my drive. Probably be written off if owned by someone who couldn't do the work - labour costs kill cars.

GFs Honda is the last one of its shape and loaded (comparatively...), heated leathers, aircon, sunroof, heated mirrors. Has needed some work on the brakes in the last 3 years and some suspension components, but the running gear I recon will still be going when the rest rusts away.

Mine I'll run until the flywheel or turbo goes, then break for parts. Trying to buy a nice Cat N on the cheap to repair over time to replace it

[leonardratso]

I see quite a few old (03/04/05/06) honda crv's around, they are usually in relatively good nick as well. Dunno if they just dont do much mileage or if honda balls'd up in them years and forgot to build in obselesence/rust.

I always quite liked them, and although a little square they dont even look to have dated too badly at all really (shapewise), was behind a 66 plate one this morning, pretty smart i thought.

 

[Funn3r]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Should i apply?

Are you crazy? They don't want someone to explain to them in plain English they want someone to embed a new approach to risk management viz-a-viz their strategic multi-tiered customer-led paradigm.

[Funn3r]

12 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

I see quite a few old (03/04/05/06) honda crv's around, they are usually in relatively good nick as well. Dunno if they just dont do much mileage or if honda balls'd up in them years and forgot to build in obselesence/rust.

I always quite liked them, and although a little square they dont even look to have dated too badly at all really (shapewise), was behind a 66 plate one this morning, pretty smart i thought.

 

Bloke I know has a 54 plate, black, not a mark on it. If you didn't know anything about cars (i.e. me) you would think it was a couple of years old.

[Van Lady]

I think @DurhamBornhad his sarcasm hat on 

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

I see quite a few old (03/04/05/06) honda crv's around, they are usually in relatively good nick as well. Dunno if they just dont do much mileage or if honda balls'd up in them years and forgot to build in obselesence/rust.

I always quite liked them, and although a little square they dont even look to have dated too badly at all really (shapewise), was behind a 66 plate one this morning, pretty smart i thought.

 

Iv got an 05 Pug 2.0 diesel,starting to get spots of rust inside a few places but nothing on the outside.Did clutch at 80k and new brakes,discs etc last year.This year a brake caliper and a spring.I budget £300 a year for it.Iv had it 10 years now.My van is an 06.Iv had that 2 years and paid £800 for it.Iv spent £180 on that in two years,both just been tested.Van i might only get another year or two out of it.Hopefully it will end up costing me £350 a year over 3 years including buying.I did work it out id spent about £8k for 10 years motoring and that includes a car and a van.

2 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

I think @DurhamBornhad his sarcasm hat on 

If i get time il apply.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Don't know what you chaps are on about in regards to OLD cars?

 

I'm still using my mark 1 Golf C 1285 cc its in MINT condition!

 

cheap insurance cos its classed as a classic car AND cos i do under 1000 miles p/year!

 

one owner and myself ...I will of had it 21 years this Autumn!

 

BTW, Bought a citroen nemo van last year only 5 years old (for a biz project) anyway what a pile of F**** SHIT, when you took any bolt/screw off the thread strips! ...anyway sold after a few moths and knocked the project on the head!

 

Will NEVER EVER sell my old Golf, its like an old pair of reliable slippers!

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

DB, whats the make of your 06 van ?

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

DB, whats the make of your 06 van ?

Fiat Doblo,1.3 diesel.I only do around 3k a year miles in it.I need a van for my business,but as i only want to make the tax allowance i need one that doesnt cost me much.I only use it to pick my stock up from storage and bring it home 6 miles there and back and when i go stargazing up the moors.

[Option5]

1994 Lancia and 1956 Ford Escort.

Both are reliable.

[Thorn]

I love old cars and sitting in my wee paid for 03 beside a new shiny Mini which is Gigantic beside you at lights makes me smile and wonder how much the lad or girl has to pay each month.

But back to reality- I’m looking at a bunch of dividend-paying UK stocks here rather than any trackers and stuff. So if I can put the chunk i had put into the DOW and some trackers into 6-7% -paying defensives with 0.5% fees instead tomorrow , I will. Sure why not.

But ... recently an old friend who used to work in the city of London told me the S&P just sort of always goes up 7% a year and the US normally adds 220k jobs a month. And there’s the odd crash. So get trackers, some bonds and Scottish Mortgage Trust It’s a Beaut, says he.

He said its like clockwork and just ignore crashes and all and put your money to work. I smiled and said fair enough. 

And here I am full of suspicion and drawn to the metals and anybody who could build stuff. harp I am glad I am not the only newbie on here- and I’ve Sibanye, Yamana and a load of this other great stuff too. Some craic.

Glad to get enlightened on here. 

Tomorrow some more 7% defensives. 

Feck the trackers.

[harp]

4 minutes ago, Thorn said:

I love old cars and sitting in my wee paid for 03 beside a new shiny Mini which is Gigantic beside you at lights makes me smile and wonder how much the lad or girl has to pay each month.

But back to reality- I’m looking at a bunch of dividend-paying UK stocks here rather than any trackers and stuff. So if I can put the chunk i had put into the DOW and some trackers into 6-7% -paying defensives with 0.5% fees instead tomorrow , I will. Sure why not.

But ... recently an old friend who used to work in the city of London told me the S&P just sort of always goes up 7% a year and the US normally adds 220k jobs a month. And there’s the odd crash. So get trackers, some bonds and Scottish Mortgage Trust It’s a Beaut, says he.

He said its like clockwork and just ignore crashes and all and put your money to work. I smiled and said fair enough. 

And here I am full of suspicion and drawn to the metals and anybody who could build stuff. harp I am glad I am not the only newbie on here- and I’ve Sibanye, Yamana and a load of this other great stuff too. Some craic.

Glad to get enlightened on here. 

Tomorrow some more 7% defensives. 

Feck the trackers.

Vodafone looks a no brainer to me at 184. If it goes lower I'll get more. DYOR an all that.

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, Thorn said:

I love old cars and sitting in my wee paid for 03 beside a new shiny Mini which is Gigantic beside you at lights makes me smile and wonder how much the lad or girl has to pay each month.

But back to reality- I’m looking at a bunch of dividend-paying UK stocks here rather than any trackers and stuff. So if I can put the chunk i had put into the DOW and some trackers into 6-7% -paying defensives with 0.5% fees instead tomorrow , I will. Sure why not.

But ... recently an old friend who used to work in the city of London told me the S&P just sort of always goes up 7% a year and the US normally adds 220k jobs a month. And there’s the odd crash. So get trackers, some bonds and Scottish Mortgage Trust It’s a Beaut, says he.

He said its like clockwork and just ignore crashes and all and put your money to work. I smiled and said fair enough. 

And here I am full of suspicion and drawn to the metals and anybody who could build stuff. harp I am glad I am not the only newbie on here- and I’ve Sibanye, Yamana and a load of this other great stuff too. Some craic.

Glad to get enlightened on here. 

Tomorrow some more 7% defensives. 

Feck the trackers.

split it and do em both, splits up to you really, i do a lot of spraying and praying, im about 50% in shares (maybe 10 of em), 50% in mutuals/trackers/robot investors, us treasuries in both sets. Overall the cash value isnt much, maybe 10K £, im just trickling in, rather more in cash/prem bonds just waiting - interminably waiting.

 

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Option5 said:

All is not well in Dubai

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-14/the-downfall-of-arif-naqvi-s-abraaj-group-dubai-s-star-investor

Dubai collapsed spectacuarly last time iirc.

WHen you look at the messy trial PE has left in the Western Hemisphere ,it never boded well anywhere else.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Thorn said:

Scottish Mortgage Trust have been something amazing to watch. Sank a bit today. They leverage up and seem to be heavily into FAANG and Chinese Stocks.

Had thought they might be a good place to  put some. Not so sure now. Not so sure about any trackers or funds any more, full of doubt and not sure I trust any of the stories on most financial websites any more. There seem to be a lot these days advising people to Stay Invested for the Longterm to Win.

I’m wishing I had the confidence to just go for trackers but I keep on sticking with the divi defensives pms and miners for now. 

...anyway that was thought 1 today. 

Thought 2 was Where Did All The Old Cars Go because I saw none.

 

Just had a look at the FTSE and it got a kicking today.Builders down...again.

Been looking for overvalued 'what bubble' type stocks to day and the FTSE has quite a good few.Trackers never really been tested for delivering in a down market.

2 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Apologies for boring questions but: I've noticed Vodafone pretty much followed FTSE100 down last month or so, but BT seems to be edging up a little.  Any views on why that would be?  "Good" CEO gone from Vodafone and "bad" CEO gone from BT?

Shares move for a variety of resons,I wouldn't read too much into 10%/20% movements.Especially around divi dates

21 minutes ago, harp said:

Vodafone looks a no brainer to me at 184. If it goes lower I'll get more. DYOR an all that.

Yeah recent ex d.But a business in good shape for a recession and offering growth whilst being a solid defensive as well.

[sancho panza]

Barratts 517 down 20.Strangely that's 20% off 2017 peak

Berkely downa £1 at 38...from 42 last week.

It looks game on to me.

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Barratts 517 down 20.Strangely that's 20% off 2017 peak

Berkely downa £1 at 38...from 42 last week.

It looks game on to me.

I doubt il see house prices in real terms where they are now again.Imagine you took on a HTB over the last few years.No way out for them,negative equity for 20 years,inflation adjusted probably for life in many parts of the country.Didnt Woodford go all in on the builders?

The government need money for the NHS as well,so i doubt putting housing benefit up will be a high priority.

Some UK defensives and telcos still offering great entry points.Can easily see a 9%-11% compounding going forward when taking in the dividends.

 

[sancho panza]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I doubt il see house prices in real terms where they are now again.Imagine you took on a HTB over the last few years.No way out for them,negative equity for 20 years,inflation adjusted probably for life in many parts of the country.Didnt Woodford go all in on the builders?

The government need money for the NHS as well,so i doubt putting housing benefit up will be a high priority.

Some UK defensives and telcos still offering great entry points.Can easily see a 9%-11% compounding going forward when taking in the dividends.

 

I have a worst case scenario for the UK which involves sterling dropping,rates rising,defaults rising leading to credit getting reined in via FRB,all without the umbrella of increased fiscal spending(due to sterling risk).

People laugh when I say starter houses-two up two down-will get back to 3 times salary so £60k in Leicester,that assumes salaries hold.

But then I've been wrong on UK hosuing for 15 years.Lukily done a bit better with stocks ....

[Democorruptcy]

 

The Bank of England will be allowed to provide more than £500bn in lending to the economy without seeking the Treasury’s permission, in a move that reinforces the strength of the UK financial system as Britain prepares to leave the EU.

Announcing the plan at the annual Mansion House dinner for bankers in the City of London on Thursday, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, said the changes would help to improve the resilience of the central bank. It would also help with its “ability to meet its monetary and financial policy objectives in the future”, he said.

Hammond said the government would give the Bank £1.2bn, a sum that would underwrite the £500bn lending pot, but the move would not impact public borrowing because the money would remain in the public sector. The half a trillion pound fund could be accessed by commercial banks for funding, including during credit crunch-style financial crises.
Sign up to our Brexit weekly briefing
Read more

The move also gives Threadneedle Street greater autonomy in lowering interest rates to zero and providing more money to commercial banks during times of stress, without requiring Treasury permission. Despite its independence from the Treasury, the Bank has needed to approach the government in order to expand its support to the economy – including when it announced an emergency funding scheme for banks in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Speaking alongside the chancellor at his penultimate Mansion House dinner before stepping down next year, Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, said the additional capital would significantly increase the amount of money the central bank could lend without seeking financial backing from the Treasury. Although at first it will amount to more than half a trillion pounds, it could rise to over three-quarters of a trillion pounds.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/21/philip-hammond-hands-bank-of-england-new-powers

[Band]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

 

The Bank of England will be allowed to provide more than £500bn in lending to the economy without seeking the Treasury’s permission, in a move that reinforces the strength of the UK financial system as Britain prepares to leave the EU.

Announcing the plan at the annual Mansion House dinner for bankers in the City of London on Thursday, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, said the changes would help to improve the resilience of the central bank. It would also help with its “ability to meet its monetary and financial policy objectives in the future”, he said.

Hammond said the government would give the Bank £1.2bn, a sum that would underwrite the £500bn lending pot, but the move would not impact public borrowing because the money would remain in the public sector. The half a trillion pound fund could be accessed by commercial banks for funding, including during credit crunch-style financial crises.
Sign up to our Brexit weekly briefing
Read more

The move also gives Threadneedle Street greater autonomy in lowering interest rates to zero and providing more money to commercial banks during times of stress, without requiring Treasury permission. Despite its independence from the Treasury, the Bank has needed to approach the government in order to expand its support to the economy – including when it announced an emergency funding scheme for banks in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Speaking alongside the chancellor at his penultimate Mansion House dinner before stepping down next year, Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, said the additional capital would significantly increase the amount of money the central bank could lend without seeking financial backing from the Treasury. Although at first it will amount to more than half a trillion pounds, it could rise to over three-quarters of a trillion pounds.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/21/philip-hammond-hands-bank-of-england-new-powers

Is this some kind of Term Funding Scam, but with no end of term in sight?

[sancho panza]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The Bank of England will be allowed to provide more than £500bn in lending to the economy without seeking the Treasury’s permission, in a move that reinforces the strength of the

The move also gives Threadneedle Street greater autonomy in lowering interest rates to zero and providing more money to commercial banks during times of stress, without requiring Treasury permission. Despite its independence from the Treasury, the Bank has needed to approach the government in order to expand its support to the economy – including when it announced an emergency funding scheme for banks in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Speaking alongside the chancellor at his penultimate Mansion House dinner before stepping down next year, Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, said the additional capital would significantly increase the amount of money the central bank could lend without seeking financial backing from the Treasury. Although at first it will amount to more than half a trillion pounds, it could rise to over three-quarters of a trillion pounds.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/21/philip-hammond-hands-bank-of-england-new-powers

Frightening.Especially given how well TFS,HTB1+2,QE,ZIRp etc worked out last time for real wages.Velocity will just drop some more.

Not sure they can save asset prices this time.

Sort of talk that makes goldbugs.

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Frightening.Especially given how well TFS,HTB1+2,QE,ZIRp etc worked out last time for real wages.Velocity will just drop some more.

Not sure they can save asset prices this time.

Sort of talk that makes goldbugs.

For a few years I've been calling it a governbankment instead of a government, suggesting there's no line between banks and government. This move is totally undemocratic. What's the point of the Treasury now? The Chancellor of the Exchequer is head of the Treasury but now the Bank of England can bypass them. Nobody we voted for has any say in banks lending taxpayer's money at a ratio of 150:1 (I think it's using up to £5bn for £750bn lending, not 625:1 which would be the earlier reported £1.2bn for £750bn)

 

[A_P]

So more of the same, keep piling into index trackers and might as well leverage up with BTL . No end in site....instead of kicking the can down the road they've gone and given it a volley.

[Democorruptcy]

Here's the paperwork for the new Financial relationship between the Treasury and the Bank of England

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/financial-relationship-between-the-treasury-and-the-bank-of-england

The Treasury is committed to propping up the Bank's capital. Though the capital requirement for the lending seems ridiculously low.

Term Funding Scheme liability off the governbankment's books and now shifted to the Bank.