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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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7 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

15 years from now there will be huge swathes of people retiring and finding the future for them is poverty, they've no idea at all. Interesting to see that a lot of very well educated people fall into this category

I think part of the issue is that we now have multiple generations that have become accustomed to state benefits, whether these be universal credit or pensions. As a result people think that given a worse case scenario the state will step in and provide (a reasonable living) for them..I think they are going to find out in the future that this will not be the case.

Don't get me wrong regarding my previous statement, I was as ignorant as the rest (although I was making some pension provision), it's only in the last five years that I have become far more financially aware via sites such as this (and posters generosity with advice) and reading around the subject...I now realize some of the missed opportunities this ignorance has cost me, but it has also allowed me to plan financially for my old age rather than hope for the best.

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1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

I think part of the issue is that we now have multiple generations that have become accustomed to state benefits, whether these be universal credit or pensions. As a result people think that given a worse case scenario the state will step in and provide (a reasonable living) for them..I think they are going to find out in the future that this will not be the case.

The slow introduction of benefits for everyone has killed this, and other, countries.  It has distorted incentives, changed the industrial dynamic, driven (im)migration and produced a subclass of feckless.  I'd love to set up a cult, where the young are told of this long term deception and go on 'benefits strike' -- refusing to do things that they're driven to do only because of the benefits culture.  Don't buy houses using government incentives, don't work for low wages propped up by tax credits, don't take higher education based on a strange 'not a benefit, promise' student loan.  But they won't do such a thing, as they're all more brainwashed than everyone else -- albeit that everyone has a chance to red-pill as soon as they're far enough away from the education system.

The way that successive governments have each doubled down on welfare-like systems to the extent that the 'honest man' has no choice but to accept some government cash fills me with horror.  Horror with the way that an individual's labour has been devalued in this way; horror in the way that big government has the ability now to manipulate entire populations with a simple 'tax credit' decision.

And horror with the realisation that there is now no way to get rid of this system without extraordinary pain for everyone*.

[* and that's everyone.  eg, remove tax credits now and crime will go through the roof]

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8 hours ago, spygirl said:

Theres nothing clever or smart about Phd - you learn moree n more about less n less.

Phd have limited value outside of academia.

That’s quite a sweeping statement. I work in the oil & gas exploration sector and my PhD has been very valuable. It gave me the opportunity to learn things that I’d say netted me at least 2 jobs earning £80-100k a year that I wouldn’t have gotten otherwise. 

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8 hours ago, spygirl said:

Theres nothing clever or smart about Phd - you learn moree n more about less n less.

Phd have limited value outside of academia.

 

6 hours ago, spygirl said:

How many are good phds?

95% are about avoifing work / real life.

How few phds are quoted in papers, ever, never mind 5 years down the line.

 

5 minutes ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

That’s quite a sweeping statement. I work in the oil & gas exploration sector and my PhD has been very valuable. It gave me the opportunity to learn things that I’d say netted me at least 2 jobs earning £80-100k a year that I wouldn’t have gotten otherwise. 

My guess is it's somewhere between these two extreme views.  I know people who definitely fall into the 95% quoted by spy.  The best example is probably the very famous on ToS "academic portfolio landlord" from Poverty118 site.

I also know some who did get the jobs they couldn't otherwise get, however these mainly stayed in academia. 

Others did end up in reasonable jobs, but nothing that couldn't have been achieved with a better career guidance and a bit of planning, instead of the PhD.

The subset of those who got a job (not at university) and needed the PhD to get it was quite small, but I guess it varies by subject and individual ability.

I definitely would advise anyone considering PhD just because they like a few more years of student life not to do it, or at least be very picky about the exact subject, rather than just look at grant available and whether they will qualify for it.  Kind of similar to deciding whether to do any degree in the first place as well.

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44 minutes ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

That’s quite a sweeping statement. I work in the oil & gas exploration sector and my PhD has been very valuable. It gave me the opportunity to learn things that I’d say netted me at least 2 jobs earning £80-100k a year that I wouldn’t have gotten otherwise. 

To be fair to SG, there are very few jobs like that.  PhD (rather than MSc) is most definitely a ticket into academia.  There are some skills transferable to industry, but they're most often incidental, rather than core to the PhD concept.  I'd suggest that you're (or, rather, the type of PhD you did) is the exception, rather than the rule.

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5 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

 

 

My guess is it's somewhere between these two extreme views.  I know people who definitely fall into the 95% quoted by spy.  The best example is probably the very famous on ToS "academic portfolio landlord" from Poverty118 site.

I also know some who did get the jobs they couldn't otherwise get, however these mainly stayed in academia. 

Others did end up in reasonable jobs, but nothing that couldn't have been achieved with a better career guidance and a bit of planning, instead of the PhD.

The subset of those who got a job (not at university) and needed the PhD to get it was quite small, but I guess it varies by subject and individual ability.

I definitely would advise anyone considering PhD just because they like a few more years of student life not to do it, or at least be very picky about the exact subject, rather than just look at grant available and whether they will qualify for it.  Kind of similar to deciding whether to do any degree in the first place as well.

I had a big response o nthe go, then someome replied to an post casuign firefox to crash ....

My advice for potential Phds is to have a few years between the Bsc/Msc where you get a bit of background rea lwolrd knowledge and sense.

Very few people are going to add muich doing straight into a Phd.

There are also very few job opportunities for Phds - even within HE. Phds are the GE slave class.

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31 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I had a big response o nthe go, then someome replied to an post casuign firefox to crash ....

My advice for potential Phds is to have a few years between the Bsc/Msc where you get a bit of background rea lwolrd knowledge and sense.

Very few people are going to add muich doing straight into a Phd.

There are also very few job opportunities for Phds - even within HE. Phds are the GE slave class.

As someone with experience in both industry and education I think this is pretty sound advice, the only real reason for doing a PhD is a love of the subject matter. If you can afford that luxury do it, but unless your career is in academia not having one won't hold you back...and even having one is not the sure fire to attaining a job in academia!

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3 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

As someone with experience in both industry and education I think this is pretty sound advice, the only real reason for doing a PhD is a love of the subject matter. If you can afford that luxury do it, but unless your career is in academia not having one won't hold you back...and even having one is not the sure fire to attaining a job in academia!

I did a PhD in photonics. Wanted to leave after 2 years as I could see the way post docs got treated....only get the odd 2 year contract but mainly a few months, 1% pay increases as you should be happy to have a job and people losing out not because they were worst at the job nut simply because the funding ran out. 

I'm happy I finished it but I wouldn't recommend it-years in industry are much better for learning. It was interesting but after it I didn't want to do a similar thing forever. It helped with public talking and defending ideas against experts in the field. It makes you not accept arguments because someone's published a paper on it...Bit like going against the HPI wave. 

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9 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Very interesting move.Barrick saying here they think the gold reserves are in Africa,but they dont know how to operate there.Rangold saying we need cash flow outside of Africa to counter the political risk over the years.Given the green stone potential in South Africa ,Botswana and Zimbabwe and the lack of the big companies exposure there we could see a lot more of this.Im not sure its such a good deal for Rangold though.

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9 hours ago, dgul said:

The slow introduction of benefits for everyone has killed this, and other, countries.  It has distorted incentives, changed the industrial dynamic, driven (im)migration and produced a subclass of feckless.  I'd love to set up a cult, where the young are told of this long term deception and go on 'benefits strike' -- refusing to do things that they're driven to do only because of the benefits culture.  Don't buy houses using government incentives, don't work for low wages propped up by tax credits, don't take higher education based on a strange 'not a benefit, promise' student loan.  But they won't do such a thing, as they're all more brainwashed than everyone else -- albeit that everyone has a chance to red-pill as soon as they're far enough away from the education system.

The way that successive governments have each doubled down on welfare-like systems to the extent that the 'honest man' has no choice but to accept some government cash fills me with horror.  Horror with the way that an individual's labour has been devalued in this way; horror in the way that big government has the ability now to manipulate entire populations with a simple 'tax credit' decision.

And horror with the realisation that there is now no way to get rid of this system without extraordinary pain for everyone*.

[* and that's everyone.  eg, remove tax credits now and crime will go through the roof]

Gordon Browns policy was to become father to the nations children through tax credits.The tories backed down from reform,although the two child limit has stopped the massive payouts.The young seem to never question the system at all.Perhaps that is because they have seen plenty rolling in from tax credits and how much their parents made on housing and think they will get the  same.Tax credits have done massive damage to our country and in the longer run to the people who get them.Most end up skint from 50 to 68.

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28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The young seem to never question the system at all.Perhaps that is because they have seen plenty rolling in from tax credits and how much their parents made on housing and think they will get the  same.

I'm pretty sure that's it. Basically, they look at their jobs and their parents jobs and think I'll end up in a better position. God knows when it will dawn on them that this won't be the case. I'm surprised that it's got this far without young people (including me, well 33 so not so young) downing tools due to workimg hard but having nothing but a temporary house over their head. 

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57 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very interesting move.Barrick saying here they think the gold reserves are in Africa,but they dont know how to operate there.Rangold saying we need cash flow outside of Africa to counter the political risk over the years.Given the green stone potential in South Africa ,Botswana and Zimbabwe and the lack of the big companies exposure there we could see a lot more of this.Im not sure its such a good deal for Rangold though.

Based on the shit show that is Acacia (formerly Barrick Africa) you’re probably correct on the part that Barrick don’t know how to operate in Africa.

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30 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Based on the shit show that is Acacia (formerly Barrick Africa) you’re probably correct on the part that Barrick don’t know how to operate in Africa.

Exactly, highly likely Rangold will look to sort out Tanzania.It does look like the big players see Africa as the most likely place to find/exploit big ore bodies going forward.It just shows how backward looking South Africa has been.They had an open goal for their mining companies into Africa,but were too busy forcing up their AISC to a point where their big players like Anglogold pretty much leave.It will be interesting to see if this kicks of a wave of mergers in the industry,or even hostile bids.

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34 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly, highly likely Rangold will look to sort out Tanzania.It does look like the big players see Africa as the most likely place to find/exploit big ore bodies going forward.It just shows how backward looking South Africa has been.They had an open goal for their mining companies into Africa,but were too busy forcing up their AISC to a point where their big players like Anglogold pretty much leave.It will be interesting to see if this kicks of a wave of mergers in the industry,or even hostile bids.

That’s a good point. I’d trust Randgold to come to a better settlement with the Tanzanian government than Barrick.

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3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That’s a good point. I’d trust Randgold to come to a better settlement with the Tanzanian government than Barrick.

Yes Randgold will sort that out pretty quickly i expect.The key in these countries is to get very well connected locals onto the board of the local company and to get the money flowing quickly to the government/locals.Once the government is getting the money it means plenty of people will be taking a cut and less likely to rock the boat.Barrick trying to hold back tax etc was the worst thing they could do.

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3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes Randgold will sort that out pretty quickly i expect.The key in these countries is to get very well connected locals onto the board of the local company and to get the money flowing quickly to the government/locals.Once the government is getting the money it means plenty of people will be taking a cut and less likely to rock the boat.Barrick trying to hold back tax etc was the worst thing they could do.

So, presumably opportunities are:

  • ACA as it'll be sorted out
  • Fresnillo as it'll be the only UK listed large cap PM stock for small investors.

?

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41 minutes ago, dgul said:

So, presumably opportunities are:

  • ACA as it'll be sorted out
  • Fresnillo as it'll be the only UK listed large cap PM stock for small investors.

?

Hard to say,but interesting to see if this kicks off a merger frenzy in the industry or not.See if there is another over the next few months.

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Hello... just wondered what ‘Insto’ is short for? I presume it just means an investment firm of some kind but wondered if there are any specifics to it?

Thank you

*stupid question, maybe

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14 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Hello... just wondered what ‘Insto’ is short for? I presume it just means an investment firm of some kind but wondered if there are any specifics to it?

Thank you

*stupid question, maybe

What's the context?

If I saw it ever as 'insto investors' (or something), then I'd interpret as 'institutional investors', ie, not retail investors.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Hard to say,but interesting to see if this kicks off a merger frenzy in the industry or not.See if there is another over the next few months.

I wasn't really thinking in terms of takeover/merger stuff.

More that today there are two 'low risk' PM stocks for UK investors to easily invest (directly) in.  Soon enough there'll only be one -- so if someone UK is keenish to invest then the money will have to flow to Fresnillo.

[I'd also presume that many that have invested in Randgold will now have to sell (strange EU 'no foreign stocks' rules) -- so if they want to remain directly invested in-sector then Fres is the only option]

[Of course, there's lots of smallcaps and funds, but some might want to still invest directly, and there isn't much choice out there]

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29 minutes ago, dgul said:

What's the context?

If I saw it ever as 'insto investors' (or something), then I'd interpret as 'institutional investors', ie, not retail investors.

Thanks, I think that is the likely definition. The context is a list of major shareholders in a company (all of which are definitely non-retail). Cheers

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

I wasn't really thinking in terms of takeover/merger stuff.

More that today there are two 'low risk' PM stocks for UK investors to easily invest (directly) in.  Soon enough there'll only be one -- so if someone UK is keenish to invest then the money will have to flow to Fresnillo.

[I'd also presume that many that have invested in Randgold will now have to sell (strange EU 'no foreign stocks' rules) -- so if they want to remain directly invested in-sector then Fres is the only option]

[Of course, there's lots of smallcaps and funds, but some might want to still invest directly, and there isn't much choice out there]

The EU rules are only for funds,not individual stocks and most can be bought on the US market or the Canadian market very easily.I like Fresnillo ,but much prefer other PM miners.Randgold might still have a UK listing yet as well.Where Fresnillo might gain if from UK funds who can only invest in UK listed shares.

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19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The EU rules are only for funds,not individual stocks and most can be bought on the US market or the Canadian market very easily.I like Fresnillo ,but much prefer other PM miners.Randgold might still have a UK listing yet as well.Where Fresnillo might gain if from UK funds who can only invest in UK listed shares.

Ah, thanks for the info on shares -- I find it difficult to keep up with what's going on.

(They've announced that a BarriGold will only be listing in NY  & Toronto, but I guess there's plenty of time to change things)

Edited by dgul

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