Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Is there any chance that instead of reflation we get "slumpflation" where the economy falls but inflation rises?

Yes,but when we talk about deflation,what we mean is a credit deflation.That will hit asset prices hard.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No you buy the ADRs,they perform just the same over the short term.It looks like a few percent both ways,but that is the currency swings.

OK, Gotcha!

[darkmarket]

21 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Do the hookers give out credit for their services, essentially for tight wad Brits ?

That is quite a niche, I'm sure someone's filled it though.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

55 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Do the hookers give out credit for their services, essentially for tight wad Brits ?

Where do you swipe the card ?

[darkmarket]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Where do you swipe the card ?

This is why contactless has its limits.

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Do the hookers give out credit for their services, essentially for tight wad Brits ?

Can you collect Prossie Points with their loyalty card? 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

45 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Can you collect Prossie Points with their loyalty card? 

When you get 10 warts you get a  free trip to the clinic

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

When you get 10 warts you get a  free trip to the clinic

free hot reverse umbrella with every cocktail purchased.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Anyway, getting back to the serious stuff.....

 

Plummet is today's word.  Plummet

City house prices plummet as London market continues to cool

http://www.cityam.com/287740/city-house-prices-plummet-london-market-continues-cool

 

Tomorrow's is substantial ,

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/falling-london-house-prices-and-hike-in-supply-puts-buyers-in-the-driving-seat-a121416.html

 

But more substantial falls have been witnessed in Hackney (3.7 per cent), Hammersmith and Fulham (3.9 per cent), and Ealing (4.5 per cent).

 

 

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Anyway, getting back to the serious stuff.....

 

Plummet is today's word.  Plummet

City house prices plummet as London market continues to cool

http://www.cityam.com/287740/city-house-prices-plummet-london-market-continues-cool

 

Tomorrow's is substantial ,

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/falling-london-house-prices-and-hike-in-supply-puts-buyers-in-the-driving-seat-a121416.html

 

But more substantial falls have been witnessed in Hackney (3.7 per cent), Hammersmith and Fulham (3.9 per cent), and Ealing (4.5 per cent).

 

 

We require disastrous and epic, but tumultuous would be nice.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

We require disastrous and epic, but tumultuous would be nice.

That's next weeks word

[leonardratso]

wonder if syphilitic will ever make it into the housing press.

(maybe to describe some landlords/tenants).

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Reflation cycle stuff this.Politics has moved to a point where inflation isnt a problem.The US will inflate,Chine will have to (through the One Belt one Road mostly).Emerging market currencies are being hit hard.

Inevitable given UST rates and $ moving North.

I think this will be an epic deflation,all the worse for the fact that it should have occured in 2008 which would have suited the man on the street more.

The CB's have taken a global debt problem and solved it with an even bigger global debt problem.

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I buy the ADRs.I bought Sibanye today.Harmony im down around 7% on.i have room for a few more of them,but il wait.

It should be noted the Chief exec of Eldorado Gold bought another 100k shares last week.PM execs are all buying shares,housing execs selling them.

Where do you get your insider info on the Goldies.

Agreed on the UK builders.I posted something,here or on ToS about the Berkeley boys offloading £8mn over the last year.And that was before their spammer hit the thread telling us how bright Pidgeley is.Yep,they're that switched on their net sellers of their own stock.

[sancho panza]

On 08/06/2018 at 22:53, sancho panza said:

Nice to see you here Bricks.

 

On a separate note,had a quick look at Director selling and guess what..

Berkeley directors offloaded £100mn + of stock.Barratts have shifted £8mn........

https://uk.webfg.com/index/FTSE_100/director-deal

ApologiesI got my figures wrong.

.Berekely £100mn Barratts £8mn .

Where's the astroturfer?

[sancho panza]

On 10/06/2018 at 04:51, sancho panza said:

Thanks for the heads up CV,interesting piece.90% of curretnt profits from US

I just can't see anything going wrong when you have a chart like this

 

 

 

Ashtead down 5% today

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ashtead-group-results/ashtead-profit-rises-as-hurricanes-harvey-irma-boost-equipment-demand-idUKKBN1JF0L2?il=0

(Reuters) - British equipment rental company Ashtead Group Plc (AHT.L) on Tuesday posted a full-year pretax profit that missed market expectations, with rental revenue growth slowing in the final quarter of its fiscal year.

Shares of the company fell more than 8 percent to a two-year low in morning trading on the London Stock Exchange.

The company also bumped up its share buyback programme to a minimum of 600 million pounds from the previous target of at least 500 million pounds it announced in December. '

 

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Gordon Bennett ...the pound is collapsing - intra day low 1.31500 !

Anyone here short it when it did a double top @ round 1.43000 ?

I should of dusted down my IG acc...PROBLEM is I've been burnt to MANY times ha

Oh F*** the chart looks extremely bearish...(I was hopping for it to go back to 1.43 area!)

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Inevitable given UST rates and $ moving North.

I think this will be an epic deflation,all the worse for the fact that it should have occured in 2008 which would have suited the man on the street more.

The CB's have taken a global debt problem and solved it with an even bigger global debt problem.

Where do you get your insider info on the Goldies.

Agreed on the UK builders.I posted something,here or on ToS about the Berkeley boys offloading £8mn over the last year.And that was before their spammer hit the thread telling us how bright Pidgeley is.Yep,they're that switched on their net sellers of their own stock.

https://www.realistinvestor.com/2018/06/14/eldorado-gold-corp-eld-director-george-raymond-burns-purchases-80637-shares-of-stock.html

You can get alerts on them all from there.

The deflation will hit some sectors hugely,some not much at all.In the UK house builders and houses will see most of the wealth destruction probably.Most people have all/most of their wealth in property,many expecting to downsize or equity release rather than have a pension.These people have now mostly talked their children into massive debt as well with gifts etc.Now they will see their equity evaporate,plus the deposit they gifted their kids,plus what they put,plus the negative equity.They wont be able to take advantage as they wont be able to sell what they have.

Leveraged BTL is going to suffer epic pain.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Gordon Bennett ...the pound is collapsing - intra day low 1.31500 !

Anyone here short it when it did a double top @ round 1.43000 ?

I should of dusted down my IG acc...PROBLEM is I've been burnt to MANY times ha

Oh F*** the chart looks extremely bearish...(I was hopping for it to go back to 1.43 area!)

 

We shorted it by buying IBTL,covered all the falls so far.Nobody else in the market said pound up from $1.22 to $1.41 then down.18 months out we called that.It was the best sterling call in the market period.I locked my containers in this year at $1.41 as well so can turn the screw on my competitors 

Only call we are behind on is gold (right direction but nowhere near where we saw),still see $1450 and maybe $1560.If the goldies can run into the back end of this year that would be perfect.

 

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.realistinvestor.com/2018/06/14/eldorado-gold-corp-eld-director-george-raymond-burns-purchases-80637-shares-of-stock.html

You can get alerts on them all from there.

The deflation will hit some sectors hugely,some not much at all.In the UK house builders and houses will see most of the wealth destruction probably.Most people have all/most of their wealth in property,many expecting to downsize or equity release rather than have a pension.These people have now mostly talked their children into massive debt as well with gifts etc.Now they will see their equity evaporate,plus the deposit they gifted their kids,plus what they put,plus the negative equity.They wont be able to take advantage as they wont be able to sell what they have.

Leveraged BTL is going to suffer epic pain.

 

Hey db, the last couple of times we have been post EXACTLY at the same time!

 

Yep bought IBTL a couple of weeks ago, AND its UP today  also 2 weeks ago bought Britannia silver coins from coininvest.
have started buying silver @ BV.

 

I reckon in 2025 when this unfolds - I'll tip off the film makers of the BIG SHORT about this thread, and i expect they offer ya a HUGE cash incentive for an interview...would be it OK for me to be ya agent? As i do consider myself a bit of an Arthur Daley type lol

 

R.I.P George Cole (for the young ones here...aka Arthur Daley)

 

 

[Gordie Lastchance]

As part of my learnings since joining this site, I had the Dow Jones open online in front of me at the bell. It went straight to red and some! As I write, it's down 1.35% or 338 points. If things stay as they are, it's on course for its sixth straight daily drop, its longest losing streak in 15 months. All to do with trade wars, so they say.

What do you folks say?

 

[Majorpain]

22 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

What do you folks say? 

Its fucked mate.

[Gordie Lastchance]

21 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Its fucked mate.

I've read page after page and gone to site after site to get my head round the whole investment/markets etc business.

Your response is brief, to the point and no doubt said with your reading of the situation. 

Why didn't I come to you earlier?! Hee hee.

[leonardratso]

42 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Its fucked mate.

TL;DR, be more succinct

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

As part of my learnings since joining this site, I had the Dow Jones open online in front of me at the bell. It went straight to red and some! As I write, it's down 1.35% or 338 points. If things stay as they are, it's on course for its sixth straight daily drop, its longest losing streak in 15 months. All to do with trade wars, so they say.

What do you folks say?

This thread is about long term cycles, who cares about a few days slightly up or down.

[sancho panza]

Even more impressive over three years.