Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[A_P]

14 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Sorry to go off-topic, but does anyone know if ii (Interactive Investor) will accept a one-off contribution to a SIPP (not a transfer of pension) of around £70/80k without consulting an IFA?

My business was going to make a one-off contribution to workplace pension and then I was going to transfer it out to a SIPP, but instead it just seems easier to avoid workplace pension fees to transfer funds straight to a SIPP instead.

 

Decided on ii after having a look around - on the transfer form they've asked whether I've consulted an IFA, and I don't intend to - will that stop such a transfer (simple cash contribution of around £80k) going ahead?

 

Regards

You probably can't transfer in that much via the online portal because it will exceed the annual allowance. Download the SIPP Contribution form and there is a box you can tick:

"These payments will exceed my Annual Allowance in the current tax year and I am utilising some, or all, of my available Carry Forward Allowance from the previous three tax years."

[DurhamBorn]

12 hours ago, kibuc said:

I really need to pick your brains on this. I just returned from M&S and Waitrose, which close at 9pm and 10pm, respectively. Not a single reduced item in the former, a single packet of coocked ham reduced by a measly 20% in the latter. Dropped in to Sainsbury's on my way back home, they close at 10pm, managed to find to small pieces of beef loin reduced by 33%.

My wife went to a nearby Tesco Extra last Saturday, they open until midnight so she went 10:30-ish. Nothing, nought, nada. There's also Morrisons in a cycling distance, haven't checked it our yet.

Wrong days? Wrong hours? Wrong stores?

You have a 2 minute window in each store.If your not there in that 2 minute window you get nothing.Last night in Tesco i got a caggage 10p,sprouts,10p,turnip 13p,mangtout 12p,baby corn 11p,4 chicken breast fillets £1,finest seeded loaf 24p,Finest 5% Steak Mince 72p.So mince and onion dinner tonight for 3 £1.10.Then two days a chicken curry and a sweet and sour chicken with baby corn and mangtout.

Tesco is roughly 7pm,Sainsbury roughly 7.10pm,Asda 6.15pm,M&S roughly 6.45/7.00pm.

If your not in as they put them out you wont get much unless its a day with massive amounts.

[Lightscribe]

I’ll just add, that Iceland on their fresh section is usually about 7pm also, but they only ever go down 50%. I occasionally get chicken breasts and steak mince etc, but always find pork medallions and chops. That maybe down to being a religious thing is my area but it suits me as my freezer is full.

[DurhamBorn]

Ok,i finished off building a PM portfolio for my dad last night.He wanted 12% of his portfolio in PM miners.They arent all exact 2%,some are 1.5% some 2.5% ect (HMY biggest at 2.6%).I bought from miners who are showing good technical support (Yamana etc) and ones that look like they might snap back very fast (oversold,HMY NGD etc) if we are at an inflection point in the complex.In my own portfolio i own these and a couple of others,

Harmony Gold (HMY) $1.56

Yamana Gold (YRI) $3.86

Sibanye Gold (SBGL) $2.42

New Gold (NGD) $2.06

Sandstorm Gold (SSL) $5.91

Endeavor Silver Corp (EDR) $4.10

If anyone was wanting to invest £10k in the space thats the portfolio id advise.Its a risky portfolio of course as i picked the stocks that i think will do very well IF we enter a PM metals/miners bull market.If we dont there will probably be pain in the portfolio.However its a risk/reward situation.DYOR etc etc,not individual advice etc etc,see an IFA to pay for his fees etc etc.

 

[A_P]

12 hours ago, kibuc said:

I really need to pick your brains on this. I just returned from M&S and Waitrose, which close at 9pm and 10pm, respectively. Not a single reduced item in the former, a single packet of coocked ham reduced by a measly 20% in the latter. Dropped in to Sainsbury's on my way back home, they close at 10pm, managed to find to small pieces of beef loin reduced by 33%.

My wife went to a nearby Tesco Extra last Saturday, they open until midnight so she went 10:30-ish. Nothing, nought, nada. There's also Morrisons in a cycling distance, haven't checked it our yet.

Wrong days? Wrong hours? Wrong stores?

It's probably dependent on your local store but my Waitrose is/was* 6.30pm in the week, saturday (anywhere from 5p-7pm), sunday (2ish). Now having said that things appear to be changing particulary this week.

In regards to M & S, the only time i've seen heavy discounts is Sunday, circa 1.30pm. All I can say is good luck if it's like my local one. The old biddies have that one cornered and they dont like new people encroaching. It's quite disturbing to watch them in action. Really if SHTF properly these old dears would quite happily bash you over the head to get the last pint of milk

*circa a year ago my Waitrose started this new method of reduction. They had a dedicted section in an aisle. This would be rammed first thing with reductions, however they were only single sticker, which really only brought it inline with what I would call acceptble full pricing. Then around the times above what was left (probably 10%) they would yellow sticker another time plus add in the reduced sandwiches and other bits from around the store.  Well about 3 or 4 weeks ago they removed the section, and appeared to go back to the previous method , which meant having to go round all the store to find the items.

This week there has been no double sticker reductions on meat. Picked up a few vegs items on heavy discount. Because I live round the corner and I'm a sad git, I've popped in a few times over the evenings to do a recce and nothing. So last night after having a few beers I pop in there at around 7pm still nothing. So I ask the young chap marking down when is he going to do the big discounts and he tells me 8pm. Well the store is always dead from 7pm and a ghost town by 8pm and closes at 9pm. Can't see how they will shift the items if marking down then. Overall the store seems to be stocked less at the moment, usually mountains of discounted bread and bakery items, yet hardly any full priced bread on the shelves. Also no soda of potatoe bread all week, which is pissing me off . With the free coffees from the cafe going, and the announcment on the JL profit, perhaps there's a shakeup on the cards.

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

I’ll just add, that Iceland on their fresh section is usually about 7pm also, but they only ever go down 50%. I occasionally get chicken breasts and steak mince etc, but always find pork medallions and chops. That maybe down to being a religious thing is my area but it suits me as my freezer is full.

50% is still a good saving on things like chicken breasts and mince i think.I usually get 75% at Tesco,Sainsbury etc,but do sometimes pick up things with 50% or even 30% off in other places.A large fresh chicken the other day from £4 to £2.80 for instance.Still a good buy and a good saving.Iv never found Icelands times,i have one of them next to me as well (i have every store apart from Waitrose within 1 mile,most withing 300 metres).

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ok,i finished off building a PM portfolio for my dad last night.He wanted 12% of his portfolio in PM miners.They arent all exact 2%,some are 1.5% some 2.5% ect (HMY biggest at 2.6%).I bought from miners who are showing good technical support (Yamana etc) and ones that look like they might snap back very fast (oversold,HMY NGD etc) if we are at an inflection point in the complex.In my own portfolio i own these and a couple of others,

Harmony Gold (HMY) $1.56

Yamana Gold (YRI) $3.86

Sibanye Gold (SBGL) $2.42

New Gold (NGD) $2.06

Sandstorm Gold (SSL) $5.91

Endeavor Silver Corp (EDR) $4.10

If anyone was wanting to invest £10k in the space thats the portfolio id advise.Its a risky portfolio of course as i picked the stocks that i think will do very well IF we enter a PM metals/miners bull market.If we dont there will probably be pain in the portfolio.However its a risk/reward situation.DYOR etc etc,not individual advice etc etc,see an IFA to pay for his fees etc etc.

 

Hi DB, do you still have the view that gold may run to 1450 then drop back to around 900 before entering the bull market, if so would you reduce the holdings when gold approached 1400 and buy back in.

 

[Lavalas]

DB (and everyone else obviously) what’s your current thinking on IBTL? I’ve made small gains on it but appreciate it’s role is more about return of investment right now. I am in for about 7% of my portfolio (but it’s a much larger ‘active’ percentage when you discount deposit funds). Basically I’ve got an itchy finger and want to see if I can make that money work a bit better for me now. Is it a flight to the dollar as a bust hits that we think might see bigger gains in treasuries (ie there might be scope to get out and back in if I was ok with that risk). Cheers for your thoughts.

[Lavalas]

1 hour ago, Admiral Pepe said:

In regards to M & S, the only time i've seen heavy discounts is Sunday, circa 1.30pm. All I can say is good luck if it's like my local one. The old biddies have that one cornered and they dont like new people encroaching. It's quite disturbing to watch them in action. Really if SHTF properly these old dears would quite happily bash you over the head to get the last pint of milk 

Get some decent discounts at my local M&S in the week just before 7pm (shuts at 8pm) but you definitely need to be there and ready to grab stuff as the woman reduces it because it goes straight away. I’ve even seen some people take stuff they’ve found that will be going out of date but hasn’t yet been reduced to the woman to get a sticker. Basically doing half their job for them. It’s tough out there 

Had most success with the bakery. You’ll get French sticks and loafs reduced from a quid to 10p that are still really fresh.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You have a 2 minute window in each store.If your not there in that 2 minute window you get nothing.Last night in Tesco i got a caggage 10p,sprouts,10p,turnip 13p,mangtout 12p,baby corn 11p,4 chicken breast fillets £1,finest seeded loaf 24p,Finest 5% Steak Mince 72p.So mince and onion dinner tonight for 3 £1.10.Then two days a chicken curry and a sweet and sour chicken with baby corn and mangtout.

Tesco is roughly 7pm,Sainsbury roughly 7.10pm,Asda 6.15pm,M&S roughly 6.45/7.00pm.

If your not in as they put them out you wont get much unless its a day with massive amounts.

LOVING THIS!

 

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ok,i finished off building a PM portfolio for my dad last night.He wanted 12% of his portfolio in PM miners.They arent all exact 2%,some are 1.5% some 2.5% ect (HMY biggest at 2.6%).I bought from miners who are showing good technical support (Yamana etc) and ones that look like they might snap back very fast (oversold,HMY NGD etc) if we are at an inflection point in the complex.In my own portfolio i own these and a couple of others,

Harmony Gold (HMY) $1.56

Yamana Gold (YRI) $3.86

Sibanye Gold (SBGL) $2.42

New Gold (NGD) $2.06

Sandstorm Gold (SSL) $5.91

Endeavor Silver Corp (EDR) $4.10

If anyone was wanting to invest £10k in the space thats the portfolio id advise.Its a risky portfolio of course as i picked the stocks that i think will do very well IF we enter a PM metals/miners bull market.If we dont there will probably be pain in the portfolio.However its a risk/reward situation.DYOR etc etc,not individual advice etc etc,see an IFA to pay for his fees etc etc.

 

 

I rather watch paint dry than talk to an IFA!

 

Besides we're getting your EXPERT knowledge, PLUS we are getting GREAT entertainment on bargain hunting & living frugally!

 

NO IFA can supply that!

 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You have a 2 minute window in each store.If your not there in that 2 minute window you get nothing.Last night in Tesco i got a caggage 10p,sprouts,10p,turnip 13p,mangtout 12p,baby corn 11p,4 chicken breast fillets £1,finest seeded loaf 24p,Finest 5% Steak Mince 72p.So mince and onion dinner tonight for 3 £1.10.Then two days a chicken curry and a sweet and sour chicken with baby corn and mangtout.

Tesco is roughly 7pm,Sainsbury roughly 7.10pm,Asda 6.15pm,M&S roughly 6.45/7.00pm.

If your not in as they put them out you wont get much unless its a day with massive amounts.

Don't forget the energy cost of the cooking. Turkish style food is good for this, roast a leg of lamb and mountains of veg at the same time (peppers, aubergines, tomatoes, courgettes, onions, etc). then you can serve this cold with salad and bread for a few days, no need to turn the oven on again.

[Viceroy]

Hello everyone, I've come over from ToS and still immensely enjoy the intelligent info and banter on this thread!

 

I subscribe to a few things and have heard Miles Thompson (Lara Exploration) speak before on commodity cycles, miners, precious and base metals etc.  Forward to 17mins till the end and listen to his insights as to where he thinks we are in the cycle (37 mins: just off the bottom) + other things (mostly Q&A at the end). 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skl4kcO6T1U

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

Hi DB, do you still have the view that gold may run to 1450 then drop back to around 900 before entering the bull market, if so would you reduce the holdings when gold approached 1400 and buy back in.

 

Yes,i still have the same gold target $1450,maybe $1530 and then a fall back.However im not sure on if i sell etc yet or not.Its highly likely i would sell a lot if they ran up.Lets hope we are having that talk later in the year.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

DB (and everyone else obviously) what’s your current thinking on IBTL? I’ve made small gains on it but appreciate it’s role is more about return of investment right now. I am in for about 7% of my portfolio (but it’s a much larger ‘active’ percentage when you discount deposit funds). Basically I’ve got an itchy finger and want to see if I can make that money work a bit better for me now. Is it a flight to the dollar as a bust hits that we think might see bigger gains in treasuries (ie there might be scope to get out and back in if I was ok with that risk). Cheers for your thoughts.

Personal choice really.I see it as part of my portfolio for this part of the cycle.If it returns me 10% over a year id be very happy.I already cashed a few to buy some Vod in the low 1.80s.IBTL up 10%+ and Vod down 17% in the same time is exactly what i wanted.

[DurhamBorn]

30 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Don't forget the energy cost of the cooking. Turkish style food is good for this, roast a leg of lamb and mountains of veg at the same time (peppers, aubergines, tomatoes, courgettes, onions, etc). then you can serve this cold with salad and bread for a few days, no need to turn the oven on again.

Yes very good point.Im more and more cooking two days at once.A lot depends on what i pick up reduced.I have a good range in the freezer and get out whatever goes with what iv picked up.Getting two peppers for 6p and the mangtout and baby corn for a few pence means curry and thats a good one to cook two days worth,2nd lot just marinates even more.I see learning to cook healthy meals out of yellow sticker items (and some parts full price,but cheap anyway) as my no 1 important skill 

[Lavalas]

36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Personal choice really.I see it as part of my portfolio for this part of the cycle.If it returns me 10% over a year id be very happy.I already cashed a few to buy some Vod in the low 1.80s.IBTL up 10%+ and Vod down 17% in the same time is exactly what i wanted.

Thanks DB, that’s useful insight. I’m up 7% in it so far and you can’t grumble at that. I’ll ponder some more 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Thanks DB, that’s useful insight. I’m up 7% in it so far and you can’t grumble at that. I’ll ponder some more 

And remember about 1/4% a month interest/coupon.

[Lavalas]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

And remember about 1/4% a month interest/coupon.

Good point, I had absolutely forgotten about the coupon. Be nice to get some more divi payers. Too many Canadian miners at the minute

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Lavalas said:

Good point, I had absolutely forgotten about the coupon. Be nice to get some more divi payers. Too many Canadian miners at the minute

Im actually quite pleased with my re-building my dividend portfolio.BT and Vod,Imperial at £23,(sold a very long term holding around £38).Go Ahead,added Stagecoach last week,Drax that i sold due to a 45% increase.Royal Mail i sold a few after a 50% increase but holding the rest.Iv added some New River Reit and a few Brown Group as well.Retail sector i know,but i like the management teams at both and think they are undervalued once they get through these difficult few years.,Card Factory another retail stock,but very low capital needs and fantastic cash generation.There are risks with that one,but they have a fantastic niche they should be able to control (a card priced at 99p up to £1.10 would increase profits by about 25%)I do expect a general market sell off,but some of these stocks are trading down 70% from their highs and im happy to move in at those levels.Long way to go,but happy with what i have for the longer term at the prices.

Iv been more busy with my dads portfolio.He sold out of an Asian fund and India fund i put him into that had done about 400% and wanted me to build him a second portfolio in his ISA with the proceeds that contains UK cyclical stocks with all or most domestic focus,telcos and Imperial and a PM miner section.Iv pretty much finished it now though there is some capital left for top up,and a good dividend flow on top.Wait until he sees the swings in the miners 

[Van Lady]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes very good point.Im more and more cooking two days at once.A lot depends on what i pick up reduced.I have a good range in the freezer and get out whatever goes with what iv picked up.Getting two peppers for 6p and the mangtout and baby corn for a few pence means curry and thats a good one to cook two days worth,2nd lot just marinates even more.I see learning to cook healthy meals out of yellow sticker items (and some parts full price,but cheap anyway) as my no 1 important skill 

Another very good point! Source the reduced stuff then freeze it while continually building a personal portfolio of top class meals to enjoy according to your bounty!

I’m a slow cooker fan for curry, bolognaise sauce, stew, cooking e.g. brisket. I’ve used it for years so am an expert re timing. Some things I’ll finish off in the oven eg Chinese style pork ribs are fabulous after slow cook then ten minutes or so in the oven.

In my smallish Scottish rural town I get all my half price meat, chicken and fish supplemented with veg salad on near enough a daily basis. Reductions are mainly at opening time but an assistant told me sometimes there are reductions befor closing time. I go at 8am or just after it’s a rare day that there’s nowt. Ideal time for me taking dogs on first walk. Aldi less than ten minute walk away. To date I haven’t had to go in the evening because there’s more than I can buy available thats ample for me and my son plus occasional extra folk for a meal.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

And remember about 1/4% a month interest/coupon.

That’s a good point. It must have gone ex div last week. Dividend cheque should be winging it’s way to me soon

[Majorpain]

32 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That’s a good point. It must have gone ex div last week. Dividend cheque should be winging it’s way to me soon

Mine went in end of the week, up around 4% overall ATM so not a bad return for 6 months.

[Funn3r]

23 hours ago, kibuc said:

 

Wrong days? Wrong hours? Wrong stores?

Not really a fan of co-op but near me they are by far the best for "Still Fresh" reduced stickered things. Also they always go for it if you show them something reduced and say can you reduce this a bit more because xyz? (Make up some reason like it's a bit discoloured or something.) Got 4 lemons for 29p this morning. 

[invalid]

Went into tescos the other evening and noticed a very large queue of people outside the cafe area (which was closed for the evening). There was a member of staff there and one of those pull out barriers and a sign saying please queue here. On the way out I took a closer look and was surprised that it was a queue for the reduced items and the member of staf was only allowing one person at a time to look. I did wonder if they also restricted how much any one person could buy. There must have been around 20 people in the queue.

Also, our local Tescos express now has a full time security guard, I asked why (I live in a relatively nice area) and was told that the amount of theft was now so bad it justified a full time guard.

Round my way the reduced items is slim pickings nowdays. Our Asda used to be quite good, good reductions and things that could be frozen.

And hello everyone, like so many others I was a long time lurker on ToS (at least a decade) and only signed up at ToS for DBs thread. Shame as ToS in the old days was great but recently its turned into a sad old swamp so I've moved over here to the land of milk and honey, but only if its yellow stickered!

[sancho panza]

On 29/06/2018 at 12:46, MvR said:

Been chatting to my investor friend again.  He mentioned this guy as a someone worth listening to when it comes to precious ( and non precious ) metals.  He runs some funds too, which may be available depending on your broker.

 

Some really good advice in there particuarly about buying the miners with bigger reserves.